College Football Best Ball Journal, April Edition

This article is part of our College Football Best Ball Journal series.

The brain trust that got together for the mock a few weeks ago has come together to do a Best Ball once a month through the rest of the offseason to help develop the best ADP possible by the time most leagues start drafting. We finished the April edition in the last few days and I will offer my thoughts on the draft here in this space. 

It was a 26-round beast, but it was necessary to go that deep into the player pool considering the best-ball format that precludes in-season moves. With that, it felt like we entered the Wild Wild West by around Round 16, meaning that the last 10 rounds can be pretty informative as to which analysts are believers (or non-believers depending on how big the slide) in certain players or teams. Below you'll find the draft cut up into five-round chunks with my analysis of each pick along the way. 

My Picks

Kenny Gainwell, RB, Memphis at 1.6

Chatarius Atwell, WR, Louisville at 2.7

Asher O'Hara, QB, Middle Tennessee at 3.6

Journey Brown, RB, Penn State at 4.7

David Bell, WR, Purdue at 5.6

In my last article, I lamented not going after Kenneth Gainwell even though I was happy with taking Jaret Patterson at No. 4 overall. Again, Patterson is great, but Gainwell is rare. He has an established path to being the top overall back in the game this fall. His numbers as a freshman were rare. Only four players had at least 1,000 rushing yards in addition to 50 targets. As you can see, Gainwell was in good company there and he was the only underclassman of that bunch. With so much of Memphis' key players coming back, this could be an offensive juggernaut. I want the guy who can push for 300 touches in that offense. 

I definitely paid full price to get Atwell in the second round and I get there are some concerns with going after him at that stage of the draft. He's got a very slight frame -- we list him at 5-foot-9 and 153 pounds -- and it'll be tough to replicate last year's efficiency. Among receivers with 100 or more targets, only LSU's Ja'Marr Chase averaged more YPT (14.13) than Atwell's 12.0. My counter to that is that Atwell, and Louisville as a whole, was able to put together such a successful 2019 despite so much evidence suggesting that it would be a disastrous season in "Year Zero" under Scott Satterfield. Bobby Petrino left that program in shambles and Satterfield guided it to an eight-win season with a bowl victory over an SEC team. So basically what I'm saying is that if Louisville can turn around to that degree in just a few months under Satterfield, imagine what Year Two might look like. And Atwell stands to be a big part of that. I'm buying the Louisville hype. 

This was the second time in two drafts I got Asher O'Hara. A quarterback with the potential to throw for 3,000 yards and run for another 1,000 is always going to have my stamp of approval.

A ton of quarterbacks started to go in the fourth round, so I wanted to zig zag after already addressing that position in the third. Journey Brown might've still been available in the fifth but I was okay with chasing his upside. Yes he has a relatively small market share (25 percent) compared to other running backs in this range, but few match his explosiveness. Clemson's Travis Etienne is the only returning running back with at least 125 attempts who averaged more yards per carry (7.8) than Brown's 6.9 on 128 rushes. Check out this quote from coach Ja'Juan Seider this week: 

I'll buy in on that even if it's a bit of an overpay on draft day. 

My fifth-round pick ended up being a self-fulfilling prophecy from my first draft writeup where I argued that while Bell is a fifth-round talent, paying for him at that price feels steep considering that Rondale Moore is probably (hopefully) going to be playing more than four games this year. I fell for my own trap. 

Rounds 6-10

My Picks

Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU at 6.7

Kylen Granson, TE, SMU at 7.6

Sean Clifford, QB, Penn State at 8.7

Jamale Carothers, RB, Navy at 9.6

Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan at 10.7

Analysis

It's unrealistic to expect LSU to repeat last year's fireworks without Burrow and Brady, but I don't think that offense is going to disappear, either. There's too much talent, and Marshall is near the top of that list. A foot injury last year cost him three games and yet he still had more touchdowns (13) than games played (12). He also averaged a convincing 10.1 YPT and 14.6 YPR. At 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, Marshall profiles as a capable Robin to Ja'Marr Chase's Bat Man in the LSU offense. 

Granson was on my FOMO list from last draft and I wasn't going to go 0-for-2 on him. He is the TE1 for this year and it'll be hard to convince me otherwise, even with a pretty strong group behind him rounding out the Top 5. I don't want to get 100 percent exposure to Granson in these Best Ball drafts as the offseason continues, but a few shares is the goal. His dominance after Reggie Roberson got hurt in Week 9 -- 39 targets, 27 catches, 442 yards, 11.3 YPT, 7 TD -- is just too much to ignore. 

I feel weird about the Clifford pick. There's something to be said for stacking offenses in Best Ball formats, but QB/RB usually isn't the path. Perhaps I overreacted to the QB run that started unfolding after the Granson pick, with Dillon Gabriel, Kedon Slovis, Ian Book and Adrian Martinez -- all players I would've considered in the 8th -- coming off the board between picks. I feel alright about Clifford; he was better on a per-game basis than Dustin Crum, Adrian Martinez, and Kedon Slovis last year. Penn State also hired Kirk Ciarrocca as the offensive coordinator, and we know what he got out of Tanner Morgan at Minnesota last year. But maybe buying into new systems isn't the smart play this year with spring practices all-but wiped out across the country. We will see. One thing I know is that I was probably bidding against myself in the ninth when it came to Clifford.

Carothers is interesting. He was an unknown coming into last year who burst onto the scene in Week 7 and tore it up with 98 rushed for 712 yards and 14 touchdowns over the last eight games regular season contests. But cases like that can happen at Navy, and that's what concerns me a bit. Who's to say that another relative unknown gets the hot hand when Carothers comes out for a drive and never looks back? You can't for sure. But Carothers' flourish to end 2019 should afford him the starting role to open the year and his production suggests he can reward Navy for its faith in him. 

Skyy Moore was my next pick and one of my favorites of the entire draft. The more I've dug into the research prepping for these drafts, the more bullish I am on this Western Michigan offense. Quarterback Jon Wassink is gone and so is LaVante Bellamy, but a lot of talent remains, starting with Moore. He burst onto the scene as a freshman, catching 51 of 86 targets for 802 yards and three touchdowns. Moore's 9.3 YPT was 1.7 better than the team's total YPA and his catch rate (59.3) was right in line with the team's completion rate of 59.6 percent. Three touchdowns on 51 catches might mean that there was some bad luck that gets corrected this year, too, if he has a similar or greater target volume. I'm in on Moore. 

Round 11-15

My Picks

Clemson Defense at 11.6

Jyaire Shorter, WR, North Texas at 12.7

O'Shaan Allison, RB, Ohio at 13.6

Zonovan Knight, RB, North Carolina State at 14.7

Mycah Pittman, WR, Oregon at 15.6

Analysis

Hand up, I forgot to toggle off the "Fill Available Positions" option on my Autodraft settings, and I paid the price by taking a defense in the 11th round. I became more and more okay with it later in the draft but it still felt like a missed opportunity to grab a running back like John Emery Jr. or Tre Harbison. Oh well. At least I can bank on my defense forcing tons of turnovers and maybe notching a shutout or two. 

Shorter was someone I had in my queue at the end of the last draft but never got around to selecting and he ultimately went undrafted. At 12.7, he felt like a strong addition to my receiving corps that also added some nice value. He led all (redshirt) freshmen in YPT among players with at least 40 targets (11.83) and he racked up nine touchdowns. Now, there's some regression risk here. The per-target efficiency could dip without Mason Fine at quarterback and nine touchdowns on 40 targets is unsustainable. But at the same time, that many touchdowns can't be a total fluke, right? Shorter is 6-2, 215 with legit downfield ability. Even if the efficiency falls off a bit, the projected target increase with Michael Lawrence and Rico Bussey gone should help smooth things out. 

O'Shaan Allison was another guy i had in my queue for the last draft that I never got around to taking because we ran out of rounds. I tend to chase explosiveness when it comes to my skill guys, and Allison offers that in a big way. He averaged 6.3 YPC over 138 attempts last year, which ranked 11th among running backs with at least 125 carries. He doesn't have sole ownership of the Bobcat backfield with De'Montre Tuggle and Julian Ross still there, but Nathan Rourke's departure should open up some goal line carries and Allison could see his touchdowns tick up. 

Knight isn't a pick I'm all that excited about in this format because he's not a great ceiling guy, but I am sold on the floor. I also had to play the bye week game at running back with my first three backs all having off-weeks in Week 6. I'm reasonably convinced that Knight is the best back on NC State and should see the bulk of the carries and goal line work, even if Jordan Houston and Ricky Person get their share as well. I was looking for someone who could produce a decent stat line and keep things moving on the week where I'm thin at running back. Knight fits that bill.

Mycah Pittman is a pick I'm really excited about. He's a different type of receiver from his brother, Michael, but he gets it done at 5-11 and 198 pounds. Pittman was hurt to start his freshman season, which put him behind the eight ball. He still managed to catch 18 of 28 targets for 227 yards (8.1 YPT) and two scores. Those numbers are fine but not eye-popping, and a look at the depth chart might lead you to believe he's the third option in this receiving corps. If you dig deeper into recruiting profiles, though, you see Pittman is the most talented receiver on Oregon's roster and can overtake a Johnny Johnson or Jaylen Redd as the No.1 for the Ducks.

 Rounds 16-20

My Picks

DK Billingsley, RB, Troy at 16.7

Kyle Philips, WR, UCLA at 17.6

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama at 18.7

Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina 19.6

Marshon Ford, TE, Louisville at 20.7

Analysis

Make it 2-for-2 on Billingsley shares thus far, and this time I got him a lot later than I did in the first go-round. I nabbed Billinglsley at 11.4 in that one, so getting him five rounds later here gives me a read on how the rest of the industry views him right now. Maybe I'm viewing him through rose-colored glasses or maybe I'm missing something. What I see is a player atop the depth chart who is also easily the most talented of Troy's backfield. He's the only Troy back who had more than 100 carries last year and he was the only one who averaged more than 4.5 YPC. B.J. Smith is coming back but is coming off a serious knee injury, so there's no guarantee he takes the top job back. Maybe Billingsley at 11.4 was a reach but I like him a lot in the 16th.

I wanted to start rounding out my receiving corps with this cluster of picks, and Philips presented a nice value with some PPR upside. His 91 targets were among the most by a freshman* in 2019, and he caught 60 of them for 681 yards and five touchdowns. He should be the No.1 wideout again for Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is entering his third year as the starter under Chip Kelly. Even a repeat of last year's numbers would be fine compensation for a 17th-round investment when it comes to Philips. I'll take that catch rate and target volume all day. 

This next pick is my first dip into the freshman class from this year. Usually my recruitnik tendencies would have me much more cavalier about attacking this class in my drafts as I view it as a blindspot that other owners might have that I don't. But a big part of identifying instant impact freshman hinges on early enrollment and going through spring practice. Young was enrolled but obviously didn't have the opportunity to push Mac Jones for the starting job this spring, so that'll make it tougher for him to win the job come fall. Young's talent still gives him an outside chance of doing that at some point this season, even if it's not Week 1. And when (if?) Young takes over, I I believe he can be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback from that point forward. He's that good and the talent around him is special. 

Michael Carter is on the other end of the excitement spectrum from Young. Again, I wanted to build running back depth at this stage and patch together a competent group of fill-ins for when my studs are on bye. Carter is part of a committee and will likely be splitting the rushing workload with Williams almost 50/50. But he's also an established and effective runner, averaging 6.0 YPC over 358 career rushes. And the touchdown Karma might be due to swing back in his favor -- he has five rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons after racking up eight on 97 rushes as a freshman. Here's hoping.

Rounding out this section, I wanted to find one more tight end before we really reached the bottom of the barrel at that position. I was initially thinking of going Tre' McKitty, the ex-Florida State tight end who is a grad transfer at Georgia. But the new system install being delayed by everything going on steered me off that move and made me look elsewhere. Ford was a great find, though. His seven touchdowns tied for third among tight ends last season and he averaged 10.8 YPT. It's an admittedly small sample of 27 targets and converting over 25 percent of his targets into touchdowns isn't sustainable. But you don't have that kind of success by accident. Ford might only top out at 40 targets but if he can keep that catch rate and continue to be a staple in the red zone, this pick should work out. 

Rounds 21-26

My Picks

James Cook, RB, Georgia at 21.6

James Maye, WR, Miami (OH) at 22.7

Kaleb Eleby, QB, Western Michigan at 23.6

T.J. Chase, WR, Florida Atlantic at 24.7

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech at 25.6

Boston College Defense at 26.7

Analysis

I can't quit James Cook no matter how much I try. We have two years of him struggling to carve out any sort of consistent role despite having star-level talent. That said -- and yes, this is a small sample and a lot of the work has come in blowouts against bad teams --  72 carries for 472 yards (6.6 YPC) in two years plus 26 catches for 221 yards on 27 targets is killer efficiency. With D'Andre Swift gone I think Zamir White gets the first crack at the starting job, but I doubt Georgia gives him a heavy workload given the injury history. It's now or never for Cook, and in the 21st round I was okay with taking that risk. 

James Maye stood out to me when I was researching for the last draft and I was happy to take a late-round flier here. He was really impressive as a freshman, leading the MAC in YPT (14.46) among receivers with at least 30 targets. Jack Sorenson is still the likely No.1 target in this offense but Maye is the best big-play threat for Miami (OH) and his target volume should tick up as a sophomore. 

Eleby might be a staple of my end-game strategy in these Best Ball drafts. I think the Western Michigan offense is being slept on for this year considering the system along with the returning talent at receiver. Eleby had a decent cameo as Western Michigan's starter as a freshman in 2018, taking over for the injured Jon Wassink. He completed 62.6 percent of his passes at 7.4 YPA to go with four touchdowns and three picks. He's not much of a runner but he also punched in three rushing scores in that span. With added time in the system and getting to enter the season with as The Guy should translate to success in 2020.

Chase is a former blue-chip guy who will be immediately eligible at FAU, where the Owls are replacing a ton of receiving production. Even though he never broke through at Clemson, Chase could have a nice second act to his career down in Boca.

With my second to last pick I took one more true freshman who I see having instant success, and that's Jahmyr Gibbs. He is arguably the crown jewel of Georgia Tech's recruiting class and is likely the best running back on the roster already. Tech had to fight of the likes of Florida and others heading into February's signing day to secure his services. I'm less worried about a learning curve for a running back, so the lack of spring practice shouldn't hurt Gibbs' chances of being an impact player for Georgia Tech right away. Outside of MarShawn Lloyd, Gibbs might be my favorite freshman running back for 2020. 

I had to finish up with a defense, so I perused the Week 9 slate when Clemson will be on a bye. And wouldn't you know it, Boston College hosts Holy Cross that week. Good enough for me.