Beating the Book: Chiefs handle Jets, Broncos win in Chicago + Full NFL Week 4 ATS Picks

We knew we were walking into a hornet's nest in Week 3, and despite some massive oversights – Jacksonville, Dallas… what are we doing, guys? – we scratched and clawed our way to a .500 week. That included a win on our best bet (Chiefs -13.0), though I don't feel as good about it as I should after switching out of Dolphins -6.0 at the last second in an act of immense cowardice.

As you may know, the Dolphins were able to cover that 6.0-point spread by a mere 44 points. Miami was one of nine favorites to win against the number in Week 3. On the contrary, three of the biggest favorites on the board not only failed to cover but lost outright. Jacksonville had an all-time disaster performance at home against Houston, Dallas trailed the entire game against Arizona and the Ravens gift-wrapped a victory to the Colts in overtime.

As we turn our attention to Week 4, gone are the sampling of double-digit spreads we saw a week ago. As of publication, 11 of 16 games feature a spread of 3.5 points or fewer, while only the 49ers (-14.0 vs. Arizona) sit as a double-digit favorite. 

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 8-8 ATS, 10-6 SU; won best bet

On the season: 22-25-1 ATS, 28-20 SU; 2-1 best bet

Best calls of Week 3

• The Niners also have the highest pass rush grade in the NFL thus far, per PFF, while the Giants' offensive line is off to a rough start. We're not going to overthink this one.
• Perhaps the fear is Kansas City taking its foot off the gas in the second half, but this is an offense that needs to see a few shots go through the net. The Chiefs haven't quite looked like The Chiefs thus far – I have a feeling that will change Sunday afternoon.

Worst calls of Week 3

• This matchup and this number may scream trap game to some, but Dallas is catching the Cardinals at the right time. They simply can't keep getting away with this.
• I'm not picking against Buffalo to win outright on the road against a shaky secondary, but I do like Sam Howell to do enough to keep the Commanders within a score.

Odds this week via the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Thursday Night Football

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+1.5)

We kick off the week at Lambeau Field in what feels like a game that could go a long way toward deciding the NFC North. Both teams come in at 2-1 after Green Bay rallied back from a 17-point fourth quarter deficit to take down the Saints on Sunday. The Packers did so without six of their top 10 players, but the hope is that at least a few of those big names – Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari – could be back for Week 4. Jones, especially, would provide a much-needed boost to a backfield that wasn't able to do much against New Orleans or Atlanta. Still, the Packers' offensive line grades out as the NFL's top unit thus far at PFF.

Meanwhile, Detroit is hoping to get David Montgomery back this week, though the Lions are still dealing with some key injuries on the offensive line. Detroit's defense was the standout unit a week ago, holding Atlanta under 3.0 yards per play and stifling the Bijan Robinson-Tyler Allgeier backfield combo. If that defense shows up again, the Lions should win, but this one feels like it's destined to be a nail-biter.

Green Bay has played back-to-back one-point games and is getting 1.5 points at Lambeau, so I'll default to the home team here.

The pick: Packers 23 – Lions 21

💂Sunday London Game💂

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.0)

We're not even four weeks into the season and the Jaguars are already causing me extreme emotional distress. Last week's top-down disaster against Houston was considered by some to be the worst loss in franchise history. That may be a little extreme, but the Jags haven't been around that long and certainly haven't played too many meaningful seasons. Frankly, any game in which you allow a FULLBACK to return a kickoff for a touchdown is going to be in that conversation.

Anyway, if there's anything remotely positive to take away from Sunday, it's that the underlying numbers weren't quite as ghastly as the final score. The Jags out-gained Houston and notched 22 first downs, but Jacksonville once again struggled on third downs (5-13). On the year, the Jags are now 12-of-43 converting third or fourth downs. Jacksonville has also been plagued by drops and near-misses in the passing game. Jamal Agnew also coughed up an extremely costly fumble, while Brandon McManus missed a kick and had another one blocked. 

I'm extremely hesitant to put any faith in the Jaguars right now, especially against an Atlanta team that can control the time of possession on the ground, but Jacksonville should have a slight advantage playing in familiar territory overseas. At some point, some of the "bad luck" plays on offense will reverse themselves, but this game will come down to whether or not the Jags' defense can keep Robinson and Allgeier under wraps in the same way Detroit did a week ago. Jacksonville will be without its starting nose tackle, which… is not a great start.

Nonetheless, we'll roll with the Jags to win a close game outright, but Atlanta covers.

The pick: Jaguars 27 – Falcons 26

Sunday Early Games

Alright, I needed to get those Jaguars thoughts off my chest. Thank you for indulging me. Now we can roll through these Sunday games at a faster pace.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.0)

Even with a bevy of toss-up games on the slate, this is far and away the game of the week. Miami comes in about as hot as a team has ever been after hanging 70 on the Broncos last week. But the Bills had an impressive showing of their own, sacking Sam Howell nine times and forcing five Washington turnovers. Buffalo's letdown at the Jets in Week 1 continues to look like more and more of an aberration.

It feels borderline-insane to pick against the Dolphins in this spot, especially with Jaylen Waddle emerging from concussion protocol, but the gap between the Broncos' defense and the Bills' is immense. I'll trust Buffalo's defense to put pressure on Tua and win a shootout at home.

The pick: Bills 34 – Dolphins 30

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

If last week felt like a must-win for the Vikings, then I'm not sure what we should call this game. The Vikings are a cornered animal – there's no two ways about it. If Minnesota falls to 0-4, the season is not technically over, but it's basically over, and the Kirk Cousins trade narrative will really heat up.

Offensively, the Vikings are the vastly more reliable unit, but the Panthers' defense has been impressive, and if it's Andy Dalton under center for one more week, I feel better about the offense's floor. If it's Bryce Young, who practiced Wednesday, I'd lean toward Minnesota.

We'll roll with Minnesota to eek out an extremely 2022 Vikings win. I can assure you it will be anything but comfortable.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Panthers 24

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (+3.0)

I know I just said Dolphins-Bills is the game of the week, but this is a close second for completely different reasons. The Worst Team in the League title belt is on the line. Both of these franchises feel like they're teetering on the edge of complete disaster. Denver blew games to Las Vegas and Washington before losing by FIFTY to the Dolphins, while the Bears haven't won a game outright since Week 7 of last season .

The vibes in Denver are very, very bad, but said vibes are somehow significantly worse in Chicago. This game should definitively tell us just how poor the Broncos' defense is – I don't feel good about it whatsoever, but I think Denver can do just enough offensively to win and narrowly cover.

The pick: Broncos 24 – Bears 20

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

As always, these divisional matchups are extremely tough – especially in the AFC North. We're getting a decent number here – and praying that it stays under the key number of 3.0 – which pushes me in favor of the Browns, who may have the best defense in football. We can quibble about the offenses Cleveland has faced thus far, but allowing just one redzone possession (it came after a fumble, no less) through 12 quarters is an impressive feat.

Defending Lamar Jackson is a unique challenge for any defense, but I'll side with Cleveland to come out on the right side of a predictably low-scoring affair.

The pick: Browns 17 – Ravens 13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (+3.0)

This is a surprisingly difficult game to pick. The look-ahead line before Week 3 was Steelers -4.5, but that number is down to 3.0 as the Texans continue to look like a much more formidable offense than expected. Despite sitting at 1-2, Houston has moved the ball through the air effectively in all three games – most notably, of course, in its win over the Jags on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Steelers' offense looked marginally better against a bad Raiders defense on Sunday night, but it's the Pittsburgh defense that we're trusting to step up here. Houston can't run the ball on anyone, and I don't like the Texans' chances to keep C.J. Stroud clean against T.J. Watt and Co.

Steelers go on the road and win an ugly game to somehow move to 3-1.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Texans 14

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

We're labeling this game the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. I have no idea what's going to happen here, beginning with the Colts' QB situation. Anthony Richardson practiced Wednesday and would appear to be on track to reclaim his starting job from Gardner Minshew, who piloted the Colts to a road win at Baltimore in Week 3. While Richardson is obviously the future, there's a case to be made that Minshew gives the Colts a higher floor right now. 

With that said, the Rams' defense is one of the least-talented units in the NFL, and we saw some of the offense's limitations as Monday night's loss to the Bengals played out. Cincinnati was able to pressure Matthew Stafford at will, and the Rams converted just one first down while struggling to finish off drives in the red zone. 

The Colts are riding momentum and should be able to move the ball, but if it's Richardson under center I'm not convinced they'll fully be able to take advantage of a bad Rams secondary. 

The pick: Colts 21 – Rams 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.0)

With this number sitting at 3.0, this is another stay-away for those who don't have to pick every game against the spread. But lord knows we don't fall into that category, so here goes nothing. Chances are, we're looking at a Baker Mayfield-Jameis Winston showdown for the ages. Neither quarterback inspires much trust, and both defenses should be able to limit the run game. They each rank in the bottom 10 in run blocking, according to PFF. The Saints do get Alvin Kamara back from suspension, however.

Neither coaching staff inspires much trust, either. But I lean toward the Buccaneers to keep this to a field goal or less. Good note from the folks at The Action Network: Dennis Allen is just 1-6 ATS in divisional matchups, and he's 2-7 ATS when favored by 4.0 points or fewer.

In what feels like a complete toss-up, and a game in which both quarterbacks throw multiple picks, we'll follow the trend and take the Bucs to keep this game within a field goal. Saints win the latest Mike Evans-Marshon Lattimore Fight Night but the Bucs cover.

The pick: Saints 19 – Buccaneers 17

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.0)

The Eagles' offense is still working its way into form, but the running game was beyond dominant against the Bucs on Monday night. D'Andre Swift had one of the best games of his career, but the Philly O-Line deserves much of the credit.

Ultimately, Philly stalled out on downs in the red zone, failed to convert another score from the Tampa Bay 2-yard-line, threw two picks, had multiple A.J. Brown drops and still cruised to a two-touchdown victory. The Commanders, meanwhile, came crashing back down to earth after a somewhat-flukey 2-0 start.

I know Washington won outright in a similar spot last season, but the Eagles are picking up steam. We'll take Philly to cover a dicey number at home.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Commanders 17

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)

Hand up: I picked against the Bengals last week, partially because I did not expect Joe Burrow to play, let alone start and make it through the game unscathed. Ultimately, the Bengals were able to nickel and dime the Rams' defense to death, though Cincy caught some luck with the Rams face-planting in the red zone multiple times in the first half.

Tennessee is coming off of a horrific showing in Cleveland, though the Browns' defense is a brutal test for any team right now. If the Titans can get Derrick Henry going – he got off to an eerily similar slow start last season before breaking out in Week 4 – they'll be able to hang around. But if Joe Burrow is able to make it through another week without aggravating that calf injury, it's hard to pick against the Bengals here.

The pick: Bengals 23 – Titans 17

Sunday Afternoon Games

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

Anyone betting the Chargers should have to sign a waiver before each game. The predictability and consistency with which this team plays flat-out insane football every week is astonishing. LA was extremely lucky to escape Minnesota with a win last week but will now be without Mike Williams (torn ACL) for the balance of the season. The (relatively) good news is the Chargers have a pair of intriguing receivers in Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston to fill the void, but losing Williams is a crushing blow for a team that feels like it will need to lean entirely on its offense every week.

The Raiders are struggling after back-to-back losses to Buffalo and Pittsburgh – the running game, in particular, has been concerningly dormant. The Chargers could be the defense that helps buck that trend, but I still can't quite there when it comes to trusting the Raiders in the trenches on either side of the ball.

IF Austin Ekeler plays, give me the Chargers to win and cover. If he's out again, I'd lean toward Vegas.

The pick: Chargers 30 – Raiders 24

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-7.0)

I've gone back and forth on this game a few times already and still haven't settled on how to evaluate the Cowboys based on last week's punking at the hands of Arizona. Like Jags-Texans, the underlying stats imply it should've been closer. Nonetheless, it's concerning that Dallas no-showed against a team that already caught two opponents off-guard in Weeks 1 and 2.

Coming back home should play to the Cowboys' favor, but going up against the Patriots' defense always presents some unique challenges – particularly with the status of multiple starting OLinemen still up in the air. I'll lean on Dallas' offense to put up enough points to outscore the Pats' sluggish attack, but I don't feel great about this one.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Patriots 17

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.0)

Full disclosure, I thought last week would be the comeuppance game for the Cardinals after hanging tough with Washington and New York through two weeks. It turned out to be anything but that, as Arizona got off to another fast start in a wire-to-wire win over the Cowboys.

The 49ers are rolling at a level above any other team right now, however, and will be fully prepared for a Cardinals roster that's clearly more talented and motivated than most (myself included) expected. A 14.0-point spread is usually too rich for me, but I'm going to stick to my guns and re-declare that THIS is the week the Cardinals run into a buzzsaw. San Francisco has won 11 of its last 16 home games by at least 15 points.

Arizona puts up a valiant fight but the Niners win and cover at home.

The pick: 49ers 31 – Cardinals 14

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (+9.5)

I know this is a popular narrative, but with the number sitting under 10.0, this is quite simply a vote of no-confidence in Zach Wilson. The Jets are teetering on the edge of a mutiny, and while the defense can keep them in it, Kansas City is close to a worst-case-scenario opponent in this situation.

Even with Kansas City's offense looking shaky against not-Bears teams, I'm not going to overthink this one.

The pick: Chiefs 26 – Jets 13

Monday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-1.5)

This is a tricky game with Seattle going cross-country and the status of Saquon Barkley (ankle) still up in the air. If Barkley can't make it back, it will be difficult to trust the Giants' offense to do enough to keep up with a Seattle attack that's found its footing after falling apart in Week 1 against the Rams.

Regardless, the Giants will have to move the ball through the air to keep up, so the onus will be on a shaky offensive line to protect Daniel Jones. This is a good spot for the Giants, but without knowing Barkley's status I have to lean Seattle, as of publication.

The pick: Seahawks 26 – Giants 23