ADP Battles: Collins vs. Aiyuk vs. Waddle

Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.

For those looking for a wide receiver after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk and Jaylen Waddle.

Nico Collins, WR, Texans

Upside

Collins is an excellent fit for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's offense. The receiver gets open quickly and is excellent at transitioning into a runner for big yardage after the catch. Collins needed just 109 targets to reach 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. Although not consistent weekly, the fourth-year veteran posted at least 146 yards and one score on four occasions. Even with Stefon Diggs on the team, Collins is unlikely to lose the role he excelled in and is a part of the Texans' long-term plans. On a team that doesn't always throw a lot of passes, Collins should still see close to 120 targets. That should give him a chance to match the monster season he had last year.

Downside

Durability has been an issue in each of the three years Collins has been in the league. The receiver missed three games in both 2021 and 2023 while missing seven games in 2022. If investing a high pick on Collins, three missed games could be a real issue. Aside from durability, the Texans run a lot of plays with two receivers on the field. If the team decides to have some type of rotation where Collins, Diggs and Tank Dell share snaps, that could put a cap on Collins' ceiling. On a per-snap basis, the wideout should play at a high level, but the downside due to durability and snaps needs to be considered before spending a high pick.

The Bottom Line

If Collins can stay healthy, a 1,400-yard season is in his range of outcomes. Still, we can't ignore three years of durability issues. It's fine if you're drafting Collins for his upside. However, he presents a substantial risk if consistency is what you're after.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers

Upside

Aiyuk only needed 105 targets to produce 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns in 2023. Very few receivers in the league get open as quickly as Aiyuk. It also doesn't hurt to have Kyle Shanahan getting his playmakers quickly into space. The chemistry between Brock Purdy and Aiyuk may continue to improve with another season of playing together. However, the likelihood of Aiyuk surpassing 120 targets is small, so the upside should be a repeat of last season.

Downside

Aiyuk is not a consistent fantasy player. The downside has more to do with weekly volatility than season-long numbers. Last year, there were five games in which the receiver caught three or fewer passes. The main reason for the lack of predictable targets is that the 49ers have numerous weapons in the passing game. As a result, none of the receivers get fed each week. Also, when San Francisco has a lead, they can run the ball and abandon the passing attack. If these factors remain, Aiyuk could have five or more games in which he posts single-digit PPR points. 

The Bottom Line

For those who plan on having a solid number of high-floor players on their roster, having the volatility of Aiyuk is complimentary. Conversely, fantasy managers taking chances on risky players in drafts may prefer a more stable weekly option than Aiyuk to anchor weekly lineups.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins

Upside

Waddle showed the damage he's capable of causing in 2022. Despite seeing just 117 targets, the speedster turned 75 catches into 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns. Last year, it appeared Waddle may have been playing at less than full health despite missing only one game. If that's the case, that explains why the veteran was held to 1,014 yards on 104 targets. Mike McDaniel is excellent at deploying his speedy players and getting them into open space to run after the catch. Look for Waddle to return to the type of usage and production we saw in 2022. With the potential for extreme yardage after the catch, Waddle is capable of another 1,300-yard season. 

Downside

As long as Tyreek Hill is on the team, Waddle will never see elite target numbers. Since arriving in Miami, Hill has been targeted at least 170 times each season. Also, in each of the last two years, defenses have improved how they defend Miami as the season moves along. If coach McDaniel doesn't have a new wrinkle or two, the passing game could sputter. When Tua Tagovailoa is under pressure and his receivers are getting jammed near the line, the quarterback can have significant struggles. In this scenario, Waddle could be limited to the 1,000-yard range.

The Bottom Line

Waddle is a star who happens to line up next to a bigger star. That will keep the wideout's targets limited. Still, Waddle has proven to be a playmaker. He should not be penalized for being nicked up last year. Unlike 2023, when Waddle was often a top-20 pick in drafts, this year's draft cost may prove a slight bargain.

The Final Word

Each receiver in this group has a likely cap on targets. Since that makes it an even playing field, Waddle gets the edge. Tyreek Hill takes a lot of attention away from him, which creates space to create big yardage. Miami may also see regression on defense, which may force them to pass more than they want, meaning Waddle could be in line for a career year. Collins should be first on this list, but the missed time in each of his three years is too big a trend to ignore. That said, Collins has the most upside and should be drafted by those willing to take on the risk. Aiyuk comes third in this group due to inconsistency.