This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week wasn't too bad -- I went 10-6 overall and finally won a best bet (Saints), though we were 2-3 in the SuperContest. Of course, losing in the Circa Survivor contest overshadows that ever so slightly.
Week 16 is a tough slate but I especially like the Colts and Ravens.
THURSDAY NIGHT
49ers -3.5 at Titans
The Niners are rolling of late, while the Titans are slipping due to all their skill position injuries. This is a big number on the road, though, especially if A.J. Brown plays. Give me the points.
49ers 26 - 23
CHRISTMAS DAY
Browns +7 at Packers
The Browns will get their quarterbacks back, but the Packers are rolling, and Aaron Rodgers is too good. Lay the wood.
Packers 31 - 20
Colts pick 'em at Cardinals
The Cardinals no-show in Detroit that cost us our Circa Survivor entry has me salty, so maybe I'm biased, but the Colts are the better team, and Jonathan Taylor will smash them. Take the Colts.
Colts 33 - 24
EARLY GAMES
Buccaneers -11 at Panthers
The Panthers offense is terrible, but their defense is good, and the Bucs are down Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette and possibly Mike Evans. Take the points.
Buccaneers 27 - 17
Giants +10 at Eagles
The Giants with Mike Glennon are abominable, and now they're turning it over to Jake Fromm for his first ever start. The Eagles look like a borderline playoff team, but they always seem to struggle
Last week wasn't too bad -- I went 10-6 overall and finally won a best bet (Saints), though we were 2-3 in the SuperContest. Of course, losing in the Circa Survivor contest overshadows that ever so slightly.
Week 16 is a tough slate but I especially like the Colts and Ravens.
THURSDAY NIGHT
49ers -3.5 at Titans
The Niners are rolling of late, while the Titans are slipping due to all their skill position injuries. This is a big number on the road, though, especially if A.J. Brown plays. Give me the points.
49ers 26 - 23
CHRISTMAS DAY
Browns +7 at Packers
The Browns will get their quarterbacks back, but the Packers are rolling, and Aaron Rodgers is too good. Lay the wood.
Packers 31 - 20
Colts pick 'em at Cardinals
The Cardinals no-show in Detroit that cost us our Circa Survivor entry has me salty, so maybe I'm biased, but the Colts are the better team, and Jonathan Taylor will smash them. Take the Colts.
Colts 33 - 24
EARLY GAMES
Buccaneers -11 at Panthers
The Panthers offense is terrible, but their defense is good, and the Bucs are down Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette and possibly Mike Evans. Take the points.
Buccaneers 27 - 17
Giants +10 at Eagles
The Giants with Mike Glennon are abominable, and now they're turning it over to Jake Fromm for his first ever start. The Eagles look like a borderline playoff team, but they always seem to struggle against the Giants and are coming off an extra short week. Take the points.
Eagles 28 - 19
Chargers -9.5 at Texans
The Chargers lost a heartbreaking game to the Chiefs and could take out their frustrations on Houston, but the Texans show up more often than not, and Davis Mills is playing better. Take the points.
Chargers 31 - 23
Lions +6 at Falcons
The Lions knocked me out of Survivor last week, as Jared Goff had a great game, and the Lions defense showed up. Still, I'll sell high here, as the Falcons usually handle the weaker teams.
Falcons 27 - 20
Ravens +2.5 at Bengals
The zig-zag theory makes me want to take the Ravens even though the Bengals killed them the first time, and Cincy has been the better team. Still with Lamar Jackson likely to return, give me the Ravens.
Ravens 27 - 24
Rams -3 at Vikings
The Vikings usually stick around no matter the opponent, and the Rams are traveling off a short week. Take the points.
Rams 24 - 23
Jaguars +2.5 at Jets
This is more or less a coin flip, but if the Jaguars couldn't generate a dead cat bounce off the Urban Meyer firing, they truly are abominable, Lay the wood.
Jets 19 - 16
Bills +2.5 at Patriots
The Patriots attempted only three passes last time these teams played, but I'll lay the wood given the Patriots' advantages everywhere except the passing game.
Patriots 20 - 17
LATE GAMES
Bears +6.5 at Seahawks
I liked the Bears more at seven, but I'll still take the points against a Seattle team off a short week.
Seahawks 24 - 20
Steelers +8.5 at Chiefs
I liked it better when this line was 10, but Mike Tomlin is a good coach, and I expect the Steelers to show up. Take the points.
Chiefs 27 - 20
Broncos +1 at Raiders
With Teddy Bridgewater likely out, the Raiders draw Drew Lock, a turnover machine with only modest upside. Lay the wood.
Raiders 23 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Football Team +10.5 at Cowboys
The Team has heart, but the personnel are below average, while the Cowboys have great personnel and a bad coach. The Cowboys defense should destroy the Team coming off five days' rest, so I suppose I'll hold my nose and lay the wood.
Cowboys 31 - 13
MONDAY NIGHT
Dolphins +3 at Saints
I like both these teams, but I see this as as coin flip game, so give me the points.
Dolphins 20 - 19
Last week, I went into 10-6 ATS to go to 112-109-3 on the year, won my best bet (Saints) to go to 10-5, and went 2-3 in the SuperContest to go 39-35-1. Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.
