This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week wasn't great -- 8-8 ATS, lost my best bet (Ravens) after both of their QBs were scratched and went 2-3 in the SuperContest.
This week, there are a lot of huge lines, but I especially like the Vikings and Steelers.
EARLY GAMES
Raiders +6.5 at Colts
There's some question as to whether Carson Wentz will play after testing positive for covid, but assuming he plays, I'm laying the wood. Jonathan Taylor will run over the Raiders, and unless Darren Waller comes back, the Raiders have trouble stretching the defense. Take the Colts.
Colts 31 - 20
Giants +6 at Bears
The Giants with Mike Glennon/Jake Fromm are hopeless offensively, and the Bears are a weak, but credible team. That said, I'll buy low here and sell the Bears high off their upset win. Take the points.
Bears 17 - 13
Buccaneers -13 at Jets
Tom Brady likes to punish the Jets, but Chris Godwin is out, and Mike Evans could be out another week now that he's added Covid to his hamstring ailment. This is a massive line on the road in what could be a rainy, chilly day. I'll hold my nose and take the points.
Buccaneers 27 - 16
Falcons +14.5 at Bills
This line is bigger than I would have thought, but the Falcons usually handle weak teams and get destroyed by strong ones. I'll lay the wood here.
Bills 33 - 16
Eagles -3.5 at Team
The Team is reeling after its
Last week wasn't great -- 8-8 ATS, lost my best bet (Ravens) after both of their QBs were scratched and went 2-3 in the SuperContest.
This week, there are a lot of huge lines, but I especially like the Vikings and Steelers.
EARLY GAMES
Raiders +6.5 at Colts
There's some question as to whether Carson Wentz will play after testing positive for covid, but assuming he plays, I'm laying the wood. Jonathan Taylor will run over the Raiders, and unless Darren Waller comes back, the Raiders have trouble stretching the defense. Take the Colts.
Colts 31 - 20
Giants +6 at Bears
The Giants with Mike Glennon/Jake Fromm are hopeless offensively, and the Bears are a weak, but credible team. That said, I'll buy low here and sell the Bears high off their upset win. Take the points.
Bears 17 - 13
Buccaneers -13 at Jets
Tom Brady likes to punish the Jets, but Chris Godwin is out, and Mike Evans could be out another week now that he's added Covid to his hamstring ailment. This is a massive line on the road in what could be a rainy, chilly day. I'll hold my nose and take the points.
Buccaneers 27 - 16
Falcons +14.5 at Bills
This line is bigger than I would have thought, but the Falcons usually handle weak teams and get destroyed by strong ones. I'll lay the wood here.
Bills 33 - 16
Eagles -3.5 at Team
The Team is reeling after its blowout loss to the Cowboys, while the Eagles are fighting for one of the last NFC playoff spots. Typically the Team shows up, though, so give me the points.
Eagles 23 - 20
Chiefs -5 at Bengals
This line is too big for the Chiefs on the road, and yet the Bengals never seem to string together more than one or two good games in a row. I'll lay the wood.
Chiefs 31 - 24
Jaguars +15 at Patriots
The Patriots just lost two straight games to tough opponents, and I expect them to bounce back against a soft Jaguars team that can't move the ball. Lay the whole tree.
Patriots 31 - 9
Dolphins +3.5 at Titans
The Titans with A.J. Brown look like a different team, but the Dolphins are so scrappy, I expect them to stick around with their playoff lives on the line. Just keep in mind the Dolphins played Monday night, while the Titans had 10 days off. Still, I'll take the points.
Titans 26 - 23
Rams -3.5 at Ravens
The Ravens pass defense is terrible, but either Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley should be back, and I expect them to show up at home against the Rams. Take the points.
Rams 26 - 23
LATE GAMES
Broncos +5.5 at Chargers
The Chargers are such an inconsistent team, but I'll take them at home off the loss against a Denver team that can't move the ball on offense. Take Los Angeles.
Chargers 27 - 20
Texans +12.5 at 49ers
The Texans have shown up more often than not, but I'll sell high here and take the 49ers who have 10 days off and can run the ball. Lay the wood.
49ers 33 - 20
Cardinals +5.5 at Cowboys
The contrarian move would be to buy low on the Cardinals and sell the Cowboys high, but I'll resist that urge. The Cowboys defense is the best in the NFL right now, and the Cardinals really miss DeAndre Hopkins. Take Dallas.
Cowboys 28 - 20
Panthers +7 at Saints
The Panthers can't move the ball with their sorry quarterbacks, and Taysom Hill at least gives the Saints a chance. I'd feel better if I knew left tackle Terron Armstead were playing, but I'll lay the wood anyway.
Saints 24 - 16
Lions +7 at Seahawks
The Lions always show up, and Jared Goff came off the covid list. Take the points.
Seahawks 24 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Viking +6.5 at Packers
The Vikings show up against everyone, and they beat the Packers the first time around. Take the points.
Packers 27 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Browns -3 at Steelers
The Steelers no-showed last week at Arrowhead, but out of principle I'll take them as three point dogs against the Browns in a nationally televised game.
Steelers 20 - 19
Last week, I went into 8-8 ATS to go to 120-117-3 on the year, won my best bet (Ravens) to go to 10-6, and went 2-3 in the SuperContest to go 41-38-1. Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.
