2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates: Players to Target

Identifying players who will outperform expectations is crucial for winning a fantasy football title. What does it take for a player to actually break out and return a handsome profit on his draft-day cost? Usually, it's improved skills or increased opportunities (ideally, both!) — young players who develop or players who benefit from a new team context (i.e., more carries or targets). Finding players who have a shot at both of those qualities is the ultimate breakout candidate. 

Here are breakout candidates for the 2023 fantasy season. Average draft position (ADP) is baded on 12-team leagues. 

Tony Pollard, RB, DAL
Summer ADP: No. 25, RB9

In Pollard's first three seasons he was a big-play threat off the bench, producing four carries of 40-plus yards on just 317 attempts. It was worth wondering whether Pollard could maintain that explosiveness over a bigger workload. Although it took an injury to Ezekiel Elliott to clear the runway, Pollard finally secured more work last October and the efficiency only improved with his promotion. Explosive role players sometimes look a step slower with a starter's workload, but for Pollard the opposite occurred, and he didn't slow down after Elliott's return. Pollard finished the season with numerous career highs, including 40-yard carries (three), rushing yards (1,007), receiving yards (371) and total TDs (12). Pollard might not ever be a 20-carry back given his thin frame (6-foot, 210) and lack of track record as a workhorse dating to college, but with Elliott gone he's locked in as the starter on a franchise tag and should see another workload increase in 2023, even if Dallas adds a veteran running back this summer.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, BAL
Summer ADP: No. 58, RB19

This isn't Dobbins' first time on the Breakout Players list; the brutal knee injury he suffered August 2021 delayed his arrival by two years. He didn't just tear his ACL, he also tore his LCL, PCL and hamstring, making it one of the cruelest injuries in recent memory. Dobbins made it back for Week 3 last year but then had only 162 total yards and 3.5 YPC over a four-game stretch before missing six more weeks to have an arthroscopic procedure on the surgically repaired knee. It was a triumph when Dobbins came back in December and then ripped off 505 total yards over his final games, averaging 6.6 YPC along the way. Another year removed from the injury and with the Baltimore offense potentially improving under new coordinator Todd Monken, Dobbins is poised to hit his own stride at the exact time that his team environment improves.

Cam Akers, RB, LAR
Summer ADP: No. 67, RB23

Like Dobbins, this is not Akers' first time in the Breakout Players list. Unlike Dobbins, Akers' 2022 struggles had little to do with injury. The Achilles tear Akers suffered in the 2021 preseason was well in the rearview, yet his 2022 season was derailed anyway due to an unspecified conflict with coach Sean McVay. Whatever McVay's reasoning, it apparently had nothing to do with results on the field. McVay leaned on Darrell Henderson, Kyren Williams and even Malcolm Brown and Ronnie Rivers ahead of Akers, and by midseason it looked like Akers would be traded, if not released. But, for whatever reason, the Rams finally gave Akers the starting role in Week 13, from which point he easily outclassed the rest of the backfield. In the final six games, Akers ran for 512 yards and six touchdowns, making one wonder what might have been if McVay had simply played his best running back all along. Akers needs to hold off a pair of fringe prospects — sixth-round pick Zach Evans and undrafted free-agent Tiyon Evans, the Rams' only offseason additions — but otherwise has little competition for touches this season.

Kadarius Toney, WR, KC
Summer ADP: No. 83, WR36

Few wide receivers have had a greater combination of tantalizing talent and infuriating inconsistency than Toney. His elusiveness is all-timer stuff, but so is his ability to inexplicably disappear for stretches, be it because of durability or skill-set limitations. As much as Toney has the athleticism to theoretically develop into an all-around wide receiver, every data point raises concern about his ability to run routes. His upside, though, is enormous if he (A) stays healthy and (B) runs even two or three routes at a vaguely competent level. Toney has 4.39 speed, and his vertical leap (39.5 inches) and broad jump (136 inches) showed elite athleticism at the 2021 NFL Combine. If he earns snaps and targets, Toney's wheels and the Patrick Mahomes offense should do the rest. Toney needs to get cracking, though, because recent second-round draft picks Rashee Rice (2023) and Skyy Moore (2022) will bite at his heels if he doesn't.

Skyy Moore, WR, KC
Summer ADP: No. 136, WR56

If Toney falters the Chiefs will need Moore to pick up some of that slack. While Moore has less upside than Toney — he's two inches shorter and not quite as fast — he might have a higher floor. Moore produced immediately at Western Michigan in college, emerging as the WR1 and producing catch rate/yards per target marks above the team baseline in his age 19-21 seasons. The Chiefs saw enough to make him a second-round pick last spring after he ran a 4.41 40 at the NFL Combine, though he ultimately spent most of his rookie year fourth or fifth on the depth chart. Moore should have more opportunities this season with JuJu Smith-Schuster gone, needing to hold off only second-round pick Rashee Rice and journeyman Richie James for targets out of the slot.

Drake London, WR, ATL
Summer ADP: No. 52, WR24

It's reasonable to argue London already broke out last year, accounting for 29.6 percent of the Falcons' receiving yards after they made him the eighth overall pick. His 72 receptions, 866 yards and four touchdowns on 117 targets (61.5 percent catch rate, 7.4 yards per target) would be solid by sophomore-year standards, let alone for a rookie who turned 21 less than two months before the season and was stuck with poor QB play all year. It's fair to worry about his potential for growth in an Atlanta offense that barely aspired to throw and tended to do so poorly when it tried last season, but London is so advanced for his age that he will command targets all the same. Poor passing offense or not, London is the sort of talent who can transcend his circumstances.

Alec Pierce, WR, IND
Summer ADP: No. 187, WR69

Pierce might be the Colts wide receiver who best fits the scheming tendencies of new coach Shane Steichen and the playing style of new quarterback Anthony Richardson. Steichen excels as a vertically minded playcaller, while Richardson's combination of underneath running threat and downfield arm might make it tough for defenses to maintain their vertical coverage discipline. That would bode well for Pierce, as Michael Pittman is more of  short-to-intermediate-range wide receiver and not much of a deep threat with 4.52 speed. At 6-3, 211, Pierce boasts 4.41 speed to go with a 40.5-inch vertical jump and 129-inch broad jump. The 2022 second-round pick also has a developed downfield skill set, and his peripheral stats from last year are encouraging — 78 targets and 910 air yards on 695 snaps. If the Colts offense (A) improves and (B) throws deep more often, Pierce could catch fire. 

Jameson Williams, WR, DET
Summer ADP: No. 112, WR46

Williams' six-game suspension to being the season simply delays what will be a notable arrival. He missed most of his rookie year because of an ACL tear he suffered in his last game at Alabama (Jan. 1, 2022). He then used the final six games last year as basically a preseason, playing 78 snaps, catching one pass (though it was a 41-yard TD) and getting up to speed in the offense. To understand Williams, focus on his final collegiate season when he produced 79 receptions for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns on 118 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 13.3 YPT) . Williams' receiving skills paired with his burning speed should create problems for any defense. When he returns, the outside-receiver snaps likely will be all his with DJ Chark now in Carolina and Amon-Ra St. Brown working the slot. Although the suspension makes it tricky to pinpoint a justifiable price for Williams in fantasy drafts, he likely will be a standout as soon as Detroit's seventh game.

Treylon Burks, WR, TEN
Summer ADP: No. 85, WR37

Burks' rookie season was somewhat difficult, defined by starts and stops, but the overall body of work was encouraging and put him on track for a Year 2 breakout. He had 444 yards on 54 targets last year, which is quite good on just 377 snaps, especially considering turf toe and a concussion disrupted his season at separate points. A good number of Burks' targets were predetermined reads, though, as his route-running was not always reliable, forcing the Titans to bring him along slowly with accommodating playcalls. That dovetails with the pre-draft concerns that in part dropped Burks to the Titans at pick No. 18 in the first place — no one ever questioned Burks' raw ability or athleticism, but lining up correctly and running the correct route weren't always a given. Those concerns are common for rookie wideouts, though. What's less common is 225-pound receivers who move like Burks.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, TEN
Summer ADP: No. 119, TE12

With few quality pass-catchers on the roster, Okonkwo is poised to be No. 2 behind Burks. The tight end is even more athletic than his teammate, having run a 4.52 40 at 6-3, 238 at the 2022 NFL Combine. Indeed, Okonkwo often looked more like a wide receiver than a tight end as he tore down the field in his rookie year, showing significant receiving skills in addition to his elite athleticism. On just 361 snaps Okonkwo drew 46 targets, catching 32 for 450 yards and three touchdowns (69.6 percent catch rate, 9.8 YPT). He proved a threat both downfield (7.6-yard aDOT, 73rd percentile) and after the catch (8.1 yards after the catch, 94th percentile), and his opportunities increased as the year went along. After giving him 15 targets the first 10 weeks, the Titans realized what they had and started feeding Okonkwo. He proved the decision a smart one, converting 31 targets into 24 receptions for 278 yards and two touchdowns (77.4 percent catch rate, 9.0 YPT) on just 187 snaps. The Titans aren't likely to dial him back after such a strong finish, especially with so few reliable targets available.

George Pickens, WR, PIT
Summer ADP: No. 77, WR34

Diontae Johnson appeared locked in as Pittsburgh's WR1 for the foreseeable future, but Pickens might have other ideas. The former Georgia star did in 2022 what he's always done, which is land big plays and humiliating blocks on the cornerbacks unfortunate enough to face him. At 6-3, 200, with 4.47 speed, Pickens is a future WR1, and that's been clear since his true-freshman season when he accounted for 23.3 percent of the team's passing yardage and 30.8 percent of passing touchdowns as an 18-year-old. His sophomore and junior seasons were blighted by a pandemic, a shoulder injury and an ACL tear, which suppressed his draft stock. But Pickens' rookie campaign confirmed his freshman year was no mirage. He caught 52 of 84 targets for 801 yards and four touchdowns — a 61.9 percent catch rate at 9.5 yards per target in an offense that completed just 63.7 percent of its passes at 6.4 YPA. Still just 22, Pickens will make more noise yet.

Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS
Summer ADP: No. 87, WR38

Although unlikely to outdo Terry McLaurin and claim WR1 in Washington this year, Dotson is at least an overqualified WR2 and could be an WR1 in time, or at least when he's no longer playing with McLaurin. Coming out of Penn State, where he ran routes effectively both from the slot and on the boundary (at any depth of the field), Dotson was typecast as a complementary wideout  thanks to his smallish frame (5-11, 178). That was a mistake. A hamstring injury cost him five games in an otherwise strong rookie season that saw him catch 35 of 61 targets for 523 yards and seven touchdowns (57.4 percent catch rate, 8.6 YPT). He'll need far more targets to reach the next level, but new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could do for him what former coordinator Scott Turner did not do until late in the season — in the final five games Dotson had 35 targets to Curtis Samuel's 20 (McLaurin had 34). Particularly after Samuel returned just 7.1 YPT on 92 targets, it would make sense for Bieniemy to prioritize Dotson.

Juwan Johnson, TE, NO
Summer ADP: No. 147, TE17

It's not often a wide receiver simply switches to tight end and makes the transition swimmingly, but that's what Johnson did. An undrafted free agent in 2020, Johnson converted to tight end ahead of his second season. He is still smallish by tight end standards at about 230 pounds, which means he's liable to lose some snaps to Foster Moreau when an inline rep is the playcall. But Johnson was strong enough as a pass catcher last season that the Saints could keep him on the field even when Moreau plays. Johnson could even prove to be New Orleans' primary slot receiver, after turning 65 targets into 42 receptions for 508 yards and seven touchdowns (64.6 percent catch rate, 7.8 YPT) on 627 snaps last year. QB Derek Carr historically looks to the tight end a good amount and should do more for the offense than Andy Dalton did last year, so Johnson can improve his per-snap production even as his snap count increases. If Chris Olave or Michael Thomas is injured, Johnson likely would be the main beneficiary of increased targets.

John Metchie, WR, HOU
Summer ADP: No. 203, WR75

It's too early to say for certain if Metchie will be fully back from the leukemia treatment that kept him out last year, but the 2022 second-round pick participated in Houston's OTA sessions, creating a welcome swell of hope that he can make a triumphant debut this season. QB C.J. Stroud could bring major improvements to the Houston passing game as soon as this year, and Metchie is chief among the players that would benefit. Nico Collins looks like a potential starter but not a high-volume target, and 165-pound rookie Nathaniel Dell would be the lightest starting WR in the league. Robert Woods, meanwhile, is just a stopgap option for the Texans, and not a reliabe one at 31 years old after a 527-yard season in Tennessee last year. While Metchie only profiles as a WR2 in the NFL, he might be a WR1 when Woods, Collins and Dell are the competition.

Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL
Summer ADP: No. 115, WR47

Bateman's biggest concern is the Lisfranc injury he suffered Week 8 last year. It's no small concern — the injury required surgical repair and kept Bateman from running until mid-April — but he's expected to be fully healthy well in advance of Week 1. In 18 games in his two seasons, he has 61 receptions for 800 yards and three touchdowns on 96 targets on 755 snaps (63.5 percent catch rate, 8.3 YPA), all before turning 23. The Ravens signed Odell Beckam and spent a first-round pick on Zay Flowers, but neither is likely to match Bateman's production. Beckham has a major injury history and turns 31 in November, while Flowers is a lesser prospect than Bateman was a couple years prior and might be confined to the slot. If healthy, Bateman should serve as the lead receiver in the Baltimore offense, revamped by new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who likely will take to the air more often than the since-fired Greg Roman.

QUICK HITS

James Cook, RB, BUF - Cook doesn't have the frame (5-11, 199) to hold up under a big workload, but his main competition, Damien Harris, has not been durable the last two years, and if Harris misses time the Bills might have little choice but to make Cook a workhorse.

Alexander Mattison, RB, MIN - Mattison needs the Vikings to trade or cut Dalvin Cook — and even then he might need to worry about rookie seventh-round pick DeWayne McBride to some extent — but as long as Cook is elsewhere then Mattison has a shot to emerge as a three-down back in a functional offense.

Irv Smith, TE, CIN - The Vikings unceremoniously allowed Smith's contract to expire and made no effort to re-sign him after trading for T.J. Hockenson midseason last year, but the 2019 second-round pick is still only 25 and could benefit from playing in the Cincinnati offense with Hayden Hurst and Mitchell Wilcox gone.

Trey McBride, TE, ARI - Zach Ertz is an obstacle, but the slowing veteran is returning from an ACL tear and could just as easily see his role reduced to that of a ceremonial starter, especially since the Cardinals need to find out what they have in McBride after spending a second-round pick on him in the 2022 draft.

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