College Football Best Ball Strategy: Identifying the Best ADP Values

College Football Best Ball Strategy: Identifying the Best ADP Values

Last week, Underdog Fantasy launched a new College Football Best Ball contest that offers $100,000 in prizes, including a top prize of $20,000, for a modest $10 entry fee. With over 6,500 entries in, we have sufficient data to identify some of the most overvalued and undervalued players. 

In this article, we'll focus on the most undervalued players by position. You should pounce on these players at their current average draft position. 

Undervalued QBs

Taylen Green, Arkansas
Underdog ADP: 110.6

Arkansas was one of the more disappointing teams in 2023, as QB KJ Jefferson took a step back statistically, both as a passer and rusher, and star RB Rocket Sanders missed much of the season due to injury. Now Jefferson has moved on to UCF, and Sanders left for South Carolina, making room for transfers QB Taylen Green (Boise State) and RB Ja'Quinden Jackson (Utah) to take over as the undisputed starters.

Jackson should be a strong fantasy contributor, but Green is the player who offers great value in Best Ball drafts. Green is a dual-threat quarterback who we project to be among the top eight Power 4 quarterbacks in rushing yards. His running stats give him a high fantasy floor, while the passing game has solid potential, with this Arkansas squad returning its top seven pass-catchers from 2023.

Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
Underdog ADP: 186.2

New Head Coach Curt Cignetti got to work right away on rebuilding an offense that ranked 103rd in scoring in 2023. Indiana will have an all-new running back room, as Kaelon Black, Ty Son Lawton and Solomon Vanhorse followed Cignetti over from James Madison, while Justice Ellison (Wake Forest) and Elijah Green (UNC) also transferred in. Top JMU wide receiver Elijah Sarratt and tight end Zach Horton also followed their coach to Bloomington and will team up with returning top receiver Donaven McCulley and Texas Tech transfer Myles Price, giving Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke a variety of playmakers.

While the lack of continuity is its own challenge, Rourke and the Hoosiers will benefit from having a very favorable schedule through the first six weeks and one of the easiest schedules overall by power conference standards.

Undervalued RBs

Jahiem White, West Virginia
Underdog ADP: 60.7

Some will hesitate to draft White because of the returning presence of RB CJ Donaldson, who led the team in carries last year, but by season's end it appeared that White had passed Donaldson on the depth chart. The two will surely share carries along with dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene, but finishing off the regular season with 441 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs in two games is reason enough to love White, especially in best ball.

Woody Marks, USC
Underdog ADP: 66

With last season's leading rushers MarShawn Lloyd and Austin Jones both gone to the NFL, USC filled a huge need by adding Mississippi State's leading rusher in Marks through the transfer portal. The only thing standing between Marks and a workhorse role in Lincoln Riley's powerful offense is a pair of players who barely saw the field as freshmen in 2023. Both are four-star recruits who should get opportunities, but Marks is the only proven player in this backfield. He's also a threat in the passing game, as evidenced by his 83-reception, 502-receiving yard season in 2021.

Jordan Waters, NC State
Underdog ADP: 142.9

It was a good offseason for NC State, as the coaching staff managed to hang onto top playmaker Kevin Concepcion while recruiting some of the top players available in the transfer portal, including QB Grayson McCall, TE Justin Joly and Waters.

In 2023, the Wolfpack relied too heavily on Concepcion, as he finished with more receiving yards than the next three wide receivers combined and added more rushing yards than any of the team's running backs. That shouldn't be the case again with McCall under center and Waters in the backfield. We project Waters to approach 1,000 yards from scrimmage and double-digit touchdowns, making him a much safer choice (with upside) than many of the running backs being selected ahead of him.

Undervalued WRs

Josh Kelly, Texas Tech
Underdog ADP: 88.5

For the third straight season, Texas Tech battled through injuries and inconsistency at the quarterback position, where three different players got multiple starts. But Behren Morton is back as the top QB and is said to be 100 percent recovered from the injury that had limited him. 

After transferring in from Washington State, Kelly is expected to be Morton's top target. He finished the 2023 season on a high note with 448 yards and 3 TDs over the final four games, showing off his explosive potential.

Joseph Manjack, Houston
Underdog ADP: 220.2

The bad news: the new coaching staff in Houston has shown past tendencies to lean more heavily on the run game. Houston is not the same offensive juggernaut that we saw in 2022 when Clayton Tune was throwing passes to Tank Dell. 

The good news: this is the year 2024 in the Big 12 Conference, and Houston's poor defense is likely to force them to have to pass to keep up. 2023 leading receiver Samuel Brown transferred to Miami, vacating 98 targets and leaving Manjack behind as Donovan Smith's top returning playmaker. If healthy, I foresee 80-plus targets for Manjack this season.

Kaden Prather, Maryland
Underdog ADP: 238.7

Maryland may not be a national power, but they've put together the offensive coaching staff that you'd only expect at the top programs in the country. Head Coach Michael Locksley, Offensive Coordinator/Wide Receivers Coach Josh Gattis and Associate Head Coach/Co-Offensive Coordinator/Tight Ends Coach Kevin Sumlin have some of the most impressive resumes in the country, and they are entering their second season together.

Transfer QB MJ Morris will be tasked with replacing the production of three-year starter Taulia Tagovailoa. One thing that stood out about Morris in his four starts for NC State last year is that he fed his top receiver with over 10 targets per game. While Tai Felton should see enough opportunities to be a solid late-round pick, too. We're projecting that Prather will emerge as the top target in Maryland, making him a top sleeper pick.

Undervalued TEs

Jake Briningstool, Clemson
Underdog ADP: 119.3

There are many differing opinions about who the top fantasy tight ends will be in 2024, which is leading to good value at the position throughout the draft. While others are spending valuable draft assets on Oronde Gadsden, Brant Kuithe, and Luke Lachey, who are all coming back from severe injuries, I like the value of Briningstool, whose 2023 season receptions and targets were second-highest among returning tight ends.

Both QB Cade Klubnik and Briningstool are back for their third season together at Clemson, and they clearly have a strong rapport, as Briningstool led the team in targets. Expect more of the same this year, plus an extra touchdown or two.

Justin Joly, NC State
Underdog ADP: 121.2

I'll give you one guess as to who is first in the country in receptions and targets among returning tight ends.

Yes, it was Joly, and although he'll have more competition for targets at NC State than he had at UConn, he should also have a lot more opportunities to find the end zone with Grayson McCall throwing him passes. We expect Joly to more than double his touchdown total while amassing over 500 yards again as the second option in the passing game behind Kevin Concepcion.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Steve
Steve has served several roles with RotoWire, starting as an intern working on breaking news and analysis, moving to NBA beat writer and (years later) taking over as "marketing guy" and multi-sport contributor. He's also the undisputed best bowler at RotoWire, with multiple 800 series and 300 games. He will be thrilled when fantasy bowling becomes a thing someday.
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