Beating the Book: Bengals Keep Rolling, Eagles Win at Home + Full NFL Week 9 ATS Picks and Predictions

Welcome to the Week 9 edition of Beating the Book!

First and foremost, I want to issue an apology that this piece is a day late. However, your author is getting married tomorrow (Friday), so it's been a bit of a wild week here in Milwaukee. I hope you'll forgive me. Going forward, we'll be back on the regular schedule.

Coming off of a catastrophic Week 7, we went back to the drawing board and were able to grind out a profitable Week 8. Much-needed, to say the least. While we still had some slip-ups – including completely misjudging the Rams' ability to hang with Dallas – we hit our best bet (Eagles -6.5) and finally came out on the right side of some underdog plays, including Tennessee and Carolina.

We now turn our attention to the Week 9 slate, which may go down as the most difficult of the season, to date. For one, nine of 14 games currently feature a spread of 3.0 points or less, while only two teams (New Orleans and Cleveland) are favored by at least a touchdown.

Of course, these lines are meant to create roughly 50/50 propositions, so in theory each week should be equally difficult. But the recent attrition at quarterback has added an incredible amount of variance to the slate. By my count, 11 teams could be starting a backup quarterback this week, and that's not including the Giants, who will likely get Daniel Jones back from a neck injury. Digging deeper, we could have as many as three Backup QB vs. Backup QB matchups: Tennessee-Pittsburgh, Minnesota-Atlanta and Arizona-Cleveland. Wild stuff all around.

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 9-6-1 ATS; 10-6 SU; best bet won (PHI -6.5)

On the season: 53-65-4 ATS, 70-52 SU; 5-3 best bet

Best calls of Week 8:

• Returning home after a rough, two-week road trip should help the Niners, but even before the Purdy news I liked this spot for the Bengals off of a bye to continue their ascension up the AFC standings. 
• This is essentially a neutral-site game, so I understand why the Jets are up to 3.0-point favorites. I liked it more at 2.5 earlier this week, but we'll side with the Jets' defense to bring home an ugly, burn-the-tapes win.

Worst calls of Week 8:

• Denver remains the league's worst defense, but they've made some strides the last two weeks. Even so, I don't see this is a good spot for Denver. If the Broncos were going to snap the streak, they had their chance in Week 6 when Kansas City managed only 19 points.
• Maybe it's my inner pessimistic Jags fan taking over, but with the bye week on the horizon, I think the schedule finally catches up to the Jaguars here. 

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Thursday Night Football

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

We begin with one of five games currently holding a total south of 40.0 points this week. Such is life in what could be battle of backup quarterbacks. There does seem to be reasonable optimism that Kenny Pickett will be able to play for Pittsburgh, but if not we'll be looking at Mitchell Trubisky vs. Will Levis. 

How do we value Levis after last week's impressive, four-touchdown debut? That's the question that ultimately decides this game. If you think Levis can burn the Steelers deep the same way he did the Falcons' secondary, then Tennessee should have a good chance to pull the road upset. I tend to think some regression will hit the rookie this week, so I'll take the Steelers to get back to what they do best: finding ways to grind out ugly wins.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Titans 17

🇩🇪 Sunday Germany Game 🇩🇪

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.0)

We head to Frankfurt for one of the marquee games of the entire season. The Chiefs come in off of literally their worst game of the Patrick Mahomes era, while the Dolphins got their mojo back against the struggling Patriots last week.

Although this isn't a true road game for Miami, we've already seen the Dolphins come up short twice against the two elite opponents they've faced. A third letdown would seriously call into question whether Mike McDaniel's team is nothing more than a bully against bad teams.

I do think Miami shows up and keeps this game close, but the Chiefs almost never play two bad games in a row. Mahomes is 16-3 SU after a loss in his career.

The pick: Chiefs 30 – 27

Sunday Early Games

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)

I can't believe I'm typing this, but I'm actually somewhat excited to see what Josh Dobbs can do with the Vikings' offense. However, we'll likely see Jaren Hall this week, which throws this game into complete who the hell knows? territory. Hall came on in relief of Kirk Cousins last week and almost immediately lost a sack-fumble. After that, he simply had to game-manage a couple of short drives, so we didn't get much of a read on him.

If there's a team to start an inexperienced, rookie quarterback against, that team may be the Falcons. A week ago, Atlanta was completely embarrassed by Will Levis, who connected with DeAndre Hopkins on three long touchdowns. Mid-game, the Falcons finally pulled the plug on Desmond Ridder, and it'll be Taylor Heinicke getting the start this week.

This is a slightly bigger number than I'd like given Atlanta's propensity for playing down to its competition, but it's hard to imagine the Falcons coming out flat and unprepared against a rookie QB two weeks in a row.

The pick: Falcons 24 – Vikings 17

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens (-6.0)

While true football sickos will be all over Vikings-Falcons and Cardinals-Browns, this is pretty easily the best game in the early window. Seattle dodged what probably should've been a loss last week against the Browns and suddenly sits atop the NFC West. Meanwhile, the Ravens overcame a slow start to outlast Arizona and move to 6-2 – tied with Miami, Jacksonville and Kansas City for the best record in the AFC.

Baltimore is the better team, and has taken over as the best defense in the NFL by EPA, but it's fair to note that the Ravens' only great win came against Detroit two weeks ago. Seattle should be able to hang tough, especially if Kenneth Walker is closer to 100 percent. Over the last 13 seasons, the Seahawks are 19-5 ATS as a dog of 4.0 points or more. On top of that, Baltimore is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 4.0 or more.

Baltimore wins but Seattle covers.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Seahawks 24

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)

After saying goodbye to Josh Dobbs this week, the Cardinals are moving on to… Clayton Tune. Or so we think. For whatever reason, Arizona is leaving the door open for Kyler Murray to potentially make his return, though it's more likely we see Murray next week against Atlanta. 

If it is, indeed, Tune Time, then it's hard not to side with the Browns at home. PJ Walker may not be good enough to beat the better teams in the NFL, but he should be able to take care of business against a Cardinals team that continues to fight hard but is clearly overmatched. More than anything, this is a play in favor of the Browns' defense. It's lost some luster over the last few weeks but continues to generate turnovers and pressure while leading the NFL in opponents' score percentage (23.9%).

The pick: Browns 28 – Cardinals 17

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-3.0)

If Matthew Stafford (thumb) plays, then I'm all over the Rams here. I want to be clear about that right away. But the line would seem to imply that the veteran is in serious danger of sitting out with a UCL sprain on his right hand. If that's the case, then Brett Rypien would be in line to get the start.

The 27-year-old is ultimately a low-upside player, but he made a handful of starts for the Broncos – including two last season – and has, at the very least, proven that he's not a complete disaster. Given how the Packers have looked over the last five games, that might be all the Rams need to take care of business.

Stafford or no Stafford, the Rams are better-coached and have better skill position players than Green Bay, which sold off one of its best defenders in Rasul Douglas at the deadline. Frankly, the Packers shouldn't be giving points to anyone right now – even Brett Rypien.

The pick: Rams 21 - Packers 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5)

This is the first of at least four Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week candidates. The wheels are close to coming off for Tampa Bay, which has now dropped three straight while averaging 12.3 points per game in those losses. The Bucs' running game is (yet again) non-existent, and they've become one of the worst red-zone teams in the NFL.

On the other side, Houston became the first team to lose to the Panthers this season, as Bryce Young out-played C.J. Stroud in a predictably ugly, low-scoring game. Chances are, we get a similar script this week between a pair of struggling offenses. Houston hasn't scored more than 20 points in over a month, so the U40.0 might be the best play here.

These teams are close to dead-even for me, so I'll hold my nose and take the points with the Buccaneers.

The pick: Buccaneers 20 – Texans 17

Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3.5)

Here we are with another big-time stay-away for me. I'm not sure the Patriots deserve to be giving 3.5 points to anyone, but on the other hand no team waved the white flag harder than Washington at the deadline. The offense remains intact, but it's difficult quantify how much losing Montez Sweat and Chase Young will impact this defense – both on the field and in the locker room.

The losses of Sweat and Young should make things easier on Mac Jones, but the Pats' offense has made only marginal strides over the last two weeks. Against Miami in Week 8, New England generated just 218 yards of total offense – the Pats' second-lowest output of the season. With Kendrick Bourne out for the season and DeVante Parker (concussion) potentially out, as well, I'm not expecting much out of the Pats' passing game.

Give me the Patriots to grind out a win at home, but the Commanders – 7-2-2- ATS in their last 11 games as a dog – get the cover.

The pick: Patriots 21 – Commanders 20

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

There were some whispers early in the week that Justin Fields could potentially return for this game, but it's looking increasingly likely that we'll get one final ride with Tyson Bagent. This will be the second straight road game for Chicago, which got blown out in Los Angeles on Sunday night.

The Saints are nearly as erratic as the Chargers, but the offense may be finally turning a corner. Over the last three games, New Orleans has racked up 430, 407 and 511 yards of total offense. The problem is the Saints still found ways to lose two of those games to Houston and Jacksonville. 

New Orleans can't afford to mess around for too long, but the margin for error against the Bagent-led Bears is sizable, so I'm comfortable backing the Saints to cover a touchdown plus the hook.

The pick: Saints 24 – Bears 14

Sunday Afternoon Games

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)

Carolina finally got in the win column last week with an ugly hard-fought win over the Texans. As poor as Carolina's record may be, the Panthers are not a true doormat team. A win this week, and another next week in Chicago, would put the Panthers right back in the mix in the NFC South (somehow not joking). While Bryce Young outplayed C.J. Stroud last week, the Panthers' passing game is still among the least-productive in the NFL. Young has avoided turnovers, but Carolina ranks 25th in passing EPA, 30th in yards per completion and 31st in yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, the Colts are apparently destined to wind up in a shootout on a weekly basis. The good news: The Colts have racked up more than 28 points per game over the last three weeks. The bad news:  they've allowed 37, 38 and 39 points to the Jags, Browns and Saints, respectively, in that span.

The Colts' defense has reached liability status – turnovers by Gardner Minshew have not helped – but I'm not sure we can trust Carolina to exploit it. Thus far, the Panthers have only reached 20 points three times, with a season-high of 27 in a Week 3 loss to Seattle.

Take the Colts and take the O44.0 total.

The pick: Colts 27 – Panthers 23

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

Here we have the battle between the team that threw for negative-nine passing yards last week against the team that fired its coach and GM four days before the game. Buckle up. This is the NFL in 2023. 

It goes without saying that this is probably the true Stay-Away of the Week, but with Daniel Jones expected to return for the Giants, they should be able to throw for positive yardage. The defense has also improved, allowing fewer than 300 total yards in three straight weeks while generating five turnovers in that stretch. However, Darren Waller may be trending toward a multi-week absence, while Saquon Barkley was limited by an ankle injury at Wednesday's practice. If Barkley is limited or, God forbid, can't play, the Giants will be in serious trouble.

Even so, at least the Giants aren't making a mid-week regime change. The Raiders are as dysfunctional as it gets right now, though it's hard to imagine kicking Josh McDaniels to the curb was an unpopular move with the locker room. Las Vegas will also go with Aidan O'Connell at quarterback after a disastrous performance by Jimmy Garoppolo in Detroit on Monday night.

With so many variables on both sides, this is close to an impossible game to get a read on. Do the Raiders rally around Antonio Pierce? Has the life been completely sucked out of this team? Who's to say. Let's go with the Raiders. We'll sprint head-first into the dysfunction. This is their chance to atone for losing The Jeff Saturday Bowl a year ago.

The pick: Raiders 17 – Giants 14

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.0)

This is easily the marquee game in an abbreviated late window this week. Dallas is coming off of a dominant win over the Rams in Week 8, while the Eagles struggled – to some degree – to outlast (and ultimately cover!) against the Commanders. For whatever reason, Washington always seems to play Philly well, though the Eagles did lose two fumbles inside the three-yard-line.

If Philadelphia can get the turnovers under control, I really like this spot. Dallas absolutely has the talent to win, but the Cowboys are yet to prove that they can beat a truly elite opponent. The Chargers, who they only beat by a field goal in Week 7, do not count. 

Give me the Eagles to show up in a big spot and get the cover at home.

The pick: Eagles 28 – Cowboys 24

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.0)

I'm scared of how much I love the Bengals in this spot. We want to be careful not to overreact to last week's win over the 49ers, but that certainly looked like the Bengals' offense we've seen over the last few seasons. Joe Burrow is fully back, Tee Higgins healthy and Ja'Marr Chase is still very much in the Best WR in the NFL conversation. That's a scary combination for the rest of the AFC.

The Bills, meanwhile, are coming off of a win over the Bucs last Thursday, so they do have the rest advantage. However, they've shown some cracks in the foundation of late, and a date with the Bengals in Cincy is not exactly the low-margin-for-error type of game they want to see on the schedule.

Burrow comes through again and officially puts the rest of the AFC on notice. Bengals win and cover at home.

The pick: Bengals 30 – Bills 24

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets (+3.0)

Here we go. Some might say this is not a great Monday Night Football matchup. Respectfully, I  disagree with that. We have the highest-variance team in the NFL against a team that just pulled off one of the most unlikely wins in recent history. 

What we know for sure is the Chargers will make at least one critical mistake to allow the Jets to hang around, and while I have the utmost respect for the New York defense, I'm not sure it can be trusted to hold the Chargers under 20-to-23 points, which will likely be required for the Jets to win. Chances are, the Chargers won't be able to do much on the ground, but they've found ways to get Austin Ekeler more involved as a pass-catcher. Breece Hall getting loose against a shaky LA defense does concern me, but ultimately I can't side with Zach Wilson over Justin Herbert.

We may be walking straight into a death trap, but we're willing to accept that fate: Chargers win. Chargers cover.

The pick: Chargers 26 – Jets 19