This article is part of our Start vs. Sit series.
Welp, things got a little weird last weekend, huh? Clemson, Michigan, Washington, Auburn, and Texas A&M all took spills while Ohio State took care of business with another dominant performance to vault the Buckeyes to the No. 2 spot in the playoff rankings. Just like last week, there aren't a ton of ranked matchups to enjoy this week (shout out to the SEC for using Week 12 as a vacation), but there are two games in particular that are drawing my attention. Washington State can get one step closer to clinching a Pac-12 North championship, but going to Boulder to face a feisty Colorado team will be a major challenge. In the forgotten Big 12, West Virginia will take on Oklahoma as both teams look to get into the good graces of the playoff committee. For the purposes of this article, the playoffs are already in full swing for fantasy purposes and lineup decisions this week can mean the difference between a championship or a participation trophy. Here are my picks for this week that will (hopefully) make your game-time decisions a little easier. As always, feel free to ask any specific lineup questions in the comment section below.
PLAYERS TO START
AAC
Tion Green, RB, Cincinnati (vs. Memphis): With Mike Boone (foot) officially done for the season, Green has little competition for carries out of the Bearcats backfield. Green is up to 133 carries for 635 yards and two scores on the year, which isn't overly impressive on its surface, but it's important to note that Boone was eating into Green's workload by averaging over 11 carries a game. Now that Green is the clear-cut feature back, he should get the ball at least 15 times against a Memphis run defense that's among the worst in the nation and certainly among AAC teams. The Tigers are giving up a whopping 5.2 yards/carry to opposing runners and they've allowed 23 rushing touchdowns on the season. Tulsa's James Flanders also deserves a start this week against UCF.
ACC
Marcus Marshall, RB, Georgia Tech (vs. Virginia): Dedrick Mills' suspension gave Marshall the opportunity to shine last week, and Marshall answered the bell by taking 19 carries for 143 yards and a score. The most impressive part of Marshall's best game of the season was the fact that it came against a Virginia Tech defense that's gained a reputation for slowing ground games. Mills remains sidelined this week, which should mean another start for Marshall. This time, Marshall gets to go against UVA's middling run defense that's giving up roughly 4.5 YPC to conference opponents this season. Look for Marshall to see plenty of carries in Georgia Tech's triple option scheme, and he should have plenty of wide-open lanes to run through against the Cavaliers.
Big 12
David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State (vs. Texas Tech): Mike Warren may seem like the top back for the Cyclones, but he's clearly still a bit slowed by his ankle injury and Montgomery has picked up the slack. Montgomery had a career day Saturday against Kansas with 24 carries for 169 yards. Yes, that came against Kansas, but the matchup this week is even more favorable. The Red Raiders rank 122nd in the nation with 6.1 YPC against conference foes, and they've allowed 19 rushing touchdowns. Even if Warren gets more involved in the game plan this week, Montgomery has shown enough in recent weeks to still see plenty of carries Saturday. Toss in the fact that Iowa State has a hapless passing attack and it makes sense for Montgomery and Warren to see anywhere from 15-to-20 carries apiece against Texas Tech. In any case, Montgomery should have very little trouble finding room to run Saturday. Among more mainstream players, Baker Mayfield is still worthy of a start despite a tough matchup on the road against West Virginia.
Big Ten
Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State (@ Rutgers): The first-year starter has the Penn State offense rolling right now with the Nittany Lions racking up 40 or more points in each of the last three weeks. McSorley has played a huge role in the offensive explosion, accounting for eight total touchdowns in that span. Two of those touchdowns have come on the ground, which has made him a useful late-season addition to many teams. This week's matchup against Rutgers is about as big of a chalk play as can be, so if you've been biding your time waiting to use him, this would be the week to do so. Rutgers is putrid across the board and Penn State will surely want to take care of business especially now that the Playoff Committee may be paying a bit more attention to the Nittany Lions amid all the turmoil among the playoff hopefuls. Look for McSorley to contribute several touchdowns Saturday in what should be an easy rout.
Conference USA
I'Tavius Mathers, RB, Middle Tennessee (@ Charlotte): This is a bit of an obvious pick, but with Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech on byes, the number of truly viable starters from Conference USA was smaller than usual. Mathers has been excellent all season, racking up 1,190 yards on 6.4 YPC while reaching the end zone 13 times. However, last week was the first week we've seen a crack in Mathers' armor, as he was held to 45 yards on 15 carries against Marshall. The concerning part here is that Marshall was able to sell out on the run because MTSU's starting quarterback, Brent Stockstill, is out for the season. Charlotte will likely also load up to slow down Mathers on Saturday, but Mathers should be able to bounce back against a 49ers defense that's giving up 4.2 YPC and has allowed 22 touchdowns on the ground. Even if Middle Tennessee's offense isn't nearly as balanced without Stockstill, Mathers is still strong enough to post viable fantasy numbers. Ray Lawry of Old Dominion also draws a great matchup this week against the worst run defense in Conference USA (Florida Atlantic).
MAC
Logan Woodside, QB, Toledo (vs. Ball State): Tuesday night MACtion this week takes Kent State, Bowling Green, Ohio, and Central Michigan out of the available player pool for the MAC section of this article. However, Woodside is still available, and he's got the type of matchup that could result in him being the top producing quarterback this week. Although he's not a threat as a runner, Woodside has some of the best pure passing numbers in the nation this season, as he's thrown an FBS-leading 37 touchdowns to go with a 70.8 completion percentage and 10.1 YPA. This week he gets Ball State, which has arguably the worst secondary in the MAC. With fantasy playoffs in full swing, don't hesitate to use Woodside over a more high-profile name this week.
Mountain West
Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State (vs. New Mexico): If you took Nick Grays' sage advice last week and nabbed Gallup off the wire, this is the week to start him with confidence. Gallup is having a breakout season and is coming off the best performance of his career, a 13-catch, 213-yard masterpiece against Air Force. He's on an absolute tear with touchdowns in each of his last five games and he draws a matchup against one of the worst pass defenses in the Mountain West. The Lobos are giving up a 147.42 rating to opposing quarterbacks and the 20 touchdowns they've allowed through the air is tied for the second worst mark in the conference. Look for Gallup to rack up gaudy catch numbers and extend his touchdown streak Saturday in Fort Collins.
Pac-12
Tavares Martin, WR, Washington State (@ Colorado): Gabe Marks is the obvious must-start call from the Wazzu receiving corps this week, but Martin is worth consideration this week as well. River Cracraft, the team's second-leading receiver, suffered a torn ACL on Saturday and will miss the remainder of the season, which opens the door for Martin to pick up additional targets in the Cougars' pass-happy attack. Martin has already had an excellent season in his own right (54 catches, 587 yards, seven touchdowns), but the matchup against Colorado might be enough to give some owners pause. The Buffs have the toughest secondary in the Pac-12 with 12 picks against nine touchdowns in addition to a meager 50.9 completion percentage allowed. While Martin may not be a lock to absolutely blow up this week, his increased role in the air-raid offense should result in a productive day from the sophomore wideout.
SEC
Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State (vs. Arkansas): As is tradition, the SEC is littered with cupcake matchups the week before Rivalry Weekend. With that, I wanted to avoid tossing out no-brainer plays from the schools going against the Chattanoogas and Austin Peays of the world. Fitzgerald leads the Bulldogs into action against the Razorbacks, and his skillset is a matchup nightmare for coach Bret Bielema and company. As evidenced by MSU's thrilling victory over Texas A&M, Fitzgerald's mobility is a problem for nearly any SEC defense. Making matters worse for the Hogs, they can't stop the run whatsoever. The Razorbacks have allowed 6.3 yards per rush and 29 rushing touchdowns this season, both figures among the worst in the nation. Woof. To make matters worse for Arkansas, Fitzgerald's three biggest rushing outputs this season have come at home. Look for Fitzgerald to run wild Saturday.
Sun Belt
Thomas Koufie, RB, Louisiana-Monroe (@ Appalachian State): This could be a case of recency bias creeping in, but Koufie's 201-yard, five-touchdown performance against Georgia State is tough to ignore. Ben Luckett, who had been the Warhawks' workhorse for much of the season, appears to have lost the starting role to the red-hot Koufie. The 220-pound Koufie draws an undoubtedly tough test Saturday in facing a run defense that's one of the best in the Sun Belt, but he's built to carry the load and could create some issues for the Mountaineers. This isn't a prediction that Koufie will repeat his five-touchdown outing this week, but if he's a recent waiver-wire addition of yours, he'll make for a viable flex play this week.
PLAYERS TO SIT
AAC
Greg Ward, QB, Houston (vs. Louisville): Houston has shown a tendency to rise to the occasion and fill the David role when facing Goliath-type opponents, as evidenced by the Cougars' wins over Florida State and Oklahoma over the last couple of seasons. Ward has been the driving force behind those wins, whether it was running for two touchdowns against the Seminoles or torching the Sooners for 321 yards and two scores through the air. This week certainly fits the bill of another potential signature win for the Cougars, but Louisville is right in the thick of the playoff hunt and needs to make a statement of its own. The Cardinals are allowing just 20.3 points per game, which puts them at No. 16 nationally. Given that Ward is the key cog in Houston's offense, Louisville will be intent on negating his impact. Ward's rushing numbers have already fallen off a cliff compared to last year's 1,000-yard effort, and he could have a tough time gaining much momentum on the ground this week. Furthermore, Ward has been bothered by a shoulder injury this season. The ailment has only cost him one game, but it was clearly still an issue when he aggravated it against Tulane and missed a handful of series before being thrust back into action following Kyle Postma's injury. If you own Ward, you probably spent a high draft selection to roster him, but you'll need to swallow your pride this week and ride with a different option at quarterback.
ACC
Mark Walton, RB, Miami (@ North Carolina State): Walton's current run of 100-yard games coupled with a seemingly favorable matchup would usually land him a spot in the Start section of this article, but there are a few reasons as to why he should be benched in Week 12. For one, North Carolina State has been strong against the run in conference play, allowing just 3.0 YPC in six ACC games, including holding Clemson and Louisville to a combined 280 yards on 83 rushing attempts (3.4 YPC). On the other side of the coin, Walton plays in a crowded backfield. Although Walton is the clear No. 1 option, Joseph Yearby and Gus Edwards are both talented enough to steal some carries. Edwards, in particular, is coming off one of his best games of the season with 11 carries for 68 yards; that production could result in him seeing double-digit carries yet again Saturday.
Big 12
Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma (@ West Virginia): To be clear, Perine isn't a must-sit this week, but in shallower formats, your roster might have some options with more favorable matchups. West Virginia will have its hands full trying to slow down Oklahoma's explosive offense that features weapons like Perine, Joe Mixon, and Dede Westbrook. That said, if there's one defense in the Big 12 that's up to the task, it's West Virginia's, especially in Morgantown. This is a Mountaineers defense that held Texas Tech to 17 points on the road. The issue with Perine that concerns me this week is that West Virginia is better equipped to slow down a more one-dimensional back like him than it is to stop a versatile back like Mixon, whose pass-catching ability might result in him seeing far more snaps than his backfield counterpart. Again, Perine's size and speed will prevent him from getting completely shut down this week, but he's far from a must-start in most formats.
Big Ten
Jordan Westerkamp, WR, Nebraska (vs. Maryland): It might not make a ton of sense on its surface to sit someone who is facing a Maryland defense that's given up 122 points over the last two weeks, but bear with me here. Nebraska doesn't have the explosiveness of Ohio State's offense, nor does it have the bludgeoning brute force of Michigan's system, so there's less of a chance of the Cornhuskers putting up astronomical offensive numbers Saturday. Furthermore, Nebraska may be playing with a banged-up quarterback as Tommy Armstrong is battling knee and ankle injuries. Even if he does play, he'll likely be limited, which puts a definite cap on Westerkamp's upside. Westerkamp is the team's leading receiver and he is finally healthy, but the shaky quarterback play has held him back all season. He has just one game above 70 yards receiving this season and he hasn't found the end zone in any of his last five games. He could buck one of those trends this week, but the concept of him posting breakout numbers against (what had been) a competent secondary when either a banged-up Armstrong or an inexperienced Ryker Fyfe will be under center seems unlikely.
Conference USA
Greg Howell, RB, Florida Atlantic (vs. Old Dominion): Howell is having a strong junior campaign with 5.1 yards/carry and 11 touchdowns. He's within striking distance of the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career as well, needing 272 yards over the final two weeks. Unfortunately, Old Dominion's run defense is respectable by Sun Belt standards (outside of last week's game against Southern Miss). The Monarchs are favored by 8.5 points on the road, suggesting that FAU will likely be playing from behind and will need to the go to the air more often than usual.
MAC
James Gilbert, RB, Ball State (@ Toledo): Gilbert's place in the Sit section has more to do with game-flow issues than anything else. The Cardinals are 20.5-point underdogs Wednesday, meaning that Ball State might have to abandon the run game in the early going. Gilbert has no doubt been impressive this year with 1,196 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. That said, 11 of those scores have come in the red zone and it's going to be difficult for the Cardinals to get deep into Toledo territory given that the Rockets have been holding MAC opponents to just 24.0 PPG.
Mountain West
Brian Hill, RB, Wyoming (vs. San Diego State): It's tough to bench a running back that ranks third in the nation in yards per game (141.7), but Hill might need to find a spot on the bench in most formats this week. San Diego State's run defense will put Hill's matchup-proof status to the test Saturday. The Aztecs haven't allowed 100 yards on the ground to any team since its Oct. 8 matchup against UNLV, when the Rebels picked up 113 rushing yards. Furthermore, the Aztecs have allowed just one rushing touchdown since Oct. 1. Hill should still see a healthy workload Saturday in what should be the most exciting matchup in the Mountain West this week, but San Diego State's run defense might be too tough to risk using the star running back during the fantasy playoffs.
Pac-12
Davis Webb, QB, California (vs. Stanford): "The Big Game" is set for this week as these two schools that would've laughed at my application square off for the 119th time. Webb, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this season, will get his first taste of the rivalry Saturday. While Stanford isn't getting the buzz it usually does this time of year thanks to some early-season struggles, the Cardinal has buckled down of late. Stanford has allowed 195.5 passing yards per game since the start of October while picking off nine passes and surrendering just nine passing touchdowns. Obviously Cal's system will all but certainly surpass that 195.5-yard mark with Webb under center, but he's going to have a difficult time reaching his season averages of 360 yards and three touchdowns Saturday against a stout and opportunistic Stanford defense. Unless your league has a 20-team, two-quarterback format, Webb is a bench candidate this week.
SEC
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida (@ LSU): Callaway is one of the SEC's most-talented receivers and he's actually been more explosive with Austin Appleby under center for the Gators, but a trip to Death Valley is going to make it difficult to keep that going. LSU has a lockdown defense littered with future NFL talent that'll be sure to keep a close eye on Callaway, who is Florida's only true downfield threat in the passing game. In this same game, it'll be worth monitoring Leonard Fournette's progress throughout the week, given that he aggravated his nagging ankle injury against Arkansas.
Sun Belt
Warren Wand, RB, Arkansas State (@ Troy): Wand is the Red Wolves' top option in the run game and he's coming off one of his best outings of the season, a 91-yard performance that netted a pair of rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, his matchup this week makes him unstartable in all formats. Troy, who is now ranked 25th in the nation, sports the toughest run defense in the Sun Belt, allowing 3.2 YPC on the ground. It's difficult to imagine a back of Wand's stature (5-5, 179) to have much success against such an aggressive and swarming Troy front.
