DraftKings College Football DFS Picks: CFB Week 5 DFS Main Slate Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.

CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings College Football Week 5 DFS Picks and Plays

Like Mick Jagger, this article was born in a crossfire hurricane. Still, we need to know how to play the main slate this weekend and I will deliver -- rain or shine. 

Let's get right to it before my power goes out.

Slate Overview

So, Texas is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack in terms of implied total. They get an in-conference cupcake game against Miss State. We've seen Ohio State with IT's in this range a couple of times this season but those were against MAC and Sun Belt teams. That's the state of the state with State. 

Well, how do we get the right exposure to Texas then? Quinn Ewers is questionable and has the same salary as Arch Manning at $9K. We likely won't know until later in the week as to how Texas will deploy its quarterbacks, but it wouldn't be surprising to see them rest Ewers another week with a bye on the other side of this one. 

Manning was a relative flop last week with 15.92 points despite dropping back 29 times. He had a couple of picks and, with good reason, he didn't bother running at all. We can expect him to be sharper this week with a full start under his belt and possibly run more as well. Still, $9K is rather steep. It's not the $9,800 you have to sink into rostering Dart but it's not nothing, either. 

Once there's more clarity, it probably wouldn't hurt to mix Manning into some lineups given that Texas is set to put up 50 and he should play at max effort with more running.

I do think Jaydon Blue is close to a must-play, though. He's nearly $2K cheaper than Ollie Gordon and frankly projects better than Gordon at this point. Miss State coughs up over 200 rushing yards per game and Blue has a 35 percent claim to the rushing work when he's active. It'll be important to monitor Quintrevion Wisner's status as his absence last week opened the door for Blue to have a huge game, even in garbage time. 

Among the pass-catchers, Ryan Wingo is hard to ignore. The five-star freshman is just $3,700. He has gotten four targets on three occasions, including each of the last two weeks. What has he done with those? Five catches, 169 yards, two touchdowns. That's real upside, especially in this spot, for under $4K.

UCF vs Colorado

Now this one should be fun. 64.5 total. UCF set as big favorites. Good game script for Colorado's passing game. And two teams with the same color scheme. I'm all in.

It's not really possible to make a lineup with all of KJ Jefferson, RJ Harvey, Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Believe me, I tried. You can only stomach so many min-priced options to make a build work. 

I think the non-negotiables are Sanders and Harvey provided the weather holds. Hunter's of course a great play in a vacuum but it'll run you $10,100. Instead, what you could do is target some of Colorado's less-expensive passing game options.

Jimmy Horn ($6,100) is second on the team in targets and averages a healthy 9.2 YPT. The only negative in his profile is just the one touchdown on 18 grabs. Perhaps he's due for some touchdown luck correcting in his favor. LaJohntay Wester ($5,900) is a downright bargain for what he's produced thus far. 

The sneaky play is Will Sheppard at $3,800. He played 73 snaps last week and drew six targets -- his second-highest mark of the season. He only caught one of them for a five-yard gain, but that could work in our favor on this slate. A player with that involvement in the Colorado offense for under $4K must be considered.

As a runback option if you go for the non-Hunter Colorado plays, Kobe Hudson has been dominant on a per-target basis. It's not a high-volume passing attack but he still holds a 30 percent share and averages 16.3 yards per target. He has two touchdowns on 13 catches. At $7,300, he's not easy to fit in with too many other pieces from this game but it's doable.

Indiana vs Maryland

The total here (52.5) doesn't jump off the page like the others. I think there's real potential to see an over here, though. We have two excellent offenses and one leaky defense (Maryland) in play. 

I have created a chart of how Maryland's seasons tend to go, which you can see below: 

Maryland always starts great and peters out. According to this chart, the well-done portion is just about over and we're getting into the barely shaded-in territory. Going to Bloomington will actually be tough now given how the Hoosiers have looked. Maryland already ranks 16th out of 18 in the Big Ten in total yards allowed per game. That defense is in trouble going against the No.3 offense in the Big Ten in total offense and No.2 scoring offense (50.5 PPG).

Kurtis Rourke runs the show in Bloomington with eight passing touchdowns and over 1,000 passing yards through four games. He spreads the ball around as four players have target shares between 12.5 percent and 22.1 percent. Elijah Sarratt ($5,500) and Omar Cooper ($5,100) lead the way and Ke'Shawn Williams ($3,900) has become a factor of late. I will have my eye on each of them, especially in lineups where I deploy Rourke.

Tai Felton ($7,700) and Billy Edwards ($7,700) are Maryland's headliners. While this might be a good game script for them in the sense that they're likely to be in catch-up mode, it's hard to imagine this duo sustaining the pace they've established over the first month of the season. I'd stay away in cash games and lean with the Hoosiers generally, but the roster percentage figures on both Felton and Edwards could make them interesting GPP targets. 

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Quarterback

Avery Johnson ($8,000) Kansas State vs Oklahoma State

Last weekend all but sealed my Avery Johnson Heisman ticket's fate. I'm not tilting. I'm definitely not tilting. He was brutal against BYU with no touchdowns and two interceptions. We press on with a $300 discount relative to last week and a better matchup.

Johnson is still ironing things out as a passer; he hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game yet and has a 6.5 YPA on a pedestrian 61.1 percent completion rate. Luckily, this should be the setup for his best passing performance thus far. Oklahoma State's pass defense has hemorrhaged yards to the tune of 280.8 per game. That might not be enough for Johnson to give us the 300-passing-yard bonus, but at least it shouldn't be the disaster it was last weekend.

Adding on, Johnson has been an active runner all season. In two P4 games, Johnson has averaged 14 rushes per game. He's peeling off well over 6.0 YPC on those runs but has been shut out of the end zone thus far. I think that corrects this weekend and we get strong rushing production to go with serviceable passing numbers to put us in a good position.

Kurtis Rourke ($7,500) Indiana vs Maryland

We discussed this game at length earlier but we'll dig a little deeper on Rourke. For one, he's eminently stackable with a deep and talented group of pass-catchers around him and all of them are under $5,500.

Maryland has to go on the road in this spot and Indiana's crowd might actually be lively after the hot start it has gotten off to. The Terps have given up the second-most passing yards per game on this slate (247) despite facing some poor passing offenses. 

Great spot for Rourke here and I'm calling Indiana to potentially make this one ugly for Maryland, giving us points galore along the way.

Others to Consider: Miller Moss, USC ($7,300); Jaxson Dart ($9,800)

Running Back

RJ Harvey ($8,900) UCF vs Colorado

If you're paying up at running back this weekend, Harvey is your guy. It's too risky to sink $9,200 into Ollie Gordon with his recent form and his matchup is decidedly tougher. Harvey is a much easier sell for multiple reasons.

Harvey plays in one of the most run-heavy offenses in the country. The Knights pound the rock on 73 percent of their plays. And thanks to Harvey, they do it well with a 6.8 YPC average as a team. Harvey has a 36 percent stake of that gaudy rushing total and has gone over 30 DK points in each of his games this season. 

$8,900 is a chunk of change, but I'd advise finding ways to build around him on this slate.

Devin Neal ($6,600) Kansas vs TCU

Two years ago, this game was a big enough deal to be the site for College Gameday. Oh, memories.

Anyway, Neal is about as much of a workhorse as you'll find on this slate. He ranks seventh in the nation in carries (72) and 50 of them have come in the last two games. Neal has run for 100 yards in each game this season. He won't add much to your bottom line in the passing game, but that's alright when he's pushing 25 carries against a TCU defense that has been gashed on the ground to this point (175.2 RuYD Per Game Allowed).

Dante Dowdell ($5,600) Nebraska at Purdue

Purdue's run defense is abysmal. It's not just the Notre Dame game, either. Oregon State piled up 341 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns against the Boilermakers last week.

Notre Dame and Oregon State are better running teams than Nebraska, but there's still opportunity here. Dowdell has emerged as the lead back for the 'Huskers with a 38 percent carry share. In games against P4 competition, that number creeps up to 56.5 percent. 

He hasn't been great with that volume; in the 37 combined carries against Colorado and Illinois, he has averaged 3.9 YPC. I think Purdue will give Dowdell some YPC deodorant. If Dowdell gets at least 15 cracks at this defense, there should be upwards of 100 yards and at least one touchdown. That's plenty of return for a $5,600 play.

Others to Consider: Jaydon Blue, Texas ($7,400); Jarquez Hunter, Auburn ($6,300); Le'Veon Moss, Texas A&M ($6,000)

Wide Receiver

Tre Harris ($9,100) Mississippi vs Kentucky

It'll be difficult to fit Harris in if you're going heavy at the Colorado UCF game, but that doesn't mean you should fade him across your lineups. 

There was some hemming and hawing about Harris' ADP in drafts this offseason with a large faction being concerned that Ole Miss had too many weapons to sink a third-round pick into Harris when ostensibly his target share could have been the same as 1-2 other Rebel wideouts. That hasn't been the case. Like, at all. 

Harris has a 33 percent share in what is maybe the best passing game in the country. That's prime real estate. He's building a mansion on that real estate, too, averaging 13.4 yards per target with an 80 percent catch rate and four touchdowns. If anything, the four touchdowns feel light considering the peripheral stats.

Ole Miss should roll Kentucky on Saturday and prove to any of the lingering doubters that its performance thus far is not just a function of a soft non-con schedule. The Rebs are legit and Harris is a big part of that.

Isaiah Neyor ($5,200) Nebraska at Purdue

Neyor is starting to establish himself as Dylan Raiola's No.1 target. They spread the ball around but Neyor leads the way with an 18 percent share and has four touchdowns on 16 catches. That's a nice touchdown rate. 

Running back Dante Dowdell can still pay off at his salary but Nebraska isn't going to completely abandon what's gotten them here, which is Dylan Raiola and the passing game. Neyor should be busy again here and $5,200 is not a major barrier. 

Zachariah Branch ($5,000) USC vs Wisconsin

USC's pecking order for targets is starting to get a little clearer. It's not totally stratified yet; no USC receiver has a target share of 20 percent. However, Branch is leading the way at 18%. The catch rate hasn't been great yet at 61 percent but I'm encouraged by the relative volume in what should be an upper-echelon passing game.

Branch has all the talent in the world and reminds me a little bit of Adoree' Jackson minus the defensive element. He's still putting it together but he did see 12 targets (6 catches) for 98 yards against a tough Michigan defense on the road last week. 

Here's hoping that the targets continue on this trajectory and the efficiency ticks up. Wisconsin had trouble stopping the deep shots against Bama and while Miller Moss can't sling it quite like Jalen Milroe, there could be some deep opportunities this weekend. The one potential derailment would be if Branch draws the assignment from Ricardo Hallman, who is a stud at corner.

Ryan Wingo ($3,700) Texas vs Mississippi State

We touched on Wingo earlier in the article but we need to reiterate why he's worth a look. The price is alluring for a player who is getting a solid snap share. Wingo might not get the bulk of his work until Texas begins to pull away but I believe he will be worth the wait. 

Mississippi State's defense just get shredded by Graham Mertz. At home. Now it has to slow Texas in Austin? Come on. It's going to be a party on Sixth Street on Saturday and everyone's invited, including the freshman averaging 20 yards per target. 

I like teammate Matthew Golden ($5,000) as well in this spot.

Others to Consider: LaJohntay Wester ($5,900) and Will Sheppard ($3,800), Colorado; Omar Cooper ($5,100) and Ke'Shawn Williams ($3,900), Indiana; Kobe Hudson, UCF ($7,300) (don't make the mistake of clicking the other WR K. Hudson on DraftKings, Kyron Hudson at $4,800)