2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers & Busts: Undervalued, Overvalued Players

Welcome to sleepers and busts, where we seek to identify players whose average draft position (ADP) makes them undervalued or overvalued. We asked some of our football writers for their favorite undervalued and overvalued players for the 2023 season. 

But remember, calling a player overvalued does not mean he will be awful this year. It simply means his risk outweighs the likelihood he returns his ADP value. We limited "busts" to an ADP top-12 QB/TE or top-36 RB/WR (i.e., the first three rounds of a 12-team draft).

Disagree with any of the picks? Got a favorite sleeper or bust player? Let us know in the comments.

Undervalued

Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans

Pierce doubled his collegiate single-season high for carries as an NFL rookie despite missing the final four weeks with a high-ankle sprain last year. There were some tough outings along the way against good run defenses, especially in November, but the fourth-round pick slugged his way to 4.3 YPC and finished seventh among running backs with 72.2 rushing yards per game. Pierce was fourth in broken tackles (27) and only 13th in carries (220), also landing top 10 in runs of 20-plus (seven) and 40-plus (two) yards. Devin Singletary coming in on a one-year contract won't disrupt Pierce's progression as the lead back in Houston.

David Njoku, TE, Browns

Njoku went five weeks in a row with at least 58 yards and six targets last fall before a Week 7 high-ankle sprain cost him two full games and limited his snaps in two others. He missed a third game with a knee injury and returned in December to an offense held back by bad weather and QB Deshaun Watson's poor play. Njoku's role the final five weeks was nonetheless encouraging; he took more than 90 percent of snaps in every game and saw 37 percent of the red-zone targets (two TDs). Now he just needs better injury luck and half-decent QB play.

— Jerry Donabedian, @JerryDonabedian

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Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers

Pessimism exists after Godwin posted career lows in yards per target and yards per reception last year. However, he probably came back too quickly from a 2021 ACL injury, and the Tampa Bay offense underperformed as a whole. Another year removed from injury should help his agility and speed. He'll provide Baker Mayfield with a reliable and big (6-foot-1, 208) target out of the slot and could get more downfield looks this year, according to new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. He'll likely retain his 100-catch pace of the last two years, and if he can simply maintain his 5.2 YAC average (14th among WR), we're looking at a top-15 wide receiver.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys

Cooks was a yard short of 700 receiving yards last year, his first sub-1,000-yard season in three seasons with the Texans. Not only was the ineffective Davis Mills his QB, but Cooks was a disgruntled employee in a less than ideal football environment. Now in Dallas, he's in position to return to the 1,000-yard level he's reached in six of the last eight years. Dak Prescott gives him his best QB since he caught balls from Tom Brady in 2017. With CeeDee Lamb the unquestioned No. 1 WR, Cooks can return to the No. 2 role for which he is more suited. His summer ADP is WR45, but he should finish top 30 at the position this year. 

— Jim Coventry, @JimCoventryNFL

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George Pickens, WR, Steelers

Pickens turned in a promising rookie season last year despite woeful quarterback play. After only five receptions the first three weeks with Mitch Trubisky, Pickens clicked with fellow rookie Kenny Pickett, posting 10.2 YPT (4th in the NFL Weeks 4-18) and a 14.7 aDOT (3rd). This despite Pickett struggling much of the year (his 6.2 YPA was second lowest in the league). Pickens has size (6-3) and speed (4.47), and likely will improve his route-running and agility another year removed from a 2021 ACL tear. The Steelers only added a post-prime Allen Robinson this offseason, and Diontae Johnson seems miscast as a No. 1 WR. Pickens could be No. 1 soon enough.

Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints

Johnson converted to tight end in 2021 but used his wide receiver skills last year to post 12.1 yards per catch (6th among TE) and seven touchdowns (3rd) after a rash of injuries hit the wideout corps. He lined up in the slot on 41.5 percent of his snaps and should line up there at least as much this season. Chris Olave is the top target, but Michael Thomas is no lock to survive the season after playing 10 games the last three years and No. 3 WR Rashid Shaheed is unproven. At 6-4, Johnson should also be a good red-zone target (nine TDs the last two years) for new QB Derek Carr, who figures to upgrade the offense.

— Jason Thornbury, @JDThornbury

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Damien Harris, RB,  Bills

Buffalo has needed a power back for years, and Harris fills that role. Harris isn't a perfect player by any means — otherwise he'd still be in New England — and his 15-touchdown season in 2021 looks like an aberration as he has five rushing scores in his other three seasons combined (23 games). Durability is also an issue, but unlike in New England, Harris is now in an offense where overuse is almost impossible given the team's pass-first approach. James Cook goes two rounds ahead of Harris in most drafts, and while Cook has some PPR utility, Harris has league-winning potential as a later-round pick who should be the goal-line back for one of the NFL's highest-scoring offenses. Harris could be this year's Jamaal Williams.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Titans

Nobody wants exposure to the Tennessee passing game. Good, more for us. Okonkwo didn't start regularly playing more than 30 snaps a game until Week 13 last season, but in the last six games he caught 21 of 26 targets for 243 yards and two touchdowns. His main roadblocks to playing time — Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim — are gone, leaving Okonkwo as the primary tight end. He has a path to being the No. 2 target in the offense with only WR Treylon Burks a sure thing for significant usage. Even if the pass volume lags in a run-first offense, Okonkwo will have a large claim on what's there. Usually available in the 11th round of 12-team drafts, he makes for a good second tight end.

— John McKechnie, @johns_tailgate

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Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills

Rookie tight ends often struggle to produce, but reports from Buffalo, which traded up to draft the big-bodied (6-4, 246) tight end in the first round this spring, suggest Kincaid will be used as a glorified slot receiver to supercharge the offensive personnel. Intriguing second-year WR Khalil Shakir looms as a candidate to fill slot snaps, but if Kincaid cements a legitimate share of snaps, his straight-line speed and nifty run-after-catch ability should lead to excellent fantasy value.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers

Doubs was a mainstay in the Packers' starting lineup Weeks 3-8 last season, playing at least 83 percent of snaps, but a high-ankle sprain Week 9 halted the positive trajectory. By the time the 2022 fourth-round pick returned from injury, a litany of Packers wideouts, including fellow rookie Christian Watson, were healthy, relegating Doubs to an afterthought in his final four games. With Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb now on to "greener" pastures, Doubs profiles as one of Green Bay's top targets, which should give him ample opportunities to grow alongside new starter Jordan Love.

— Joe Bartel, @JBFantasySports

Overvalued

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers

Samuel averaged 7.8 targets, 3.8 carries, 75 yards and 0.5 TDs in six games before the Christian McCaffrey trade last year, dipping to 6.9 targets, 3.2 carries, 63 yards and 0.3 TDs in his 10 games (including playoffs) thereafter. Post-trade, Samuel got only 18 percent of the red-zone targets and eight percent of red-zone carries in his active games, competing not only with McCaffrey but also WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle and RB Elijah Mitchell. There are a lot of mouths to feed, and Trey Lance will suck up some of the snaps with QB rush attempts if he plays.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams

There's a lot that can go wrong for the Rams offense this year with Kupp, QB Matthew Stafford, LT Joe Noteboom and C Brian Allen coming back from season-ending injuries. Those four are among the mere seven Rams with cap hits of $3 million or more as the team goes full stars-and-scrubs with $74 million in dead money. It's a good setup for Kupp to rake in targets, but the efficiency likely will dip again this year and could truly tank if the 35-year-old Stafford's elbow acts up again or the Rams can't keep him healthy.

— Jerry Donabedian, @JerryDonabedian

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Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

Jacobs averaged 3.9 YPC his prior two seasons before exploding for 4.9 YPC last year on a massive 393 touches. It's likely his efficiency or volume (or both) regresses, preventing him from reaching his RB6 ADP value. Without a downfield threat from new QB Jimmy Garoppolo, defenses can routinely stack the box. Jacobs played through foot, calf, quadriceps and hip injuries last year, and his physical style makes him an injury risk. Let others pay the Round 2 cost.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars

Etienne finished RB16 last year in his first year on the field after missing his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury. He showed plenty of big-play ability (5.1 YPC, 9.0 YPR), but his touches were inconsistent. He had eight games with no more than 10 carries and never had more than three receptions in a game. That's still a concern this season, perhaps more so after the Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round this spring and signed D'Ernest Johnson. Without enough volume, Etienne might not jump into the top 10 of running back as many seem to expect.

— Jim Coventry, @JimCoventryNFL

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DJ Moore, WR, Bears

Even if Justin Fields improves his passing this season (a reasonable proposition), Moore's trade to Chicago poses a problem. The Bears just don't throw enough to expect Moore to outperform his WR20 ADP. Chicago was the most run-heavy team in the league last year (56.2 percent), attempting 22.2 passes per game — fewest in the NFL since 1990. Fields has a big arm that should benefit from having a legitimate No. 1 WR for the first time, but even an optimistic scenario for targets probably doesn't get the wideout to the 118 he had last year in Carolina. And without a lot of targets, Moore won't pay off because he's not likely to have a big enough jump in efficiency.

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

Prescott dealt with injuries each of the last three years and lost his passing-minded offensive coordinator this offseason. Adding Brandin Cooks might help, as will a healthier Michael Gallup. But now he has Mike McCarthy likely calling a more conservative gameplan, and Prescott really doesn't get much from his rushing production anymore either. If everything breaks right, he could be a fringe top-10 QB this season. He seems more likely to finish outside the top 10.

— Jason Thornbury, @JDThornbury

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Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts

This has less to do with what Richardson could be and more to do with what you need to pony up to get him in redraft. Richardson has a long way to go and a lot to clean up before he reaches his ceiling. But in 14-team leagues, he's being drafted as QB13. Yes, he likely will start Week 1, but there's bound to be rough weeks in the passing game and he will need to crush it as a runner to vindicate QB1 status. As talented as Richardson is, the safer bet is he doesn't finish among the top-15 fantasy quarterbacks this season. 

Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

Drafting Jones at his RB16 ADP is a risk. Besides the offense having a lower ceiling in 2023 without Aaron Rodgers, Jones is coming off a season in which he lost goal-line carries to AJ Dillon. He rushed for two TDs on 213 carries, and while that could correct, a bit, it's unlikely he sniffs double-digit rushing touchdowns, especially with Dillon still in the mix. Jones bolsters his value with high-volume receiving, but Green Bay has invested in a lot of WR/TE in recent drafts, so Jones' targets could decrease this year. I'm more inclined to take Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders or J.K. Dobbins if I'm targeting running back in the fourth round.

— John McKechnie, @johns_tailgate

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Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens

The switch from archaic Greg Roman to Todd Monken at offensive coordinator should do wonders for the Ravens offense, but it could mean the targets are spread around more this year to the new additions at wide receiver. The third-most targeted tight end in the league last season, Andrews will now have to compete with Odell Beckham, Zay Flowersand Rashod Bateman for looks. The veteran TE might be a fine fantasy option, but his offseason ADP leaves no margin for error.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers

The 2020 first-round pick broke out with a respectable 78-1,015-8 line last season, but two of Aiyuk's top three fantasy games came with Deebo Samuel out. A full arsenal of available 49ers targets has typically forced Aiyuk to a secondary role, and that's not factoring in Christian McCaffrey, who should get more work in Year 2 with San Francisco. Unless the 49ers offense dramatically changes with Trey Lance at QB, Aiyuk could struggle to hit similar numbers in 2023.

— Joe Bartel, @JBFantasySports

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