This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Week 4 Betting Roundup
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Week 4 marked the most ranked matchups in the month of September since 2006. The home teams went 5-2 straight-up (SU), 6-1 against the spread (ATS), and 6-1 Under. The two home teams to lose was the Clemson Tigers, who lost in overtime to the No. 5 Florida State Seminoles 31-24. The other home loser was No. 11 Notre Dame, who lost on the last play of the game to the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes 17-14. Both Clemson and Notre Dame were priced as home underdogs and had their opportunities to pull off the upsets but just fell short.
Underdogs of 17.5 points went 0-15 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, and 9-5-1 Over (64%) in Week 4, and for the season, they have produced a 5-167 SU mark, 95-75-3 ATS for 56%, and seen the Over go 92-79 for 54% winning bets. There has been one 17.5 or greater underdog to defeat a ranked foe, and that occurred in Week 1 when the Colorado Buffalos shocked the world in their 45-42 win over the then-ranked TCU Horned Frogs. In the 2022 season, there were nine 17.5 or greater underdogs that pulled off the upset and 37 teams, or an average of about five per season since 2016.
There will be more upsets by 17.5-point-plus underdogs in the weeks ahead. Sadly, there are none on the Week 5 slate to bet.
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College Football Betting Algorithm
The following college football sports betting algorithm has produced a 37-18 Under record for 67% winning bets over the past 17 seasons. The Requirements are:
· Bet the Under in a conference matchup
· The road team is favored by no more than 10 points
· The road team has passed for more than 300 yards in each of their last four games
This set of game parameters and team situational angles targets a betting opportunity when the No. 13 LSU Tigers visit Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium to take on the No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels set to start at 5:00 PM EST, Saturday.
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College Football Live Betting Strategy
The current mark prices the LSU Tigers as 2.5-point favorites over the Ole Miss Rebels, including a 67.5-point total. In college football, the higher the points total, the greater the scoring volatility can be expected on the scoreboard. So, to take advantage of this phenomenon, consider betting 60% of your betting amount preflop and then look to bet 20% more at 71.5 points and 20% more at 74.5 points. The most important requirement for Live betting is to have a plan in place prior to the start of the game. If the game starts out faster than expected, a prepared bettor can execute at the prescribed price levels, knowing the aforementioned algorithm has hit 67% winners. In fact, if we add 6 points to the preflop total, that betting algorithm has earned 79% winners!
College Football Expert Picks for Week 5
Double-digit underdogs to monitor in Week 5 based on the predictive models
Since there are no 17.5-point or greater underdogs facing a ranked foe on the Week 5 card, let us take a look at double-digit underdogs between 10 and 17.5 points.
- Auburn +14.5 vs. No. 1 Georgia
- Nebraska +17 at No. 2 Michigan
- Kansas +16.5 at No. 3 Texas
- Vanderbilt +13 vs. No. 23 Missouri
- South Carolina +12.5 at No. 21 Tennessee
- Mississippi State +14.5 vs. No. 12 Alabama
Upset Alert Notices on Ranked Teams to Monitor in Week 5
Texas has been served an upset notice prior to the start of this game set for 3:30 EST in Austin, Texas. Note that Kansas falls into a highly profitable betting algorithm that has gone 141-77 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on any team averaging 4.75 or more yards per rush.
· That team allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.
· That team is facing a foe that is allowing 4.35 to 4.75 yards per rush
· That foe is ranked in the Top 25 AP poll
If the foe is ranked in the Top 10 of the AP poll, our barking dogs have gone 25-20 (56%), 28-15-2 ATS (65%), and 26-17-2 Under the posted total. I like Kansas, plus the 17 points as offered at BetMGM as a solid betting opportunity. I will bet Kansas at 17 points and down to 15.5 points ahead of kickoff.
College Football Best Bet for Week 5: Penn State -27 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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No. 7 Penn State vs Northwestern
Noon EST, September 30
Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
The undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions take to the road to take on the Big-Ten conference foe Northwestern Wildcats, set to kick off at Noon EST. Penn State is coming off an impressive but largely unnoticed 31-0 dominating home win over the then-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. After such a dominating win in which Penn State's defense held Iowa to just four first downs, 56 passing yards, and 26 rushing yards and outgained them by 321 total yards, they moved up one slot to No. 6 of the latest AP poll. That lack of attention is all the news info head coach James Franklin needs to motivate his team and avoid any minor letdown.
I wrote prior to the season that I had made a bet at 38:1 that Texas would take on Penn State in the College Football Playoff game. Penn State ranks 15th offensively, scoring an average of 40.5 PPG, and fifth-best defensively, allowing an average of just 8.8 PPG among the 133 FBS programs. Penn State is priced at +1600 and, even now, with a 4-0 record, represents the biggest undervalued team on the board to win the National Championship at BetMGM.
Another futures bet I have made based on the value currently offered at DraftKings is on Penn State sophomore and 5-Star recruit Drew Allar at +3500 to win the Heisman. Through four games, he has completed 67.2% of his passes for 903 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He is getting better with each game, and although he is a dark horse to win the Heisman, if Penn State defeats Ohio State on the road and then Michigan at home, you can bet he will be one of the contenders.
James Franklin has his best and most experienced offensive line and arguably the best unit in the Big Ten conference. The ground attack features last year's Big Ten offensive freshman of the year, Nicholas Singleton, who has 203 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Moreover, his running mate in the backfield returns in Kaytron Allen, who has 280 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season.
Under head coach James Franklin is 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets in road games facing a conference foe and scoring 28 or more points.
