NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

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West Region
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If you're looking for the toughest region to get through, you've come to the right place. Whichever team is able to come through the West will have earned its trip to Houston for the Final Four. Defending National Champion Kansas leads the way as the top seed in the region, and all top-5 seeds won at least 25 games this season. Regular season Pac-12 champion UCLA will look to go back to the Final Four as it did two years ago, while Gonzaga and Saint Mary's will look to represent the West Coast Conference as the league's only two participants. Defense is abundant in this region as well, with nine teams from the West in KenPom's top-20 defensive efficiency metric nationally.

The power at the top is going to make it a tough task for a Cinderella to make a lot of noise, but never say never. No. 12 VCU features one of the best defenses in the country and a nine-game winning streak, while No. 13 Iona has won 14 in a row. Arkansas and Illinois also can't be overlooked in the 8/9 matchup to give a reeling Jayhawks squad a run for their money, with both teams showing flashes this season while Illinois has impressive wins over UCLA and Texas.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Kansas - The Jayhawks enter the tournament on a much different note than a year ago, having just been handed a 20-point defeat by Texas in the Big 12 Tournament final. Even so, they did win the conference's regular season crown and are led by one of the best players in the country in Jalen Wilson, who enters on the heels of five straight 20-point performances.

No. 2 UCLA - The Bruins were looking like one of the best teams in the country but took a devastating loss when Jaylen Clark suffered an Achilles injury in the regular season finale and was deemed out for the season. Still, UCLA made the Pac-12 final, where they narrowly lost to Arizona -- a good sign especially since starting center Adem Bona missed the game with a shoulder injury. Assuming he'll be back, the Bruins are good enough to make a deep run, but the margin for error isn't what it was two weeks ago.

No 3. Gonzaga - Gonzaga had a down year by its high standards, losing a conference home game for the first time since 2018, but still was able to share the WCC regular season with Saint Mary's. The Bulldogs seem to be playing their best basketball at the right time, winning eight games in a row, including a 26-point drubbing over the Gaels in the WCC Tournament final.

No. 4 Connecticut - UConn looked to be the class of the Big East early on but went through its share of ups and downs to finish tied for fourth in the regular season before losing to Marquette in the tournament semis. The Huskies have a high ceiling and are capable of making a deep run, in large part due to center Adama Sanogo, who was one of the most efficient scorers and rebounders in the conference.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 13 Iona - Rick Pitino's squad has made the tournament for the second time in his three years at the helm, and the Gaels will look to duplicate the success that last year's MAAC champion had when Saint Peter's made the Elite Eight. The Gaels will have a tough challenge in the first round against UConn, who was ranked No. 1 in the country at one point after starting 14-0. Nevertheless, this group will pose a test for the Huskies, as Iona has a trio of scorers that each average over 15 ppg.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 6 TCU - For a team that was peaking a month and a half ago at 17-5 and 6-3 in the difficult Big-12, TCU stumbled down the stretch to win only four of their final 11 games. Starting center Eddie Lampkin left the team for a personal matter, missing the last three games, and appears unlikely to play in the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs will face the winner of Arizona St. and Nevada, which I feel is a bit of a disadvantage playing a team that will have momentum and will be able to get some nerves out of the way. I don't expect the Horned Frogs to make the second week, which will be a disappointing result for a team that had much higher expectations not too long ago. 

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No 10. Boise St vs. No. 7 Northwestern - Northwestern is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2017 after finishing in a share for second of the Big Ten regular season, but the Wildcats are going to have their hands full with the Broncos, who went 13-5 in a difficult Mountain West Conference that received four bids. The heart of this team is its defense, which ranks 14th in KenPom's efficiency metric, and that's going to be a challenge for a Northwestern team that has struggled to find reliable scoring outside of Boo Buie.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Walter Clayton Jr., Iona

Clayton leads Iona in scoring this season at 16.9 ppg and in steals at 1.9 per game, and he's been one of the most efficient players in the country with over two threes per game at a 43 percent clip and 95 percent from the charity stripe. The 6-2 shooting guard has scored 26+ points three times and has even posted a pair of double-doubles. It'll be interesting to see if he can elevate his game against a tough UConn defense, considering the Gaels haven't faced elite competition this season. 

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Kansas - Kansas is an obvious choice to make it to the second week, but a potential second-round matchup with Arkansas would be a challenge, as Eric Musselman's squad upset top-seeded Gonzaga last year and has made back-to-back Elite Eight appearances. Kevin McCullar missed the Big 12 title game, and his presence was missed. The Jayhawks need him back at full strength, as well as projected lottery pick Gradey Dick to play more consistently, to make another title run.

No. 5 Saint Mary's - I think a lot of people will write off the Gaels after a disastrous loss to Gonzaga, but I think that's a mistake. They get a first-round matchup with VCU, and Saint Mary's is better on both ends of the floor. Aidan Mahaney and Logan Johnson lead a strong backcourt, and a potential meeting with UConn might be the best second-round matchup of the tournament.

No. 3 Gonzaga - I like Gonzaga to get past Bryce Drew's Grand Canyon squad, who had a good season, winning a much-improved Western Athletic Conference. From there, I anticipate the Zags will play TCU or Nevada, but neither is talented enough on the offensive end to keep up with them. This was about as good of a draw as they could have hoped for. 

No. 2 UCLA - UCLA gets an easy first-round game against the weakest No. 15 seed in the tournament in UNC-Asheville, who lost by 34 to Arkansas in its only tough non-conference matchup this season. Neither Boise St. or Northwestern have enough offensive firepower to pull the upset, especially considering the Bruins did an excellent job all season of beating the teams they was supposed to beat. 

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 3 Gonzaga - I think the Zags have a terrific draw to the Sweet 16, where they'll likely get a showdown against UCLA. I just don't feel confident picking the Bruins to win that matchup without their third leading scorer and best defender in Clark. I could see Gonzaga facing Kansas, Saint Mary's or UConn in the Elite Eight, but ultimately, I think they are playing too well for any of them. In the end, Drew Timme's dominance, and the emergence of Julian Strawther late in the year as a legitimate No. 2 scoring option, will propel the Zags to the Final Four.