College Football DFS: Night Slate: Week 2

DraftKings has elected to split the Week 2 slate into two parts. It's an interesting slate that mixes some blowouts with potentially competitive battles.  Let's get right to it!

SLATE OVERVIEW

Missouri State @ Oklahoma (-42.5) O/U: 66.5

Clemson @ Wake Forest (+34.5) O/U: 60

UTEP @ Texas (-43) O/U: 58.5

Houston Baptist @ Texas Tech (-38.5) O/U: 74.5

Coastal Carolina @ Kansas (-6.5) O/U: 56

Western Kentucky @ Louisville (-12.5) O/U: 57

(odds subject to change)

Before we tackle these games, I have to say I'm a bit disappointed in the offerings available for both slates on Saturday.  With all of the excitement surrounding the NFL, both sites seem to have lowered or eliminated GPP's at the lower price levels.  I suppose the assumption is that they will have to assume a massive overlay in these contests if they put too many GPPs out there. Although there are a few that are affordable, I'm going to move a lot of my action to head-to-heads and double-ups at about 90% allotment. Usually, my bankroll on any given slate is limited to about 75-80 percent cash.

Now, onto the games.  We've got a lot of lopsided matchups, which is typical as the powerhouse teams front-load their schedules with smaller schools with inferior programs. I think the most intriguing game on the slate is the LOU/WKU game.  Both teams enter the season with question marks - Louisville has a new head coach, and the Hilltoppers are beginning the season with a new QB out of the transfer portal. Western Kentucky has a much-heralded defense led by DeAngelo Malone, who was Conference USA's Defensive Player of the Year in 2019. The Hilltoppers will need to shut down Louisville's offense and control time of possession to beat the spread, and the Over/Under is high enough to make this a potential scoring engine for this slate. Conversely, you've got to be careful with Clemson in their first game. With Jamie Newman and most of the Demon Deacons' deadly passing attack out of Winston-Salem, this game could turn into a leisurely summer scrimmage for the Tigers.  Dabo Swinney sat their starters by the end of third quarter more than 80% of the time last season, so you might be better off looking for value here instead of going for their elite starters.

QUARTERBACK

For starters, we have to eliminate Spencer Rattler ($8,800) and Tanner Mordecai ($7,700) for the Sooners. This QB battle was even until Mordecai suffered an unspecified injury, and I would expect that Lincoln Riley will pull Rattler earlier in this game to give Mordecai a second look.  This game will probably be over by halftime anyway, and we aren't too inclined to put too much focus on the blowout games.

Alan Bowman, Texas Tech ($7,300) vs. Houston Baptist

Don't let the lopsided line fool you.  This game should be fun to watch.  The Red Raiders finally have Bowman back after a fractured collarbone that ended his 2019 campaign.  Injuries have plagued Bowman throughout his career, and if he stays healthy, he should put up big numbers in 2020. The Red Raiders were 11th nationally in total offense, but their defense left a lot to be desired. I'm inclined to take the Huskies and the points after watching Bailey Zappe throw for 480 yards and three touchdowns against North Texas, but one reason for the wide spread is Houston Baptist's defense, which allowed North Texas to rack up 700 yards of total offense. To put it simply, both of these teams are going to pass - a lot. I think there's value to be had in the WR corps of both teams with Bowman leading the slate as one of the evening's best passing performances.

Tyrrell Pigrome, Western Kentucky ($5,700) @ Louisville

I'm a bit perplexed at Pigrome's price, as he falls below the backups of some of the elite teams.  The former Maryland Terrapin plays his first game as a Hilltopper on Saturday with a fairly impressive resume behind him.  As a backup in College Park, he played mostly as a change-of-pace signal-caller who could confound defenses with his running speed out of the pocket, and a decent throwing arm that could keep defenses guessing.  There's no doubt that coach Tyson Helton and his staff have spent the offseason revamping their playbook to lean on Pigrome's strengths, so we're likely to see a lot of play-action and pistol schemes against the Cardinals.  I'm not making him my primary QB, but I'll expose myself to a good percentage of him in the S-Flex slot.

QB Punt Play - Taisun Phommachanh, Clemson ($6,500) @ Wake Forest

The Tigers will likely give the backup about the same number of minutes as Chase Brice had last year.  His talent landed him a starting spot with Duke this season, and the Tigers' depth of talent at the position is equally strong, if not more so.  D.J. Uiagalelei is also int the fold, and the Clemson fan base has already anointed him as the heir apparent to Trevor Lawrence, but Phommachanh has the advantage of an extra year with the system and will likely get the first shot in what should be a long string of blowout games for the Tigers. Keep in mind that this pick is purely speculative and depends on many variables for it to hit, but if you're looking for a contrarian GPP pick, it makes sense to look at the backup QBs in these blowout games.

Also consider: Bailey Zappe, Houston Baptist ($5,100) vs.  Texas Tech

RUNNING BACK

Travis Etienne, Clemson ($7,600) @ Wake Forest

Etienne didn't extend his stay at Clemson to sit on the sidelines. Clemson's weak schedule damages the stat line of the elite guys, but Etienne somehow manages to put four quarter's worth of output in half the time. Even though Clemson is heralded as 'Wide Receiver U.' the loss of Justyn Ross (back) and the departure of Tee Higgins leave the Tigers with an experience gap at wide receiver.  Although they'll all be game-ready, I'd expect Clemson to lean on their star running back a bit more this season, and at least for the first half, there will be little motivation to pass the ball against Wake Forest.  I also wouldn't sleep on Lyn-J Dixon ($4,800) as a sleeper pick.  He could end up as the primary ball-carrier in the second half.

Keaontay Ingram, Texas ($7,200) vs. UTEP

Ingram compiled almost 1100 yards of total offense and 10 touchdowns last season, which would have been considerably higher it not for an ankle injury that he suffered versus Baylor last November. Roschon Johnson ($5,600) could eat into his output if the game gets out of hand, but I like Ingram as a solid cash game option.

Pooka Williams, Jr., Kansas ($6,300) vs. Coastal Carolina

The Jayhawks are ready to exact revenge after the 12-7 loss they suffered to the Chanticleers last year.  Williams has rushed for over 1,000 yards in both of his seasons with Kansas, and with the Jayhawks in the midst of a quarterback battle, Williams is likely to get a massive workload. The only question mark for Williams is an inexperienced offensive line that lost Hakeem Adeniji to the NFL, but if he can get past Coastal Carolina's rush defense, he should enjoy a productive evening.

WIDE RECEIVER

Tutu Atwell, Louisville ($7,500) vs. Western Kentucky

Atwell had a stellar 2019 season and finished as one of the most prolific wideouts in the country.  He caught 69 passes for 1,272 yards and 12 touchdowns and should figure to be Micale Cunningham's go-to guy once again. Cunningham's 2019 was a mixed bag but with a year of maturation under his belt, he'll be able to go through his reads with more efficiency and get it to Atwell often.

Erik Ezukanma, Texas Tech ($6,600)  vs. Houston Baptist

The talented sophomore wideout will get a lot of exposure from me as a stack with Alan Bowman in a game that should be an all-out aerial battle on both sides of the ball. He finished red- hot last season with a touchdown and at least seven targets and a touchdown in three straight games, and I expect he'll be Bowman's primary target.

E.J. Williams, Clemson ($4,700) @ Wake Forest

While a lot of the public money will go to Joe Ngata ($6,500), Amari Rodgers ($7,200) and wildcard Cornell Powell ($5,400), I've got my eye on Williams to be the surprise wideout this season.  The staff has compared him to Justyn Ross (they went to the same HS), and at 6-3, he's one of the tallest targets in the receiving corps. At only 190, he's swifter than most of his counterparts and staked a claim in the offense in camp while Ngata and Frank Ladson were sidelined.  I expect Williams to start getting snaps as early as the second quarter. If you doubt this value pick, take a look at his highlight video, and you'll see what I mean.

Ben Ratzlaff, Houston Baptist ($4,600) @ Texas Tech

We've already mentioned how effective the Huskies' passing game was against North Texas.  While the Red Raiders are a stiffer opponent, you can bet that they'll be doing the most damage through the air.  Both Ratzlaff and Jerreth Sterns ($4,000) enjoyed superb games last week, but I give a slight tip to Ratzlaff since he caught more of his targets.