This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Draft Betting Odds: Best NFL Draft Bets 2024
NFL Draft props and NFL draft betting have erupted in popularity of late as sports betting has expanded across the country and the appetite from NFL and college football fans to attack this market has grown.
It's totally unique; on one side, it rewards those who study the prospects and have the media literacy to sift through all the smoke screens we've been bombarded with for months to exploit a market inefficiency.
On the other side, you can be as prepped on this draft as anybody, have the right idea, and then be totally wrong anyway. It's part sports betting, part entertainment betting like plunking down on The Oscars or The Bachelor. It's beautiful.
If you're looking for more NFL Draft betting content here at RotoWire, be sure to read Joe Bartel's NFL Draft prop betting article and Mario Puig's latest NFL mock draft.
Get in on the latest NFL Draft odds here at RotoWire with constantly updated markets for a huge variety of NFL draft props. Looking to sign up at a sportsbook before the draft? The BetMGM bonus code profiles as one of the most generous sportsbook promo codes in the sports betting space.
*all odds in this article are current as of 10:30 AM, April 24.
Fourth Overall Pick
J.J. McCarthy, Quarterback, Michigan (+400 +350 at FanDuel)
The fourth overall pick is a fascinating storyline in this draft. If all goes according to expectation, three quarterbacks will be off the board by the time this pick clock starts running, and that means there could be a race to trade with the Cardinals for that selection.
There are two teams that have the need for a quarterback and the draft capital ammo to make this move -- the Giants (6th) and Vikings (11th, 23rd). The Giants might have an easier time moving up and it's a decent enough selling point to the Cardinals that they would still have a shot at Marvin Harrison Jr. at 6, or at least Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze.
A trade with the Vikings would likely net both of their first-round picks, but it would also put the onus on Arizona to move back up if they want to ensure they get the blue-chip receiver it desperately needs.
For most of this pre-draft process, I've expected Arizona to stand pat at four and take Harrison. It's basically been a Bingo Free Space in mock drafts across the industry. The odds at these sportsbooks still expect it, too.
Still, as the draft gets closer, I think there will be extremely attractive offers for that No.4 pick that will be difficult for Arizona to decline.
Rounding it out -- line shopping is always important for making any wager, but the variance across books for the Draft is always eye-catching. FanDuel's +350 price on McCarthy going 4th overall is out of lockstep with the other major shops. If I'm betting this prop, it's going to be at FanDuel with the +350 payout. It was +400 on Tuesday night, for what it's worth.
By comparison, McCarthy going 4th overall is priced at +180 at DraftKings and +175 at BetMGM.
The FanDuel promo code gets new players access to a Bet $5, Get $150 offer.
First Running Back Drafted
Blake Corum, Michigan (+500 at FanDuel)
This year's running back crop is underwhelming overall relative to most years. It might be the worst running back class since 2013, frankly. That doesn't mean the first running back pick odds aren't interesting, though.
The books are hanging prices upwards of -150 on Texas' Jonathan Brooks being the first running back selected. Sure, it helps Brooks' case that none of these running backs are going before the third round, so a team may be less risk-averse in taking a player who won't be able to help Week 1 (Brooks is coming off of a November ACL tear) and bet that the tools will translate once he's healthy.
On the other hand... really? A front office in a league that has been increasingly devaluing the running back position is really going to spend a Top 100 pick on a guy who might miss half the season and not get back up to full speed until 2025? And waste a year of a four-year contract? On a guy with just one year of production in college?
Fade.
I'll ride with Michigan's Blake Corum instead. He's durable with a three-down skill-set and has several years of elite production on his resume.
Florida State's Trey Benson, who has Ryan Mathews vibes (remember him?), is sitting second in the odds at +320 and is a good bet in his own right. Still, I side with Corum at +500 thanks to his longer track record of workhorse prowess.
Player Draft Position Over/Unders
Amarius Mims, Over 22.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
The expectation is that offensive tackles will be flying off the board Thursday. It makes sense -- it's a strong class with upwards of seven bookends hearing their names called by the end of Round One.
Take this for what you will as a Georgia alum myself but I believe Mims has the makings of a longtime Pro-Bowl caliber tackle in the league. It's also fair to point out that Mims made a grand total of eight starts (although 30 total appearances) during his time in Athens. Will a team be willing to take the plunge on him that early with that little experience?
The board also sets up in a way that may put Mims' under at a disadvantage here. We can expect at least four quarterbacks, three wide receivers, three corners, two edge rushers and a tight end to come off the board before pick 22, and that's not even mentioning the tackles that are likely ranked ahead of him on teams' big boards.
Joe Alt, JC Latham, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, and Taliese Fuaga all project to go before Mims.
I don't expect Mims to fall much past 22, but we just need to get to 23. I'll take it.
Kool-Aid McKinstry, Over 29.5 (+128) (FanDuel)
McKinstry is at risk of getting squeezed to the latter part of the first round or even the early second. The aforementioned logjam with all the quarterbacks, tackles, receivers and corners complicates McKinstry's draft standing as a surefire first-rounder.
The corner depth in this class is also strong. Teammate Terrion Arnold and Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell will almost certainly come off the board in the teens, and Nate Wiggins and Cooper DeJean are also threats to go ahead of McKinstry.
It's important to scan the landscape in the late 20's of the first round to really dial this in. The Packers, Buccaneers and Lions could all use corner help, but would they be willing to take the fifth-best player at corner in the first when there's a higher likelihood of there being a viable CB in the later rounds? And then the Bills are a near-lock to take a receiver at 28. McKinstry is running out of runway to go before the 30th pick the way I see it.
Brian Thomas Over 19.5 (-200) (FanDuel)
I don't love the juice here -- it was -172 as of Tuesday night. That said, the line movement strengthens the notion that a draft night slide could be coming for Thomas. The LSU product is an unbelievable athlete for his size and his production was loud in 2023. He's a first-round talent.
However, it seems that teams aren't as sold on the idea that he's the complete package and may have limited functions. Three to four receivers should come off the board before Thomas and the likes of the Bengals and Rams don't really need help there. Jacksonville could be a fly in the ointment here after losing Calvin Ridley this offseason, but if it's not the Jags, Thomas should be available at 20 or later.
Draft Specials
Xavier Worthy to be Drafted before Adonai Mitchell (+130) (DraftKings)
These Texas teammates were the story of the combine as each of them turned in dominant performances that cemented them as likely first-rounders. Worthy set the combine record for the fastest 40 (4.21) and Mitchell put together a stellar all-around workout that silenced the doubters of his athleticism.
For a time, it seemed as though Mitchell was a lock to go Top 15 or at least Top 20, but these odds signal something different. Worthy not only has world-class speed, he also outperformed Mitchell in their one season together at Texas. Simply outproducing Mitchell won't be the end-all-be-all in teams' evals, but Worthy's significantly larger target share (26 to Mitchell's 19.7%) is an interesting signal as to who was the most important part of an explosive Texas passing game.
Lastly, teams love speed. No matter how many test cases we have showing that speed isn't everything for a receiver and can often distract from other flaws a player has in his game, low 4.2 speed with Worthy's on-field resume is going to attract some team to him like a moth to a flame.
Even if I have my own concerns with Worthy, his overall body of work at Texas is solid while Mitchell really only has one great year to his name and it was still lesser than that of Worthy's while they were on the same team.
Longshot Draft Bets
Top Five Overall Picks Exact Order
1. Caleb Williams 2. Jayden Daniels 3. Drake Maye 4. J.J. McCarthy 5. Joe Alt (+2900) (FanDuel)
1. Caleb Williams 2. Drake Maye 3. Jayden Daniels 4. Marvin Harrison Jr. 5. J.J. McCarthy (+1700) (FanDuel)
Let's wrap up by taking some swings for the fences, shall we?
Breaking down the first one, here's what needs to happen: Williams goes first as expected. The Daniels to Washington link comes to fruition -- it's priced at -475 at the time of this writing on DraftKings. Third, the Patriots end up taking the best quarterback available in Maye. Fourth, a trade occurs, whether it's the Giants or the Vikings, to move up to the No.4 pick and select McCarthy, which leaves the Chargers to take the top-rated tackle in the draft in Alt.
None of these legs seem all that far-fetched in a vacuum. It will go off the rails if the trade for the fourth pick doesn't materialize, or if Harbaugh surprises everyone and eschews addressing the trenches with the fifth pick.
For the second bet, it gets more interesting early. Again, Daniels is the heavy favorite to go second overall. If that ends up being a smoke screen, I believe Maye will be the pick for the Commanders. Smoke screens happen this time of the year, need I remind you of the Great Will Levis Saga of 2023? Or the Sam Darnold-Baker Mayfield Okey-Doke of 2018?
From there, I'd be interested to see whether the Patriots went with Daniels or McCarthy, but for the sake of this bet it's more likely than not that Daniels would be the pick at three if he slips past Washington. Then, the Arizona trade does not materialize and they take Marvin Harrison Jr. At five, McCarthy would come off the board if available. Would it be the aforementioned Giants or Vikings moving up, or would the Chargers shock the world and move on from Justin Herbert?
Alright, that last idea is probably too crazy, and a good sign that we've covered enough ground here.
