This article is part of our CFL Picks series.
CFL Betting: CFL Bets and Props for Division Semi-Finals
We have a two-game Division Semi-Final slate on tap Saturday, with four teams that know each other quite well facing off for the right to face the Alouettes and Blue Bombers for the East and West Division crowns, respectively.
Read on for a look at which Division Semi-Final betting scenarios catch my eye on DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ottawa Redblacks at Toronto Argonauts Best Bets (Saturday, Nov. 2, 3:00 p.m. ET)
The Argonauts scored a CFL-high 514 points this season and forged an impressive 7-2 home record, with those two data points serving as a foundation for my prognosis for the East Division Semi-Final. The fact they're facing a Redblacks team that is the only one in the postseason field with a negative point differential – -45 to be exact – certainly helps Toronto's outlook, as does Ottawa's 2-7 road record this past regular season.
In the most recent meeting between the teams, the Argos outlasted Ottawa by a 38-31 score in the Week 20 matchup. Toronto's Chad Kelly, who's one of several key Argonauts who benefited from getting Week 21 off, threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns. Kelly was even more impressive in the Week 14 loss to Ottawa on the road, racking up a season-high 463 yards and three scores in that contest.
Redblacks quarterback Dru Brown enjoyed a breakout season in his own right and closed it out with 845 passing yards and a 7:2 TD:INT in his last two regular-season games, including a 400-yard four-touchdown performance against Toronto in Week 20. He'll also have top target Justin Hardy back in the fold to pair with the explosive Kalil Pimpleton, with the duo a serious threat to an Argos defense that allowed 296.8 passing yards per game and a league-high 36 completions of 30+ yards.
This should be another highly entertaining game between the two division rivals, one where both teams pile up their share of points. Nevertheless, I'm backing the home team to emerge victorious in a hard-fought battle due to its ability to shut down the run and a quarterback with more experience in a high-stakes environment in Kelly. I'm going with the alternate spread for the primary wager, but one that combines an outright win with a solid day for one of Kelly's top targets, Makai Polk (61-1,024-7 line in regular season), is also in play as a SGP.
CFL Picks for Redblacks at Argonauts
- Argonauts Alt. Spread -4.5 (-138 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- SGP: Argonauts moneyline and Makai Polk 60+ receiving yards (+100 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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B.C. Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (Saturday, Nov. 2, 6:30 p.m. ET)
This battle between two teams with plenty of explosive offensive weapons and strong run defenses has a very good chance of turning into a high-scoring affair. The two highly capable veteran quarterbacks, Vernon Adams Jr. and Trevor Harris, know exactly how to exploit vulnerable secondaries and will likely be tasked with plenty considering each squad's running backs could have trouble making inroads on the ground.
Adams opened the season in absolutely memorable fashion, going on a remarkable run of games that included a 451-yard performance against these same Roughriders in a Week 6 home win. Adams ultimately ceded the starting job to Nathan Rourke when he returned from his attempt to make an NFL team, but he returned to the top role for the Lions' regular-season finale and threw for 385 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 39 rushing yards and another score in a 27-3 win over the Alouettes.
Harris is coming into this game with plenty of momentum in his own right. After overcoming a midseason knee injury, Harris closed out the campaign by throwing for between 271 and 358 yards in five of the last six games. He also threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns while completing 83.3 percent of his passes in a Week 19 matchup against the Lions.
The Roughriders finished the regular season surrendering 294.3 passing yards per game and a league-high 440 completions, including 29 completions of 30+ yards. B.C. allowed 278.3 passing yards per contest and a league-high 73.8 percent completion rate in its own right, along with a league-high 107.2 opponent passer efficiency rating.
Conversely, each team gave up under 100 rushing yards per game and under 4.9 yards per carry, ranking both within the top three in the latter category. The likelihood of heavy pass volume is therefore high, and with that typically comes plenty of points from each offense as well as potential strip sacks and pick-sixes that also add to the scoreboard.
With these two teams very evenly matched, I like the chances of the Lions keeping things competitive, Adams having a strong performance and the Over hitting.
CFL Picks for Lions at Roughriders
- Over 50 points (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- SGP: Lions Alt. Spread -5.5 and Vernon Adams Jr. 275+ passing yards (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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CFL Division Semi-Finals Best Bets Recap
- Argonauts Alt. Spread -4.5 (-138 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- SGP: Argonauts moneyline and Makai Polk 60+ receiving yards (+100 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Lions-Roughriders Over 50 points (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- SGP: Lions Alt. Spread -5.5 and Vernon Adams Jr. 275+ passing yards (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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