This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Memphis vs. Tulane
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Two 9-2 teams battle on Thanksgiving evening in the Bayou as Memphis travels to Tulane. The Green Wave have clinched their spot in the AAC Championship game, but moving up to 17th in the playoff rankings, they have bigger ambitions. Tulane is an equal 9-2 ATS, having covered in four straight, while the over has hit at a 6-5 rate, alternating in each of their last eight games, with last week's going under. Memphis, meanwhile, is 5-5-1 ATS, just 1-3-1 ATS over their last five, while the over has hit at a 5-6 rate but 4-1 over the last five.
Memphis vs. Tulane Betting Odds for Week 14
Spread: Tulane -13.5 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook); Memphis +14 (-110 BetMGM)
Total: Over 55.0 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 55.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Moneyline: Tulane -485 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Memphis +450 (BetMGM)
Unless you're feeling frisky and willing to predict a straight Tigers upset, the moneyline can largely be ignored; there's no value at all on the Green Wave, though you can find a number around (-480) at some secondary books.
The spread is trending upward, opening Sunday at (-12.5). Given that, it seems probable that by kickoff, we'll have a host of (-14) lines rather than it coming back down. It's an important number to track as it sits squarely on the two-torque mark and can clearly flip a win and a loss.
The total has been pretty steady all week, dancing between 55.5 and 56.5 throughout, but it has settled in the 55-55.5 range. It's another important number, as 56.0 is a clean eight total touchdowns.
The weather does not look like it will factor prominently, with warm temperatures and rain in the morning and cooling in the evening, with moderate double-digit winds possible.
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Memphis vs. Tulane Betting Picks for Week 14
I rewrote this section of the column some three-plus times, having a hard time articulating angles on both sides of the ball. Tulane has everything to play for, with the potential to host the AAC Championship, while style points could help them in a playoff push. Memphis is playing for pride, which I am banking on showing after they were picked to win the conference in the preseason.
Offensively, Memphis is more balanced, while Tulane prefers a heavier run focus. That could be a challenge against a Tigers unit that allows just 3.8 ypc. Conversely, Memphis' pass defense is the worst unit on the field, ranking 109th while allowing Navy's option attack to throw for 205 yards against them. Tulane can look for some early shot plays to soften things up up front, then lean on the rush. But I'm worried about Tulane's strength of schedule. They lost competitively to two Power 4 teams, and while an unbeaten conference record is impressive, they've beaten up on conference bottom feeders, with their best wins being USF and Navy. This will be a big uptick in competition where a switch can't simply be flicked.
I don't believe Tulane is on upset alert. There's too much at stake, and they're at home. Mark me down for a slight lean towards the over, as I think this will be back and forth. That also goes with the trend of rotating over and unders in Tulane's last eight. But in the end, Memphis won't be embarrassed, potentially keeping this within one score.
Memphis vs. Tulane Expert Pick: Memphis +14 (-110 at BetMGM
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Memphis vs. Tulane Predictions for Week 14
We should see a high-level quarterback play Thursday. Tulane's Darian Mensah has an impressive 18:4 TD:INT ratio, while Memphis' Seth Henigan sits at 21:6. Mensah's play will be paramount, as he's thrown for more than 200 yards in conference just three times. That's because Tulane is averaging 247.1 ypg on the ground, a number I'd be shocked if they get to here, as only Navy and North Texas have gone for more than 120 yards against this Tigers front.
Ultimately, I see Tulane opening up their passing game and beating Memphis, but not without some pushback from the Tigers in Henigan, RB Mario Anderson and 6-foot-3 WR Roc Taylor, who can make plays vertically. Tulane survives a scare.
Tulane 35-27
