This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Best Bets: Miami vs. Florida
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Miami vs. Florida Betting Odds for Week 1
Spread: Miami -2.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook); Florida +2.5 (Even, Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 53.5 (Over, -115 ESPN BET); 54.5 (Under, -115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Miami -135 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Florida +120 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Miami vs. Florida Betting Picks for Week 1
The Miami Hurricanes begin a new era in South Florida, and their fanbase love to remind you every season that "The U is back". While this team has repeatedly entered seasons with a ton of hype, it has fallen off during the season with losses to lowly teams, and it hasn't competed for a national championship in several decades.
With that being said, hope springs eternal with a new season, and The U could really be back in 2024. In QB Cam Ward they trust, and from what I've seen, I believe them. He comes in from Washington State as one of the biggest fishes in the transfer portal, quite the get for head coach Mario Cristobal.
One of the more overlooked portal adds might be RB Damien Martinez, though, who comes over from Oregon State. He should be the workhorse, especially for this game, and he'll be facing a Florida defense that allowed more than 200 yards per game in conference play.
Gators head coach Billy Napier's seat is boiling hot. A 6-7 record and a Las Vegas Bowl loss happened in 2022, and the team wasn't bowl-eligible in 2023 with a 5-7 mark. That simply will not do in Gainesville. He has been so bad that Florida fans are like Olivia Rodrigo, as they might want to get Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen, or Will Muschamp back. Napier has been hot garbage.
The cupboard isn't completely bare in The Swamp, as QB Graham Mertz was surprisingly efficient last season, and RB Montrell Johnson was sharp. WR Eugene Wilson III looks like a player who might remind older fans of the halcyon days of Reidel Anthony, Andre Caldwell or Jabar Gaffney. It's not that long ago.
The Hurricanes have a little jelling to do, as talent on paper and chemistry on the field are two different things. However, Miami is the more complete team, and going to The Swamp and winning is no longer the daunting task it used to be.
Miami vs. Florida Expert Pick: Miami -2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Miami vs. Florida Predictions for Week 1
The Hurricanes will look to have a balanced attack in the opener, as they have the two new, shiny toys Ward and Martinez. Don't forget about WR Xavier Restrepo, though. He is the best offensive holdover, and he has reportedly had a great camp meshing with Ward in the spring and summer.
While we've touched on the offense, almost exclusively, the Canes defense also added some promising talent via the portal. The front seven will be nasty, with DEs Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor giving chase. Michigan State DL Simeon Barrow transferred in after spring practice (ouch!), and he gives the Canes another huge talent up front.
Miami's problem was in the secondary last season, and it's an area Mertz and the Gators will be looking to exploit. The team added DBs Dyoni Hill from Marshall and Mishael Powell from Washington, looking to shore up the back end. If the new-look defense can at least slow the opposition and get the offense on the field more to cook, The U could, indeed, be back.
As mentioned above, playing Miami and laying the points is a good play. However, if you're a little more on the conservative side, and your options are limited to just a flat three, playing the moneyline isn't priced out of line, either. For the total, I don't love the numbers, but if you can find Under 54, or better yet, Under 54.5, roll with that.
