College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 1

Spreads are as listed as on Covers.com as of article submission. The games are not listed in a specific order of preference, but higher is generally taken for more reliable.

LSU -10 at Wisconsin (Lambeau Field)

It doesn't matter that it's in Lambeau. Doesn't matter that Wisconsin's quarterback has the same first name as Bart Starr. LSU is a legitimate national championship contender, while Wisconsin will be in a fight just to post a .500 record this year. With LSU taking defensive coordinator Dave Aranda from Wisconsin, Wisconsin's defense will drop from good to slightly above average, while LSU's will jump from good to top 5. The Badgers don't have the personnel to withstand Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice, and their quarterbacks might not be capable of catching up.

Clemson -7 at Auburn

This pick is on the road, but this still has the look of a blowout. Auburn quarterback Sean White doesn't pose much of a rushing threat, and White has otherwise failed to impress, anyway. Auburn defense's, meanwhile, has to deal with a quarterback who threw for four touchdowns and more than 400 yards against Alabama in the national championship. That quarterback, Deshaun Watson, has the added benefit of being more than a year removed from his November 2014 ACL tear, and he also has his top receiver back in Mike Williams, who missed nearly all of last year. I don't understand this line at all.

Alabama -11.5 vs. USC (Arlington, Texas)

I think Clay Helton is a mediocre coach, and I don't know how a new starting quarterback at USC is supposed to keep them in this game after the most recent iteration of the Trojans, led by a superior quarterback in Cody Kessler, lost a bowl game to Wisconsin. The USC offense fell apart down the stretch once Helton replaced Steve Sarkisian, and I can't see the Trojans keeping it close here when two of their last four games in 2015 involved losing 48-28 against Oregon and 41-22 against Stanford.

Tennessee -20 vs. Appalachian State

Bowling Green's offense from last year was significantly better than Appalachian State's, and Bowling Green lost to Tennessee 59-30. Granted, Appalachian State's defense is better than Bowling Green's was, but it's not good enough to withstand a rushing attack that proves problematic even against the SEC's better run defenses. Appalachian State lost to Clemson 41-10 last year, and I expect a similar outcome in this case.

Arkansas -26 vs. Louisiana Tech

This one opened at -22 – if only I wrote this article earlier in the week. I still think Arkansas wins by at least 28. Louisiana Tech is starting its backup quarterback due to its starting quarterback catching a DWI, and the starting quarterback is bad to begin with. The running game looks no good for Tech, either. Meanwhile, Arkansas' offensive line will just bully Tech's exhausted defense sooner or later, but before that the Razorbacks' excellent receivers will prove too much for the Bulldogs.

Stanford -14 vs. Kansas State

I can't see Kansas State gaining any traction on offense. It has very little explosiveness with regard to either the run or pass, and the offensive line lost four of its five starters – not good when you're going against a perennially tough defense like Stanford's. The Wildcats have some good players in the front seven and a lot of defensive experience in general, but this is a team that gave up 35 points to Iowa State last year, and 45 to Arkansas. The over/under on Christian McCaffrey's touchdown total can't be lower than 3.5.

Iowa -27.5 vs. Miami (OH)

Miami of Ohio scored 17.9 points per game last year, but lost to Wisconsin 58-0 on the road. Heading to Iowa in 2016 might yield a similar outcome. The RedHawks have made progress since last year, but Iowa has a dominant running game and a defense that should prove similarly strong to what Wisconsin put forth a year ago. There's no reason to think Miami can stop Iowa from scoring, and given that the Redhawks completed 45.2 percent of their passes against FBS teams last year, an early lead would likely turn into a big one in a hurry.

Tulane +17 at Wake Forest

Wake Forest has a good defense and a couple good pass catchers, but the quarterback play and rushing production was close to non-existent last year. Tulane has a new coach, but that new coach (Willie Fritz, ex-Georgia Southern) has impressed with each of his promotions, and his run-heavy offense is both tough to stop and clock-eating in nature. Wake Forest is an unimpressive offense going against a team that likely will run out the clock quickly. And while the Tulane defense was bad last year, it gets some slack for the fact that it faced a brutal schedule last year, including Duke, Georgia Tech, Temple, Houston, Navy, Memphis, SMU and Tulsa. I think Wake's offense is more like Connecticut's, and Tulane held it to seven points last year.

Oregon State +13 at Minnesota

Oregon State was straight up miserable last year, but I have faith that Gary Andersen is a good coach, and I think the arrival of Utah State transfer Darell Garretson will provide a huge upgrade at quarterback. With two good receivers to throw to in Victor Bolden and future NFL wideout Jordan Villamin, I think Garretson can keep it within 13 against a Minnesota squad that will be without running back Shannon Brooks (foot) and heads into the game with starting tight end Brandon Lingen (shoulder) questionable.