ADP Analysis: Tracking ADP Movement for Best Ball Since the 2024 NFL Draft

Written by

Published on May 17, 2024

Last week I wrote an article comparing ADPs between sites, looking at the differences between where players typically are drafted for best ball on Underdog, Drafters and DraftKings. Now it's time to see how ADPs have changed over time, comparing pre-draft numbers from April to the recent results in mid-May. Data from DraftKings won't be included in this iteration, as there isn't any from April from the comparison (they opened 2024 best ball contests the week after the NFL Draft).

All of this information is coming from best ball contests, but it's also useful for redraft and dynasty as a gauge of how 2024 expectations have changed for individual players. We always see some massive ADP swings in the days and weeks after the NFL Draft, with running backs in particular often gaining or losing a lot of value due to the new RBs their team drafted (or didn't). I'll also look at some rookies below, as well as some potentially confusing cases where there's a significant ADP change that can't cleanly be explained by events from the draft.

Before we get to my analysis at the bottom, let's take a look at the numbers in a big, sortable chart. On the right-hand side, you'll see two columns specific to Underdog and two specific to Drafters, showing ADPs from April and May. On the left you'll find three columns that entail data from both sites, showing average ADPs between the two from April and May, plus the difference between those two numbers.

The guys I'll discuss at the bottom are some of the players with the most noteworthy differences in that 'Δ May/Apr' column. Keep in mind that a two-spot move in the first round (e.g. Bijan Robinson) is much more meaningful than a 12-spot move in the 15th (e.g. Juwan Johnson).

	Pos	Player	Avg May	Δ May/Apr	Avg Apr	UD May	UD Apr	DR May	DR Apr
1	RB	Christian McCaffrey	1.3	0.0	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.3
2	WR	CeeDee Lamb	2.0	0.2	2.2	2.1	2.4	1.9	2.0
3	WR	Tyreek Hill	3.3	0.0	3.3	3.2	3.2	3.3	3.3
4	WR	Ja'Marr Chase	4.1	0.1	4.2	4.1	4.3	4.0	4.1
5	WR	Justin Jefferson	5.2	1.2	6.4	5.2	6.2	5.2	6.6
6	WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6.3	1.2	7.4	6.6	7.6	5.9	7.2
7	RB	Bijan Robinson	7.0	-2.0	5.1	6.6	5.4	7.4	4.7
8	RB	Breece Hall	8.0	-1.3	6.7	7.7	6.5	8.2	6.8
9	WR	Puka Nacua	9.1	0.1	9.2	9.4	9.5	8.7	8.9
10	WR	A.J. Brown	10.2	0.2	10.4	10.2	10.5	10.2	10.3
11	WR	Garrett Wilson	11.0	0.6	11.6	11.1	11.9	10.8	11.2
12	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	12.4	-0.3	12.1	12.1	11.4	12.6	12.7
13	WR	Marvin Harrison	13.3	4.3	17.6	13.4	17.4	13.2	17.8
14	WR	Drake London	15.0	1.9	16.9	15.8	19.1	14.2	14.7
15	RB	Jonathan Taylor	15.6	1.1	16.6	15.5	15.9	15.6	17.3
16	RB	Saquon Barkley	16.8	1.1	17.9	14.9	16.5	18.7	19.2
17	WR	Chris Olave	17.2	6.3	23.6	18.3	26.9	16.1	20.2
18	WR	Davante Adams	18.1	0.4	18.4	18.9	20.0	17.2	16.8
19	WR	Brandon Aiyuk	18.3	4.2	22.5	17.7	21.7	18.9	23.2
20	RB	Kyren Williams	21.0	-7.5	13.5	20.6	13.6	21.3	13.4
21	WR	Nico Collins	21.7	-6.8	15.0	22.9	15.4	20.5	14.5
22	RB	De'Von Achane	23.2	-2.5	20.7	22.4	19.3	23.9	22.0
23	WR	Mike Evans	23.3	5.3	28.6	24.8	28.2	21.8	29.0
24	WR	Deebo Samuel	23.7	4.1	27.8	22.5	26.4	24.9	29.2
25	WR	Stefon Diggs	24.8	-1.5	23.3	24.9	22.9	24.6	23.6
26	WR	Jaylen Waddle	27.2	3.4	30.6	27.6	32.1	26.8	29.0
27	WR	Malik Nabers	28.1	3.8	31.9	28.2	30.4	28.0	33.4
28	WR	DJ Moore	28.3	-4.1	24.2	27.1	22.4	29.5	26.0
29	WR	Michael Pittman	28.5	2.6	31.0	30.4	30.5	26.5	31.5
30	TE	Sam LaPorta	29.0	4.4	33.4	28.8	33.6	29.1	33.1
31	WR	DeVonta Smith	32.0	6.6	38.6	33.6	37.8	30.4	39.3
32	WR	DK Metcalf	33.1	3.8	36.9	33.2	35.1	33.0	38.7
33	QB	Josh Allen	33.2	-8.8	24.4	32.9	23.5	33.4	25.2
34	WR	Cooper Kupp	33.4	4.1	37.5	35.3	39.1	31.5	35.8
35	RB	Derrick Henry	35.6	0.8	36.3	32.2	38.7	38.9	33.9
36	TE	Travis Kelce	35.9	4.1	40.0	38.4	42.2	33.3	37.7
37	RB	Josh Jacobs	36.3	-4.2	32.1	34.2	33.2	38.3	30.9
38	WR	Zay Flowers	38.6	9.6	48.2	40.0	47.9	37.2	48.5
39	QB	Jalen Hurts	39.1	-2.3	36.8	37.6	36.2	40.5	37.3
40	RB	Travis Etienne	40.0	1.0	41.0	37.6	37.6	42.4	44.3
41	WR	Tank Dell	41.6	-12.6	29.0	43.1	30.2	40.0	27.8
42	WR	Tee Higgins	42.2	3.3	45.5	42.2	44.8	42.1	46.2
43	TE	Trey McBride	43.1	3.7	46.8	44.8	51.2	41.4	42.3
44	QB	Lamar Jackson	43.5	-0.6	42.9	42.3	43.3	44.6	42.4
45	QB	Patrick Mahomes	46.9	4.1	51.0	44.2	49.3	49.5	52.6
46	RB	Isiah Pacheco	47.2	6.1	53.3	46.4	51.9	47.9	54.6
47	WR	George Pickens	47.7	3.2	50.9	47.3	51.5	48.1	50.2
48	WR	Keenan Allen	48.1	-6.6	41.6	52.5	42.3	43.7	40.8
49	TE	Dalton Kincaid	48.7	16.0	64.7	50.2	67.2	47.1	62.1
50	WR	Amari Cooper	50.1	-0.3	49.9	51.2	49.0	49.0	50.7
51	WR	Christian Kirk	50.5	1.5	51.9	55.0	55.0	45.9	48.8
52	QB	C.J. Stroud	51.4	11.2	62.6	48.6	60.2	54.2	64.9
53	TE	Mark Andrews	52.4	-1.3	51.0	53.4	53.6	51.3	48.4
54	RB	James Cook	53.6	-1.6	52.1	50.6	46.9	56.6	57.2
55	WR	Terry McLaurin	55.6	2.1	57.7	58.6	58.2	52.6	57.1
56	RB	Rachaad White	56.8	-7.8	49.0	53.6	45.6	59.9	52.4
57	WR	Xavier Worthy	57.0	42.6	99.6	57.3	102.5	56.7	96.6
58	RB	Joe Mixon	57.6	3.6	61.2	55.4	61.5	59.8	60.8
59	WR	Jayden Reed	57.6	-2.1	55.5	58.7	56.0	56.5	55.0
60	QB	Anthony Richardson	58.6	2.3	60.9	56.3	57.9	60.8	63.8
61	TE	Kyle Pitts	58.7	-3.0	55.7	60.8	63.6	56.5	47.7
62	WR	Marquise Brown	61.8	-1.6	60.3	61.9	63.0	61.7	57.5
63	WR	Calvin Ridley	65.0	-5.2	59.8	67.4	61.1	62.5	58.5
64	RB	Kenneth Walker	66.3	-0.8	65.4	62.0	59.6	70.5	71.2
65	RB	Alvin Kamara	66.4	4.0	70.4	65.7	68.5	67.0	72.2
66	TE	George Kittle	67.1	5.0	72.1	66.8	70.6	67.4	73.5
67	WR	Rome Odunze	67.3	-16.8	50.5	66.3	48.8	68.2	52.2
68	WR	Ladd McConkey	70.2	48.2	118.3	69.6	122.8	70.7	113.8
69	TE	Evan Engram	71.0	0.8	71.8	75.9	77.1	66.1	66.4
70	WR	Chris Godwin	71.8	-2.3	69.5	76.7	72.2	66.9	66.8
71	WR	Rashee Rice	72.3	-47.7	24.6	76.3	27.4	68.2	21.7
72	RB	Aaron Jones	72.4	-0.8	71.6	71.5	69.7	73.2	73.4
73	WR	Jordan Addison	72.6	-4.7	67.9	69.4	68.4	75.7	67.4
74	WR	Keon Coleman	74.4	62.3	136.7	73.9	133.4	74.9	140.0
75	WR	Brian Thomas	74.5	-8.8	65.7	74.1	65.2	74.9	66.1
76	QB	Kyler Murray	77.0	3.9	80.9	79.0	86.0	74.9	75.7
77	WR	Diontae Johnson	77.1	-6.6	70.5	82.4	73.1	71.8	67.9
78	RB	David Montgomery	77.8	-3.0	74.8	73.3	71.5	82.2	78.1
79	RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	78.4	3.1	81.5	77.1	80.2	79.7	82.7
80	QB	Joe Burrow	79.3	2.3	81.5	71.9	73.9	86.6	89.1
81	RB	Zamir White	81.0	12.7	93.7	80.3	98.3	81.6	89.0
82	WR	DeAndre Hopkins	81.4	-7.5	74.0	84.5	76.3	78.3	71.6
83	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	82.4	-3.0	79.5	81.4	76.4	83.4	82.5
84	TE	Jake Ferguson	83.3	4.5	87.8	88.1	93.7	78.4	81.8
85	WR	Christian Watson	83.5	0.0	83.5	86.1	82.1	80.8	84.8
86	RB	D'Andre Swift	84.7	2.4	87.1	83.3	86.9	86.1	87.2
87	QB	Dak Prescott	87.2	-2.9	84.3	84.9	79.2	89.4	89.3
88	QB	Jordan Love	89.2	-6.8	82.4	89.1	83.2	89.3	81.6
89	RB	Najee Harris	90.0	-2.7	87.3	87.3	84.7	92.7	89.9
90	RB	Jaylen Warren	90.6	5.3	95.9	92.8	90.7	88.3	101.0
91	RB	Tony Pollard	92.8	-8.4	84.4	91.7	81.2	93.9	87.6
92	RB	James Conner	93.6	-15.1	78.5	91.7	81.9	95.4	75.0
93	TE	David Njoku	94.1	-8.1	86.0	99.3	91.9	88.8	80.1
94	RB	Raheem Mostert	94.3	-1.3	93.0	92.8	89.2	95.8	96.8
95	RB	Zack Moss	95.2	9.0	104.2	94.4	106.3	95.9	102.0
96	WR	Curtis Samuel	96.3	20.8	117.0	99.9	123.9	92.6	110.1
97	WR	Jameson Williams	96.7	1.3	98.0	99.9	96.1	93.5	99.9
98	QB	Caleb Williams	97.0	13.2	110.2	94.8	109.2	99.2	111.2
99	RB	Jonathon Brooks	97.1	27.5	124.5	92.7	120.2	101.4	128.8
100	TE	Brock Bowers	97.9	-18.9	79.0	98.5	82.1	97.3	75.9
101	RB	Javonte Williams	103.5	-9.5	94.0	104.6	94.2	102.3	93.7
102	RB	Trey Benson	104.0	3.8	107.8	101.8	104.9	106.2	110.6
103	WR	Tyler Lockett	104.9	6.7	111.5	109.7	114.9	100.0	108.1
104	QB	Brock Purdy	105.5	-6.6	98.9	103.0	97.0	107.9	100.8
105	WR	Mike Williams	105.6	-10.6	95.0	105.5	99.3	105.6	90.7
106	QB	Jayden Daniels	107.2	22.2	129.4	106.3	129.7	108.1	129.0
107	WR	Courtland Sutton	107.5	-3.6	103.9	106.2	101.5	108.7	106.2
108	WR	Romeo Doubs	109.9	-18.5	91.4	115.7	97.5	104.0	85.2
109	WR	Khalil Shakir	110.8	17.5	128.3	115.7	133.9	105.8	122.6
110	RB	Devin Singletary	111.0	-1.2	109.9	114.0	114.1	108.0	105.6
111	TE	Dallas Goedert	111.2	0.2	111.4	113.2	114.4	109.1	108.3
112	RB	Austin Ekeler	111.9	-16.9	95.1	108.8	93.8	115.0	96.3
113	RB	Brian Robinson	113.7	-1.4	112.4	111.2	107.8	116.2	116.9
114	RB	Nick Chubb	116.2	-13.4	102.8	104.4	89.2	128.0	116.4
115	RB	Chase Brown	116.3	1.5	117.8	119.6	113.7	113.0	121.8
116	QB	Trevor Lawrence	116.8	3.2	120.0	117.7	118.7	115.9	121.3
117	WR	Adonai Mitchell	117.5	-22.7	94.8	113.3	97.9	121.6	91.6
118	QB	Tua Tagovailoa	117.9	-3.4	114.6	111.7	107.5	124.1	121.6
119	WR	Jakobi Meyers	118.3	-15.2	103.2	121.7	104.1	114.9	102.2
120	WR	Rashid Shaheed	119.9	11.3	131.2	122.5	134.5	117.2	127.8
121	TE	T.J. Hockenson	120.1	6.7	126.8	114.8	122.7	125.4	130.9
122	RB	Gus Edwards	120.5	-2.5	118.1	117.4	123.5	123.6	112.6
123	WR	Joshua Palmer	120.8	21.6	142.4	126.0	141.0	115.5	143.7
124	QB	Jared Goff	121.2	-5.0	116.2	120.6	117.9	121.7	114.4
125	RB	Tyjae Spears	121.7	-6.3	115.5	123.6	107.3	119.8	123.6
126	TE	Dalton Schultz	122.1	-17.0	105.2	125.8	114.7	118.4	95.6
127	QB	Justin Herbert	124.9	-4.6	120.3	122.8	112.1	126.9	128.4
128	WR	Gabe Davis	128.1	-9.1	119.0	129.6	120.6	126.5	117.4
129	RB	Ezekiel Elliott	130.4	80.1	210.5	128.1	214.7	132.6	206.2
130	RB	Blake Corum	130.4	2.6	133.0	130.3	128.4	130.4	137.5
131	WR	Jerry Jeudy	130.8	-6.0	124.8	131.7	127.2	129.8	122.3
132	RB	Jerome Ford	131.9	4.8	136.8	136.8	139.9	127.0	133.6
133	WR	Brandin Cooks	132.2	10.9	143.1	134.6	143.4	129.7	142.7
134	WR	Jahan Dotson	133.6	5.6	139.2	132.5	139.8	134.6	138.6
135	QB	Kirk Cousins	134.7	-22.0	112.8	133.6	120.9	135.8	104.6
136	WR	Josh Downs	135.3	-24.6	110.7	137.7	108.8	132.8	112.6
137	RB	Zach Charbonnet	136.6	-2.2	134.4	136.0	135.9	137.2	132.9
138	TE	Cole Kmet	138.1	-3.9	134.2	135.1	132.9	141.0	135.5
139	WR	Xavier Legette	139.1	13.1	152.2	139.5	156.0	138.7	148.3
140	RB	Rico Dowdle	140.2	27.1	167.2	140.4	164.9	139.9	169.5
141	TE	Pat Freiermuth	142.0	4.1	146.1	141.7	143.8	142.2	148.3
142	WR	Dontayvion Wicks	143.2	2.9	146.1	145.4	144.3	140.9	147.8
143	RB	Jaylen Wright	145.0	-6.4	138.6	145.1	137.3	144.9	139.9
144	WR	Ricky Pearsall	145.2	18.4	163.6	144.4	165.5	146.0	161.6
145	QB	Matthew Stafford	147.0	-6.0	141.0	142.7	136.8	151.2	145.1
146	WR	Darnell Mooney	147.5	-1.3	146.2	150.5	153.0	144.4	139.3
147	WR	Quentin Johnston	148.7	-11.3	137.4	148.9	137.2	148.4	137.5
148	RB	MarShawn Lloyd	149.6	8.4	158.1	147.3	155.8	151.9	160.3
149	RB	Kendre Miller	150.9	4.5	155.4	154.4	153.3	147.3	157.5
150	RB	Ty Chandler	151.4	2.2	153.6	152.4	151.2	150.4	156.0
151	WR	Troy Franklin	152.1	-35.1	117.0	153.4	118.9	150.7	115.1
152	QB	Aaron Rodgers	152.2	-4.0	148.1	147.7	141.9	156.6	154.3
153	TE	Luke Musgrave	153.3	-6.4	146.9	152.2	148.5	154.3	145.2
154	RB	Ray Davis	154.3	30.2	184.5	158.8	189.9	149.8	179.1
155	WR	Michael Wilson	154.9	-10.9	144.0	157.5	151.3	152.3	136.7
156	WR	Ja'Lynn Polk	156.9	25.1	182.0	155.7	179.7	158.1	184.3
157	WR	Roman Wilson	157.2	-2.0	155.1	159.2	156.8	155.1	153.4
158	TE	Ben Sinnott	161.0	75.3	236.3	152.4	237.5	169.6	235.1
159	TE	Hunter Henry	161.2	10.5	171.7	161.7	173.2	160.7	170.2
160	QB	Baker Mayfield	161.4	-11.1	150.4	156.9	151.5	165.9	149.2
161	WR	Jermaine Burton	161.9	43.7	205.5	161.6	199.5	162.1	211.5
162	QB	Deshaun Watson	162.9	-7.0	155.9	161.4	157.3	164.4	154.5
163	RB	Kimani Vidal	163.3	75.3	238.6	163.1	237.1	163.5	240.0
164	RB	Antonio Gibson	163.3	-0.2	163.1	170.8	168.0	155.8	158.2
165	WR	Adam Thielen	163.9	0.1	164.0	166.8	166.1	161.0	161.9
166	RB	Chuba Hubbard	165.8	-43.3	122.5	166.6	124.4	164.9	120.6
167	RB	Tyler Allgeier	166.4	-7.2	159.3	168.0	163.2	164.8	155.3
168	RB	J.K. Dobbins	166.5	38.0	204.5	161.2	198.9	171.7	210.0
169	WR	Malachi Corley	166.8	16.2	183.0	169.5	185.0	164.1	180.9
170	TE	Juwan Johnson	170.1	11.5	181.6	174.1	183.4	166.1	179.7
171	WR	Marvin Mims	170.6	-22.8	147.8	170.7	148.0	170.4	147.6
172	RB	Bucky Irving	171.4	21.1	192.5	173.5	186.2	169.3	198.8
173	TE	Cade Otton	173.3	-8.1	165.2	167.8	163.2	178.7	167.2
174	QB	Geno Smith	176.3	1.5	177.8	172.6	176.1	179.9	179.4
175	WR	Luke McCaffrey	178.9	59.5	238.4	178.5	236.7	179.3	240.0
176	RB	Khalil Herbert	179.4	2.3	181.7	182.1	178.7	176.7	184.6
177	TE	Isaiah Likely	179.8	-4.8	175.0	178.1	172.4	181.4	177.5
178	QB	Will Levis	180.7	-13.7	167.0	177.1	166.2	184.3	167.8
179	WR	Rashod Bateman	180.8	2.8	183.5	183.1	184.8	178.4	182.2
180	WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	181.4	-14.3	167.1	186.2	172.1	176.6	162.1
181	WR	Javon Baker	181.7	33.1	214.8	184.0	212.1	179.4	217.5
182	RB	Jaleel McLaughlin	181.8	-30.1	151.7	181.3	151.7	182.2	151.6
183	TE	Jonnu Smith	182.1	-14.9	167.2	187.5	175.2	176.6	159.1
184	RB	Tyrone Tracy	183.3	56.8	240.0	185.5	240.0	181.0	240.0
185	TE	Tyler Conklin	184.5	7.3	191.8	179.8	191.4	189.2	192.1
186	RB	Roschon Johnson	184.6	-9.6	175.1	182.4	171.5	186.8	178.6
187	QB	J.J. McCarthy	187.6	6.8	194.4	177.6	190.5	197.6	198.2
188	WR	Demario Douglas	188.6	-18.2	170.4	190.6	170.5	186.6	170.3
189	WR	Demarcus Robinson	190.4	10.6	201.0	194.6	211.4	186.2	190.6
190	RB	Keaton Mitchell	192.0	-5.1	186.8	190.6	182.1	193.3	191.5
191	QB	Drake Maye	193.0	-39.9	153.2	193.4	147.4	192.6	158.9
192	TE	Noah Fant	193.4	3.3	196.7	191.5	196.7	195.3	196.7
193	QB	Derek Carr	196.9	-19.3	177.6	199.4	181.4	194.3	173.7
194	RB	Dameon Pierce	197.9	15.0	212.9	193.4	205.7	202.4	220.1
195	WR	Devontez Walker	198.5	-0.3	198.2	198.2	193.5	198.8	202.8
196	RB	Elijah Mitchell	198.8	-24.5	174.4	200.5	175.1	197.1	173.6
197	QB	Bryce Young	200.5	-9.6	190.8	198.4	188.4	202.5	193.2
198	WR	Odell Beckham	201.3	28.5	229.8	197.7	234.6	204.9	225.0
199	QB	Justin Fields	201.5	-25.6	175.9	194.5	163.2	208.5	188.6
200	WR	Malik Washington	202.7	4.3	207.0	208.0	211.8	197.3	202.1
201	RB	Audric Estime	204.6	-11.3	193.4	209.1	194.3	200.1	192.4
202	QB	Daniel Jones	204.8	-3.9	201.0	204.4	210.1	205.2	191.8
203	RB	Will Shipley	206.4	-1.3	205.2	210.0	210.1	202.8	200.2
204	TE	Chigoziem Okonkwo	206.7	-11.7	195.1	197.4	195.7	216.0	194.4
205	WR	Jalen McMillan	207.4	10.6	218.0	210.5	217.0	204.3	219.0
206	TE	Ja'Tavion Sanders	208.0	-0.8	207.2	206.2	202.5	209.8	211.8
207	RB	Isaac Guerendo	208.8	9.6	218.4	208.4	240.0	209.2	196.8
208	WR	Tyler Boyd	209.1	-5.6	203.5	202.2	196.6	216.0	210.4
209	QB	Bo Nix	209.8	21.7	231.5	208.7	235.1	210.8	227.8
210	TE	Mike Gesicki	209.9	-1.2	208.7	203.8	203.7	216.0	213.7
211	TE	Tucker Kraft	211.3	3.8	215.1	206.5	213.9	216.0	216.2
212	WR	Elijah Moore	212.0	5.3	217.3	208.0	207.2	216.0	227.4
213	WR	DJ Chark	212.5	27.4	239.9	209.0	239.7	216.0	240.0
214	WR	Jalin Hyatt	213.1	-6.0	207.1	211.0	198.6	215.2	215.6
215	WR	Brenden Rice	213.3	18.3	231.6	210.5	231.6	216.0	231.5
216	QB	Russell Wilson	213.6	-10.9	202.8	211.2	200.1	216.0	205.4

ADP Moving Up ⬆️

ARI WR Marvin Harrison (Apr: 17.6 > May: 13.3)

This seems like a lot of movement for someone that we knew would be a top-five pick and quite possibly going to Arizona. It also feels too early for any rookie WR, though there have certainly been cases like Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham and Justin Jefferson where the Year 1 production ended up being first-round worthy. I wasn't drafting Harrison in the middle of Round 2 before and definitely won't be taking him at the 1/2 turn now. You could maybe talk me into this ADP if a WR-needy team with a top QB (e.g. Bills/Chargers) had traded the farm to move up for Harrison. As much as I like Kyler Murray, he's not a top passer and probably won't be anywhere near the league leaders for pass attempts.

WR Chris Olave (Apr: 23.6 > May: 17.2)

This mostly seems like a correction to Olave going later than he should've earlier in the offseason, with perhaps some additional impact from the Saints waiting until Round 5 to draft a pass catcher (Oklahoma WR Bub Means). Whatever the case, Olave has gone from undervalued to properly valued in my book.

WR Brandon Aiyuk (Apr: 22.5 > May: 18.3)

WR Deebo Samuel (Apr: 27.8 > May: 23.7)

This is the major ADP shift that surprised me most, in part because the 49ers drafted WR Ricky Pearsall in the first round and WR Jacob Cowing in the fourth. While those picks were for the future more so than 2024, it is possible Pearsall steals a few routes from Aiyuk and/or Samuel here and there. It's also possible Pearsall takes the No. 3 job from Jauan Jennings, who was targeted on only 16.0 percent of his routes last year (compared to 24.2 percent for Samuel and 26.0 percent for Aiyuk). Volume isn't a likely strong suit for San Francisco's pass catchers in the first place, and Pearsall could push a bit more of it toward the No. 3 or No. 4 receiver role.

My best explanation for the ADP gains is that there was pre-draft anxiety about Aiyuk or Samuel being traded to a lesser situation like New England or Pittsburgh. But I don't really get the logic there, as it would be a good thing for whichever guy wasn't dealt, plus there was also some chance of being traded to a team that would provide more targets in a solid offense (though obviously not an offense as good as San Francisco's). Anyway, the prices here are too rich for my blood, considering neither Samuel nor Aiyuk is likely to reach even 125 targets without the other missing a bunch of time. Both can put up high-end WR2 numbers without that kind of volume, as we've already seen, but when talking about top-25 picks I want a WR1 ceiling that doesn't require teammate injuries.

BAL WR Zay Flowers (Apr: 48.2 > May: 38.6)

I think a lot of people overestimated the chances of Baltimore drafting a wide receiver early. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has made it clear he likes Rashod Bateman (more than he probably should), and TE Isaiah Likely's emergence in the second half of last season gives Baltimore yet another reason to rank near the bottom of the league in three-wide usage. Likely might even be the third option this year, though it would probably be a distant third behind Flowers and TE Mark Andrews. The early-fourth-round pick Baltimore spent on UNC WR Devontez Walker was about what I expected in terms of draft capital devoted to the position, and at this point I'd argue Flowers has gone from accurately valued to slightly overrated. There's no way I'm taking him over RB Travis Etienne (May ADP 40.0),

WR Xavier Worthy (Apr: 99.6 > May: 57.0)

LAC WR Ladd McConkey (Apr: 118.3 > May: 70.2)

BUF WR Keon Coleman (Apr: 136.7 > May: 74.4)

These three all shot up the ADP ranks after landing with teams that are weak at WR and strong at QB. Coleman also happened to be drafted earlier than most expected, and McConkey perhaps a bit earlier too. The biggest takeaway here is that there's generally value in drafting rookies early in the offseason. No rookie fell as far as these guys rose, including Troy Franklin. I also think Worthy and McConkey were simply going way too late before the draft.

Worthy was never making it past the Top 50 after his record-setting 40, and McConkey was a lock for Day 2 with an outside shot to sneak into the back end of the first round. Their new ADPs seem fair, more or less, whereas Coleman is going a round or three early for my liking. Draft capital matters, but I also still care that Coleman had a weaker prospect profile heading into the draft.

DAL RB Ezekiel Elliott (Apr: 210.5 > May: 130.4)

DAL RB Rico Dowdle (Apr: 167.2 > May: 140.2)

Elliott moved up the most of any player, making an 80-pick jump from Round 18 to Round 11. Dowdle's rise was more modest, though perhaps also misguided. He went undrafted back in 2020 and lingered on the Cowboys' practice squad or at the bottom of their roster for three years, and he failed to impress last year when he finally got his "big chance" as the No. 2 back. He'll need to fight for that role again, while Elliott's combination of blocking, pass catching and short-yardage running makes him a heavy favorite to lead the Dallas RBs in snaps and touches. The ADP gap between Zeke and Dowdle should be a lot more than 10 picks.

Others

ATL WR Drake London (Apr: 16.9 > May: 15.0)

WR Mike Evans (Apr: 28.6 > May: 23.3)

DET TE Sam LaPorta (Apr: 33.4 > May: 29.0)

PHI WR DeVonta Smith (Apr: 38.6 > May: 32.0)

BUF TE Dalton Kincaid (Apr: 64.7 > May: 48.7)

HOU QB C.J. Stroud (Apr: 62.6 > May: 51.4)

RB Zamir White (Apr: 93.7 > May: 81.0)

BUF WR Curtis Samuel (Apr: 117.0 > May: 96.3)

BUF WR Khalil Shakir (Apr: 128.3 > May: 110.8)

CHI QB Caleb Williams (Apr: 100.2 > May: 97.0)

CAR RB Jonathon Brooks (Apr: 124.5 > May: 97.1)

WAS QB Jayden Daniels (Apr: 129.4 > May: 107.2)

WR Rashid Shaheed (Apr: 131.2 > May: 119.9)

LAC WR Joshua Palmer (Apr: 142.2 > May: 120.8)

WR Ricky Pearsall (Apr: 163.6 > May: 145.2)

BUF RB Ray Davis (Apr: 184.5 > May: 153.3)

WR Ja'Lynn Polk (Apr: 182.0 > May: 156.9)

WAS TE Ben Sinnott (Apr: 236.3 > May: 161.0)

CIN WR Jermaine Burton (Apr: 205.5 > May: 161.9)

LAC RB Kimani Vidal (Apr: 238.6 > May: 163.3)

LAC RB J.K. Dobbins (Apr: 204.5 > May: 166.5)

RB Bucky Irving (Apr: 192.5 > May: 171.4)

WAS WR Luke McCaffrey (Apr: 238.4 > May: 178.9)

WR Javon Baker (Apr: 214.8 > May: 181.7)

NYG RB Tyrone Tracy (Apr: 240.0 > May: 183.3)

MIA WR Odell Beckham (Apr: 229.8 > May: 201.3)

LAC WR DJ Chark (Apr: 239.9 > May: 212.5)

ADP Moving Down ⬇️

RB Bijan Robinson (Apr: 5.1 > May: 7.0)

This one doesn't have a clear transaction-related explanation, but it's nonetheless significant to see that Robinson and RB Breece Hall (6.7 > 8.0) have dropped on both sites while WRs Justin Jefferson (6.4 > 5.2) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (7.4 > 6.3) have gained ground. You could argue that the Vikings drafting QB J.J. McCarthy and the Lions not drafting any WRs played a small role, but mostly it just seems to be a positional thing with more people preferring to score an elite receiver early.

I don't necessarily disagree, as WRs have a lower injury rate (objective) and there's a lot of RB value after the first few rounds (subjective). That said, Hall seems poised for an absolutely massive season behind the Jets' remade offensive line. Robinson I'm a bit less bullish on, and I don't think I'd ever pick him ahead of ARSB or Hall. The question for me is whether I want to draft Robinson or Jefferson when St. Brown and Hall are gone (along with Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase. Personally, I rank them: McCaffrey>Hill>Lamb>Hall>Chase>ARSB>JJ/Bijan. Those are the eight players I consider to be strong first-round picks, though you won't find me in tears if I get a later selection and score two out of Garrett Wilson, A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Puka Nacua and Drake London.

RB Kyren Williams (Apr: 13.5 > May: 21.0)

Williams has steadily lost ground throughout the offseason, with the luster of his 2023 production wearing off and concerns about his durability and future workloads setting in. Blake Corum joining the Rams in the third round adds to Williams' workload questions, though it also improves the third-year pro's chances of making it through the season intact. My own feelings regarding Williams essentially have mirrored public opinion at each stage, which is kind of lame to admit. Last year's per-game production was early-first-round stuff, but the downside risk with a 194-pound back was always greater than I estimated at the beginning of the offseason when ranking Williams as a mid-to-late first rounder.

WR Nico Collins (Apr: 15.0 > May: 21.7)
WR Tank Dell (Apr: 29.0 > May: 41.6)

The last iteration of this article came out right before the Stefon Diggs trade. What's strange to me is that Diggs' ADP has dropped by just 1.5 spots, whereas Collins has gone down by 6.8 and Tank Dell by 12.6. That implies far more confidence in C.J. Stroud than Josh Allen, or else concerns about Diggs being unrelated to team context and more centered on aging. Either way, Collins is the one I want, as he's seemingly least at risk of losing snaps/routes to the others and is at the optimal point in his aging curve.

RB Rachaad White (Apr: 49.0 > May: 56.8)

I'm not sure if this is more due to a general trend of RBs falling or because the Bucs spent a fourth-round pick on Bucky Irving. Either way, White already looked like a nice value and now stands out as one of the best buys for any position/round. Irving was a great college player, but his pro prospects took a huge hit when he ran a 4.55 40 at 5-9, 192. He ended up going late in the fourth round, and even if he's successful in the NFL it won't necessarily take much of White's plate this season.

Ordinary as he may be as a pure runner, White is a 214-pound back with an 89.1 percent career catch rate and hasn't missed a game through two seasons. The fifth round of fantasy drafts is extraordinarily late for someone who had 336 touches last season and has a realistic shot at a similar load in 2024.

WR Rome Odunze (Apr: 50.5 > May: 67.1)
WR Adonai Mitchell (Apr: 94.8 > May: 117.5)
WR Troy Franklin (Apr: 117.0 > May: 152.1)

Odunze landed in a crowded offense; Franklin was drafted later than expected; Mitchell was some of both. It's weird to see Odunze drop so much, considering Chicago was always one of his most likely landing spots and some of the other relatively high-probability outcomes (Tennessee, Denver) were much worse. It's also interesting that Odunze dropped by a lot more than DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, even adjusting for the larger value gap between picks early on in drafts.

WR Rashee Rice (Apr: 24.6 > May: 72.3)

The NFL usually lets guys play while legal situations are in progress, but Rice's issues are serious enough that we can't dismiss the possibility he lands on the commissioner's exempt list, i.e., paid leave. It's also possible his case wraps up before or during the season, in which case he'll almost certainly be suspended for multiple games within a few weeks after any legal judgment. Rice doesn't seem to be handling any of this especially well, as he's reportedly now being investigated for allegations that he punched a photographer in a nightclub.

RB James Conner (Apr: 78.5 > May: 93.6)

As much as I like third-round pick Trey Benson, we're now getting Conner at a price where he can share some work, miss some games and still be a good draft pick. The 29-year-old has scored 29 touchdowns in 41 games with Arizona, averaging 14.5 carries for 62.8 yards and 2.7 catches for 20.5 yards per appearance. Conner played 61.8 percent of snaps in his 13 active games last year, averaging 92.7 totals yards and scoring nine times despite being subbed out rather often. In other words, Benson can contribute in a meaningful way without preventing Conner from being a strong fantasy starter.

WR Romeo Doubs (Apr: 91.4 > May: 109.9)

The Packers haven't drafted or signed any wide receivers since April, leaving us without a clean and tidy explanation for Doubs dropping 18.5 picks. My guess is that some of the luster from his huge playoff performance has worn off, giving way to well-founded concerns about Green Bay's target distributino. Prior to the January explosion, Doubs would've been my pick for the odd man out between him, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. I'm not so sure now, but I am pretty confident Doubs won't go too far north of last year's 96 targets. He might see the same number improve his efficiency, however, which would put his production right in line with where he's being drafted as a WR4. The current price feels about right.