This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
A lot has changed since May, when we were able to include DraftKings in the cross-site ADP analysis for the first time this offseason. At the time, DK's initial numbers were way different from those on Underdog and Drafters, with wide receivers consistently going later while quarterbacks and running backs went earlier. The explanation, as in past seasons, was that DraftKings' data included results from six-player drafts, which put a premium on quality players at the onesie positions (QB/TE) absent the usual concerns about RB/WR depth.
Including those numbers then has a positive feedback effect, with ADP influencing how people draft and often leading them to select said QBs and TEs earlier than they otherwise might even in 12-team drafts because of the expectation those players won't make it to the next round (well below listed ADP). Some drafts end up looking pretty similar to those on Underdog or Drafters, but others end up drastically different after competitors respond to the early QB/TE picks by panicking and "reaching" for second- and third-tier players at those positions (another positive feedback cycle).
In any case, it looks like something we won't have to think about anymore, with DK seemingly no longer including results from the small drafts in overall ADP (or else not filling enough of them to have much of an impact). I can't say I'm thrilled, as it means fewer opportunities for phenomenal WR value on DK. That doesn't mean there's not still an edge, but now we're talking about sinking jumpers instead of uncontested lay-ups.
Below you'll see a big chart with players sorted by the average of their ADPs (AADP?) between Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters. After that, you'll see a column with the ADP from Underdog only, followed by a column that shows the difference between the player's ADP on Underdog and the average from the other two sites. A negative number means he's going later on Underdog; a positive number means he's going earlier. You'll then see the same information and process for DraftKings and Drafters.
The idea, quite simply, is to figure out which players tend to be cheaper/pricier on which site. If a guy is typically a third-round pick on Underdog but a fourth-rounder on DraftKings, you're better off getting most of your shares on DK.
After the chart, you'll find my analysis on some of the more interesting discrepancies. I'll mostly steer clear of cases in which an ADP gap can easily be explained by scoring/format difference between the various sites. Speaking of which... there are a few things to keep in mind when looking at the ADP numbers below:
1. The scoring systems aren't identical.
- Underdog = half PPR
- Drafters = full PPR
- DraftKings = full PPR with three-point bonuses at 100 rushing or 300 passing yards
The ADP differences you might expect based on this don't necessarily hold true, i.e., don't assume Derrick Henry will go earlier on UD than he does on the full-PPR sites. This is something we can and should use to our advantage. When I discuss ADP differences between sites at the bottom of this article, I'll ignore minor gaps that can be explained by the differences in settings.
2. Drafters doesn't use playoffs. DraftKings and Underdog do.
- Drafters determines tournament winners by accumulation of points Weeks 1-17
- DraftKings and Underdog use a playoff format Weeks 15-17.
On Drafters, you need to build a team that's dominant from start to finish, which means hitting multiple home runs in the later rounds. On DK and UD, you can get away with simply being pretty good for most of the year; you just need your team to be healthy and peaking late in the season.
On UD and DK, finishing second out of 12 in your league during Weeks 1-14 gets you into the playoffs, at which point anything can happen. A similar team on Drafters will min-cash, with no shot at anything more. This has huge, underrated implications for draft strategy, which I'll dive into more in a future article.
Many of these implications also impact ADP, e.g., the heightened importance of late-season production on DK/UD means guys coming back from major injuries tend to go a little bit earlier than on Drafters, where it's a bigger deal if your player doesn't do much during the first part of the season. This also favors rookies, as some will start the season in limited roles before eventually becoming full-time starters.
3. Underdog mostly runs 18-round drafts (besides Superflex), while DraftKings and Drafters go 20 rounds.
This one doesn't have significant ADP-related strategic implications, but it does explain some of the ADP discrepancies seen below for players outside the Top 200. And it obviously has big implications for roster construction.
ADP Comparison Chart (mid-to-late June)
| Pos | Player | Avg ADP | UD ADP | UDΔ | DK ADP | DKΔ | Dr ADP | DrΔ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | Christian McCaffrey | 1.31 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 | -0.3 |
| 2 | WR | CeeDee Lamb | 1.96 | 2.0 | -0.1 | 2.1 | -0.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | WR | Tyreek Hill | 3.17 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 3.2 | -0.1 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | WR | Ja'Marr Chase | 4.17 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | WR | Justin Jefferson | 5.59 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 6.0 | -0.6 | 5.4 | 0.3 |
| 6 | WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 5.65 | 6.0 | -0.5 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 5.7 | -0.1 |
| 7 | RB | Bijan Robinson | 6.89 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 7.0 | -0.2 |
| 8 | RB | Breece Hall | 8.40 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 8.6 | -0.3 | 8.6 | -0.3 |
| 9 | WR | Puka Nacua | 9.33 | 9.6 | -0.4 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 0.3 |
| 10 | WR | A.J. Brown | 9.77 | 9.7 | 0.1 | 10.0 | -0.4 | 9.6 | 0.3 |
| 11 | WR | Garrett Wilson | 10.84 | 10.7 | 0.2 | 11.1 | -0.4 | 10.7 | 0.2 |
| 12 | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 13.01 | 12.7 | 0.5 | 12.7 | 0.4 | 13.6 | -0.9 |
| 13 | WR | Marvin Harrison | 13.69 | 13.5 | 0.3 | 13.7 | 0.0 | 13.9 | -0.3 |
| 14 | WR | Drake London | 14.38 | 14.4 | 0.0 | 15.5 | -1.7 | 13.2 | 1.8 |
| 15 | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 16.52 | 16.3 | 0.3 | 15.9 | 1.0 | 17.4 | -1.3 |
| 16 | WR | Chris Olave | 17.66 | 16.6 | 1.6 | 19.7 | -3.0 | 16.7 | 1.4 |
| 17 | WR | Davante Adams | 17.77 | 19.1 | -2.0 | 18.6 | -1.3 | 15.6 | 3.3 |
| 18 | WR | Nico Collins | 18.19 | 19.6 | -2.1 | 17.6 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 1.2 |
| 19 | RB | Saquon Barkley | 18.90 | 18.9 | 0.0 | 15.1 | 5.7 | 22.7 | -5.7 |
| 20 | WR | Brandon Aiyuk | 19.72 | 17.5 | 3.3 | 21.4 | -2.5 | 20.3 | -0.9 |
| 21 | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 20.86 | 20.8 | 0.1 | 22.6 | -2.6 | 19.2 | 2.5 |
| 22 | WR | Mike Evans | 22.62 | 22.7 | -0.1 | 23.8 | -1.8 | 21.3 | 2.0 |
| 23 | WR | Deebo Samuel | 24.09 | 21.5 | 3.9 | 27.7 | -5.4 | 23.1 | 1.5 |
| 24 | RB | De'Von Achane | 25.40 | 25.2 | 0.3 | 22.4 | 4.5 | 28.6 | -4.8 |
| 25 | WR | Malik Nabers | 26.60 | 25.8 | 1.2 | 31.0 | -6.6 | 23.0 | 5.4 |
| 26 | WR | DeVonta Smith | 26.96 | 26.4 | 0.8 | 29.4 | -3.6 | 25.1 | 2.8 |
| 27 | WR | Cooper Kupp | 28.08 | 31.1 | -4.5 | 27.5 | 0.8 | 25.6 | 3.7 |
| 28 | RB | Kyren Williams | 29.25 | 29.5 | -0.4 | 25.6 | 5.5 | 32.7 | -5.2 |
| 29 | WR | DJ Moore | 29.74 | 28.1 | 2.5 | 33.4 | -5.5 | 27.7 | 3.1 |
| 30 | WR | DK Metcalf | 30.19 | 28.1 | 3.1 | 35.1 | -7.3 | 27.4 | 4.2 |
| 31 | RB | Derrick Henry | 31.29 | 32.8 | -2.3 | 24.1 | 10.8 | 37.0 | -8.6 |
| 32 | WR | Stefon Diggs | 31.32 | 30.1 | 1.8 | 32.7 | -2.0 | 31.2 | 0.2 |
| 33 | TE | Travis Kelce | 32.89 | 38.8 | -8.9 | 26.5 | 9.6 | 33.4 | -0.8 |
| 34 | WR | Michael Pittman | 33.14 | 32.5 | 1.0 | 35.6 | -3.7 | 31.3 | 2.8 |
| 35 | TE | Sam LaPorta | 33.27 | 33.6 | -0.5 | 30.2 | 4.6 | 36.0 | -4.1 |
| 36 | WR | Zay Flowers | 35.44 | 35.3 | 0.2 | 38.6 | -4.8 | 32.4 | 4.6 |
| 37 | WR | Tank Dell | 36.86 | 35.7 | 1.7 | 41.6 | -7.1 | 33.3 | 5.3 |
| 38 | QB | Josh Allen | 37.17 | 37.2 | 0.0 | 34.1 | 4.6 | 40.2 | -4.5 |
| 39 | QB | Jalen Hurts | 41.18 | 39.2 | 3.0 | 39.7 | 2.2 | 44.6 | -5.1 |
| 40 | WR | George Pickens | 42.55 | 41.0 | 2.3 | 45.5 | -4.4 | 41.2 | 2.0 |
| 41 | WR | Amari Cooper | 42.59 | 42.9 | -0.5 | 45.1 | -3.7 | 39.8 | 4.2 |
| 42 | RB | Travis Etienne | 42.72 | 42.9 | -0.3 | 37.2 | 8.3 | 48.1 | -8.1 |
| 43 | WR | Christian Kirk | 43.61 | 44.9 | -1.9 | 48.1 | -6.8 | 37.8 | 8.7 |
| 44 | WR | Tee Higgins | 44.60 | 40.6 | 6.0 | 49.9 | -7.9 | 43.3 | 1.9 |
| 45 | QB | Lamar Jackson | 44.79 | 44.1 | 1.0 | 42.7 | 3.2 | 47.6 | -4.2 |
| 46 | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 45.40 | 47.4 | -3.0 | 40.0 | 8.1 | 48.8 | -5.1 |
| 47 | TE | Trey McBride | 46.87 | 46.0 | 1.3 | 47.8 | -1.4 | 46.8 | 0.1 |
| 48 | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 48.33 | 48.9 | -0.9 | 43.5 | 7.3 | 52.6 | -6.4 |
| 49 | WR | Terry McLaurin | 49.36 | 50.1 | -1.1 | 56.4 | -10.5 | 41.6 | 11.6 |
| 50 | WR | Marquise Brown | 49.47 | 51.9 | -3.7 | 51.1 | -2.5 | 45.4 | 6.1 |
| 51 | RB | Josh Jacobs | 50.59 | 50.0 | 0.9 | 45.9 | 7.1 | 55.9 | -8.0 |
| 52 | TE | Mark Andrews | 50.65 | 50.0 | 1.0 | 52.7 | -3.1 | 49.2 | 2.2 |
| 53 | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 51.01 | 51.9 | -1.3 | 49.7 | 1.9 | 51.4 | -0.6 |
| 54 | WR | Keenan Allen | 53.83 | 53.6 | 0.3 | 57.5 | -5.5 | 50.4 | 5.1 |
| 55 | WR | Jayden Reed | 57.43 | 55.6 | 2.7 | 61.7 | -6.4 | 55.0 | 3.6 |
| 56 | QB | Anthony Richardson | 58.07 | 56.7 | 2.1 | 59.7 | -2.5 | 57.8 | 0.4 |
| 57 | RB | James Cook | 58.41 | 57.5 | 1.4 | 53.6 | 7.2 | 64.1 | -8.5 |
| 58 | RB | Joe Mixon | 59.13 | 61.4 | -3.4 | 56.0 | 4.7 | 60.0 | -1.3 |
| 59 | TE | Kyle Pitts | 60.29 | 61.5 | -1.8 | 60.3 | 0.0 | 59.1 | 1.8 |
| 60 | QB | C.J. Stroud | 60.41 | 59.4 | 1.5 | 53.0 | 11.1 | 68.8 | -12.6 |
| 61 | WR | Chris Godwin | 60.48 | 62.9 | -3.6 | 65.6 | -7.7 | 52.9 | 11.4 |
| 62 | RB | Rachaad White | 60.67 | 60.8 | -0.2 | 54.5 | 9.2 | 66.7 | -9.0 |
| 63 | WR | Calvin Ridley | 60.90 | 60.6 | 0.4 | 63.8 | -4.3 | 58.3 | 3.9 |
| 64 | WR | Xavier Worthy | 64.77 | 60.7 | 6.1 | 70.9 | -9.2 | 62.7 | 3.1 |
| 65 | RB | Kenneth Walker | 68.24 | 66.3 | 2.9 | 64.4 | 5.7 | 74.0 | -8.6 |
| 66 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 68.53 | 71.8 | -4.9 | 73.1 | -6.8 | 60.7 | 11.7 |
| 67 | WR | Keon Coleman | 68.59 | 71.6 | -4.5 | 67.1 | 2.3 | 67.1 | 2.2 |
| 68 | RB | Alvin Kamara | 69.36 | 73.5 | -6.2 | 60.9 | 12.7 | 73.7 | -6.5 |
| 69 | WR | Rome Odunze | 71.24 | 66.2 | 7.6 | 79.0 | -11.7 | 68.5 | 4.1 |
| 70 | TE | George Kittle | 71.28 | 67.2 | 6.1 | 71.5 | -0.4 | 75.1 | -5.7 |
| 71 | WR | Ladd McConkey | 72.08 | 69.8 | 3.4 | 75.1 | -4.6 | 71.3 | 1.2 |
| 72 | WR | Jordan Addison | 72.94 | 67.9 | 7.6 | 78.9 | -9.0 | 72.0 | 1.4 |
| 73 | WR | Rashee Rice | 73.43 | 76.9 | -5.2 | 74.2 | -1.1 | 69.2 | 6.3 |
| 74 | WR | Diontae Johnson | 73.78 | 75.6 | -2.7 | 83.6 | -14.8 | 62.1 | 17.5 |
| 75 | WR | Christian Watson | 74.99 | 76.8 | -2.7 | 79.3 | -6.4 | 68.9 | 9.1 |
| 76 | TE | Evan Engram | 75.10 | 78.5 | -5.1 | 73.5 | 2.4 | 73.3 | 2.7 |
| 77 | RB | David Montgomery | 75.58 | 75.0 | 0.9 | 70.4 | 7.8 | 81.4 | -8.7 |
| 78 | RB | Aaron Jones | 76.61 | 78.8 | -3.3 | 68.3 | 12.4 | 82.7 | -9.1 |
| 79 | WR | Brian Thomas | 77.65 | 72.2 | 8.2 | 85.6 | -12.0 | 75.1 | 3.8 |
| 80 | QB | Kyler Murray | 81.37 | 80.6 | 1.2 | 83.7 | -3.5 | 79.8 | 2.4 |
| 81 | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 83.20 | 77.2 | 9.0 | 94.5 | -17.0 | 77.9 | 8.0 |
| 82 | TE | Jake Ferguson | 83.39 | 86.0 | -3.9 | 83.0 | 0.6 | 81.2 | 3.3 |
| 83 | RB | Zamir White | 84.06 | 87.9 | -5.8 | 76.0 | 12.1 | 88.3 | -6.4 |
| 84 | WR | Jameson Williams | 84.15 | 82.9 | 1.9 | 89.4 | -7.9 | 80.1 | 6.1 |
| 85 | RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 85.12 | 85.6 | -0.7 | 85.7 | -0.8 | 84.1 | 1.5 |
| 86 | RB | D'Andre Swift | 85.32 | 89.1 | -5.7 | 79.9 | 8.2 | 87.0 | -2.5 |
| 87 | QB | Dak Prescott | 87.73 | 93.3 | -8.3 | 76.3 | 17.1 | 93.6 | -8.8 |
| 88 | QB | Joe Burrow | 88.15 | 83.9 | 6.4 | 81.9 | 9.3 | 98.6 | -15.7 |
| 89 | RB | Najee Harris | 89.23 | 84.4 | 7.2 | 91.5 | -3.4 | 91.8 | -3.9 |
| 90 | RB | Zack Moss | 90.34 | 91.8 | -2.2 | 88.5 | 2.7 | 90.7 | -0.5 |
| 91 | RB | James Conner | 90.45 | 94.3 | -5.8 | 83.4 | 10.5 | 93.6 | -4.7 |
| 92 | RB | Jaylen Warren | 91.07 | 90.3 | 1.1 | 94.8 | -5.6 | 88.1 | 4.4 |
| 93 | RB | Jonathon Brooks | 92.93 | 87.3 | 8.4 | 96.3 | -5.0 | 95.2 | -3.4 |
| 94 | RB | Raheem Mostert | 94.57 | 96.8 | -3.3 | 89.4 | 7.7 | 97.5 | -4.4 |
| 95 | QB | Jordan Love | 94.72 | 96.0 | -1.9 | 89.0 | 8.6 | 99.2 | -6.7 |
| 96 | WR | Courtland Sutton | 95.18 | 92.4 | 4.2 | 106.3 | -16.7 | 86.8 | 12.6 |
| 97 | WR | Curtis Samuel | 96.05 | 94.2 | 2.8 | 101.6 | -8.3 | 92.4 | 5.5 |
| 98 | TE | David Njoku | 97.63 | 101.5 | -5.8 | 93.3 | 6.5 | 98.1 | -0.7 |
| 99 | TE | Brock Bowers | 98.83 | 99.2 | -0.5 | 98.9 | -0.1 | 98.4 | 0.7 |
| 100 | WR | Tyler Lockett | 100.41 | 97.9 | 3.8 | 112.5 | -18.2 | 90.8 | 14.4 |
| 101 | RB | Tony Pollard | 100.89 | 100.2 | 1.0 | 98.1 | 4.2 | 104.4 | -5.3 |
| 102 | QB | Jayden Daniels | 104.08 | 102.3 | 2.7 | 107.0 | -4.4 | 102.9 | 1.8 |
| 103 | WR | Romeo Doubs | 105.37 | 104.9 | 0.7 | 103.9 | 2.2 | 107.3 | -2.9 |
| 104 | WR | Khalil Shakir | 105.93 | 107.7 | -2.7 | 111.1 | -7.7 | 99.0 | 10.4 |
| 105 | RB | Trey Benson | 108.72 | 104.5 | 6.3 | 109.8 | -1.6 | 111.9 | -4.8 |
| 106 | QB | Brock Purdy | 108.81 | 111.4 | -3.9 | 97.0 | 17.7 | 118.0 | -13.8 |
| 107 | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 109.05 | 106.9 | 3.2 | 117.3 | -12.4 | 102.9 | 9.2 |
| 108 | RB | Javonte Williams | 109.45 | 108.6 | 1.3 | 108.2 | 1.8 | 111.5 | -3.1 |
| 109 | QB | Caleb Williams | 109.77 | 107.1 | 4.0 | 105.9 | 5.8 | 116.3 | -9.8 |
| 110 | RB | Tyjae Spears | 110.22 | 112.0 | -2.7 | 112.4 | -3.2 | 106.3 | 5.9 |
| 111 | WR | Joshua Palmer | 110.31 | 111.6 | -1.9 | 120.7 | -15.6 | 98.6 | 17.6 |
| 112 | RB | Devin Singletary | 111.11 | 109.4 | 2.6 | 112.7 | -2.4 | 111.2 | -0.1 |
| 113 | TE | Dallas Goedert | 112.04 | 115.3 | -4.9 | 107.8 | 6.3 | 113.0 | -1.4 |
| 114 | RB | Brian Robinson | 113.37 | 110.6 | 4.2 | 116.8 | -5.2 | 112.7 | 1.0 |
| 115 | WR | Brandin Cooks | 117.72 | 124.3 | -9.9 | 120.2 | -3.7 | 108.7 | 13.5 |
| 116 | WR | Mike Williams | 117.93 | 114.2 | 5.6 | 121.1 | -4.7 | 118.5 | -0.9 |
| 117 | RB | Austin Ekeler | 118.03 | 125.9 | -11.8 | 103.1 | 22.4 | 125.1 | -10.6 |
| 118 | QB | Jared Goff | 118.57 | 125.4 | -10.2 | 103.0 | 23.3 | 127.3 | -13.1 |
| 119 | QB | Trevor Lawrence | 119.46 | 118.6 | 1.3 | 115.8 | 5.5 | 124.0 | -6.8 |
| 120 | WR | Jakobi Meyers | 119.84 | 120.6 | -1.1 | 124.9 | -7.6 | 114.0 | 8.8 |
| 121 | RB | Blake Corum | 120.86 | 120.5 | 0.5 | 122.0 | -1.7 | 120.1 | 1.1 |
| 122 | RB | Chase Brown | 121.84 | 120.0 | 2.8 | 126.6 | -7.2 | 118.9 | 4.4 |
| 123 | RB | Gus Edwards | 122.86 | 118.6 | 6.4 | 124.2 | -2.0 | 125.8 | -4.4 |
| 124 | RB | Jerome Ford | 122.96 | 128.9 | -8.9 | 124.3 | -2.0 | 115.7 | 10.9 |
| 125 | QB | Tua Tagovailoa | 123.55 | 122.7 | 1.3 | 112.6 | 16.5 | 135.4 | -17.8 |
| 126 | WR | Dontayvion Wicks | 124.20 | 122.3 | 2.8 | 135.3 | -16.6 | 115.0 | 13.8 |
| 127 | WR | Adonai Mitchell | 124.33 | 116.2 | 12.2 | 128.8 | -6.7 | 128.0 | -5.5 |
| 128 | WR | Jerry Jeudy | 126.54 | 124.9 | 2.5 | 133.0 | -9.7 | 121.7 | 7.3 |
| 129 | TE | Dalton Schultz | 127.37 | 129.3 | -2.9 | 122.1 | 7.9 | 130.7 | -5.0 |
| 130 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott | 129.42 | 128.1 | 2.0 | 130.3 | -1.3 | 129.9 | -0.7 |
| 131 | QB | Justin Herbert | 130.28 | 132.3 | -3.0 | 123.5 | 10.1 | 135.0 | -7.1 |
| 132 | WR | Josh Downs | 132.57 | 130.5 | 3.1 | 141.9 | -14.0 | 125.3 | 10.9 |
| 133 | WR | Jahan Dotson | 134.22 | 134.1 | 0.2 | 139.0 | -7.1 | 129.6 | 6.9 |
| 134 | RB | Nick Chubb | 135.36 | 135.4 | -0.1 | 118.9 | 24.7 | 151.8 | -24.7 |
| 135 | WR | Gabe Davis | 135.69 | 133.0 | 4.0 | 141.9 | -9.3 | 132.2 | 5.2 |
| 136 | RB | Zach Charbonnet | 135.74 | 134.8 | 1.4 | 137.8 | -3.1 | 134.6 | 1.7 |
| 137 | RB | Kendre Miller | 136.61 | 138.4 | -2.7 | 141.7 | -7.7 | 129.7 | 10.4 |
| 138 | TE | Pat Freiermuth | 139.00 | 137.0 | 3.0 | 139.3 | -0.4 | 140.7 | -2.6 |
| 139 | RB | Rico Dowdle | 140.16 | 140.7 | -0.8 | 140.2 | 0.0 | 139.6 | 0.8 |
| 140 | QB | Kirk Cousins | 141.90 | 145.2 | -5.0 | 133.2 | 13.1 | 147.3 | -8.1 |
| 141 | RB | MarShawn Lloyd | 142.32 | 141.6 | 1.1 | 147.2 | -7.4 | 138.1 | 6.3 |
| 142 | TE | Cole Kmet | 142.36 | 146.0 | -5.5 | 135.1 | 10.9 | 146.0 | -5.5 |
| 143 | RB | Ty Chandler | 144.05 | 144.5 | -0.7 | 147.3 | -4.8 | 140.4 | 5.5 |
| 144 | TE | T.J. Hockenson | 144.19 | 144.8 | -0.9 | 131.4 | 19.2 | 156.4 | -18.3 |
| 145 | WR | Xavier Legette | 144.69 | 138.2 | 9.7 | 153.1 | -12.6 | 142.8 | 2.8 |
| 146 | WR | Quentin Johnston | 146.73 | 148.1 | -2.1 | 143.3 | 5.2 | 148.8 | -3.1 |
| 147 | WR | Darnell Mooney | 147.87 | 149.6 | -2.6 | 150.8 | -4.4 | 143.2 | 7.0 |
| 148 | WR | Ja'Lynn Polk | 148.06 | 143.2 | 7.3 | 157.4 | -14.0 | 143.6 | 6.7 |
| 149 | QB | Matthew Stafford | 148.66 | 151.5 | -4.3 | 136.6 | 18.1 | 157.9 | -13.9 |
| 150 | WR | Jermaine Burton | 148.96 | 149.1 | -0.2 | 159.2 | -15.3 | 138.6 | 15.5 |
| 151 | WR | Ricky Pearsall | 150.97 | 142.6 | 12.6 | 162.0 | -16.6 | 148.3 | 4.0 |
| 152 | WR | Adam Thielen | 153.06 | 158.8 | -8.6 | 147.9 | 7.8 | 152.5 | 0.8 |
| 153 | RB | Jaylen Wright | 154.23 | 151.9 | 3.5 | 155.8 | -2.3 | 155.0 | -1.2 |
| 154 | TE | Luke Musgrave | 154.31 | 152.2 | 3.2 | 150.9 | 5.1 | 159.8 | -8.2 |
| 155 | RB | Ray Davis | 156.74 | 158.2 | -2.2 | 161.9 | -7.8 | 150.1 | 10.0 |
| 156 | RB | Antonio Gibson | 158.29 | 159.4 | -1.7 | 162.7 | -6.6 | 152.8 | 8.2 |
| 157 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | 158.89 | 159.7 | -1.2 | 147.0 | 17.9 | 170.0 | -16.7 |
| 158 | QB | Deshaun Watson | 159.53 | 162.6 | -4.6 | 154.4 | 7.7 | 161.6 | -3.1 |
| 159 | RB | Kimani Vidal | 161.36 | 161.3 | 0.1 | 168.6 | -10.8 | 154.2 | 10.7 |
| 160 | RB | Tyler Allgeier | 161.45 | 155.7 | 8.6 | 166.7 | -7.9 | 161.9 | -0.7 |
| 161 | WR | Roman Wilson | 161.50 | 155.4 | 9.2 | 171.3 | -14.7 | 157.8 | 5.6 |
| 162 | QB | Baker Mayfield | 162.61 | 168.4 | -8.7 | 148.7 | 20.8 | 170.7 | -12.1 |
| 163 | RB | Jaleel McLaughlin | 164.69 | 160.7 | 6.0 | 174.6 | -14.8 | 158.8 | 8.8 |
| 164 | TE | Hunter Henry | 165.00 | 163.7 | 2.0 | 171.8 | -10.2 | 159.5 | 8.3 |
| 165 | WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | 165.98 | 170.2 | -6.3 | 166.7 | -1.1 | 161.0 | 7.5 |
| 166 | WR | Rashod Bateman | 166.78 | 161.0 | 8.7 | 173.5 | -10.0 | 165.9 | 1.3 |
| 167 | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 167.63 | 170.4 | -4.2 | 164.1 | 5.3 | 168.4 | -1.2 |
| 168 | WR | Malachi Corley | 170.26 | 165.6 | 7.0 | 178.8 | -12.8 | 166.4 | 5.8 |
| 169 | QB | Geno Smith | 170.88 | 172.8 | -2.9 | 162.8 | 12.2 | 177.1 | -9.3 |
| 170 | TE | Taysom Hill | 172.29 | 215.6 | -65.0 | 151.2 | 31.7 | 150.1 | 33.3 |
| 171 | RB | Bucky Irving | 172.44 | 169.8 | 4.0 | 180.0 | -11.4 | 167.5 | 7.4 |
| 172 | WR | Michael Wilson | 172.83 | 174.0 | -1.7 | 179.5 | -10.0 | 165.0 | 11.8 |
| 173 | TE | Ben Sinnott | 173.08 | 168.3 | 7.2 | 163.7 | 14.0 | 187.2 | -21.2 |
| 174 | TE | Cade Otton | 173.51 | 175.4 | -2.8 | 164.8 | 13.0 | 180.3 | -10.2 |
| 175 | WR | Troy Franklin | 173.68 | 171.0 | 4.0 | 176.9 | -4.9 | 173.1 | 0.9 |
| 176 | RB | J.K. Dobbins | 174.89 | 182.5 | -11.4 | 159.0 | 23.9 | 183.2 | -12.5 |
| 177 | QB | Will Levis | 176.50 | 179.7 | -4.8 | 167.4 | 13.7 | 182.4 | -8.9 |
| 178 | WR | Marvin Mims | 177.31 | 173.4 | 5.9 | 181.3 | -6.0 | 177.2 | 0.2 |
| 179 | RB | Khalil Herbert | 178.97 | 178.2 | 1.2 | 185.1 | -9.2 | 173.6 | 8.1 |
| 180 | WR | Luke McCaffrey | 182.02 | 182.4 | -0.6 | 184.8 | -4.1 | 178.9 | 4.7 |
| 181 | WR | DeMario Douglas | 182.58 | 177.7 | 7.3 | 191.4 | -13.2 | 178.7 | 5.8 |
| 182 | TE | Tyler Conklin | 182.64 | 177.9 | 7.1 | 182.0 | 0.9 | 188.0 | -8.0 |
| 183 | WR | Demarcus Robinson | 183.09 | 181.7 | 2.1 | 194.8 | -17.5 | 172.8 | 15.4 |
| 184 | TE | Isaiah Likely | 183.11 | 184.3 | -1.8 | 176.3 | 10.2 | 188.7 | -8.4 |
| 185 | RB | Tyrone Tracy | 185.90 | 190.5 | -6.9 | 181.5 | 6.6 | 185.7 | 0.3 |
| 186 | RB | Braelon Allen | 185.92 | 184.0 | 2.9 | 196.7 | -16.1 | 177.1 | 13.2 |
| 187 | RB | Elijah Mitchell | 188.26 | 187.7 | 0.8 | 189.3 | -1.5 | 187.8 | 0.7 |
| 188 | WR | Zay Jones | 189.87 | 194.7 | -7.3 | 187.9 | 3.0 | 187.0 | 4.3 |
| 189 | QB | Derek Carr | 190.59 | 201.0 | -15.6 | 176.5 | 21.2 | 194.3 | -5.6 |
| 190 | QB | Bryce Young | 190.89 | 193.3 | -3.6 | 183.1 | 11.7 | 196.3 | -8.1 |
| 191 | RB | Roschon Johnson | 192.62 | 193.2 | -0.9 | 199.0 | -9.5 | 185.7 | 10.4 |
| 192 | TE | Jonnu Smith | 193.03 | 194.6 | -2.4 | 190.1 | 4.4 | 194.4 | -2.1 |
| 193 | TE | Noah Fant | 194.66 | 185.6 | 13.6 | 201.7 | -10.5 | 196.7 | -3.1 |
| 194 | RB | Dameon Pierce | 195.76 | 196.3 | -0.8 | 191.1 | 7.0 | 199.9 | -6.2 |
| 195 | TE | Chigoziem Okonkwo | 196.28 | 191.8 | 6.7 | 193.4 | 4.3 | 203.6 | -11.0 |
| 196 | WR | Javon Baker | 197.28 | 188.5 | 13.2 | 209.3 | -18.1 | 194.0 | 4.9 |
| 197 | TE | Juwan Johnson | 197.83 | 193.5 | 6.5 | 201.2 | -5.1 | 198.8 | -1.4 |
| 198 | QB | J.J. McCarthy | 198.84 | 198.8 | 0.1 | 187.0 | 17.7 | 210.7 | -17.8 |
| 199 | QB | Daniel Jones | 198.95 | 202.0 | -4.6 | 193.0 | 8.9 | 201.8 | -4.3 |
| 200 | QB | Drake Maye | 200.14 | 199.9 | 0.4 | 199.3 | 1.2 | 201.2 | -1.6 |
| 201 | RB | D'Onta Foreman | 200.63 | 202.4 | -2.6 | 206.8 | -9.3 | 192.7 | 11.9 |
| 202 | WR | Jalen Tolbert | 201.38 | 199.8 | 2.4 | 210.8 | -14.2 | 193.5 | 11.8 |
| 203 | WR | Jalen McMillan | 202.45 | 200.8 | 2.5 | 211.1 | -13.0 | 195.4 | 10.6 |
| 204 | WR | DJ Chark | 203.47 | 209.5 | -9.0 | 199.2 | 6.4 | 201.7 | 2.7 |
| 205 | QB | Justin Fields | 204.72 | 207.5 | -4.2 | 196.6 | 12.2 | 210.1 | -8.1 |
| 206 | WR | Devontez Walker | 204.85 | 201.0 | 5.8 | 217.6 | -19.2 | 195.9 | 13.4 |
| 207 | WR | Tyler Boyd | 204.90 | 204.3 | 0.9 | 203.0 | 2.8 | 207.4 | -3.7 |
| 208 | RB | Tank Bigsby | 207.26 | 206.8 | 0.7 | 208.3 | -1.5 | 206.7 | 0.8 |
| 209 | RB | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 207.50 | 204.4 | 4.7 | 214.7 | -10.8 | 203.4 | 6.2 |
| 210 | QB | Bo Nix | 207.66 | 208.7 | -1.6 | 204.5 | 4.8 | 209.8 | -3.2 |
| 211 | WR | Darius Slayton | 209.89 | 207.6 | 3.4 | 213.3 | -5.1 | 208.8 | 1.6 |
| 212 | QB | Russell Wilson | 210.82 | 210.7 | 0.2 | 204.6 | 9.4 | 217.2 | -9.6 |
| 213 | TE | Jelani Woods | 211.03 | 208.7 | 3.5 | 213.5 | -3.7 | 210.9 | 0.2 |
| 214 | TE | Ja'Tavion Sanders | 211.93 | 210.5 | 2.1 | 208.1 | 5.8 | 217.2 | -7.9 |
| 215 | TE | Mike Gesicki | 212.54 | 208.3 | 6.4 | 212.0 | 0.8 | 217.3 | -7.1 |
| 216 | RB | Keaton Mitchell | 212.62 | 211.8 | 1.2 | 205.6 | 10.6 | 220.5 | -11.8 |
Underdog Breakdown 🐕
Later ADPs (Cheaper) on UD
WR Nico Collins (19.6 vs. 17.6)
One might expect to see more running backs drafted early on a site that uses half-PPR instead of full, but that's never really been the case on Underdog, including this year. The other high-end WRs with projection profiles that are relatively light on targets/catches and heavy on yardage/touchdowns — Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, arguably Chris Olave — all have Underdog ADPs that are earlier or nearly identical to their ADPs on the other two sites.
Then there's Collins, an odd exception, going at 17.4 on Drafters and 17.6 on DraftKings but 19.6 on Underdog. And it's not because more people on UD are taking running backs in the second round; it's actually other wide receivers being propped up ahead of him, namely Olave and Aiyuk.
WR Brandin Cooks (124.3 vs. 114.4)
The ADP difference here isn't huge, but it's an interesting case because it's the opposite of what I'd expect. WRs generally tend to come off the board early on Underdog, and the site's half-PPR scoring seemingly makes Cooks a bit more valuable relative to other players at his position (he averaged just 5.1 targets and 3.4 catches per game last year but scored eight TDs). While he's unlikely to match the TD total this year, it's probably still fair to say Cooks is more dependent on big plays and touchdowns than the average wide receiver, as he's unlikely to return to his days of triple-digit targets unless CeeDee Lamb misses a bunch of games.
WR Cooper Kupp (31.1 vs. 26.6)
TE Travis Kelce (38.8 vs. 29.9)
WR Keon Coleman (71.6 vs. 67.1)
RB Jerome Ford (128.9 vs. 120.0)
QB Derek Carr (201.0 vs. 185.4)
WR Zay Jones (194.7 vs. 187.4)
Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on UD
RB Jonathon Brooks (87.3 vs. 95.7)
This is one of the few cases in which ADPs on DraftKings and Drafters are nearly identical and Underdog is the oddball. It's still far more common to see DraftKings be the outlier, although the aforementioned changes in the intro have reduced the extent to which that's true. Regardless, Brooks is a perfect example of a player that's more valuable in a playoff-centric format. His combination of youth/experience and rehab from an ACL tear means he's much more likely to put up big numbers in December than in September.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (17.5 vs. 20.8)
WR Tee Higgins (40.6 vs. 46.6)
WR Jordan Addison (67.9 vs. 75.5)
WR Adonai Mitchell (116.2 vs. 128.4)- WR Xavier Legette (138.2 vs. 147.9)
- WR Ricky Pearsall (142.6 vs. 155.2)
TE Noah Fant (185.6 vs. 199.2)
DraftKings Breakdown 👑
Later ADPs (Cheaper) on DK
QB Jayden Daniels (107.0 vs. 102.7)
Daniels' ADP on DK is only 4-5 picks lower than on the other two sites, but that makes him an incredible relative value once you see how strong the overall trend is of QBs being picked earlier on DraftKings. In fact, Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson are the only other signal-callers whose ADPs are lower on DK than on both of the other two sites. The yardage bonuses on DK favor pocket passers over scramblers, but not to an extent that fully explains Daniels, Murray and Richardson being the exceptions to the ADP rule. In fact, there are plenty of other mobile QBs — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields — that follow the trend rather than bucking it.
RB Braelon Allen (196.7 vs. 180.6)
RB Jaleel McLaughlin (174.6 vs. 159.8)
RB Tyler Allgeier (166.7 vs. 158.8)
RB Bucky Irving (180.0 vs. 168.6)
Up until Round 8 or 9, it's pretty much universal that running backs have earlier ADPs on DraftKings compared to the other two sites. Once we're outside the Top 100, it's much more of a mix, as players on DK seem to lose enthusiasm for the position once all the projected starters have been taken. This is a big mistake, especially when dealing with a high-injury-risk position in a format that puts all the weight on Weeks 15-17. Backup RBs like Allen and Allgeier probably won't do much Week 1 but might end up being key players for taking down big tournaments come late December.
- WR Chris Olave (19.7 vs. 16.7)
WR Malik Nabers (31.0 vs. 24.4)- WR DK Metcalf (35.1 vs. 27.8)
- WR Tank Dell (41.6 vs. 34.5)
WR Christian Kirk (48.1 vs. 41.3)- WR Tee Higgins (49.9 vs. 42.0)
- WR Terry McLaurin (56.4 vs. 45.9)
WR Rome Odunze (79.0 vs. 67.3)- WR Diontae Johnson (83.6 vs. 68.8)
- WR Brian Thomas (85.6 vs. 73.6)
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (94.5 vs. 77.5)
RB Jaylen Warren (94.8 vs. 89.2)- WR Courtland Sutton (106.3 vs. 89.6)
- WR Tyler Lockett (112.5 vs. 94.3)
- TE T.J. Hockenson (131.4 vs. 150.6)
- TE Cole Kmet (135.1 vs. 146.0)
WR Dontayvion Wicks (135.3 vs. 118.7)- WR Ricky Pearsall (162.0 vs. 145.4)
RB Kimani Vidal (168.6 vs. 157.8)
TE Hunter Henry (171.8 vs. 161.6)- RB Khalil Herbert (185.2 vs. 175.9)
- WR Demarcus Robinson (194.8 vs. 177.3)
- WR Javon Baker (209.3 vs. 191.2)
Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on DK
RB Saquon Barkley (15.1 vs. 20.8)
Barkley is all over the place, going early R2 on DraftKings, mid-R2 on UD (18.9) and near the 2-3 turn on Drafters (22.7). Running backs pretty consistently go earlier on DraftKings than on the other two sites — with ADPs perhaps more similar to what we see in a lot of redraft leagues — but even in that context Barkley stands out as especially pricey on DK. FWIW, I'd say he's underpriced on Drafters more so than overpriced on DraftKings, though really it seems like some of both.
RB Derrick Henry (24.1 vs. 34.9)
This is one where we see multiple DK trends combine forces. The first trend, as just mentioned, is general prioritization of running backs relative to other positions. The second trend can either be described as increased preference for name-brand commodities or decreased sensitivity to age; either way, it's been the case for years now that aging superstars like Henry have earlier ADPs on DraftKings than on other best ball sites. In this case, he seems like a rip-off at the 2-3 turn on a full-PPR site. He's going at the 3-4 turn on Drafters (37.0) and late-ish in Round 3 on half-PPR Underdog (32.8).
- RB Saquon Barkley (15.1 vs. 20.8)
- RB Kyren Williams (25.6 vs. 31.1)
- TE Travis Kelce (26.5 vs. 36.1)
- RB Travis Etienne (37.2 vs. 45.5)
- RB Isiah Pacheco (40.0 vs. 48.1)
- QB Patrick Mahomes (43.5 vs. 50.8)
- QB C.J. Stroud (53.0 vs. 64.1)
- RB Alvin Kamara (60.9 vs. 73.6)
- RB Aaron Jones (68.3 vs. 80.7)
RB Zamir White (76.0 vs. 88.0)- QB Dak Prescott (76.3 vs. 93.4)
- QB Brock Purdy (97.0 vs. 114.7)
- RB Austin Ekeler (103.1 vs. 125.5)
QB Jared Goff (103.0 vs. 126.3)- RB Nick Chubb (118.9 vs. 143.6)
- QB Matthew Stafford (136.6 vs. 154.7)
- QB Baker Mayfield (148.7 vs. 169.5)
- RB J.K. Dobbins (159.0 vs. 182.9)
- QB Derek Carr (176.5 vs. 197.7)
Drafters Breakdown 🤓
Later ADPs (Cheaper) on Drafters
RB De'Von Achane (28.6 vs. 23.8)- RB Kyren Williams (32.7 vs. 27.5)
ADP results on Drafters tend to be the closest to my personal rankings, in part because of the premium put on wide receivers. Still, I'm a bit surprised to see Achane and Williams going well outside the Top 25 in a total-points format where ceiling is everything. With no playoffs, you need to build a team that's dominant from start to finish, not just Weeks 15-17. And as much as the size/durability concerns for Achane and Williams are justified, they're both on the short list of players capable of averaging 20-plus PPR points per game. It's unwise to take a safe WR like DeVonta Smith or Mike Evans ahead of Achane and Williams in a season-long, total-points contest where half the money goes to the top .01 percent of teams.
- QB C.J. Stroud (68.8 vs. 56.2)
The trend with QBs is clear: they tend to go earliest on DK and latest on Drafters, falling somewhere in the middle on Underdog. The reverse is true with wide receivers, and if we were simply comparing UD to Drafters it would make perfect sense because full-PPR scoring widens the points gap between tiers of wide receivers (and thus reduces the relative gap between players at the lone position where guys don't get any points for receptions... QB).
The problem arises when trying to explain why QBs go so much earlier and WRs so much later on DraftKings (relative to Drafters). Both sites are PPR, and the differences between their scoring and formats mostly seem to have implications that impact which player(s) you choose at a given position, not how you prioritize one position relative to another.
- RB Saquon Barkley (22.7 vs. 17.0)
- QB Josh Allen (40.2 vs. 35.7)
- QB Jalen Hurts (44.6 vs. 39.5)
- RB Travis Etienne (48.1 vs. 40.0)
- QB Patrick Mahomes (52.6 vs. 46.2)
- RB Josh Jacobs (55.9 vs. 47.9)
- RB James Cook (64.1 vs. 56.6)
- RB Rachaad White (66.7 vs. 57.7)
- QB Joe Burrow (98.6 vs. 82.9)
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (135.4 vs. 117.6)
- QB Aaron Rodgers (170.0 vs. 153.3)
- TE Luke Musgrave (159.8 vs. 151.6)
- TE Ben Sinnott (187.2 vs. 166.0)
- WR Odell Beckham (223.9 vs. 108.7)
Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on Drafters
- WR Diontae Johnson (62.1 vs. 79.6)
I'm not even a fan of Johnson at his later ADP on the other sites, so there's no way I'm using a fifth/sixth-round pick on him in a format where it makes sense to swing for the fences with nearly every pick. He's a short-pass catcher joining an offense that was the league's worst last year, which doesn't exactly scream "upside"... actually, it doesn't really suggest a high floor either.
- WR Davante Adams (15.6 vs. 18.9)
- WR Malik Nabers (23.0 vs. 28.4)
- WR Christian Kirk (37.8 vs. 45.9)
- WR Terry McLaurin (41.6 vs. 53.2)
- WR Chris Godwin (52.9 vs. 64.3)
WR DeAndre Hopkins (60.7 vs. 72.4)- WR Diontae Johnson (62.1 vs. 79.6)
- RB Tyjae Spears (106.3 vs. 112.2)
- WR Joshua Palmer (98.6 vs. 116.2)
- WR Brandin Cooks (108.7 vs. 122.2)
- RB Jerome Ford (115.7 vs. 126.6)
- RB Kendre Miller (129.7 vs. 140.1)
- WR Jermaine Burton (138.6 vs. 154.1)
- RB Ray Davis (150.1 vs. 160.1)
