Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 4

Welcome into the Week 4 installment of Start vs. Sit. We made it through the doldrums that were the Week 3 slate and now we have several ranked matchups to look forward to, as well as some gems with several teams opening conference play. 

The Wisconsin-Michigan game already has RotoWire HQ in Madison buzzing, and I'm already searching for a safe, padded room to watch the Georgia-Notre Dame game. Other games like Texas-Oklahoma State and Texas A&M-Auburn will be fun, and UNC-App State makes for an interesting undercard showdown in the Tar Heel state.

AAC

Start

Justin McMillan, QB, Tulane vs Houston

Houston's defense ranks 107th in defensive S&P+. Now, having to go against Washington State and Oklahoma in two of your first three games won't help your defensive ratings much, but I'm not overly inclined to give this Cougs defense the benefit of the doubt when it doesn't have an Ed Oliver type anymore. Tulane can play bully ball against the Cougars, and it starts with McMillan. He has been efficient outside the Auburn game, completing 27 of 34 passes for 321 yards and two scores in those outings. McMillan can also do damage with his legs, having racked up three rushing scores and 154 yards on the ground already. Getting to go up against a toothless Houston defense at home is a sneakily good spot for McMillan in Week 4.

Sit

Shane Buechele, QB, SMU at TCU

TCU's defense is pretty scary. It's only been two games, and one of them came against an FCS team and the other came when TCU was coming off a bye and facing a backup quarterback. Still, 209 yards allowed per game is nothing to thumb your nose at. Nor is holding Rondale Moore to 25 yards on four targets. 

Buechele, with Big 12 experience of his own from his Texas days, won't be star struck by the level of competition. But the fact remains that this is a TCU defense that will give the Big 12 problems this season, and this SMU offense might not be ready for four quarters of this type of onslaught. TCU's defense isn't the only problem, either.

The Horned Frogs' run-first, possession-based approach to offense grinds other teams down and limits their chances. TCU ranks fifth in average time of possession (36:11), and that helped slow Purdue to 54 plays from scrimmage --a far cry from the 75.5 average it had entering Week 3. This is not only Buechele's toughest test to date this season, but it's also one where he could get his opportunities limited to the point where the passing attempt volume his fantasy value relies on gets drastically reduced.

I'd also be skittish on starting Tulsa's Shamari Brooks against Wyoming's run defense. 

ACC

Start

Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State vs. Louisville

Terry and Cam Akers have been the lone bright spots in another disastrous start to the season under coach Willie Taggart. No one comes close to Terry's volume in the passing game — he averages nine targets per game, which accounts for more than a quarter of the team's total targets. And while the efficiency could be better than his 51 percent catch rate, Terry is still producing starter-level numbers. 

He faces a Louisville defense this week that ranks a middling 57th in S&P+ and just let Western Kentucky throw for three touchdowns. The team around Terry might be shaky, but his role is solidified and there's no one in Louisville's secondary who can keep him in check for 60 minutes. 

Sit

A.J. Davis, RB, Pitt  vs. UCF 

Davis has taken over as the clear No. 1 option in the Pitt backfield and has been especially productive as a pass catcher, reeling in 10 of 12 targets for 166 yards. That passing game usage might keep him afloat Saturday, but it's tough to justify giving him a starting spot this week given the matchup. 

Central Florida has lived up to its offensive reputation, of course, but the defense has been every bit as good. The Knights hold opponents to just 2.7 YPC and 85.67 rushing yards per game. They also hold the No. 32 rating in S&P+ on that side of the ball.  Davis may see the bulk of the backfield work Saturday but his middling production (4.1 YPC, one touchdown) likely won't get a boost going against Central Florida.

BIG 12

Start

Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU vs. SMU

The eight catches for 100 yards on 16 targets are nowhere near where Reagor investors expected him to be after two games. It's probably less than what his investors expected after one game. 

Keep the faith.

Even though TCU's quarterback situation is less than ideal (127th in team YPA), Reagor is too talented to stay at this pace for long. We're talking about a 1,000-yard receiver from 2018 who averaged just 0.2 less fantasy points per game than Marquise Brown. This is the week Reagor regains his form with a favorable matchup against SMU's 92nd-ranked defense in S&P+.

Sit

Dillon Stoner, WR, Oklahoma State vs. Texas

Stoner ranks second on the team in targets (14), catches (12) and yards (88). What that tells us, more than anything, is how massive Tylan Wallace is to this offense. Players like C.J. Moore (25 YPT) and Braydon Johnson (35.5 YPT) are more explosive than Stoner, too. And while Stoner may have the volume edge thanks to his chain-moving function in the offense, how much do the 'Pokes really need him when they have Tylan Wallace, Chuba Hubbard and Spencer Sanders generating explosive plays? Having a piece of the Oklahoma State offense is always a good idea in theory, but in Stoner's case, that's where it ends. In practice, Stoner would be a waste of a starting spot this week, even in a game with an over/under sitting at 73.

BIG TEN

Start

Stevie Scott, RB, Indiana vs. Connecticut

The returns on the Scott investments haven't been ideal to this point: 3.19 yards per carry over 37 rushes. 118 rushing yards, 181 total yards and three touchdowns in three games. The Ohio State matchup was particularly bleak with six carries for nine yards. But nothing cures what ails you more than playing Connecticut in a game of American football.  

Connecticut has given up 4.16 yards per carry, which ranks 83rd in the nation. To make matters worse, that number has been generated against the likes of Illinois and Wagner. Indiana isn't a powerhouse, but this is a must-start situation for Scott this week. There's a reason Scott ranks in out top 20 at running back this week despite the slow start. 

Sit

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Michigan at Wisconsin

Wisconsin is rested after a bye and at home. Wisconsin has also allowed 41 rushing yards on 44 rushing attempts through two games. Now, neither South Florida nor Central Michigan come close to what Michigan brings up front, but that level of dominance shouldn't just be ignored. 

There's no doubt that Charbonnet is impressive as a runner and has taken a stranglehold on the starting running back job with 41 rushes through two games while no other Wolverine has 14 attempts. An implied low-scoring game where Michigan is a slight underdog is not a great setup for Charbonnet, especially against a defense of this caliber. 

CONFERENCE USA

Start

Conference USA has a wonky Week 4 schedule.  I'm not going to tell you to start a Charlotte guy against Clemson or a Southern Mississippi guy against Alabama. I also won't waste the "Sit' section on either of those teams because I give you, dear reader, more credit than that. So let's get into one side of a conference matchup between Louisiana Tech and FIU.

Smith has improved as a passer compared to his previous seasons at the helm of the Louisiana Tech offense. He's completing 68.6 percent of his passes with an 8.0 YPA after completing 56.7 percent of his passes with a 7.1 YPA in 2017-2018. He was surgical against Bowling Green, completing 73 percent of his passes with a 10.3 YPA with two touchdowns. Now he gets to face an FIU team that ranks 100th in overall S&P+ and 65th defensively. Not to knock my earlier pick of Justin McMillan, but he completed almost 80 percent of his passes with two touchdowns against this FIU defense. This is a good spot for Smith as he opens the Conference USA portion of the schedule.

Sit

Frank Harris, QB, UTSA at North Texas

Harris leads a Roadrunners offense that has an implied total under 20 and his rushing production has taken a nosedive since the season opener when he ran for 123 yards. Since then, Harris has just four total rushing yards and zero total touchdowns. In fairness, those games have come against Army and Baylor, two teams far superior to North Texas defensively. Still, the Harris that torched Incarnate Word for 31 fantasy points is likely a mirage, and a shaky outing against the Mean Green will be another step towards proving that. 

MAC

Start

Giovanni Ricci, TE, Western Michigan at Syracuse

Ricci is establishing himself as one of the nation's top fantasy tight ends, so punching up a weight class playing an ACC school shouldn't phase his owners. He has a 20.5 percent target share and is averaging an explosive 10.6 YPT. Syracuse, believe it or not, has an average defense in S&P+ at 51 despite giving up more than 100 points in the last two weeks. The problem is more so on the offensive side of the ball. 

For Ricci's purposes, this is still a startable spot. Quarterback Jon Wassink can keep the offense afloat enough to support Ricci's production and keep him as a top-10 player at his position this weekend. 

Sit

Drew Plitt, QB, Ball State at North Carolina State

Plitt has quietly been one of the more productive fantasy quarterbacks this season, with his average of 33.4 fantasy points ranking 11th in FBS and ahead of the likes of Arizona's Khalil Tate and even Houston's D'Eriq King (pause for dramatic effect). 

He also hasn't faced a defense that ranks higher than 50 in S&P+, and his average is inflated by a huge performance against Fordham. Plitt will still be a viable starter when Ball State starts MAC play, but going on the road to face a North Carolina State team that is coming off a rough loss in Morgantown and also has a defense that ranks 44th in S&P+. Unless you're completely out of other options, Plitt should be benched this week. 

MOUNTAIN WEST

Start

Marvin Kinsey, RB, Colorado State vs. Toledo

What happened to quarterback Collin Hill over the weekend, suffering the third torn ACL of his career, is just terrible. That level of bad luck almost feels impossible. But Colorado State must press on without him, and even though the receiving corps is talented enough to keep the offense afloat, the run game could become more crucial to this system. 

I can hear the "Run the dang ball, Bobo!" chorus from at least one of you.

But seriously, the Rams likely will have to rely on the run while Patrick O'Brien gets settled into his new role. Kinsey has dominated the backfield through three games with 30 more carries than any other Rams runner. And he's been efficient with that workload, taking his 45 carries for 310 yards (6.89 YPC) and a score while adding 163 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Getting to face a Toledo defense that is mediocre at best and playing in altitude sets up great for Kinsey this weekend.

Sit

Jaylen Warren, RB, Utah State at San Diego State

Warren has seemingly surpassed in Gerold Bright in the Utah State backfield and averages a strong 8.8 YPC through two games. This week, however, he gets a brutal matchup that limits his upside in a few ways. 

For one, the Aztecs have the sixth-ranked defense in S&P+ and have had impressive performances like holding UCLA's Joshua Kelley to 3.5 yards per carry. That alone makes it tough for the Aggies to get Warren going. Then there's the game script aspect; Utah State (80 plays per game) relies on playing an uptempo offense, and San Diego State thrives on bringing teams down to its plodding pace. San Diego State ranks 10th in time of possession per game, which could knock Utah State off schedule. So we're looking at a spot for Warren where he faces a brutally tough defense and will likely see a reduced carry count due to game flow. Look elsewhere at running back this week. 

PAC-12

Start

Salvon Ahmed, RB, Washington at BYU

BYU has shown to be a tough challenge for anyone this year outside of Utah in the second half of the opener. The Cougs rank 35th in defensive S&P+ and are the home team this week. If there's a weakness in that defense, though, it's against the run. It allows 225 rushing yards per game while the secondary gives up just 187 yards through the air. So while this might be a tough matchup for Jacob Eason and the passing game, this sets up well for Ahmed, who leads the team in rushes (44) and yards (246). Look for Ahmed to be heavily involved in the game plan this week as the Huskies look to exploit BYU's soft run defense.

Sit

Joshua Kelley, RB, UCLA at Washington State

I'm starting to lose the faith in Kelley a bit, and I lost the faith in Chip Kelly years ago. This offense isn't working in 2019 and Kelley is suffering as a result, averaging just 3.15 yards per carry. Washington State is arguably the softest matchup he's faced this season, but the blowout potential  means the touches could be limited. Washington State checks in as an 18.5-point favorite, so if UCLA falls behind early, Kelley's role could essentially be neutralized before he even gets to double-digit carries. I can't endorse dropping Kelley just yet, but we're getting close to that range. Leave him on the bench for this week at the very least.

SEC

Start

Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M vs. Auburn

The Aggies open SEC play with a showdown against an Auburn team that has a well-earned reputation for having  a strong defense, particularly in the trenches. Auburn ranks 4th in defensive S&P+ and is holding opponents to just 3.18 yards per carry.

With Jashaun Corbin down for the season, though, Spiller is now the lead back for the Aggies and he's shown promise over his 28 carries this season, going for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Now, that production wouldn't be the same without the cupcake matchup against Lamar, but there's reason to believe in Spiller as a viable starting running back given what he's done to this point plus his background as a top-10 running back in the 2019 recruiting cycle. 

There's also the matter of Auburn's Derrick Brown (upper body) being dinged up. If he's unavailable or limited, that takes a lot of the ferocity away from that Tiger defense. Look for Spiller to be the leading rusher for the Aggies this weekend who can also contribute in the passing game against a defense that may be missing its top guy. 

Looking elsewhere in the conference, I'd be confident starting all my players in the Missouri-South Carolina game, along with starting my Georgia players against Notre Dame.

Sit

Ty Chandler, RB, Tennessee at Florida

Chandler has proven to be Tennessee's best option in the backfield with 248 yards while averaging nearly 6.0 YPC. Even with Florida's loss of Feleipe Franks due to an ankle injury, the Gators are still two-touchdown favorites. With that, the Tennessee run game may go by the wayside. There's also the matter of the matchup itself — Florida ranks 11th in defensive S&P+ and I'm not sold that Tennessee is equipped to move the ball on that caliber of defense the way I am that Texas A&M can move it against a tougher Auburn defense. I'm off Chandler for Week 4. 

SUN BELT

Start

Trey Ragas, Elijah Mitchell, RB, UL Lafayette at Ohio

This game has one of the higher implied totals of the week at 65.5 and with Louisiana checking in at just 3.5-point road underdogs, there's an expectation that the Ragin' Cajuns will be putting up points on the Bobcats. 

Ragas and Mitchell — and even Raymond Calais to a lesser extent — form one of the Group of Five's most dynamic backfields. Mitchell is being held to just 4.9 yards per carry but leads the team in rushes (36) and touchdowns (4). His 6.7 YPC from last year suggests a surge may be coming, too. Meanwhile, Ragas averages 11.8 YPC over 23 attempts and has four total touchdowns. The fact that both players are in line to see double-digit carries against an Ohio defense that allows 5.18 YPC (115th) means that both Ragas and Mitchell get the green light for Week 4.

I'd also start my Appalachian State players at North Carolina. The 'Eers rank 5th in offensive S&P+ this season.

Sit

Kawaan Baker, WR, South Alabama at UAB

South Alabama is a significant road dog this week and is projected to put up less than three touchdowns on the Blazers. The Blazers, to their credit, rank a respectable 52nd in defensive S&P+ and have the clear edge when the 127th-ranked South Alabama offense has the ball. 

Baker may be the top South Alabama receiver but 19 targets in three games isn't the type of volume to make him a must-start player in all situations. Look for UAB to hold this South Alabama offense, and Baker by extension, in check on Saturday.