This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a wide receiver after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Marvin Harrison, Drake London and Davante Adams.
Marvin Harrison, Cardinals
Upside
There's no baseline for projection rookies, but the expectation for a wide receiver drafted in the first 15-20 fantasy picks should be in the 1,200-yard range. However, only eight wide receivers in NFL history have reached 1,200 yards in their first season. The good news for Harrison investors is three of the top four players on the list entered the league in the last five year: Puka Nacua (1,486 yards), Ja'Marr Chase (1,455 yards) and Justin Jefferson (1,400 yards). Harrison has a good quarterback in Kyler Murray, and the best-case scenario is a season similar to the above trio of receivers.
Downside
The unknown is the biggest variable. Sure, many analysts project Harrison to dominate as soon as he sets foot on an NFL field, but a lot of
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a wide receiver after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Marvin Harrison, Drake London and Davante Adams.
Marvin Harrison, Cardinals
Upside
There's no baseline for projection rookies, but the expectation for a wide receiver drafted in the first 15-20 fantasy picks should be in the 1,200-yard range. However, only eight wide receivers in NFL history have reached 1,200 yards in their first season. The good news for Harrison investors is three of the top four players on the list entered the league in the last five year: Puka Nacua (1,486 yards), Ja'Marr Chase (1,455 yards) and Justin Jefferson (1,400 yards). Harrison has a good quarterback in Kyler Murray, and the best-case scenario is a season similar to the above trio of receivers.
Downside
The unknown is the biggest variable. Sure, many analysts project Harrison to dominate as soon as he sets foot on an NFL field, but a lot of first-round rookies have disappointed. No receiver selected in the top 25 of the NFL Draft the last two seasons has had a 1,150-yard season as a rookie. Regardless, a low-end 1,100-yard season has to be the minimum expectation for the fourth pick in this year's draft. Those using a second-round fantasy pick on the former Ohio State star need to consider the possibility of him having a good, but not great season.
The Bottom Line
Recent history shows a first-year receiver can have a dominant season. However, long-term NFL history indicates that 1,100 yards is a more likely outcome than 1,300 or 1,400. Those who believe Harrison is already a superstar should be excited to draft him early. Those who prefer to bet on a player with more of a track record should fade Harrison unless he falls in drafts.
Drake London, Falcons
Upside
London has had two similar seasons to start his career. He's averaged 114 targets, 71 catches, 886 yards and three touchdowns. Those wishing to paint the upside case for London will note that the Falcons went from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson to run the offense. Going from a heavy-run offense to one that comes from the Sean McVay tree gives hope that targets for the 2022 No. 8 overall pick will increase from the 110 range to 140-150. It should be noted that when the wideout has been targeted eight or more times in his career, he averaged 6.5 receptions and 88 yards. In addition, he no longer has Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke throwing him the football. Instead, Kirk Cousins takes over. The veteran quarterback supported high-end wide receiver production in Minnesota. In a best-case scenario, London flirts with 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Downside
There are two scenarios that could keep London from having a strong season. If Cousins either struggles in his return from a torn Achilles or regresses in his age-36 season, the Falcons' passing attack could struggle. Also, if Robinson is unable to bring successful elements of the offense he coached in Los Angeles to Atlanta, London might not be optimized. Regardless, it's difficult to see a scenario in which the wideout fails to get more targers than he had the last two seasons. Also, the dropoff at wide receiver from London to Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore is significant. As a result, it seems unlikely that London ends the year with fewer than 1,175 yards and six touchdowns.
The Bottom Line
London no longer will be held back by the run-heavy approach the Falcons used the last two years. Quarterback play should be much better than what London's had. In addition, he has shown flashes of superstar ability. Even though London often is drafted around picks 15-17, those drafting in the 12 range should consider chasing the upside that should come with a high floor as well.
Davante Adams, Raiders
Upside
During his two years in Las Vegas, Adams has had 175 and 180 targets. Only a couple receivers in the league get that level of volume. However, the Las Vegas QB duo of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell have accuracy issues. Playing with suboptimal quarterbacks last year, Adams turned 175 targets into just 103-1,144-8. However, Minshew or O'Connell could provide Adams with higher quality passes than he saw last year. Even though the star will be 31 this season, he had averaged more than 1,400 yards in the three seasons before 2023. Knowing that the volume should still be through the roof, Adams could move back into the 1,300-yard range. There is also an additional upside case if the Raiders start the season poorly. If the team trades Adams during the season, the veteran could still be a top-3 receiver in a better situation.
Downside
We learned a lot about coach Antonio Pierce in Week 16 last year. In the game against the Chiefs, Pierce got exactly what he wanted. The Raiders played great defense and held a lead against Kansas City. As a result, Las Vegas attempted 21 passes. That lack of volume led to Adams catching one pass for four yards on six targets. Certainly, that type of stat line will not be the norm. However, the Raiders added a pair of tight ends this offseason, in addition to second-year Michael Mayer. New offensive coordinator Luke Getsy often uses multiple tight ends on the field. If the team decides to lean on a power running game, Adams could see his targets drop to the 140 range. With potentially shaky quarterback play, Adams could struggle to pass 1,000 yards.
The Bottom Line
When we draft a receiver, we are often making a bet on the quarterback as well. Due to his current situation, Adams may lack the high floor and ceiling that is expected of a top-18 pick in fantasy drafts. If the star falls outside the top-20 picks, the value would be better. This is a case of "love the player, hate the situation."
The Final Word
London showed that when he gets targets, he can play at a high level. It seems likely that the receiver will be heavily targeted. London will also have Kirk Cousins to elevate him. Although it's unlikely that London finishes as a top-6 receiver, he could easily finish just outside that range. In terms of Harrison, he has a good quarterback, but the fact he hasn't played an NFL snap makes me inclined to place him behind London. Although Adams may be the best player in this group, his situation is the worst. I would only draft Adams if he fell later in the draft.
