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College Football Picks: Kansas State vs. Texas Best Bets
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Kansas State vs. Texas Betting Odds for Week 10
Spread: Kansas State +4.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook); Texas -4 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 49.5 (Over, -105 FanDuel Sportsbook); 50.5 (Under, -110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Kansas State +165 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Texas -185 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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The Wildcats roll into the heart of Texas, looking to stay hot. Kansas State has picked up three consecutive wins and covers since a stunning 29-21 loss at Oklahoma State as an 11.5-point favorite on Oct. 6, although that loss is looking better by the day, with the Cowboys playing much better lately.
K-State has won each of three games in the winning streak against Texas Tech, TCU and Houston by at least 17 points, including a combined 82-3 in the past two outings against the Horned Frogs and the Cougars. The Wildcats have been pretty impressive on offense this season, going for at least 38 points in three in a row and six of eight games while going for 21 or more points in every contest this season.
Texas is coming off a pair of victories against Big 12 newcomers Houston and BYU, grabbing wins against those conference members before heading out the door for the SEC. The 35-6 win over BYU last week was particularly impressive, covering a 20.5-point spread at the DKR in Austin, especially since it was redshirt freshman QB Maalik Murphy making the start.
Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers was knocked out of the Houston win with a sprained AC joint, and the team has been fairly mum about the injury. He is simply listed as week-to-week. Don't expect to see him against K-State, leaving Murphy to start in a huge game.
It's been a nice bounce back for the Longhorns after the disappointment of losing 34-30 in the Red River rivalry game in Dallas against Oklahoma. As it stands, Texas has a pair of wins over ranked teams, romping at home against Kansas on Sept. 30 while winning that marquee matchup at Alabama on Sept. 9.
Texas needs to keep its foot on the gas, as all is not lost despite the setback to OU, and it can still accomplish big things. The Longhorns opened at No. 7 in the CFP Top 25 rankings, lurking just behind Oregon and Washington, who could potentially face each other in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and then, of course, Michigan and Ohio State, ahead of the Longhorns, face each other, too.
Kansas State has covered in six of eight games so far this season, although it is just 1-2 straight up (SU) and 1-2 against the spread (ATS) on the road. The Over is 2-1 in three games on the road for the Wildcats, too.
Texas stopped a season-high two-game non-cover streak with the win and cover over BYU, and it is now 4-0 straight up in Austin while covering the past two at home after an 0-2 ATS start in the non-conference portion of the schedule.
Kansas State vs. Texas Betting Picks for Week 10
The Wildcats haven't won against the Longhorns since Oct. 22, 2016, in Manhattan, as Texas has won six in a row in the series while covering the past three. The Longhorns own a slight 13-10 all-time series edge, although it has been dominant at home. Texas hasn't lost to K-State at the DKR since Nov. 19, 2011, a 17-13 setback.
The Wildcats have used a tried and true combination to get it done this season. K-State ranks 15th in the nation in total yards per game (464.6), while checking in 5th in rushing yards per contest (226.0). That has equated to 37.4 points per game, good for 13th in the country. Defensively, the Wildcats have allowed just 15.9 PPG, and they're particularly tough on the run, conceding just 109.4 yards per game.
Texas has been very similar in style, going for 454.1 total yards per game and 34.5 points per game, both 23rd or better in the country. It's a little more balanced on offense in terms of passing and rushing. Defensively, the Longhorns allowed just 16.0 PPG, ranking 15th, while yielding just 97.9 yards per contest, also good for 15th. The stats are nearly identical on both sides, so this one should be good from Austin.
I like the experience (and the health) of QB Will Howard for the visitors. He has completed 63.7% of his pass attempts for 1,628 yards, 14 TD and 7 INT, while also running for 313 yards and six touchdowns. He is a dual-threat option and one of four scoring threats on the ground for the Wildcats. K-State has four players with three or more TDs this season on the ground.
I don't know if the Wildcats can win it, as they have struggled on the road. But health is on their side, and as long as they're catching more than three and a hook, I like the visitors.
Kansas State vs. Texas Expert Pick: Kansas State +4.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Kansas State vs. Texas Predictions for Week 10
As far as the total is concerned in this game, prospective bettors should be looking to go low. The Wildcats locked it down in the past two weekends with a shutout of Houston and just a single field goal allowed against TCU. The Under has cashed in three of the past four games for Kansas State, and the total went Over in the first three games against FBS opponents.
For the Longhorns, the Under is on a 5-1 run across the past six outings, and Texas is going to need to rely a little more heavily on its defense, with Ewers likely to be in an arm sling still, rather than under center. All four games this season in Austin have cashed Under for the Longhorns.
In addition to that, keep in mind that Texas has cashed the first-half Under in five of the past seven games at home. I'd play that lightly at Under 24.5 (-114 at FanDuel), but the game total is still a much better play. This should be a defensive slog that comes down to the bitter end.
