College Football Picks: Week 8 Recap and Best Bets for Week 9

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Published on October 25, 2023

College Football Week 8 Betting Roundup

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In Week 8 action, underdogs went 19-37 straight-up (SU), 32-24 against the spread (ATS) for 57%, and 34-21-1 Under for 62% winning bets. Week 8 marked the best ATS results for underdogs all season but pales in comparison to the best underdog week since 1980, which was week 13 in the 1994 season when underdogs went 17-24 SU and 31-9-1 ATS for 78% winning bets.

Double-digit underdogs went 2-19 SU, but a highly profitable 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets in Week 8 and marks the best result of the season. In fact, since Week 5, these double-digit dogs have not had a losing week and have combined for a 6-50 SU record but 33-22-1 ATS for 70% winning bets.

College Football Betting Tools

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College Football Betting Algorithm

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 60-28-3 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 2015. The requirements for an active betting opportunity are:

· Bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points

· Our dog is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses to conference foes

· The game occurs in weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season.

The teams identified are Syracuse when they take to the road to face ACC Conference foe Virginia Tech, priced as 2.5-point underdogs, and Kentucky, priced as 3.5-point home underdogs, when they take on No. 21 Tennessee.

If we add a filter to the previous algorithm to identify only home underdogs, like Kentucky, the record improves significantly to 33-13-2 ATS for 72% winning bets. I like betting on Kentucky getting 3.5 points and sprinkling the money line, expecting the upset win.

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College Football Live Betting Strategy

A trend has been developing this season in which favorites are trailing at the half but come back in the second half with a huge effort to win the game. So far in the 2023 season, favorites that trailed by less than 10 points at the half have gone 77-50 SU and 36-85-5 ATS for 30% winning bets based on the closing line. However, if you bet these favorites at the half, using the second-half line has provided a significantly cheaper line, averaging six points better than the closing line and producing an 82-43-2 ATS record for 65% winning bets.

There have been 10 games in which the favorite trailed by more than 10 points at the half and came back to win the game this season. Betting on them at the half has produced a solid 7-3 ATS record good for 70^ winning bets.

College Football Expert Picks For Week 9

Double-digit underdogs to monitor in Week 9 based on the models

The Double-digit dogs facing ranked foes in Week 9 are:

Date	Time	Day	Week	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total
28-Oct-23	4:00	Sat	9	California	USC	home	10.5	67.5
28-Oct-23	7:00	Sat	9	Colorado State	Air Force	home	12	48.5
28-Oct-23	3:30	Sat	9	Florida	Georgia	neutral	14.5	47
28-Oct-23	8:00	Sat	9	Georgia Tech	North Carolina	home	11	64
28-Oct-23	8:00	Sat	9	Old Dominion	James Madison	away	20	49
28-Oct-23	12:00	Sat	9	Kansas	Oklahoma	home	10	65.5
28-Oct-23	7:30	Sat	9	Vanderbilt	Mississippi	away	24.5	63.5
28-Oct-23	3:30	Sat	9	Pittsburgh	Notre Dame	away	20.5	44.5
28-Oct-23	12:00	Sat	9	Indiana	Penn State	away	32	46.5
28-Oct-23	4:00	Sat	9	Rice	Tulane	home	10.5	54
28-Oct-23	7:00	Sat	9	Stanford	Washington	home	26.5	59.5
28-Oct-23	3:30	Sat	9	BYU	Texas	away	17.5	50.5
28-Oct-23	7:30	Sat	9	Colorado	UCLA	away	17	63.5
28-Oct-23	12:00	Sat	9	Wake Forest	Florida State	home	20.5	51.5
28-Oct-23	7:30	Sat	9	Wisconsin	Ohio State	home	14.5	43.5

College Football Best Bets for Week 9: Arizona +3.5 over No.11 Oregon State (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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No. 11 Oregon State vs Arizona

10:30 PM EST, October 28 | ESPN

Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

When the line opened up for this game, pricing the Beavers as a modest three-point favorite over the unranked conference foe Arizona, it certainly caught my attention. Why would the 11th-ranked team in the nation be such a small favorite over an unranked opponent that is 4-3 SU overall and just 2-2 in conference play? The answers require some research and a deep dive into the database.

The omnipotent database informs us that ranked teams on the road facing an unranked conference foe and priced as scant 3.5 or fewer-point favorites have produced a 17-17 SU record and a horrid 12-20-2 ATS mark for just 38% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Over in these games has gone a highly profitable 21-12 for 64% winning bets. The Over result reflects the home dog exceeding offensive expectations, with 22 of these 33 games seeing the dog score more than their team's total betting line.

In addition to the 8-Unit graded Best Bet on Arizona +3.5 points, I also like the following betting opportunities. if you bet all three, then re-weight the amounts to a 4-Unit amount on Arizona plus the points, a 4-Unit bet Over Arizona's team total, and a 1-Unit on Arizona to have at least four touchdowns.

The current Arizona team total is 26.5 points as offered at DraftKings and I like betting Over for four units.

I will also be betting Arizona with pizza money (not more than 1 unit on a 1 to 10-Unit betting scale) to have four or more touchdowns at +135.