Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 11 Waivers Preview

There was no shortage of large RB workloads Week 10, but there weren't many big fantasy performances amidst a low-scoring week overall. Three backs reached 90% snap share (Chase Brown, Kyren Williams, Chuba Hubbard), with another four in the 80s (Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall) and then six in the 70s (Tyrone Tracy, Bijan Robinson, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Austin Ekeler, De'Von Achane)).

Of those 13 players at 70% snap share or higher, only Brown, Hubbard and Robinson scored 20-plus PPR points. James Conner was the fourth and final RB to top 20 points, with nine players landing between 15.5 and 19.0 and then a dozen falling between 10.2 and 14.2. Mediocrity was the theme of the week, which was also pretty much true at other positions apart from players involved in the Bengals-Ravens shootout Thursday night.

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

Aaron Jones (chest)

Tony Pollard (knee)

Najee Harris (ankle)

Tank Bigsby (ankle)

All four of these guys returned to their respective games after getting injured, although Bigsby played just two snaps in the second half without getting any touches. Jones, Pollard and Harris all took a bunch of carries upon returning and more or less looked like their usual selves. 

Pollard ultimately took a huge hit in snap share (53%) in Tyjae Spears' first game back from a hamstring injury, but it may have largely been a product of Pollard's knee injury and then extreme negative game script. Pollard got 12 of 15 snaps and all six RB opportunities before he hurt his knee in the second quarter. He then got 12 of 16 snaps in the third quarter, again taking all six RB opportunities during that stretch, before Spears took over in the final quarter with 79% snap share and five of the six opportunities. Spears' return obviously isn't good news for Pollard's fantasy value, but it may not be as bad of news as the box score and full-game snap shares suggest.

Missed Week 10

Brian Robinson (hamstring / day-to-day)

Dameon Pierce (groin / week-to-week)

Jamaal Williams (groin / week-to-week)

MarShawn Lloyd (IR - ankle / designated to return Monday)

Isiah Pacheco (fibula / may resume practice this week)

Jonathon Brooks (NFI - knee / should play Week 12)

Kendre Miller (IR - hamstring / eligible Week 14)

Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Pacheco could return to practice this week, although Reid's comments make it sound unlikely that the RB will play against the Bills on Sunday. Lloyd, meanwhile, was designated to return from IR on Monday, potentially setting him up to play Week 11 or 12. It's unclear where he'll fall on the depth chart, with Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks sharing backup work for the Packers of late.

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week.

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

Trending Up 📈

Bijan Robinson - 78% snaps, 68% routes, 24 of 34 RB opps., 144 total yards + 2 TDs

Christian McCaffrey - 89% snaps, 67% routes, 20 of 22 RB opps., 107 total yards

De'Von Achane - 70% snaps, 17 of 25 RB opps., 52 total yards 

Rachaad White - 59% snaps, 55% routes, 17 of 33 RB opps., 70 total yards + TD

Audric Estime - 70% snaps post-halftime, 14 of 19 RB opps. (all carries), 53 total yards

Austin Ekeler - 69% snaps, 16 of 22 RB opps., 51 total yards + 2 TDs

Travis Etienne - 67% snaps, 36% routes, 12 of 14 RB opps.  /  Bigsby injury

Trey Benson - 26% snaps pre-Q4, eight of 25 RB opps., 70 total yards (plus 17 more Q4)

Gus Edwards - 25% snaps, 10 of 30 RB opps, 55 total yards

McCaffrey immediately returned to peak usage, giving up just 11% of snaps and two touches to the other San Francisco running backs (the work was split between Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo, suggesting Mason may not dominate carries if CMC were to run into complications with his calf/Achilles again). We also saw Robinson and Achane take on slightly larger workload shares compared to previous weeks, albeit with backups still significantly involved in their respective teams' offenses.

Trending Down 📉

Javonte Williams - 29% snaps, three of 19 RB opps.

J.K. Dobbins - 67% snaps, 18 of 30 RB opps., 55 total yards

Raheem Mostert - 15% snaps, three of 25 RB opps, 34 total yards

Sean Tucker - zero snaps on offense

Jaleel McLaughlin - 13% snaps, two of 19 RB opps.

Jordan Mason - 5% snaps, one touch

Kimani Vidal - healthy scratch

Mostert got three targets but no carries, while rookie Jaylen Wright took five carries for three yards and played one more snap (9-8). Tucker and McLaughlin are also backup RBs who lost ground Week 10, with the former phased out entirely and the latter getting about half of his normal workload to accommodate a larger role for Audric Estime. 

Dobbins is the guy on this list for whom there's only minimal concern, if any. Gus Edwards took 10 carries for 55 yards in his return from injured reserve, but Dobbins was still the clear lead back with 67% snap share, 15 carries and three targets. I've mentioned numerous times that Dobbins isn't his old self and isn't actually adding much from a real-life standpoint, but he's better than Edwards and clearly not facing any threat from Vidal (who was a healthy scratch this past Sunday). At this point, Dobbins seems more in danger of being replaced during the offseason rather than in-season.

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfield with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

Messy Backfields

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Las Vegas Raiders
3. Denver Broncos

The Week 10 backfield workload shares for Jacksonville look like numbers for last season, with Travis Etienne dominating, but that might just be a product of Tank Bigsby suffering an ankle injury early in the game. Then again, Etienne took 72 percent of snaps pre-halftime the week before in his first game back from a hamstring injury, only to be quasi-benched for the second half (three snaps) after his dropped pass turned into an interception. This seems like a flexible situation not only from week-to-week but drive-to-drive, with D'Ernest Johnson's fluctuating involvement in passing situations adding yet another element of confusion.

The Raiders are coming out of a bye. In Week 9, they gave Zamir White six carries on the first two drives of a loss to Cincinnati, having him split work with Alexander Mattison. After that, they didn't use White at all for the rest of the game. It was nonetheless a bad day for Mattison, who played at least 58% of snaps in each of the first three quarters but then just one of 21 snaps in the fourth (with passing-down specialist Ameer Abdullah taking the other 20). While Mattison still seems to be the lead back, his Week 9 role was discouraging relative to the previous few games. There's also some chance new offensive coordinator Scott Turner sees things differently than recently fired Luke Getsy did.

The Broncos may have finally moved on from a struggling Javonte Williams, who got just 29% of snaps and three touches in a 16-14 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. Audric Estime finished with 45% snap share and 14 of the 19 RB opportunities, despite playing just two of 16 snaps in the first quarter (and five of 15 in the second quarter). Estime took 70% of snaps after halftime, including half of the work on third downs. It's possible that holds for Week 11, but it does seem Estime's increased usage arose from success on his first few carries, rather than being something the Broncos planned ahead of time (Javonte got most of the playing time in the first quarter, per usual). While Estime should be rostered in all leagues, it's far from guaranteed he'll be the lead runner this weekend. Having him on a bench is much preferred to having him in a lineup.

On the Brink

1. Cincinnati Bengals (maybe)

Chase Brown thoroughly dominated Cincinnati's backfield work again in a loss to the Ravens on Thursday, hitting career highs for snaps hare (97%) and targets (11). He didn't play well, however, losing a fumble and averaging just 3.2 YPC and 5.8 YPR. I doubt Brown will lose the starting job or anything like that, but it's possible trade acquisition Khalil Herbert is much more involved now that he'll have time to learn the offense. Herbert got two snaps last Thursday, with one being a pass play and the other a botched hand-off (that he was able to recover).

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Audric Estime - 3%
2. Alexander Mattison - 57%
3. Cam Akers - 14%
4. Jaylen Warren - 51%
5. Tyler Allgeier - 43%
6. Tyjae Spears - 46%
7. Justice Hill - 20%
8. Gus Edwards - 17%

Estime is worth adding in all formats, but he's not necessarily worthy of a huge FAAB bid in medium/shallow leagues where other opportunities are likely to arise in the coming weeks. His increased usage Week 10 seemed to be more of a hot-hand thing than a gameplan thing, and while that doesn't mean it won't hold going forward, it's possible Javonte Williams could take back the lead role as soon as this Sunday. Also note that Estime is a 227-pound bruiser, not a receiving or long-distance threat, and he's playing in an offense that hasn't been quite as heavy on RB targets compared to Sean Payton offenses of years past (though still Top 10 in volume, to be fair).

Bench Stashes

1. Tyler Allgeier - 43%
2. Zach Charbonnet - 43%
3. Blake Corum - 16%
4. Ray Davis - 30%
5. Trey Benson - 18%
6. Braelon Allen - 32%
7. Jaylen Warren - 51%
8. Gus Edwards - 17%
9. Jaylen Wright - 6%
10. Roschon Johnson - 11%
11. Cam Akers - 14%
12. Tyjae Spears - 46%
13. Khalil Herbert - 22%
14. Devin Singletary - 57%
15. MarShawn Lloyd - 5%
16. Kendre Miller - 3% (IR - hamstring)

Drop Candidates

1. Jordan Mason - 72% (shallow leagues)
2. Zack Moss - 40% (IR - neck)
3. Ezekiel Elliott - 18%
4. Antonio Gibson - 18%
5. Jaleel McLaughlin - 16%
6. Ty Chandler - 14%
7. Trey Sermon - 7% 
8. Kimani Vidal - 5%
9. Dalvin Cook - 3%
10. Carson Steele - 3%