ADP Analysis: Tracking Best Ball ADP Movement from May through June

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

With NFL offseason programs in the books, it's time to compare recent ADP data (June 17) to numbers from a month earlier, seeing what changed during OTAs and minicamps. Data comes from Underdog and Drafters, while DraftKings is omitted because they opened contests in May and had some wonky stuff in the early ADP results (like Drake London going in the third round).

DK's numbers have since converged toward the other sites, with that movement accounting for larger ADP shifts (even in the three-site averages) than anything related to transactions, injuries or reports from spring practices. Results from DraftKings will be in the next iteration of this article in mid-to-late July, but right now we get a better picture of genuine market movement between May and June if we use a two-site average from Underdog and Drafters.

There haven't been many significant transactions or injuries since the last iteration of this article, which means a lot of the ADP movement we see below is based on rumors, contract holdouts or beat-writer reports from spring practices. We'll also see noteworthy ADP movements that have no clear explanation, in which case drafters may be correcting prior inefficiencies (real or perceived). You'll also notice a general trend of WRs moving up and players at all the other positions moving down.

ADP Risers

• WRs Nico Collins (ADP 21.7 > ADP 18.5) & Tank Dell (41.6 > 34.5)

Stefon Diggs, meanwhile, has dropped from ADP 24.8 in mid-May to 30.7 in mid-June. That's more reasonable, though certainly rich for my blood. I also don't like Dell as a third-round pick, worrying about him and Diggs not only cutting each other's target rates but also impacting each other's routes. Collins seems more insulated, with his size and downfield/perimeter prowess making him an obvious choice to stay on the field in two-wide formations.

It's tempting to assume the Texans will rank among the league leaders in 11 personnel now that they have an incredible WR trio... it's just not necessarily true. They have good depth at TE and still carry a fullback, and they had a lot of success with a fullback on the field last year (as detailed back in April in my breakdown of the Diggs trade). There's a real chance one of these guys only runs 25 routes per game, and it won't be Collins. I'd argue Dell is at the most risk there, but I understand why he's trending up given that he made it back for spring practices after the season-ending injury and doesn't have Diggs' concern about age-related physical decline.

• WR Jaylen Waddle (27.2 > 20.0)

I thought Waddle was a bit underpriced before, but mostly this seems like an overreaction to the contract extension he signed at the end of May. It's not like there was concern about Waddle holding out and missing games with two years remaining on his rookie contract, nor should we need to see a big dollar figure to be reminded that he's a great player. 

That said, the only player I definitely prefer with a later ADP is Saquon Barkley (20.8). I don't see much difference between the guys going mid-to-late Round 2 and the ones commonly drafted in late Round 3 or early Round 4, i.e., a seven-spot ADP move in this range doesn't mean nearly as much as it would in other years (at least in my opinion).

• WR DeVonta Smith (32.0 > 25.8)

Now I wonder if Waddle's ADP rise is partially due to increased optimism in general about the "elite No. 2 receivers"  (a.k.a. Smith, Waddle and Tee Higgins), all of whom were Round 2/3 picks last year and then disappointed to varying extents. Smith also signed an extension this offseason, but that was back in April and shouldn't be relevant to the much more recent ADP shift. 

It'll be interesting to see how much Higgins (ADP 41.95) rises now that he's signed his franchise tag and there's no concern about a holdout. He's the steal of the trio at the moment, while Smith and Waddle essentially have climbed back to where they were drafted last summer. Higgins is the least talented of the three, but Cincinnati's offense figures to attempt more passes than Miami's or Philadelphia's. 

• WR Cooper Kupp (33.4 > 28.4)

Kupp was possibly my favorite ADP value in the early-ish rounds throughout winter and most of spring, typically going late in the third or even the fourth. A five-spot upward move in a range full of players with similar projections doesn't really change my enthusiasm, as Kupp still offers the highest ceiling of them all. The target split may well shift back toward him and a bit away from Puka Nacua, plus there's a scenario in which both guys average more than eight looks per game in a highly concentrated Rams offense. Kupp's recent ADP movement likely is related to June reports suggesting his hamstring injury was more of a problem than he let on after returning to action last season (he also mentioned that was back at full strength this spring). Or maybe it's just because he's a WR...

• RB Tyjae Spears (121.7 > 109.2)

There isn't a single non-WR in the top-100 picks that moved up by double-digit ADP spots. Spears is the first player to get that honor, and even he doesn't quite make it to the top 100. While there increasingly seems to be some optimism about the Titans offense, it's hard to identify any specific rumor or report that led to Spears rising over the past month. His new ADP comes at Tony Pollard's expense, with the former Cowboys dropping nearly a round from 92.8 to 102.3. 

I'd rather have Pollard when the prices are that close, considering Spears' solid rookie season was entirely based on passing-down snaps, i.e., the rushing numbers don't mean much. I guess you could argue Spears is more of an unknown and thus has a higher theoretical ceiling, but mostly it seems like he's smaller and slower (without definitely being more agile and/or more skilled as a pass catcher). That said, Spears looked good with what he got last year, and it's not like $10.5 million guaranteed will ensure Pollard of a large workload if he looks as mediocre as he was last season.

• RB Braelon Allen (216.0 > 180.6)

Reports from Jets OTAs and minicamp were favorable for Allen and fellow rookie Isaiah Davis, suggesting both seemed to already be ahead of 2023 fifth-round pick Israel Abanikanda. The strongest praise came from The Athletic's Zack Rosenblatt, who called Allen "a clear frontrunner to be the No. 2 running back." That's good news and all; just remember that we're talking about running backs in practices without tackling. It'll be much more noteworthy if Allen is still making big plays and catching passes regularly come August practices.

Others

WR DK Metcalf (33.1 > 27.8)

WR Zay Flowers (38.6 > 33.9)

WR George Pickens (47.7 > 41.1)

WR Amari Cooper (50.1 > 41.4)

WR Christian Kirk (50.5 > 41.4)

WR Terry McLaurin (55.6 > 45.9)

WR Marquise Brown (61.8 > 48.7)

WR Chris Godwin (71.8 > 57.9)

WR DeAndre Hopkins (81.4 > 66.3)

WR Christian Watson (83.5 > 72.9)

WR Jameson Williams (96.7 > 81.5)

WR Courtland Sutton (107.5 > 89.6)

WR Rashid Shaheed (119.9 > 104.9)

WR Joshua Palmer (120.8 > 105.1)

WR Dontayvion Wicks (143.2 > 118.7)

RB Blake Corum (130.4 > 120.3)

RB Kendre Miller (150.9 > 134.1)

RB Jaleel McLaughlin (181.8 > 159.8)

WR Zay Jones (216.0 > 190.9)

From a personal standpoint, it's unfortunate to see how generalized lust for wide receivers has erased a lot of the early value I liked at the position. I mostly agree with the changes, though there's some stuff that feels overblown, like Kirk going ahead of teammate Travis Etienne (ADP 45.5). Metcalf, Cooper, McLaurin and Godwin all seemed considerably undervalued a month ago, so they're still solid picks at ADP after moving up by a good bit. I also won't argue with Pickens, who may be capable of huge numbers even in a run-heavy offense. 

Watson and Williams don't inspire as much confidence, but at least their ADP movement was accompanied by encouraging spring reports, rather than just being a product of general WR enthusiasm. The Packers reportedly believe they can help Watson move past his repeated hamstring injuries, and Dan Campbell singled out Williams as a star of spring practices.

ADP Fallers

• RB Kyren Williams (20.95 > 31.10)

Williams stands out even amongst a general trend of WRs rising and everyone else falling. He and Josh Jacobs are the only guys from the Top 50 in May that dropped by double-digit spots the past month. Anxiety is understandable in both cases, and apparently it's more contagious than I thought. Williams might be the most divisive player right now, as seen in the first edition of RotoWire's Roundtable Top 150.

• RB Josh Jacobs (36.3 > 53.0)

Jacobs is a good player with a history of handling large workloads, and he's moving from a lousy offensive setup to an excellent one. Is he an elite talent? No. Will he play 80 percent of snaps under Matt LaFleur's offense? No. Will either of those things stop him from putting up big numbers? Also no. The extent of the drop here seems outrageous, even given the overall trend of RBs falling and reports of Jacobs dealing with a minor hamstring injury this spring (he participated in June minicamp last week, FWIW).

• QB C.J. Stroud (51.4 > 64.1)

Stroud rose by a round between April and May but now is right back at his old ADP in Round 6. Your guess/explanation is as good as mine. It seems even stranger given that Collins and Dell both moved up, and with their combined ADP gain being greater than Diggs' fall. Whatever's going on, this seems like the right place for Stroud to be drafted.

• RB Nick Chubb (116.2 > 143.6)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (120.1 > 150.6)

Injury updates have mostly been non-updates so far, using phrases like "no timeline to return." Both players suffered multi-ligament injuries, and I think in Hockenson's case in particular people were way too optimistic about his recovery earlier this offseason. Chubb at least got injured early in the season, though he may still end up missing Week 1 of 2024 (or even starting off on the PUP list). The cliff-dive for Hockenson at least makes him draftable again; he was one of the most overvalued players from February through May.

• TE Juwan Johnson (170.1 > 196.2)

Johnson was the only fantasy-relevant player to suffer a spring injury that sounds likely to impact his Week 1 availability. He had surgery on his foot in mid-June and is expected to miss most or all of training camp. Early reports suggest he has at least some chance to be back by Week 1.

Others

RB De'Von Achane (23.15 > 26.9)

RB Saquon Barkley (16.8 > 20.8)

WR Stefon Diggs (24.75 > 30.65)

WR Michael Pittman (28.5 > 31.9)

TE Sam LaPorta (29.0 > 34.8)

QB Josh Allen (33.2 > 38.7)

RB James Cook (53.6 > 60.8)

WR Xavier Worthy (57.0 > 61.7)

QB Joe Burrow (79.3 > 91.3)

QB Caleb Williams (97.0 > 111.7)

WR Michael Wilson (154.9 > 169.5)

WR Troy Franklin (152.1 > 172.1)

TE Ben Sinnott (161.0 > 177.8)

 RB Keaton Mitchell (192.0 > 216.2)

A lot of these guys are dropping in part to accommodate rising WRs, and in some cases there's probably also an impact from discussion on popular twitter accounts and podcasts (which I'm not privy to). Barkley and Burrow stand out as values to me, being two of the better real-life players at their respective positions and also surrounded with plenty of talent. Barkley may be more of a floor play than a ceiling play in the Eagles offense, but the non-injury floor is pretty darn high.

The Chart