ADP Analysis: Tracking Best Ball ADP Changes After Free Agency

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

An awful lot has happened since I last looked at 2024 best-ball ADPs back in February. Numerous fantasy-relevant players have switched teams — mostly via free agency but with no shortage of trades — and the 2024 Scouting Combine featured some eye-popping numbers Below I'll look at how ADPs have changed since the week of the Super Bowl, averaging data from Underdog and Drafters (the only two sites that make the information readily available and don't have problematic quirks like including superflex or TE-premium drafts).I hope to add DraftKings data the next time we do this exercise; they haven't yet opened 2024 contests but figure to do so at some point in April or May.

At the bottom of this article, you'll find the full table that compares average ADPs from Underdog and Drafters from Feb. 5 and Apr. 1. You'll notice the second column after the player's name is labeled 'ADP Δ', showing the raw number of spots a player's ADP moved since two months ago. After that, you'll see 'ADP Δ%', reflecting the raw change divided by original ADP. This ADPΔ% column gives a better sense of movement impact. After all, Bijan Robinson moving up 3-4 spots in the first round means a lot more for fantasy than Tyler Lockett moving up by five spots in the 10th round.

Keep in mind that UD and Drafters use different formats, in terms of both the scoring systems and playoff setup. UD is half-PPR and has three rounds of playoffs at the end of the season, which means you don't need a dominant team throughout the year... you just need a good one that blows up Weeks 15-17. Drafters is full PPR and pays out tournaments based on total points Weeks 1-17, which means the goal is building a near-perfect team and "ceiling" is even more important.

Moved Up Since February

Leaps and Bounds

• WR Drake London (60.9 Δ% / ADP 43.20 > ADP 16.90)
•  WR Marquise Brown (45.9 Δ% / ADP 111.35 > ADP 60.25)

No surprise to see these guys leading the way in light of their respective QB upgrades, though I am surprised to see London all the way up to the first half of the second round. As much as I liked him as a prospect, his first two pro seasons weren't that impressive even if we adjust for his highly unfavorable coach and QB situation.

Brown also feels overpriced to me, especially on Drafters where he has a fifth-round ADP (57.5, vs. 63.0 on UD) and the total-points format favors swinging for the fences. While Hollywood might have a few huge games in Kansas City, we can confidently say he's not a superstar at this point, and in the Drafters format I'd rather use my fifth-round pick on someone who might be.

•  RB Josh Jacobs  (45.9 Δ% / ADP 59.20 > ADP 32.05)
•  RB Derrick Henry (44.1 Δ% / ADP 64.90 > ADP 36.30)

Both of these guys were going too late in early drafts, as if there wasn't any chance they'd move on to better offenses upon hitting free agency. I'd argue that Jacobs remains undervalued, with Green Bay being a good landing spot for both rushing efficiency and receiving opportunities. He's got a high-end RB1 ceiling again, though touchdowns are one area for potential disappointment given the presence of 247-pound backup AJ Dillon along with Matt LaFleur's track record of having his QBs account for a huge portion of the scores.

•  TE Kyle Pitts  (42.8 Δ% / ADP 97.35 > ADP 55.65)
•  RB Bijan Robinson (42.0 Δ% / ADP 8.70 > ADP 5.05)

There's a big split between the sites here, with Pitts up to ADP 47.7 on Drafters but only 63.6 on Underdog. I kind of understand it given the need to swing for the fences on Drafters, and if you're convinced that Arthur Smith and poor QB play were the only things holding Atlanta's passing game back, there's more potential profit margin with Pitts at the 3/4 turn than there is with London in the early second round. Robinson moving up also makes sense, though personally I'd rather take Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson or Breece Hall where Bijan is now going.

New Team, New ADP

 RB Zack Moss (36.0 Δ% / ADP 162.65 > ADP 104.15)

 WR Darnell Mooney (34.5 Δ% / ADP 223.30 > ADP 146.15)

 RB Gus Edwards (34.1 Δ% / ADP 179.10 > ADP 118.05)

 WR Curtis Samuel (31.2 Δ% / ADP 170.0 > ADP 117.0)

 TE Jonnu Smith (29.6 Δ% / ADP  237.45> ADP 167.15)

 WR Diontae Johnson (29.0 Δ% / ADP 99.25 > ADP 70.50)

 RB Joe Mixon (25.3 Δ% / ADP 81.85 > ADP 61.15)

 RB Saquon Barkley (22.6 Δ% / ADP 23.05 > ADP 17.85)

 RB Antonio Gibson (15.3 Δ% / ADP 192.45 > ADP 163.10)

These guys all switched teams in the offseason and joined better offenses and/or found easier circumstances to get targets/carries. There are a couple cases where I don't necessarily agree with the ADP movement, though one of those (Barkley) is a guy who should've been drafted earlier before free agency, i.e, his new ADP is perfectly reasonable even if Philadelphia is overhyped as a landing spot (suboptimal for target volume and goal-line work).

The real head-scratcher for me is Johnson, who has gone from the ninth round to the sixth after a trade to Carolina. He had just one big fantasy season in Pittsburgh, and while the Panthers don't have strong target competition overall, they do have Adam Thielen with a skill set that at least somewhat overlaps with Johnson's.

For Mixon, Gibson and Mooney, the ADP movement may be less about the team change and more about the size of their contracts. I'd also say that Gibson and Mooney were excellent values in early drafts, and the deals they signed in March confirm that NFL teams hadn't buried them the same way many fantasy players did.

Same Team, Different Circumstances

 RB Zamir White (24.9 Δ% / ADP 124.65 > ADP 93.65)

 WR Christian Kirk (22.8 Δ% / ADP 67.20 > ADP 51.90)

 WR George Pickens (19.7 Δ% / ADP 63.30 > ADP 50.85)

 TE Dalton Schultz (17.8 Δ% / ADP 127.90 > ADP 105.15)

 QB Will Levis (14.4 Δ% / ADP 195.10 > ADP 167.00)

There's a pretty clear link between offseason trades/signings and each of these players gaining value, except for Schultz. In his case, the early ADP was depressed because people A) were worried he'd sign with a team that has a lesser offense/QB, B) weren't totally sure which QB to stack him with. Now we know the tight end is back in Houston and can be stacked with C.J. Stroud.

Combine Winners

 RB Jaylen Wright (36.0 Δ% / ADP 216.70 > ADP 138.60)

 WR Xavier Worthy (32.6 Δ% / ADP 147.60 > ADP 99.55)

 WR Adonai Mitchell (27.3 Δ% / ADP 130.30 > ADP 94.75)

 WR Ricky Pearsall (24.8 Δ% / ADP 217.40 > ADP 163.55)

 RB Trey Benson (22.9 Δ% / ADP 139.75 > ADP 107.5)

 WR Brian Thomas (19.0 Δ% / 81.00 ADP  > ADP 65.65)

 WR Roman Wilson (17.8 Δ% / 188.65 ADP  > ADP 155.10)

Each of these players ran the 40-yard dash in under 4.4 seconds at the Combine... except for Pearsall, who ran a 4.41 40 and had the third-best vertical jump (42.5 in.) and fastest three-cone drill (6.64 seconds) among wide receivers. I won't get too deep into the details here, seeing as RW has a page for Combine & Pro Day Stats and Mario Puig released his Post-Combine Rookie Top 70. I'll just say that Wright, in particular, seems like a good value even after the massive ADP rise, having crushed the 2024 Combine a month before his 21st birthday. His ADP should move up at least another round or two in the likely event of a Day 2 selection.

Huh?

 WR Davante Adams (22.0 Δ% / ADP 23.60 > ADP 18.40)

 QB Kirk Cousins (17.4 Δ% / ADP 136.50 > ADP 112.75)

I get why Cousins is a huge boon for Pitts/London/Robinson, but I don't really see how the reverse is true when the alternative scenario involved throwing passes to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Perhaps Cousins' early ADP was depressed by uncertainty about who to stack him with; those who paired him with Falcons in late February and early March ended up getting all the since-dissipated value.

Adams, meanwhile, has gone from undervalued to properly valued, at least in my opinion. I'm just not really sure why, considering he's still on the Raiders and their QB upgrade so far has been Gardner Minshew. 

Moved Down Since February

Leaps and Bounds

 QB Justin Fields (116.0 Δ% / ADP 81.45 > ADP 175.90)

 WR Justin Jefferson (75.3 Δ% / ADP 3.65 > ADP 6.40)

 RB Tyjae Spears (60.0 Δ% / ADP 72.15 > ADP 115.45)

 TE Darren Waller (57.6 Δ% / ADP 144.00 > ADP 227.00)

Russell Wilson / no Kirk Cousins / Tony Pollard / mulling retirement. The reasoning for each of these drops is obvious; the question pertains to the extent. For Jefferson and Waller, I like the value we're now getting. For Fields and Spears, I'm agnostic. That said, Fields at least makes for a fun QB3 in Underdog tournaments, given the possibility he'll have replaced Wilson as Pittsburgh's starter come fantasy playoff time.

New Team, New ADP

 RB Austin Ekeler (33.0 Δ% / ADP 71.45 > ADP 95.05)

I don't agree with dropping Ekeler this far. Washington probably won't offer a good offense, but we already knew his days as a workhorse were done, and in terms of snap competition Brian Robinson and Chris Rodriguez is about as good of an outcome as Ekeler could've hoped for. It's definitely amusing that Ekeler is the only guy who changed teams and then saw his ADP plummet... that tells me that fantasy players are probably over-rating a lot of the other guys who were traded or signed with new teams this offseason. 

Same Team, Different Circumstances

 RB Roschon Johnson (44.5 Δ% / 121.10 ADP  > ADP 175.05)

 QB Justin Herbert (43.2 Δ% / ADP 84.00 > ADP 120.25)

  WR DJ Moore (41.9 Δ% / ADP 17.05 > ADP 24.20)

 WR Jordan Addison (30.3 Δ% / ADP 52.10 > ADP 67.90)

 RB Khalil Herbert (28.6 Δ% / 141.30 ADP  > ADP 181.65)

 WR Treylon Burks (26.9 Δ% / ADP 177.55 > ADP 225.30)

 RB Ty Chandler (25.1 Δ% / ADP 112.75 > ADP 153.60)

 WR Jonathan Mingo (24.3 Δ% / ADP 185.15  > ADP 230.15)

 TE T.J. Hockenson (24.1 Δ% / ADP 102.20 > ADP 126.80)

 WR Elijah Moore (23.2 Δ% / ADP 176.40 > ADP 217.30)

As hard as I've beat the drum on Herbert losing value, I can't get down with dropping him by three full rounds. The early ADP already accounted for a coaching change that hinted at more emphasis on running the ball, so now we're dropping him 36 additional spots because he lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (which we also knew was a possibility in February)?

 That's too much, especially with the Chargers potentially bringing in an elite WR via the 2024 NFL Draft (admittedly no sure thing). I also think Herbert can partially make up for passing losses with more rushing stats under OC Greg Roman. The dogs should've been called off once Herbert's ADP had fallen to the ninth/tenth round... now it's all the way down at the 10/11 turn.

Combine Losers

 RB Bucky Irving (28.4 Δ% / ADP 149.90 > ADP 192.50)

 WR Keon Coleman (22.5 Δ% / ADP 111.60  > ADP 136.70)

 RB Audric Estime (18.9 Δ% / ADP 162.60 > ADP 193.35)

The combine always produces more risers than fallers, and that was especially true this year with so many impressive 40 times, particularly from WRs. Coleman was an exception, running 4.61 at 6-3, 213. That's not a death sentence given his size and age (21 in May), though it continues a downward trend on the heels of a modestly disappointing final season at FSU (50-658-11).

Irving being the biggest loser checks out. He's an undersized back (5-9, 192) and probably needed to crack 4.5 in the 40 to be a Day 3 pick. Instead, he ran a 4.55 and also had ugly jump numbers (29.5-inch vertical, 115-inch broad). There are plenty of examples of slow RBs finding success in the pros, and plenty of examples of small RBs doing so... there just aren't many cases of slow AND small RBs having good NFL careers.

Estime improved his 40 time from 4.71 at the Combine to 4.58 at Notre Dame's Pro Day, but he still doesn't seem likely to be taken Day 2. Irving, meanwhile, chose not to run again at Oregon's Pro Day in mid-March, sitting on a combine 40 time that was among the most disappointing for any player at any position.

Huh?

 RB Isiah Pacheco (52.4 Δ% / ADP 34.95 > ADP 53.25)

 RB Nick Chubb (43.1 Δ% / ADP 71.85 > ADP 102.80)

 RB Travis Etienne (42.7 Δ% / 28.70 ADP  > ADP 40.95)

 WR Deebo Samuel (33.7 Δ% / ADP 20.80 > ADP 27.80)

 QB C.J. Stroud (30.4 Δ% / 47.95 ADP  > ADP 62.55)

 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (30.2 Δ% / ADP 61.00 > ADP 79.45)

 RB Kenneth Walker (25.0 Δ% / ADP 52.30 > ADP 65.40)

Pacheco and Walker are the true bafflers here. I don't agree with Chubb and Etienne moving down so much, but at least there are ostensible reasons, with reports suggesting the former may not be ready for Week 1 and the latter may share more snaps/carries this year. In Pacheco's case, you could argue he was being over-drafted before, but now he stands out as a rather obvious value after plummeting by more than a round and a half since February. Walker makes me more nervous, but he's also cheaper and hasn't experienced any tangible reason for value loss this offseason.

In Samuel's case, I'm not sure if he's falling because of trade rumors or because he was being over-drafted before. I've noted in previous articles that he and Brandon Aiyuk both were being drafted too early, as if target share projections for both of them assumed the other guy would either be on a new team or missing a lot of games due to injuries. 

Stroud and Smith-Njigba were simply coming off the board too early in February drafts. In JSN's case, there was some hope of Tyler Lockett being traded/released, which since has been dashed by Lockett renegotiating his contract and trading some salary for incentives. I don't like the second-year wideout at either price, while Stroud seems like a perfectly fine pick now that the early steam has cooled.

There does seem to be a general trend of QBs and RBs moving down and WRs moving up since February, which helps explain ADP losses for guys like Pacheco, Walker, Stroud, Alvin Kamara, James Cook, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott (see below).

The Table