DraftKings College Football: Week 6 Main Slate

Welcome into this week's breakdown for the DraftKings main slate. We have an 11-gamer with six games projected to go into the 60s in their over/unders. Also, five of the top 10 offenses by the S&P+ metric are in play here, highlighted by Oklahoma and LSU at the top. Below is a cheat sheet followed by our suite of DFS tools to help you get your lineups set. I also have a position-by-position breakdown with my favorite values on the board. 

Cheat Sheet

Games To Target

Oklahoma and LSU literally rank #1 and #2 in offensive S&P+, so approaching either of those offenses will be a good start, especially in cash games. Looking beyond that we have Penn State with an implied total of 41.75, the third-highest on the slate. What makes Penn State double appealing is the bargain prices on most of their top performers, like quarterback Sean Clifford and receiver KJ Hamler.

Arizona-Colorado is also a game to target, with a high over/under of 64 and a narrow spread of just -3.5 for the Buffs. Both offenses should be primed for good performances there, and the key will be monitoring the statuses of Khalil Tate, J.J. Taylor, and Laviska Shenault.

Finally, the Minnesota offense is off to a hot start rand ranks 14th in offensive S&P+, so there are plenty of Gophers to consider going up against Illinois. The Boston College-Louisville matchup may offer a good bit of offense with little resistance as well.

DFS Tools

Stats

Targets

Team Trends

Defense vs. Position

Team Rankings

DFS Primer

Lineup Optimizer

Value Report

Podcast

Position by Position Breakdown

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma ($9,300) at Kansas and Joe Burrow, LSU ($8,700) vs. Utah State

There's not much I can say about these guys that you don't already know. They're both extremely talented, they both play in top-notch systems with top-notch supporting casts, and they both have soft matchups this week. There is enough in the bargain bin at other positions to stack these two and still build a strong lineup. 

Sean Clifford, Penn State ($7,100) vs. Purdue

Clifford leads a slew of Nittany Lions that feel like bargains this week. For starters, Clifford ranks fourth among (healthy) quarterbacks on the slate in average points per game, and yet there are eight quarterbacks priced higher than him. Clifford ranks sixth in the nation in YPA at 11.1 among quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts and his TD:INT ratio checks in at a crisp 9:1. 

In terms of the matchup, Purdue has the second-worst defense of any team on the slate according to S&P+ (only Colorado ranks lower). The Boilermakers allow a slate-high 2.5 passing touchdowns per game along with 296 passing yards (3rd highest). As my podcast partner, Nick Whalen, succinctly pointed out this week, all you need to know is that this Purdue defense let Minnesota's Tanner Morgan go 21-for-22 for 396 and four touchdowns. Yeah, Morgan is starting to prove that he's at least competent and potentially good, but still. Clifford should carve up this Purdue defense. 

Grant Gunnell, Arizona ($6,700) at Colorado

This is contingent on Khalil Tate (hamstring) being ruled out, but Gunnell is a legitimate DFS option if that ends up being the case. The true freshman threw for 352 yards on 8.0 YPA and a 65.9 completion percentage in a spot start against UCLA last week and would draw a matchup against one of the nation's worst defenses if he gets the start. Colorado allows 291 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. What's more, this Arizona offense ranks 10th in S&P+, so getting the engine of said offense when it's facing a weak defense could be a strong strategy. 

Again, we'll need confirmation that he's starting before we can lock it in, but Gunnell will be in several of my lineups if he gets the nod.

Tanner Morgan, Minnesota ($6,500) vs. Illinois

I can't believe I'm recommending a player who was so thoroughly mediocre last season, but Morgan has four games of sample thus far this season and he's looked good in each outing. Morgan ranks third in the nation in YPA (11.6) and has 10 touchdowns against just two picks over 94 attempts. He has two stud receivers in Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman that can dominate the Illinois corners. 

Illinois has just one game against Power 5 competition thus far (Nebraska), and it let Adrian Martinez carve up the defense for 328 yards and three scores on 34 attempts. Morgan is arguably a more dangerous passer than Martinez is at this point, so this sets up as an extremely favorable matchup for the Golden Gopher quarterback. 

Jett Duffey, Texas Tech ($6,000) vs. Oklahoma State

Duffey gets the start this week with Alan Bowman sidelined and is in position to hit value given his bargain price tag of just $6K. I have no opinion on Jackson Tyner starting over him against Oklahoma last week other than it was the wrong call by coach Matt Wells. 

Duffey was far from great in relief of Tyner against the Sooners (10-for-20, 120 yards, no touchdowns, no picks), but we have a decent 2018 sample to point to. He completed 67 percent of his 154 attempts for 1,221 yards and added 12 total touchdowns. If he can play close to that level against the Cowboys, he'll be in good shape. It's worth noting that Oklahoma State has a top-40 defense by S&P+ so this isn't a slam dunk, but Duffey is a viable GPP option if you're trying to go low at one of your quarterback spots. 

Running Back

The running back menu is an odd one this week. At the top we have Chuba Hubbard at $8,900 going up against Texas Tech before we drop down to Boston College's AJ Dillon at an affordable $7,900. Beyond that is a hodgepodge of backs with varying degrees of upside. With that, I'll focus on the mid-tier options that stand out from the crowd this week.

Trey Sermon, Oklahoma ($5,400) at Kansas

We haven't seen the explosive production from the Oklahoma backfield just yet this season, but it could be coming Saturday. Kansas gives up a slate-worst 211 rushing yards per game and Oklahoma has a slate-high 51.25 implied total. If the Sooners show even a shred of mercy and opt to lean on the run in the second half, it could become the Sermon show.

Sermon averages 8.1 YPC with three rushing scores on just 34 carries. Therein lies the rub; volume is what we chase in fantasy and we can't count on that from Sermon necessarily. He has just one game with double-digit carries and Jalen Hurts' presence presents a constant threat of goal line vulturing. Still, Sermon should function as the No.1 back for the Sooners this week and even if he sees his average workload, there's reason to believe he can still attain the type of production to return value on his mid-tier price.

Darrius Smith, Arizona ($5,400) at Colorado

The Arizona backfield is a tough one to solve. It gets easier if J.J. Taylor is removed from the equation, leaving the bulk of the carries to Smith and Gary Brightwell. Smith is the more expensive play by $300, and part of that could be due to his ability as a pass catcher. He has caught six of his seven targets for 145 yards and a score while no other Arizona back has more than two targets. That's the type of skill set that has given Colorado fits this year; opposing running backs have caught 16 of 22 targets for 236 yards and a score through four games. Like Grant Gunnell at quarterback, this play hinges on the incumbent starter (Taylor) being scratched. If Taylor is out, though, Smith becomes a strong play especially in this full-point PPR format.

Others to consider

John Emery Jr, LSU ($5,100) vs. Utah State

This is a bit of a long shot, but follow me here. If LSU threatens that lofty implied total of 50.25, there's a strong likelihood that this one is a blowout. If it's a blowout, the run game could play a major factor in the second half and also lessen the likelihood of LSU exposing starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire to unnecessary wear and tear with the game in hand. Lanard Fournette left the program this week, opening up more opportunities behind Edwards-Helaire as well. 

You may remember Emery from being way over-ranked by me during the offseason only to see him take a backseat in the offense right off the bat. My bad. But we can start to recoup some of that this week. Emery is in line to see a season-high in carries against Utah State -- a defense that is strong by almost any standard but hasn't seen an offense of this level. The freshman hasn't been overly explosive yet with just 4.0 YPC so there's a leap of faith based on his prospect profile here, but it's an impressive enough profile to make that leap worth considering. 

Wide Receiver

KJ Hamler, Penn State ($6,000) vs. Purdue

Getting Hamler at this price in this matchup is almost too good to be true. He has nearly twice as many targets as Penn State's next-highest receiver, Jahan Dotson, racking up 28 through four games while Dotson has 15. Hamler is also a menace with the ball in his hands, averaging 12.6 YPT. This tweet from SI's Ross Dellenger also caught my eye earlier this week.

I'd be in on Hamler at this price against almost anybody, but when it's against a Purdue secondary that gives up a slate-high 2.5 passing touchdowns, he becomes my favorite play on the board. 

Tyler Johnson ($6,600) and Rashod Bateman ($6,400) vs. Illinois

A target tree as narrow as Minnesota's is always something to keep in mind. Johnson and Bateman combine for over 65 percent of the Gophers' total targets, with each averaging over 7.0 targets per game and at least 10.1 yards per target. Johnson has a slight edge in receptions, which explains his higher price in this format, while Bateman is the more explosive player with a 15.5 YPT mark. Both are in line for a heavy target volume and both will have winnable matchups against Illinois corners. Both are players I'll have in multiple lineups Saturday.

Sam James, West Virginia ($5,200) vs. Texas 

I mentioned James as a sit candidate in season-long leagues earlier in the week, but in DFS with a low price tag and a full-point PPR format, my opinion shifts. He's cheap and has a 28.4 percent target share -- the highest on the team by far. Texas has also been a bit shaky against the pass thus far this season, giving up 314 yards per game through the air. 

Chatarius Atwell, Louisville ($5,700) vs. Boston College

A 36.5 percent target share along with a 10.1 YPT is eye popping for any receiver. That Atwell is producing at that level with shaky quarterback play while being listed under $6,000 puts him firmly on the radar for this week. There's also the matter of this Boston College defense performing well below what we've come to expect, ranking 88th in defensive S&P+. 

KD Nixon ($5,500) and Tony Brown ($5,700), Colorado vs. Arizona

Laviska Shenault just isn't himself this season, and while that's a disappointment after having such a great 2018, it also opens up more options in this offense as it can't afford to force feed him targets and carries the way it did a year ago. 

Brown and Nixon each have roughly 20 percent of the target share and both have been explosive, averaging over 11.5 YPT. Arizona's defense allows a slate-high 336 passing yards per game, which suggests that this Colorado passing attack is set up for success here. The main difference between the two thus far has been touchdowns -- Brown has four on 19 catches while Nixon has just one on 17 receptions. Either way, both are in line for success against this Wildcat secondary.

Others to Consider

Dalton Rigdon, Texas Tech ($5,000) vs. Oklahoma State

Rigdon showed a decent rapport with Duffey in the Week 5 matchup against Oklahoma and gets a softer matchup this week against Oklahoma State.

Siaosi Mariner, Utah State ($5,300) at LSU

Leads the team in targets and Utah State will have to go to the air early and often if it hopes to have any chance of keeping this one competitive.