This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Florida State vs. Duke
Get in on the college football action for 2024 with a BetMGM bonus code featuring a Bonus Bet offer of up to $1,500! RotoWire has plenty of college football betting tools and info to keep you in the loop this season. From the latest college football odds to college football futures and Heisman odds, we have you covered.
5-1 Duke hosts a disappointing 1-5 Florida State side Friday night in Durham. The Seminoles have been a profitable side to fade for bettors, as they're 2-4 ATS with the over hitting just once. Those are pretty staggering trends. Duke is 3-2-1 ATS with the over cashing just twice.
Florida State vs. Duke Betting Odds for Week 8
Spread: Duke -3 (-110 BetMGM); Florida State +3.5 (-124 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 41.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 42 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Duke -148 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Florida State +130 (BetMGM)
This game is a betting unicorn; we've seen essentially no line movement all week with the spread or the total. Specifically, the over/under has literally not moved all week. Is it really that sharp of a number, or is equal money being placed on both sides or worst of all, are bettors just staying away and aren't interested?
The spread has danced from 3 to 3.5, sliding up and down. FanDuel is currently the only spot where you're getting that extra half-point, which is obviously valuable in an expected low-scoring game.
Curiously, without any spread movement, Duke opened at (-155), jumped as high as (-175), and has now settled in the (-150) range, depending on the book. FSU opened at (+130), peaked at (+145), and was as low as (+128). I'm admittedly not looking at the percentage of bets placed or money on either side, but it just feels that with a low scoring expectancy, most folks are viewing this as a pick-the-winner game. There's enough juice to somewhat justify a Duke moneyline bet, while maybe if you're backing the 'Noles, it's all the way, and point cushion be darned.
Be sure to dig into the latest sportsbook promos available at the best online sportsbooks to get the most bang for your buck this college football season. The Caesars Sportsbook promo code gets college football fans a first bet offer worth up to $1,000.
Florida State vs. Duke Betting Picks for Week 8
We can talk all we want about FSU's season-long offensive issues, and they're valid. The Seminoles haven't scored more than 21 points all season and have been held in the teens five times. But the defense has been equally underwhelming, ranking 74th against the pass and 110th against the run, while Duke ranks 10th and 79th, respectively.
But is Duke in a spot to exploit FSU's defense? I'd argue no. They're 60th in pass offense and 112th in rushing, which is the more concerning number given the Noles' struggles there.
Both teams are off of a bye, and I find that to be a bigger advantage for Florida State. That gave Brock Glenn two weeks of additional first-team reps, and he showed well in his first start against a more physical Clemson defense. And I'm also willing to overlook the Seminoles' woeful rushing performance last time out, given the matchup. Duke's strength of schedule is middling at best. It's now or never for Florida State to build some momentum and finish the season around .500, and if they can't muster it off a bye week, they will be bet against every week from here on out.
Florida State vs. Duke Expert Pick: Florida State +3.5 (-124) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Join in on the fun during the 2024 college football season with a FanDuel Sportsbook promo code featuring $300 in Bonus Bets plus three free months of NBA League Pass!
Florida State vs. Duke Predictions for Week 8
I have absolutely no feel for this total or the game, for that matter. It stands to reason that if FSU wins, it will be because of their improving offense.
Both sides are off a bye, so you can feel some confidence in Manny Diaz's ability to scheme up some pressures on Glenn. However, he's also a quarterback making his fourth career start, so there isn't much to go on regarding his perceived weaknesses.
At the end of the day, it's Florida State catching points against Duke. What would this spread have been in August? They have one common opponent in Georgia Tech. Duke lost by 10 and scored 14 points, FSU lost by three and scored 21. If the spread slides under a field goal, just go all the way in on the 'Noles moneyline. They rally here.
Florida State 26-17
