College Football DFS: Thursday Slate Week 1

RotoWire wants to keep all your bases covered when it comes to DFS football at the college level, so if you've yet to dive into this end of the pool, there's no better time than the present! 

Today we are going to hit the Thursday slate for Week 1, and also introduce you to the college format, as it's a little different than what you're used to in the NFL arena.  To begin, I think the weekday slates are a great way to get acclimated to how the college game functions, as there are fewer games to wade through.  Although both FanDuel and DraftKings trim the fields, the abundant number of Saturday games can be a bit overwhelming for even the most seasoned DFS players.  Thursday and Friday games don't have this problem, and the game load is similar to what you might find on an NFL Sunday.

Roster construction is the primary difference between NFL DFS and CFB DFS gameplay.  For starters, there is no kicker or defense slot on either FanDuel or DraftKings. On both sites, there is a SUPER FLEX option, which means you can use a player at ANY offensive position, including quarterback.  DraftKings diverges from FanDuel a bit by adding an additional standard FLEX position, and both sites require a base roster of 1 QB, 2 RB, and 3 WR (there is also no TE slot in CFB). In future weeks, I'll supply a link to this article so I won't have to repeat these important rule differences.

As we tackle the six-game slate (seven for DK) for Thursday, I feel it's important to bring up an issue that DFS players will struggle with all season. I like to call this predicament the Juggernaut Factor, and I'll use Clemson as a primary example, since they play their first game of the year against Georgia Tech on Thursday.

With the exception of Texas A&M, South Carolina and perhaps Syracuse, the Tigers are going to be a 4-5 touchdown favorite in every game they play. The same will be true of Alabama, and any other Power 5 team that plays a tiny school.  As a result, you're only going to get three quarters out of guys like Trevor Lawrence or Travis Etienne once they've built up a big lead.  Now, there's no question that they will get their share of snaps -- Etienne led the country with 24 TDs, so he will still produce.  However, if you are electing to play large-field GPPs as opposed to cash contests, you need to get familiar with who the second and third-string guys are on these powerhouse teams, especially when they play a weak opponent (or in the case of Clemson and Alabama, pretty much anybody).  As is the case with any other sport, Vegas is an excellent guide for us. Games with tighter spreads will guarantee more snaps for starters, and higher Over/Unders indicate more offensive production. Since I have the luxury of a small slate, I will begin each article with the Vegas odds for each game:

UCLA at Cincinnati (-3) O/U: 58

Florida A&M at UCF O/U:47.5

Georgia Tech at Clemson  (-37) O/U: 60

Florida International at Tulane (-3) O/U: 58

Texas State at Texas A&M (33.5) O/U: 56.5

Utah (-6) at BYU O/U: 48.5

Kent at Arizona State (-24.5) O/U: 60 (DraftKings only)

So, as you can see, several Juggernaut games this week.  The O/Us for the close games are competitive, so I will try to find an edge there in GPP games, while I'll lean more toward guaranteed producers in the blowout games with my cash lineups.  I'll also fade all the underdogs in the blowout contests (FA&M, GT, TXST, KENT).

Quarterback

The industry will likely fade both Trevor Lawrence (9K DK, 10K FD), and Kellen Mond (8K DK, 10.3K FD), and for good reason.  These games will get out of hand fairly quickly and while these guys are unquestionably the top talents under center on Thursday, they aren't going to yield the kind of production we need at this price. I'd consider these guys contrarian plays, but you're paying a premium that I don't think is necessary to bink this slate.

Zach Wilson, BYU ($6,100 DK, $8,200 FD) vs. Utah

Utah is my favorite to sweep the PAC-12, but this Beehive State turf war should be more of a barn-burner than most expect.  Although Wilson is coming off shoulder surgery, he showed no ill effects in camp and looks ready to regain his freshman form.  He turned heads with a 317-yard, four touchdown performance in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl last season and also went a perfect 18-for-18 in that contest. I don't think the Cougars will be able to get much done with the running attack, but Wilson should have some success against the Utes' less-experienced linebacker corps.  Expect a lot of converted short passes down the middle.

Justin McMillan, Tulane ($5,700 DK, $9,000 FD) vs. Florida International

I especially like McMillan's price on DraftKings here.  The LSU transfer had a tepid nine-game campaign in his first season with the Green Wave, but I think another offseason under coach Willie Fritz's system will help his chances.  Despite some less-than-stellar numbers, he knows how to win – with McMillan under center, Tulane went 5-1 to close out the season and won a bowl game.  He's also known to escape the pocket and run the ball well, so that should pad his numbers. He isn't the most talented guy on the slate, but he'll be low-owned and a big bargain on DraftKings.

Running Back

If I were to spend up anywhere, it would probably be with Travis Etienne, but if you really want to take advantage of this blowout, my money would be on Lyn-J Dixon ($6,300 DK, $7,800 FD).  Dixon is a huge talent and crushed many tired defenses in the closing minutes last season, and I'm confident that Dabo is going to rest Etienne a bit more with Texas A&M looming next week.  Dixon is one of my favorite slate dark-horses on Thursday.

Eno Benjamin, Arizona State ($8,800 DK) vs. Kent 

This is only a guy you can use on DraftKings, but he's a safe (albeit higher-priced) option in my projections.  He finished last season third in the country with 1.524 yards and 15 touchdowns, and only Jonathan Taylor carried the ball more in 2018.  If you factor in true freshman Jayden Daniels under center, you can surmise that ASU will lean on Benjamin early and often while Daniels gets his feet wet.

Zack Moss, Utah($7,200 DK, $9,200 FD) at BYU  

 I was a bit suspect of Moss' chances after Andy Ludwig came over from Vanderbilt to take the OC job at Utah. My worries were assuaged upon learning that Ludwig plans on handing the rock to Moss around 25 times per game.  Moss suffered a season-ending knee injury last season, but he appears to be 100 percent and ready to go. I expect the Utes to give BYU fits at multiple positions, but Moss poses the biggest threat to the Cougars.

Wide Receiver

Once again, Wideout University (Clemson) is always in play, but I have to regrettably fade guys like Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins.  I wouldn't sleep on freshman Frank Ladson ($4,500 DK, $6,100 FD), however.  The 4-Star recruit out of Miami dazzled in the Spring Game and I expect to see a lot of him, possibly as early as the second quarter.

Jalen McCleskey, Tulane ($6,200 DK, $7,800 FD) vs. Florida International

With only Darnell Mooney returning as a bona-fide starter, the Oklahoma State transfer is poised to make a huge impact and I think he'll finish the season as Tulane's top receiver. He caught 73 balls for 812 yards and seven touchdowns for the Cowboys last season, and has this year to make an impression on NFL scouts.  I don't think he could have picked a better scenario for himself.  I expect a lot from McCleskey in what should be a close game.

Rashad Medaris, Cincinnati ($6,600 DK, $7,900 FD) vs. UCLA

I wanted to stick with the close games for my WR targets, but it's hard to give a full-throated endorsement for Medaris based on his metrics.  It's more of an instinct call for me. UCLA's secondary isn't outstanding, and I think the Bearcats will have decent success through the air. Medaris is their #1 guy after Kahlil Lewis' departure.

That wraps it up for the Thursday slate. Be sure to come back over to RotoWire to get our picks for the Friday and Saturday CFB contests!