This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Indiana vs. Ohio State
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The Indiana Hoosiers travel to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in what is likely a play-in game for the Big Ten Championship. Two months ago, this game didn't appear to have much importance, but after a perfect start from Indiana, there is suddenly a lot riding on this one. Can Indiana shake decades of disappointment on the football field and capture the biggest win in program history, or does Ohio State display dominance and put the Hoosiers back in their place?
Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Odds for Week 13
Spread: Ohio State -10.5 (Caesars Sportsbook); Indiana +10.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Under 53 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Over 52.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Ohio State -375 (BetMGM), Indiana +320 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The line opened at OSU -11.5, and it moved closer to the magic number of 14 before sinking again. Either way, the double-digit spread suggests the public has not bought into the Hoosiers yet.
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Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Picks for Week 13
As mentioned earlier, this matchup was not expected to be anything other than a standard OSU win a couple of months ago, but Indiana just refuses to lose. Now, the Hoosiers find themselves in a very unfamiliar spot, with not only the Big Ten Championship on the radar but also the CFP.
The question, of course, is, can they pull off the win? Obviously, if you think they can win, then they can cover, but how likely is either scenario this week? To start, let's dig into the numbers.
As you might imagine, both teams are very solid on paper, but what might come as a surprise is that both teams are led by their defenses. Indiana is first in the nation in yards allowed on the ground and 21st vs. the pass, while OSU is 4th against the run and 6th against the pass.
The offenses are solid of course, but not quite at the level of the defenses. Indiana is 23rd through the air and 48th on the ground, while OSU is 31st through the air and 40th on the ground.
One thing we have to factor into these numbers, however, is the strength of schedule, and that's where Ohio State has a huge advantage. I won't get into specifics because there are several different sites that rank the schedules, but let's just say the gap is very wide. A quick glance at the Hoosiers schedule and you can see they haven't played anyone of note. To their credit, however, they are thumping these bad teams for the most part, with the exception of Michigan two weeks ago. Ohio State, meanwhile, has had to deal with Penn State and Oregon, and while it lost to Oregon, that game came down to the wire.
What this game really boils down to is whether the Hoosiers are ready for this spot. Two weeks ago, they appeared ready for a big spot as they raced out to a big lead against Michigan, but they nearly blew that game, and that was against a team with little to offer on offense. This test is much different. Ohio State is better than Michigan in all facets, and this game is on the road.
As much as I like the Hoosier story this season, I think the run comes to an end here. This is simply too much of a jump in class to handle and the fact that none of the players on Indiana have played in a game of this magnitude is only going to make it more difficult. I don't believe The Buckeyes aren't a juggernaut this season, but they've already played two really big games, and they won't have any problem handling the pressure of this one. Indiana won't get embarrassed, but I don't think the Hoosiers cover either.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Expert Pick: Ohio State -10.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Indiana vs. Ohio State Predictions for Week 13
As mentioned earlier, Indiana might have trouble adjusting to the scale of this game, and if that's the case, we're going to see it early. Ohio State will likely come out swinging, and if they connect, it will be up to Indiana to respond immediately, or this could get out of hand. The Hoosier offense is no joke, they will get theirs at some point, but I have a feeling it will be a scenario where they get behind and are simply just trying to match scores the rest of the way, never getting within arms reach.
Ohio State 37 - Indiana 20
