This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: San Diego State vs. Boise State
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San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Odds for Week 10
Spread: San Diego State +23.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook); Boise State -23.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 56.5 (-110, ESPN Bet Sportsbook); Under 57.5 (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: San Diego State +1200 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Boise State -2400 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Picks for Week 10
The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4, 2-0) travel to meet the Boise State Broncos (6-1, 3-0) in a key Mountain West Conference matchup at Albertsons Stadium in Boise at 8 p.m. ET on Friday night. The game can be viewed or streamed on FOX Sports 1 (FS1).
The Aztecs haven't had a great season, checking in a game under .500 overall, but San Diego State is unbeaten in a pair of conference matchups to date. Despite the uneven results to date, they're very much alive for a Mountain West Conference championship. It put up a very good fight last week in a 29-26 loss at Snapdragon Stadium against visiting Washington State.
In fact, while San Diego State has won just two out of the past six games against FBS opponents, it is a perfect 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in the past four games while going for 26 or more points on offense.
Aztecs QB Danny O'Neil has shown some improvement recently, and he has 1,240 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. He threw for 195 yards last week against Wazzu. The big star on offense, though, is RB Marquez Cooper. He had 78 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Cougs, and he leads the team with 748 yards and eight touchdowns.
Boise State won a crucial showdown at UNLV last week, as it looks to not only keep its conference title hopes alive, but its College Football Playoff hopes alive, too. The Broncos have won five games in a row since that narrow 37-34 loss at Oregon earlier in the season, and Boise State is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four games.
It all starts with Heisman hopeful RB Ashton Jeanty, who has 1,376 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns while gobbling up 8.7 yards per rushing attempt. He has added 50 receiving yards and a score with 12 receptions, too, but that's not really his game. The run game takes a ton of pressure off of QB Maddux Madsen, who has completed 62.2% of his passes for 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
In some facets of defense, Boise State struggles. It allows 262.4 passing yards per game while yielding 25.9 PPG. However, that shouldn't be a problem against San Diego State, which has an offense that is still a work in progress. The Aztecs have to struggle for everything they get.
The key here is Jeanty vs. the San Diego State rushing defense, which allows 159.6 yards per game. He is going to pile up his flashy numbers. But, after a showdown last week at UNLV, Boise State could have a little bit of a hangover. The Aztecs aren't flashy, but they hang around. This is a big number, and it's one San Diego State should be able to cover.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Expert Pick: San Diego State +23.5 (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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San Diego State vs. Boise State Predictions for Week 10
As far as the total is concerned in this game, nobody is going to confuse the 2024 installment of San Diego State with teams of the past led by Marshall Faulk or even Donnel Pumphrey. However, the Aztecs have slowly been showing some signs of improvement.
San Diego State has scored 26 or more points in three in a row and 21 or more points in four straight games. The defense has allowed 21 or more points in six in a row and 24 or more points in three in a row. The Over-Under has split in the past four games. If there was a lean, especially since they're facing a Boise State team with the most prolific rusher in the nation, it would be to the Over.
The Broncos have averaged just 28.5 PPG in the past two games at Hawaii and UNLV. However, they're back on the Smurf Turf, where they always seem to put on a show. This season, Boise State has managed 45 or more points in three games at Albertsons Stadium while allowing 27.0 PPG in the past two home showings. The Over has cashed in all three games at home, too.
Look for this game to be a 41-24 kind of game, which would easily put it in the Over column.
