This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Pittsburgh vs. SMU
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Undefeated Pittsburgh travels to face 7-1 SMU on Saturday evening. The Panthers are 6-1 ATS, failing to cover against California, while the total has gone under at a 4-3 rate, including each of their last three games. SMU is 5-3 ATS, while their games have gone over at a 5-3 rate. Saturday will be their first home game since September 28. It's a primetime matchup with heavy ACC implications and potential playoff repercussions.
Pittsburgh vs. SMU Betting Odds for Week 10
Spread: SMU -7 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook; Pittsburgh +7.5 (-115 ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 56.5 (-115 ESPN Bet); Under 57.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Moneyline: SMU -280 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Pittsburgh +240 (BetMGM)
All line movement here has been with most people backing the Mustangs. They opened as (-5.5) point favorites, and it's done but ticked up throughout the week, seemingly having no regression down, even briefly. Obviously, the moneyline is going to follow suit, reaching as high as (-325). Most books now have SMU as slightly more than a touchdown favorite, so if you're backing the Mustangs, absolutely hunt and see if you can get -7 or even reasonable odds on an alt line (-6.5)
It also appears that bettors have latched on to the trends of Pittsburgh games going under. The total started at 59.5 and has moved as much as three points downward.
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Pittsburgh vs. SMU Betting Picks for Week 10
First and foremost, do some research regarding the health of both team's starting quarterbacks. Pitt's Eli Holstein and SMU's Kevin Jennings have been cleared to play after a week of ambiguity regarding their status, and their exact ailments aren't known. SMU has far more experience at their backup spot, as Preston Stone was last season's starter.
I would have leaned under at the opening number, but the movement down (that may not be finished) has the total as a pass for me. Both teams can score, and both teams have solid defenses. Pitt has scored 28 points or more in all but one game while allowing 17 points or less in three of their last four. SMU has also scored at least 28 points in all but one outing and allowed 16 points or less four times. Last week's 27 points allowed was a product of turnovers.
That leaves me with the spread as a choice. That's an unfortunate spot for me, as I was on SMU (-11.5) at Duke last week and one of my cardinal rules for betting is to not swing too far one way or the other on the same team week to week. But the Mustangs were up 14 points before turning the ball over on four straight possessions. This feels like a lot of points for SMU to cover, given Pittsburgh is undefeated; that's what my heart tells me. But Pitt's offense is a greater sum than its individual pieces, however. I trust the Mustangs more from the eye test, and returning home for the first time in a month, I'm going to back them to win somewhat comfortably.
Pittsburgh vs. SMU Expert Pick: SMU -7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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Pittsburgh vs. SMU Predictions for Week 10
SMU won ugly last week, and I'm assuming they'll clean up those mistakes. If Jennings struggles early, they have a very viable option in Stone to turn to.
Both teams feature stout run defenses, but SMU has a better rushing attack. Pittsburgh's season-long stats are skewed by blowup games against Youngstown and Kent State, whereas SMU has been more consistent, going for at least 100 yards in every game and at least 179 yards six times, including four in a row. Many think of Rhett Lashlee's offense as fast and wide-open, but they average 42.5 rush attempts. That can also help this game trend under.
Ultimately, I like SMU to find more offensive balance. Shutting down Pittsburgh's run game puts the onus on Holstein and the passing attack, and I've watched Pitt struggle for multiple quarters at a time due to his inaccuracy and quarterback pressures. That's the Mustangs' recipe.
SMU 31-23.
