DraftKings College Football: Week Zero

Aloha and welcome to our Week Zero breakdown of the DraftKings main slate, where we will be treated to two fun but very different contests. Leading us off is the in-state battle between Miami and Florida, where the 8th ranked Gators are looking to build off their 10-win season from 2018. The Hurricanes are just a year removed from an Orange Bowl appearance and yet they're starting from square one with a new head coach and starting quarterback. This matchup may have bigger season-long implications, but it's the lesser of the two games on the slate from a fantasy perspective.

For the late game, we have a matchup that projects to be a high-scoring track meet between Arizona in Year 2 under Kevin Sumlin and an always-exciting Hawaii squad. 

Without further adieu, let's get into the best plays for the DraftKings slate as we usher in the 2019 season.

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• Stats
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• Defense vs. Position

Cheat Sheet

As you can see, both sides of the Arizona-Hawaii game are expected to score more than either side of the Miami-Florida tilt. With that, most of the action and most lineups will be loaded up with players from the late game. 

It makes sense; both Hawaii and Arizona are the most up-tempo teams on the slate. Arizona was far-and-away the most fast-paced offense of this group last season, averaging 76.5 plays per game-- good enough for 26th in the nation. Hawaii averaged 71.5 (71st) while Florida averaged 69.1 (91st) and Miami brought up the rear with 66.0 plays per game (116th). 

Miami has a chance to be more up-tempo than its 2018 vintage with a new offensive coordinator and a new starter at quarterback in Jarren Williams. Speaking of quarterbacks, let's get into the position by position breakdowns for Saturday's games. 
 

Position Breakdowns

Quarterback

• Khalil Tate, Arizona ($9,000) at Hawaii
  • The priciest player on the board, Tate is in position to recapture the form that made him college football's most electric player in the latter half of 2017. An ankle injury coupled with a clunky transition into a new offense led to disappointing results from Tate last season. But there's reason to believe that a fully healthy version of himself with a year within the system under his belt can unlock the old Tate
  • Tate is going up against a Hawaii defense that returns a lot of its production from a year ago, but that wasn't exactly a unit that had much luck slowing down opponents. Hawaii ranked 109th in scoring defense, 103rd in rushing yards allowed per game, and 76th in passing yardage allowed per game.
• Cole McDonald, Hawaii ($8,800) vs. Arizona
  • A healthy McDonald was one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the nation in 2018, throwing for 2,100 yards and 24 touchdowns through the first six games before getting banged up.
  • He'll be throwing early and often as Hawaii looks to test a soft Arizona pass defense.
  • Pairing these two quarterbacks will likely be the most common base for most lineups Saturday, and I expect this slate to play out where whoever builds the best Tate-McDonald lineup will carry the day.
• Feleipe Franks, Florida ($7,200) vs. Miami
  • Franks is the only viable pivot off of the Tate-McDonald build.
  • He averaged just 1.4 fantasy points per game less than Tate in 2018 and Florida brings back the majority of its contributing receivers. Many are expecting Franks to take another step forward in his development this season, and while Miami will make for a tough test defensively, he should be able to return the value necessary to make him worth pivoting away from the top two signal callers.

Running Back

• Arizona's J.J. Taylor ($7,700) is the priciest back on the board, and deservedly so. He's facing a soft Hawaii run defense and is coming off a 1,400-yard season. Taylor may be a bit cost prohibitive, however, meaning that making a lineup with him could require a pivot off of one of the top two quarterbacks or going with bargain basement receivers. He should be worth the price tag, it's just a matter of what kind of lineup you can build around him.
• Lamical Perine ($6,200) is running behind an inexperienced offensive line but he's a talented player (6.2 YPC in 2018) and he figures to be busy Saturday.
• Other Options
  • Malik Davis ($3,700) vs. Miami
  • Cam'Ron Harris ($4,400) vs. Florida
  • Fred Holly III ($4,100) and Dayton Furuta ($4,300)
    • This is an inexpensive way at getting shares of the Hawaii rushing attack and rounding out your running back corps. They should have a fairly even carry split, but it's worth noting that Furuta's size might give him the edge if Hawaii opts to run near the goal line.

Pass Catchers

Sorting out which Hawaii receivers to roster is crucial to this slate; Hawaii is projected to throw the most passes of any team on this slate and the Rainbow Warriors are looking to replace John Ursua, who absorbed 28 percent of the team's targets in 2018. That means there are plenty of unclaimed targets up for grabs here. 

• Cedric Byrd ($6,900) and Jojo Ward ($6,000) are two locks for target volume here, which is crucial in a full-point PPR format. They each saw 20 percent or more of the target share in 2018 and could be even busier in this matchup against an Arizona passing defense that ranked 121st in passing yardage allowed last season. These two are the known commodities here, but solving the target puzzle beyond them is going to be crucial
• Jared Smart ($3,000) and Jason-Matthew Sharsh ($4,700) are both listed as starters opposite Byrd and Ward, making them strong bets to return value. As Smart's price tag implies, he's short on track record but has clearly done enough to impress the coaching staff and earn this starting role on the outside. Sharsh was buried on the depth chart a season ago but still managed over 10.0 YPT on his 15 targets, and he's now set up to see reliable volume in this offense.

On the Arizona side, we have a passing game that is looking to replace its top three receivers from 2018.

• Cedric Peterson ($5,900) is the top returning receiver and was impressive when given a chance last season, notching 8.9 YPT and turning four of his 18 catches into touchdowns. He's a fairly safe bet to lead the Wildcats in targets early in the season.
• Brian Casteel ($5,500) has some appeal as well given that he's taking Shun Brown's spot in the slot, which proved to be a valuable position in this offense last season (64 receptions, 655 yards). His touchdown upside is limited from that position, but that's less a concern if he can rack up receptions.
• Boobie Curry ($4,000) is an interesting GPP play. He's the highest-rated receiver on the roster in terms of his recruiting background and he's got the size (6-2, 206) to be a red zone threat in a way that none of the other starting receivers truly offer.

Moving to the Miami-Florida game, the implied low tempo and low score makes this a contest to avoid stacking in terms of the passing game. There are some affordable pieces to help round out your lineups, however.

• Florida's Van Jefferson ($5,100) was far-and-away the top target in the Gator offense in 2018, commanding a strong 20 percent of the target share. He'll be quarterback Feleipe Franks' No.1 option again Saturday, and he's got a cheap salary for that type of role.
• Miami's passing game projects to be the worst of any unit on the slate. It's tough to trust Jarren Williams behind a very green offensive line to begin with. And when he's going against a stout Florida defense, it's doubly concerning. If you're throwing caution to the wind though, there are a couple of options worth considering in tournaments.
  • Jeff Thomas ($5,300) is a big play waiting to happen, having averaged over 18.0 yards per receptions through his first two seasons
  • K.J. Osborn ($5,000) has size on the outside that none of the other Miami receivers offer, and he's got a proven track record after three productive seasons at Buffalo, highlighted by his 892 yards and seven scores in 2018.
  • For tournaments, tight end Brevin Jordan ($3,700) should be a good way to separate yourself from the field. He's healthy and immensely talented as a former five-star recruit. At 6-3, 245 with fluid movement skills, Jordan could be the type of mismatch in coverage that Miami can exploit down the seam. Touchdown upside makes him worth a dart if you need to dip into the sub-$4,000 well.