College Football Picks: CFB Week 14 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on November 27, 2024

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Chris' Picks

I submitted this column earlier than I have been this season, and when I woke up to watch Gameday Saturday morning, I knew I was cooked. The Miami/Wake total rose four points, as did the Ole Miss spread. I was on the early common thing, which rarely proves successful. Texas A&M was a toss-up, a fun game, and a tough loss.

I'm getting old, and time is flying; I can't believe we're already at the end of the regular season. It hasn't been the best year for me, and I apologize for that. I have to be better. Confidence is shaken but not broken, and we've still got a few games left to turn this around. Week 14 has a ton of games overall, so let's see if we can find the right pack of five to start a hot streak.

Navy (+2.5) at East Carolina (Friday)

To be frank, I liked this more before ECU elevated their interim coach Blake Harrell to the full-time role, as he has been rolling, winning four straight, all by at least a touchdown. It's come with heavy rushing success, going for at least 222 yards weekly. But it's come against Temple, FAU, Tulsa, and North Texas, who are a combined 13-31. Navy has lost three of four, but those losses were to Notre Dame, Tulane, and USF. It's a line that's rising, hopefully in my favor, and presents as a buying opportunity on the Midshipmen, who aren't nearly as bad as their current results.

Kentucky (+4) vs. Louisville

Literally, nothing about this line makes sense. It doesn't pass a statistical test or an eye test. Louisville is more than adequate defensively, and their offense hasn't been slowed down, while Kentucky is elite defensively but can't score a lick. So when it's so obvious, I'll go the other way. Kentucky has won five straight in this rivalry, with the closest outcome being a touchdown. This is arguably the best defense the Cardinals have seen, and I look for Kentucky to make Tyler Shough uncomfortable while relying on freshman RB Jamarion Wilcox, who's averaged 6.7 ypc over the last three, to slow this down. Be sure to allow this line to rise as high as possible, it's already up over a point from Sunday.

Under 57.0 California at SMU SMU

Someone knows something far greater than I do with this number. Cal ranks 29th in points allowed at 20.7 ppg, and SMU 30th at 21.0 ppg. Those averages give us over a two-touchdown cushion. Yes, that's negated some by the Mustangs' potent offense. The under is just 4-7 in SMU's 11 games, but this is also the third-highest total they've been offered. The under is 6-3-2 in the Bears outings. Both teams are stout against the run and porous against the pass, with the exception of generating interceptions. Give me some drive-ending mistakes to keep this under the total while the Mustangs still cruise to an easy win.

Syracuse (+11) vs. Miami

I'm not sure I actually believe this pick, but loyal readers know I'm a die-hard Miami fan, and I'm happy to set Saturday up for me in a ca n't-lose situation. Either I win money, or the 'Canes are heading to the playoffs. It's a hurdle they've been searching for 20+ years and have faltered on the few opportunities they've had in that span. We know Kyle McCord is going to chuck it at will; Syracuse leads the nation in passing attempts with 528, 47 more than anyone else. One of two things will happen Saturday. McCord is a statue, and the return to health of Akheem Mesidor gets Miami 5+ sacks and turnovers. Or McCord feasts on this weak secondary, keeping it close at worse or winning it late.

LSU (-6) vs. Oklahoma

I've got too many underdogs in this column for my liking; that's not how my brain normally operates. LSU hasn't faired well of late, losing three of their last four, but if I've learned anything this season, it's that winning on the road in the SEC is virtually impossible. LSU has the offensive advantage, and Oklahoma has the defense. But I don't think the Tigers will make the mistakes Alabama made last week, which will limit the Sooners' ability to score. Oklahoma is averaging just 16.4 ppg in conference play, so LSU needs three touchdowns.

Last week: 2-3; Season 30-33-2

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Greg's Picks

It finally happened, the immaculate week, 5-0! Now, before I get into the details, I should mention that anytime you have a perfect week, you're bound to have backed into some good luck, and that's exactly what happened this past week.

The first game was a classic back-door cover from UConn. That's not to say they the Huskies were well out of it all day, no, they were within range all game but fell out late, only to score a late TD and cover the number. Iowa was my second win, and this was pretty easy as the Hawkeyes went ahead early and didn't look back. The next one is where Lady Luck favored me. You probably know the story already, but I'll recap quickly. Illinois was driving late in the game for the go-ahead score when they found themselves facing a 4th and long or an extremely long FG, at least for a college kicker. The Illini set up for the FG before they stopped the play, but after Rutgers called a timeout, the kicker gave it a shot and missed badly. Having seen this, Illinois decided to go for it, try for the first down, and then clock it and try for a shorter FG. Illinois proceeded to complete a pass for the first down, but the play didn't end there, they ended up scoring, from 40+ yards with less than five seconds left. Amazing.

Okay, that was a lot on one game, so I'll keep it brief on the final two. Minnesota was an easy cover as the Gophers nearly won outright, and the OSU-Texas Tech game went well over the total.

Colorado (-16.5) vs. Oklahoma State

Over (65) Colorado vs. Oklahoma State

It's my first double-up of the season, only because I'm not sure if OSU found something with their new QB, Maealiuaki Smith. Smith and company scored 48 points this past week, but that was against one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Colorado is improved on defense, but the Buffaloes are still vulnerable from time to time. If OSU continues to roll on offense, this game goes over the total with ease, if not…then Colorado covers with ease. The only guarantee here is that Shedeur Sanders and the Buffalos' offense are going to put up a ton of yards and points. OSU has one of the worst pass defenses in the country, as we all witnessed this past week when the Cowboys surrendered 56 points. Colorado is going to score at least 40 points this week.

Vanderbilt (+11) vs. Tennessee

After an atrocious performance from nearly every team on the playoff bubble this past week, the Vols are suddenly back in the mix, which means that it's their turn to lay an egg. That's sort of a joke, but not entirely. There may be something to teams choking when they need a win, especially at the college level. How else do you explain all these SEC teams losing this past week when all they had to do was beat lesser teams? As for the matchup here, this is a rivalry game, so it was always going to be tough for Tennessee, but Vandy has also taken on a new identity as a pesky team that doesn't go down without a fight. Tennessee is the better team here, but so was Alabama, and so was Texas, and LSU, and Missouri and…you get the point: Vandy plays its best against stiff competition.

Kansas (-1.5) at Baylor

Baylor is 7-4 this season, and the trend is very clear; the Bears beat bad teams and lose to good ones. Now, is Kansas considered a good team? It should be. Sure, the Jayhawks are 5-6, but they've beaten top-20 teams in four consecutive weeks! They are the opposite of Baylor; they beat good teams and lose to bad ones. Okay, that's simplifying it too much. Kansas was expected to be a good team entering this season, but something went wrong early, and it took two months to get back on track. They're back on track now and looking to extend their season with a win this week. As long as they stay focused, they should pick up another win here.

Over (67.5) Syracuse vs. Miami

Speaking of trends, when Miami faces a competent offense, it gives up points. The Hurricanes have a habit of getting into shootouts, and considering who they are facing this week, I can't see how this game doesn't turn into a shootout. The numbers tell you that each team is decent on defense, and they might be, but the offenses here, on both sides, are light years ahead of the defenses. There could be 1000 air yards in this game between Cam Ward and Kyle McCord.

Last Week: 5-0-0; Season 33-32-0

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Jeff's Picks

Although Texas didn't give me the solid win I expected, I still finished with an excellent 4-1 record last week, led by correct picks for Citadel, Arizona State, and Notre Dame; the under for Boise State/Wyoming also came through despite the weather's vast improvement over the course of the day. Rivalry week is always tricky, but we're going to aim for a strong finish to the regular season.

Under 55.5 Memphis Memphis vs. Tulane Tulane

We are going to start with this one on Thanksgiving, and the slow pace of both teams, coupled with some weather concerns, are compelling me to take the Under here. Gusty winds should wreak havoc on special teams and the passing game, and although Tulane is favored, they play with one of the slowest paces in the country, and Memphis' pace isn't much better. Both defenses have shown an ability to contain the opposition's strong suits, and the turnover margins for both teams are excellent.

TCU -3.5 @ Cincinnati

TCU passes almost 60 percent of the time and has improved in the run game as well. Conversely, the Bearcats rank 65th in opponent passing yards per game, and most of their offensive metrics have fallen off. I believe this spread is narrow due to the bowl implications in play for Cincinnati, and while you can make an argument for playing the intangibles, TCU has Cincinnati outmatched in almost every category. Cincy's bowl aspirations end here.

BYU -12.5 @ Houston

I doubt Houston will suddenly wake up with an offense and pose a challenge. The battle of the Cougars will fall to BYU's side. Unlike Cincy's intangibles, the Cougars have the Big 12 title at stake, and even though their CFP outlook is bleak, a Big 12 title berth is a world away from the team's projections at the beginning of the season. Jake Retzlaff is a solid quarterback, and he has a host of offensive weapons led by LJ Martin. A Great day by Houston's defense is the only way they can get under this number.

Notre Dame -7.5 @ USC

Will Lincoln Riley ever come to the realization that the Trojans should run the ball more? Woody Marks has saved the Trojans numerous times, but the team still wants to air it out. While the switch to Jayden Maiava has resulted in two decent victories, the Irish's defense is unforgiving against the pass, with arguably the best secondary in the country. While you could run on the Irish earlier in the season, last week's game against Army proved that running the ball against them is a stiff test as well. Notre Dame's defense will be the difference-maker here, as I think both teams can move the ball. USC's offense is pretty evenly matched with Notre Dame, but the Irish will simply have more scoring opportunities.

Texas -5 @ Texas A&M

Quinn Ewers showed up in Texas' latest injury report, but using Arch Manning might work in Texas' favor. Manning is more mobile, and the Aggies may have already worked up a Ewers game plan. I doubt the injury is serious, but I wouldn't put it past Steve Sarkisian to use a little magic to make Ewers absent so he can rest before the playoffs. Even though College Station presents a hostile environment where you might have to work off visual cues from the sideline, I think Texas's defense will dictate the outcome of this game. They'll restrict Marcel Reed's dual-threat ability and force him to pick a side, which will probably be a dare to beat the Longhorns through the air. Anything can happen in this intense rivalry game, but I'm fairly confident that Texas can cover.

Last Week: 4-1-0

Season: 35-30-0

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