College Football DFS: Camellia Bowl (Georgia State vs. Ball State) Plays

The Camellia Bowl is the only postseason game on the docket for Christmas Day, so we'll be analyzing the best picks for the Single Game/Showdown contest formats on DraftKings and FanDuel.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Georgia State (-3.5) vs. Ball State O/U: 49.5

The Georgia State Panthers can cement their winningest season in program history if they can get past the Cardinals Saturday.  It was a rocky road to bowl eligibility for both teams, especially for the Panthers, who began their season with a 1-4 record but rallied back with two win streaks.  The Cardinals started their season with a win, but three consecutive losses made them an unlikely bowl contender.

Georgia State's defense is one of the primary reasons they are rated the favorite in this matchup. The Panthers' defense limited their final seven opponents to 20 points per game after an abysmal beginning to the season where they were blown out consistently. They'll face a Ball State offense that has struggled with Time of Possession as well as putting points on the board. They were held to 20 points or less five times during the regular season.  As a result, you're likely to see more Panthers than Cardinals in my endorsements, although both formats require activation from both teams. The interesting wrinkle for the Panthers is the loss of their offensive coordinator for this game. Brad Glenn left the program to take a coordinator job at Virginia Tech. One can assume that the team will stick to Glenn's game plan, but they lack Glenn's method of preparation for Ball State going to this game.

As we make our picks, keep in mind the slight differences between the formats on DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings has one CAPTAIN pick (1,5x multiplier) followed by FIVE UTIL picks, with an average salary allotment of $8,333 per player. FanDuel also has a 1.5x multiplier with their MVP slot and FOUR FLEX POSITIONS, with an average salary allotment of $12,000 per player. The final major difference is a significant one - the prices increase 1.5x for a CAPTAIN on DraftKings, while the FanDuel price is static across both positions.

For DraftKings, the key strategic element for these contests is making FP-per-point calculations for each player with an eye toward the dollar differential between a CPTN and UTIlL player. Deciding on a CPTN player becomes more apparent once you can deduce the number of points you lose at 1x compared to the overall gain per dollar you accrue in the CPTN spot. The concept of 'Guess the most productive player' is undoubtedly true on FanDuel, where the prices are static, but you end up with some pretty interesting results if you calculate the cost-benefit analysis of players with two different salaries and different multipliers. Of course, DraftKings provides you with our projections for this contest, but it's always a good idea to tweak them according to your own research.

BUILD SUMMARY

I have very few combinations in my projections that involve utilizing both quarterbacks. The FD sacrifice you need for this play results in a point-per-dollar loss that is unrecoverable in most cases. Conversely, about 60 percent of my builds have a QB as my MVP Captain, with other utility players taking up the other 40 percent. A few builds do include a kicker, which we will specify below. Due to the abundance of budget options, I think the four CPTN/MVP picks below are all pretty solid, as you can easily afford them compared to what's there in the UTIL/FLEX positions. They are also all valid for those UTIL/FLEX spots, which is why both salaries are included for DraftKings.

CAPTAIN/MVP PICKS

QB Darren Grainger, Georgia State (DK CPTN $16,800, DK UTIL $11,200, FD $15,00)

The Furman transfer took over for Cornelius Brown earlier in the season and played well until the final few weeks, where he turned in some shaky performances. Grainger will likely carry the full load Saturday, although there's always a slight possibility that the team could elect to make an unexpected switch to Brown, considering Grainger's poor play to close out the season. If Grainger is confirmed and good to go, I think he'll be the superior option over Drew Plitt (DK CPTN $16,500, DK UTIL $11,000, FD $16,000), who is more of a mistake-free offensive manager than a top-flite fantasy producer. The only site you should consider Plitt is on DraftKings, where he is $300 less than Grainger. FanDuel has him as the top pick of the slate at 16k, which is entirely too expensive for him.

Carson Steele, Ball State (DK CPTN $13,500, DK UTIL $9,000 FD $12,500)

Although there is definitely some value in Georgia State's running game, their scheme is hamstrung by a committee approach.  That's not the case for Steele, who has the top job pretty much to himself, with only Will Jones providing competition for touches. It will be incumbent on Steele to open up the passing game with his backfield skills. While the Cardinals have had trouble in the red zone (more on that later), Steele should rack up significant yardage without much difficulty. As I frequently mention in showdown strategy articles, you have to slightly downgrade running backs on DraftKings due to the 1.0 PPR bonus for receivers (compared to 0.75 PPR on FanDuel). Steele has caught only nine passes on the season, so it's something to consider when picking a 1.5 Multiplier.

WR Justin Hall, Ball State (DK CPTN $15,600, DK UTIL $10,400), FD $14,000)

Hall is my top non-QB pick for the multiplier. His 11 touchdowns rank him #1 in that category in the player pool, and his 61 receptions also lead the pack. There is truly no comparable receiver in terms of seasonal averages, although his meager totals in the final two games make him less appealing if you're concerned with recency. His production dip was due to an injury that forced him out of Week 12 and severely limited him in Weeks 11 and 13. He currently has to injury tag, a sign that this issue has resolved itself.

RB Tucker Gregg, Georgia State (DK CTPN $9,300, DK UTIL $6,200, FD $12,000)

Gregg's salary turners the point-differential race for DraftKings on its head as it will be tough to beat the point-per-dollar difference if Gregg is the top back as expected. While he is the higher-variance CPTN pick, he's also the cheapest but exponentially better on DraftKings. As we mentioned, this is a RBBC spot, and Jamyest Williams (DK CPTN $8,400, DK UTIL $5,600, FD $11,000) did the bulk of his production in the final two games, outdoing Gregg by a wide margin and eventually equaling his TD total (nine). You could make an argument for Williams as a 1.5 multiplier, but spending down for a CPTN/MVP isn't as necessary due to the number of alternative UTIL budget calls. You can diversify with Gregg or Williams, but they were more prevalent in my builds in UTIL/FLEX spots. Gregg deserves mention because he found his way into the multiplier in about 320 percent of my builds on DraftKings.

UTIL/FLEX PLAYS

WR Jayshon Jackson, Ball State (DK UTIL $6,800, FD $11,500)

Jackson makes sense as my UTIL play as he represents most of what Austin Hall doesn't catch in the Ball State offense. You could also make an argument for Yo'Heinz Tyler (DK UTIL $8,000, FD $10,000) as a more affordable option for FanDuel, but Jackson is just behind Austin Hall with 57 receptions on the season, compared to only 44 catches for Tyler.  Tyler has two mire touchdowns on his resume, but the Cardinals' red-zone difficulties compel me to disregard a minute TD differential. 

WR Jamari Thrash, Georgia State (DK UTIL $3,600, FD $8,000)

Grainger and the Panthers are a DFS frustration because they like to spread the ball around, but it does allow for some lower prices at wideout. Cornelius McCoy (DK UTIL $7,400, FD $6,500) and Sam Pinckney (DK UTIL $8,800, FD $9,000) are both at reasonable salaries, but Thrash's UTIL price on DraftKings is hard to fade. I would be more inclined to pivot to Pinckney or McCoy in a one-QB build, but I think Thrash is almost a requirement if you plan on stacking two QBs if you are trying to get all of the above CPTN picks into one lineup on DraftKings. You'll notice McCoy carries a cheaper FD salary than Thrash, so he is the more likely picot for a stars-and-scrubs build on that site. While we are on the topic of Panther receivers, Aubry Payne (DK UTIL $1,600, FD $8,000) may be a hail-mary, high-variance play, but he has a nose for the end zone with five touchdowns on only 17 catches.

K Jacob Lewis, Ball State (DK UTIL $3,800)

You can only find kickers on DraftKings, but this is the spot I mentioned above. The Cardinals have made only 38 forays into the red zone over 12 games, a paltry number. While they tend to get the job done when they get there, Lewis has been able to bail them out with accuracy in the 40 to 49-yard range when they falter. Considering the strength of the Panthers' defense, the Cardinals may end up sputtering in the end zone more often, and Lewis could also help then if they don't get inside the 20. 

Also consider: Will Jones, Ball State (DK UTIL $3,400, FD $7,400), Roger Carter, Georgia State (DK UTIL $3,000, FD $7,000)