Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 18 Waivers Preview

Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 18 Waivers Preview

This article is part of our Backfield Breakdown series.

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

James Conner (knee / day-to-day)

Chase Brown (ankle / day-to-day)

Aaron Jones (quad / day-to-day)

Jerome Ford (ankle / day-to-day)

Kendre Miller (concussion / day-to-day)

Tyjae Spears (head / week-to-week)

Isiah Pacheco (ribs / week-to-week)

Rasheen Ali (hip / week-to-week)

There were eight reported RB injuries Week 17, but none appears especially serious. 

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

James Conner (knee / day-to-day)

Chase Brown (ankle / day-to-day)

Aaron Jones (quad / day-to-day)

Jerome Ford (ankle / day-to-day)

Kendre Miller (concussion / day-to-day)

Tyjae Spears (head / week-to-week)

Isiah Pacheco (ribs / week-to-week)

Rasheen Ali (hip / week-to-week)

There were eight reported RB injuries Week 17, but none appears especially serious. 

    

Missed Week 17

Alvin Kamara (groin / day-to-day)

Trey Benson (ankle / day-to-day)

Justice Hill (head / day-to-day)

Gus Edwards (ankle / week-to-week)

Tyler Badie (IR - back / day-to-day)

MarShawn Lloyd (IR - appendix / eligible since Week 16)

Austin Ekeler (concussion - IR / eligible Week 18)

David Montgomery (MCL / out until playoffs at least)

Kenneth Walker (IR - ankle)

Chuba Hubbard (IR - calf)

          

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week.

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

All stats below are from Week 16 only unless otherwise specified      

Trending Up 📈

Jonathan Taylor - 4th straight game with 22+ carries, 96+ yards  /  5 TDs past 2 weeks

Bucky Irving - 71% snaps, 18 of 22 RB opps pre-halftime, 190 total yards

J.K. Dobbins - 61% snaps + 20 of 28 RB opportunities with the starters (83 yards + TD)

Tyrone Tracy - 66% snaps, 48% routes, 23 of 28 RB opps, 73 total yards

Ameer Abdullah - 62% snaps, 56% routes, 24 of 37 RB opps before final minutes

Khalil Herbert - 100% snaps after Brown's injury, with four carries for 23 yards

Michael Carter - 97% snaps, 14 of 15 RB opps after Conner's exit (81 total yards)

Cam Akers - 53% snaps, 3 of 8 RB opps (for 10 yards) after Jones' injury 

Ty Chandler - 42% snaps, 5 of 8 RB opps (for 7 yards) after Jones' injury 

Pierre Strong - 44% snaps, eight opps for 39 yards after Ford's injury

D'Onta Foreman - 58% snaps, 12 opps for 35 yards after Ford's injury

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 45% snaps, 6 opps for 13 yards after Miller injury

Jamaal Williams - 53% snaps, 3 opps for 24 yards after Miller injury

Kenny McIntosh - 24% snaps, 7 of 25 RB opportunities (7-46-0 rushing)

Hassan Haskins / Julius Chestnut - last men standing if Spears and Pollard both out

     

Trending Down 📉

Joe Mixon - 51% snaps pre-Q4  /  3 straight games with <75 total yards and no TD

Rachaad White - 36% snaps, seven opps for 34 yards (four opps before Q4) 

Rhamondre Stevenson - 57% snaps with starters, but just 3 of 9 RB opps

Javonte Williams - 37% snaps, 2 of 24 RB opportunities

Alexander Mattison - 31% snaps, 13 of 37 RB opps before final minutes

Blake Corum - 6% snaps, 3 of 22 RB opps, -4 yards on three carries

Kimani Vidal - 7% snaps and 3 touches before starters were pulled

    

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

I'll do this part differently than usual for Week 18. Instead of discussing confusing/inconsistent committees like the ones in Las Vegas and Jacksonville, we'll take a quick look at backup RBs who may take on extra playing time Week 18 for non-injury reasons.

  • Bills RB James Cook may play but probably won't stay in for long if he does. Rookie Ray Davis could be the centerpiece for Buffalo's second-string offense, with Ty Johnson presumably also getting some work against a bad Patriots defense. Note that the Bills are slight favorites even though Sean McDermott already said Josh Allen won't play much.
  • Texans RB Dameon Pierce should dominate carries if Joe Mixon is held out or removed early, although Dare Ogunbowale likely would still take a lot of the passing-down snaps.
  • Eagles RBs Kenneth Gainwell, Will Shipley and Tyrion Davis-Price would all be candidates for carries if Saquon Barkley is rested (instead of trying for the rushing record), making it tough to predict the workload split. The third/fourth-stringers might well more work than Gainwell, who doesn't lack for NFL experience.
  • Chiefs RB Carson Steele may be the team's lead runner Week 18, but he's not exactly spry and likely would be running behind some backup linemen against a tough, motivated Denver defense. And Samaje Perine could also play a good amount.
  • The Rams still have seeding to play for (3 vs. 4), but Sean McVay has relished opportunities to rest starters in the past and reduce injury risk, so it's possible Blake Corum replaces Kyren Williams as the lead back (or at least takes more of the work than usual).
  • The Commanders still have seeding to play for (6 vs. 7), but only if the Bears are within striking distance of the Packers. If Green Bay is destroying Chicago, the Commanders could give Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols more work than Brian Robinson in the second half.

      

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

  1. Ameer Abdullah - 35%  
  2. Ray Davis - 18% 
  3. Michael Carter - 3% 
  4. Khalil Herbert - 7%
  5. Dameon Pierce - 2%
  6. Blake Corum - 14% 
  7. Cam Akers - 14%
  8. Raheem Blackshear - 15%
  9. Carson Steele - 2%
  10. Hassan Haskins - 0%
  11. Ty Johnson - 4%
  12. Jaleel McLaughlin - 14% 
  13. Will Shipley - 0% 
  14. Pierre Strong - 0%
  15. Jamaal Williams - 0%
  16. Kenneth Gainwell - 6%
  17. Ty Chandler - 7%
  18. D'Onta Foreman - 0%
  19. Chris Rodriguez - 1%
  20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 0%

Abdullah is perhaps the safest option here, with his role not depending on an unresolved injury or a coach deciding to rest starters. He scored 17-20 PPR points in each of the past three games, with 137 receiving yards and two TDs in that span. There's a bit of flukiness to his production, but the RBs in Vegas have seen targets all year, and Abdullah isn't as bad as the others.

Davis is my favorite target among the RBs likely to benefit from coaches resting starters. He's a good player, and Buffalo's backup O-linemen may not be any worse than New England's starters on the D-line.

       

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
NFL Game Previews: Saturday Matchups
NFL Game Previews: Saturday Matchups
Exploiting the Matchups: Week 18 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers
Exploiting the Matchups: Week 18 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers
Jeff on VSiN: Week 18 NFL Bets
Jeff on VSiN: Week 18 NFL Bets
Beating the Book: NFL Week 18 ATS Picks + Score Predictions
Beating the Book: NFL Week 18 ATS Picks + Score Predictions