This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Best Bets
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Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Betting Odds for Week 9
Spread: Ohio State -14.5 (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook); Wisconsin +14.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 44.5 (Over, -115 FanDuel Sportsbook); 45.5 (Under, -110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Ohio State -650 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Wisconsin +475 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes picked up a convincing 20-12 win in a top-10 matchup against the previously unbeaten Penn State Nittany Lions at "The Horseshoe" last weekend in Columbus. That's three wins over a ranked team for the Buckeyes, including a 17-14 road win on the final play at Notre Dame on Sept. 23, although the Buckeyes narrowly missed the cover as a 3.5-point favorite at most shops.
The Badgers trailed 21-7 after three quarters in Illinois last weekend against old friend Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini. It was still down 21-10 until a touchdown and two-point conversion to make it 21-18. That was key, as a touchdown and simply extra point with 27 ticks left in regulation gave it a 25-21, and Wisconsin, laying 3.5 points at most shops, ended up serving Illinois bettors with a slice of bad beat pie.
More importantly, Wisconsin barely beat Illinois. It lost to a toothless Iowa offense by a 15-6 count at Camp Randall Stadium the weekend before. The Badgers are just 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, and the offense has to do without starting QB Tanner Mordecai, as he is sidelined indefinitely due to a hand injury. With several receivers on the shelf, the passing game is a mess right now. No Badger has more than one receiving score this season, with WR Will Pauling being the best bet with 37 receptions, 398 yards and a score.
The run game, as you would expect from Wisconsin, is strong. RB Braelon Allen has 704 yards and eight scores with a 5.9 average per carry, with RB Chez Mellusi going for 306 yards and four touchdowns with 6.0 yards per tote. But the Buckeyes rank No. 18 in the country with just 100.6 rushing yards per game allowed while ranking sixth or better in total yards allowed (260.1), passing yards (159.6) and total points allowed (10.0) per game. The Ohio State defense won't be tricked or beaten by a one-dimensional offense.
And we haven't even talked about the offense. Ohio State's QB Kyle McCord might not ever receive his flowers like previous signal callers C.J. Stroud, Justin Fields or Dwayne Haskins, but he has been steadily improving, and there is still plenty of time for the passer. And he has the dynamic QB Marvin Harrison Jr., as well as WR Emeka Egbuka and TE Cade Stover, plus a strong run game with RB TreVeyon Henderson.
Backup QB Devin Brown is sidelined with an ankle injury, so it's all McCord's show now. RB Chip Trayanum is battling an undisclosed injury, and he is questionable for the game in Madison. Egbuka is nursing a leg injury, making him a 50-50 proposition, too. Regardless, Ohio State should still be able to roll.
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Betting Picks for Week 9
Laying two touchdowns or more at Camp Randall seems ludicrous, but this is a very beatable Badgers team. They're playing with a backup quarterback, and the offense is rather run-heavy, which is tough for teams who cannot stop the run. Ohio State is not one of those kind of teams.
I expect Ohio State to open the game with a quick touchdown on the first drive while building a sizeable first-half lead. In fact, if you're a single-game parlay player, there are a handful of things to like in this game.
First, lay the points with Ohio State overall. Wisconsin won't give it much trouble at all. Second, playing Under 14.5 Home Total Points (-113) is a good bet, as the Badgers couldn't solve Iowa for more than six points, and it certainly won't have an easier time against a substantially better Buckeyes defense. Three, lay the first-half points with Ohio State, going -7.5 (-105) in the first 30 minutes. That three-part SGP pays +194. The part I have the most confidence in is the Wisconsin point total part, as I just don't see this offense doing much against Ohio State.
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Expert Pick: Wisconsin Under 14.5 Total Points - Game (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Predictions for Week 9
The Buckeyes' defense has helped Under bettors cash in four straight outings, six of seven games overall, and all three road contests to date. Ohio State has allowed 12, 7, 17, 14, 10, 7 and 3 points this season, so again, that's why I love the Under 14.5 total points for Wisconsin. Do you really think the Badgers are going to roll up a season-high point total on this defense?
On the flip side, the Badgers have allowed 17 or fewer points in five of seven games to date, cashing the Under in four of the past six games overall. This is an offense that is rather one-track, while it has a very good defense. That's a good sign for total bettors going low.
The total has gone low in three of the past four meetings in this series, too, while going 3-1-1 in the past five encounters at Camp Randall. That lone push was the last win for Wisconsin in the series, a 31-18 victory in 2010, as QB Scott Tolzien, RB John Clay and WR Nick Toon won the day. Yeah, it's been a while.
