This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Orange Bowl Picks: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
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Notre Dame vs. Penn State Orange Bowl Betting Odds
Spread: Notre Dame -1 (Even, ESPN Bet); Penn State +1.5 (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 44.5 (-115, ESPN Bet); Under 45.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -110 (ESPN Bet); Penn State -102 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Notre Dame vs. Penn State Orange Bowl Betting Picks
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) and Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) square off in the first College Football Playoffs Semifinal game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., Thursday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
The winner of this game will play the winner of the Ohio State-Texas game for the national championship on Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Notre Dame has been impressive in these playoffs so far. In the first round, it opened with a 27-17 victory over Indiana in South Bend, covering as a 6.5-point favorite. With less than five minutes to go in regulation, the Fighting Irish led 27-3 against the Hoosiers, but Indiana scored two late touchdowns to make things appear closer than they actually were.
RB Jeremiyah Love opened that game with a 98-yard touchdown run just 4:03 into play, setting the ton. That was a big chunk of the 193 rushing yards the Fighting Irish posted while adding 201 passing yards. Notre Dame was penalized six times, and that's something it needs to work on.
In the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, the Fighting Irish faced Georgia in a game postponed one day due to an ugly terrorist situation on Bourbon Street after a pickup truck driven by a madman killed 14 innocent tourists around 3:15 a.m. ET. The Irish showed tremendous focus despite the difficult circumstances, topping perennial powerhouse Georgia 23-10.
The highlight of the victory over UGA might have been a 98-yard kickoff return from Jayden Harrison, the Irish's second straight game with a touchdown of that yardage length. Notre Dame limited Georgia to just 62 rushing yards while holding the Dawgs to 234 passing yards. QB Riley Leonard passed for just 90 yards, but he had a touchdown pass while running for a team-high 80 yards. Love was quiet after his big game against IU, going for just 19 yards on six totes.
Penn State stomped SMU 38-10 in the first round in State College, cashing easily as a 9-point favorite as the Under (51) cashed. The Nittany Lions went out to the Fiesta Bowl and scorched Boise State and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty by a 31-14 score, covering as an 11.5-point favorite as the Under (54.5) cashed once more.
The Nittany Lions limited Jeanty and the Broncos to 108 rushing yards, and Penn State's defense posted a plus-3 rating in turnover margin.
QB Drew Allar had a tremendous game for Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, throwing for 171 yards and three touchdowns, although he wasn't terribly accurate at 13-of-25 (52.0%) on his passing attempts. He was plenty accurate finding TE Tyler Warren, however, as the tight end absorbed six of his 11 targets for 63 yards and two touchdowns. WR Omari Evans, blanked against SMU, posted 55 yards and a touchdown against Boise State.
Notre Dame has not only won 12 straight games since an absolutely stunning 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, when it was a 28-point favorite, but the Fighting Irish have also covered 10 in a row since Sept. 28. The team's last cover came on Sept. 21, when it won 28-3 over Miami (Ohio), just missing as a 27-point favorite.
Penn State has lost two of the past eight games, both against playoff teams Ohio State and Oregon. It is also just 6-6 ATS in the same 12-game span.
Let's back Notre Dame to get the job done, laying a point.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State Expert Pick: Fighting Irish -1 (Even at ESPN Bet)
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Notre Dame vs. Penn State Predictions for Orange Bowl
As far as the total is concerned, both of these teams have cashed the Under in the first two playoff games.
In fact, Penn State has allowed just 12.0 PPG in the two playoff games against SMU and Boise State, and the Under has a slight 5-4 edge in the past nine games since Oct. 26.
The Nittany Lions have allowed just 288.8 total yards per game, ranking fifth in the nation, while limiting the opposition to 100.9 rushing yards per game to rank ninth. In addition, the 15.8 PPG allowed this season ranks seventh. If there is an Achilles' heel for the Nittany Lions, they allowed 187.9 passing yards, but even that is a pretty good number.
For Notre Dame, they've allowed just 13.5 PPG in two games against powerful offenses Indiana and Georgia.
The Fighting Irish have a similar lockdown defense, allowing just 295.4 total yards per game to rank seventh in the nation while allowing only 167.4 passing yards per game to check in fifth. The 13.6 PPG also ranked No. 2 in the country. If Notre Dame's D has a soft spot, it's against the run, allowing 127.9 yards per game to rank 34th, but that's also still very solid.
Defense should reign supreme in this game, and playing Notre Dame while going low makes for a very nice Same-Game Parlay (SGP).
