This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a tight end after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Jake Ferguson, George Kittle and David Njoku.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys
Upside
The Cowboys came out of the Week 6 bye a pass-heavy team. The main reason seemed to be that the team lacked a sustaining rushing attack. After letting Tony Pollard and only adding Ezekiel Elliott the run game may be worse in 2024. As a result, Ferguson will be able to build on his strong second half of 2023. In the last 11 games, the tight end averaged over seven targets per game. Ferguson also posted at least 69 yards in five of those contests. It is possible, if not probable, the former Wisconsin Badger is the No. 2 option in the Dallas passing attack. The upside case has Ferguson flirting with 900 yards and eight touchdowns.
Downside
If third-year receiver Jalen Tolbert makes a big leap and Brandin
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a tight end after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Jake Ferguson, George Kittle and David Njoku.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys
Upside
The Cowboys came out of the Week 6 bye a pass-heavy team. The main reason seemed to be that the team lacked a sustaining rushing attack. After letting Tony Pollard and only adding Ezekiel Elliott the run game may be worse in 2024. As a result, Ferguson will be able to build on his strong second half of 2023. In the last 11 games, the tight end averaged over seven targets per game. Ferguson also posted at least 69 yards in five of those contests. It is possible, if not probable, the former Wisconsin Badger is the No. 2 option in the Dallas passing attack. The upside case has Ferguson flirting with 900 yards and eight touchdowns.
Downside
If third-year receiver Jalen Tolbert makes a big leap and Brandin Cooks improves in his second year in the offense, Ferguson may be de-emphasized. If Dak Prescott has three reliable options aside from CeeDee Lamb, the tight end could see his targets fall from the 102 he put up last year to the 80-90 range. Should that happen, Ferguson could top out at 650-700 yards and four-to-seven touchdowns. The overall numbers would still be good but would represent a drop-off from last year's production.
The Bottom Line
It appears Ferguson is an emerging player. Prescott has always made it a point to lean heavily on his tight ends. With the third-year player excellent at both attacking the seams and finding space in the red zone, he is an optimal target in a league that played zone defense 73 percent of the time in 2023. Ferguson should, at the very least, return fair value at ADP, but there is real upside beyond that.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers
Upside
Kittle's upside is based on season-long numbers. Typically, the weekly ride is bumpy. Inconsistency is mostly due to the 49ers having four elite weapons. As a result, the team never has to lean on any one player, including Kittle. The tight end has three seasons with 1,000+ yards. Kittle is one of a very small number of players at his position capable of that upside. Over the past three years, the former Iowa Hawkeye has averaged 90 targets. Kittle is a player with great run-after-the-catch skills along with the ability to get open deep. In an upside scenario, the superstar posts 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Downside
Assuming reasonable health, the worst season we would likely see from Kittle is 750 yards. Otherwise, Looking back to last year, the veteran had four games with fewer than 20 yards. In addition, the pass-catcher recorded three or fewer catches on 10 occasions. Without seeing the high-target volume a few of the top tight ends see, Kittle must rely on elite efficiency. If that efficiency falls a bit, Kittle fails to reach 800 yards.
The Bottom Line
Kittle has fallen outside the top seven tight ends in typical drafts. This is a draft cost that is lower than it's been in the past. At that price, the risk that comes with a player who will have weekly ups and downs is minimized. Kittle's floor and ceiling scoring combination makes him well worth drafting. Just remember to not get cute when setting weekly lineups. Kittle will have bad games, but we'll never know when they're coming. If you draft the tight end, he should be a weekly autostart.
David Njoku, TE, Browns
Upside
If Njoku can recapture the magic he had with Joe Flacco while Deshaun Watson is under center his upside is potentially massive. In the tight end's last four games with Flacco, an average game was seven catches, 90 yards and a touchdown. Over a full season, that level of production would have produced one of the best seasons a tight end ever had. That said, Njoku is going into his eighth season and never recorded more than last year's 882 yards and six touchdowns. It's fair to take the 2023 full-season numbers and call that the upside case.
Downside
When Njoku played with four other quarterbacks not named Joe Flacco last year, his stats were still very good. In those 12 games, the former Miami Hurricane averaged 4.5 receptions, 42 yards and 0.17 TDs. Over a full season, the 12-game sample would have resulted in 76 catches, 714 yards and three touchdowns. That level of production would also have resulted in a career year for the veteran.
During Njoku's career, he had a pair of seasons with roughly 630 yards and four touchdowns. It appears as if the pass-catcher has become a different player in the past couple of years than what he was earlier in his career. Also, the veteran was the No. 2 option in the passing attack in 2023. If Jerry Jeudy can become a much better player after leaving Denver, Njoku could see a slight reduction in targets. Given the tight end he has become, Njoku's floor should be 550 yards and four touchdowns.
The Bottom Line
Although it rarely happens, Njoku appears to have fully broken out after his fifth year in the league. The tight end is very talented, especially when gaining yards after the catch. Regardless, it's difficult to project a season in which Njoku is better than he was in 2023. If drafted after seven or eight tight ends are off the board, the pass-catcher should have a steady weekly floor with occasional spike weeks.
The Final Word
Since Kittle has a trio of 1,000-yard seasons, which included last year, he has to move to the top of this list. Even though we expect the 49ers tight end to be inconsistent each week, the other players in this ADP don't exactly have super-high weekly scoring floors. Kittle is still capable of the type of elite season very few tight ends can match. In what should be another pass-heavy offense in Dallas, Ferguson being the probable No. 2 option makes him an excellent fantasy option. The Dallas tight end likely improves upon his 2023 season. However, it requires a leap of faith to project the type of season Kittle can produce. Coming in third is Njoku. Coming off a career year, the career norms cannot be ignored. There is potential for an 800-yard season, but fewer than 700 yards seems more likely.
