Beating the Book: Eagles Clinch 1-Seed, Panthers Over Bucs + Full NFL Week 17 ATS Picks and Predictions

This article is part of our Beating the Book series.

Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Beating the Book!

We're down to only two weeks remaining in what's been a chaotic but entertaining 2022 NFL season. We scratched and clawed our way to an 8-8 mark in Week 16, thanks in part to some bad picks (Broncos -2.5 might've been the worst pick of the year) and some tough luck (looking at you, Miles Sanders).

After the Eagles let us down as a best bet last week, we're back on the right side thanks to the covering machine that is Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincy did all it could to hand the game to New England late, but in the end the Bengals' defense came through to seal a seventh straight win, as well as a seventh straight cover.

Looking back, I'd like to retroactively claim all Bengals games from Weeks 10 through 16 as my actual best bet. All of those other failed picks were actually an elaborate, months-long prank by me. Can't believe you guys fell for it.

Anyway, we look ahead to what should be another highly competitive week as several games carry massive postseason implications. After the weather wreaked havoc on much of the country over Christmas, we're back to semi-normal conditions, for the most part, in Week 17. 

That's backed up by the fact that only two games currently carry a total of less than 40.0 – Colts-Giants (38.5) and Steelers-Ravens (36.0 – gross). Meanwhile, Bears-Lions is easily the highest total of the week at 52.0, with Monday night's showdown between Buffalo and Cincinnati close behind at 49.5. 

In terms of spreads, two games project as potential blowouts, while the other 14 contests each sit at a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are up to 11.0-point favorites on the road at Tennessee, while Kansas City is a 13.0-point home favorite against the reeling Broncos, as of Wednesday afternoon.

Before we fully dive in on the Week 17 slate, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 16 picks.

Last week: 8-8 ATS; 11-5 straight up; best bet won (Bengals -3.5 at Patriots)

On the season: 110-123-7 ATS; 154-84-2 straight up; 6-10 best bets

Best calls of Week 16: 

• While I may never fully let my guard down, my distrust of Wilson outweighs two decades of Jaguars-induced trauma.
• The Chiefs covering a double-digit number has burned us more than once this season. Nonetheless, I'll take Kansas City to step on the gas and cover for the first time since Week 10.

Worst calls of Week 16:

• The Lions have climbed to 19th in rush defense DVOA – two spots ahead of Carolina. While the Panthers should be able to make this a relatively entertaining game at home, it feels like they may be running out of gas at the wrong time. 
• Denver's defense is the unit I trust the most – by a wide margin – so I'll take the Broncos to force a couple of Baker Mayfield turnovers and win another low-scoring game.

NFL Week 17 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via BetMGM, as of Wednesday at Noon ET. If you don't have a BetMGM account yet, you can use this BetMGM bonus code for a generous welcome bonus.

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (-11.0) at Tennessee Titans

Although Dallas will almost certainly wind up with the 5-seed in the NFC, I don't see the Cowboys taking it easy until their chances to catch Philly for the NFC East title are officially extinguished.

Even if the Cowboys were to pull back at all, they should still be in very good shape against a free-falling Titans team that will once again pin its hopes on Malik Willis. Tennessee had no choice but to let Willis loose – relatively speaking, of course – last week against Houston, and that ended with back-to-back picks on the Titans' final two possessions. He now faces the league's No. 2 pass defense by DVOA.

That defense did just allow 34 points to Philadelphia with a backup quarterback, but when it mattered most Dallas forced a key turnover before getting a stop on the final possession of the game. Dak Prescott has been far from perfect of late, but other than an early pick-six, he was masterful in last week's 40-34 victory.

No matter what, the Titans' season will come down to next week's winner-take-all showdown in Jacksonville, so it's fair to wonder if Tennessee is the team that could be in preservation mode with some of its key pieces – especially on a short week.

For a number reasons, this is a tough one to handicap, but I'll default to the much better team on both sides and take Dallas to win and cover.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Titans 13

Sunday Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

I know the Lord gives his toughest battles to his strongest soldiers, but what have we done to deserve this matchup? My goodness. 

Arizona put up a fight against Tampa Bay on Sunday night but couldn't quite slam the door shut despite another sluggish effort by the Bucs' offense. Trace McSorley threw the ball 45 times in the game – roughly 30 more than he probably should have. Arizona is hoping to get Colt McCoy back this week, and while he's an upgrade over McSorley, he's not necessarily a difference-maker.

On the other side, Atlanta enters Week 3 of the Desmond Ridder Era after a pair of losses to New Orleans and Baltimore. Ridder looked better last week against a strong Ravens defense, completing 22-of-33 passes for 218 yards and no picks. Atlanta should be able to gash the Cardinals' 27th-ranked run defense, though if McCoy does play, Arizona should be a much more competent offense.

In one of the all-time meaningless games in NFL history, I'll take Arizona to cover but Ridder to notch his first NFL victory.

The pick: Falcons 20 – Cardinals 17

Chicago Bears (+6.0) at Detroit Lions

This is very close to a must-win for Detroit, which could be eliminated by the end of the week if it were to lose this game at home. The Lions are coming off of a fairly shocking blowout loss to the Panthers, who ran all over Detroit en route to a 37-23 victory. At one point in the first half, the commentators were openly discussing whether the Panthers would break the NFL single-game rushing record (they did not).

For the Lions, it was the first time they've truly been humbled since all the way back in Week 7, when they fell to the Cowboys 24-6. Their only other loss in that span came against Buffalo on Thanksgiving Day – a game Detroit probably should've won. With last week's loss, the Lions now have less than a 25% chance to make the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight. Winning out would keep them in the mix, but the Lions will need some help the rest of the way.

Returning home after a pair of road games on the east coast, I like Detroit's chances to refocus and get back on track. The defense did have plenty of trouble corralling Justin Fields back in Week 10 – a come-from-behind 31-30 win for Detroit – but with this game being played in Detroit, I don't see Chicago's offense keeping up.

The pick: Lions 31 – Bears 24

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.0) at Houston Texans

Nail down the dog, folks, because the Jacksonville Jaguars, led by emerging superstar Trevor Lawrence, are officially in first place in the AFC South. Thanks to a combination of a second-half surge and a complete collapse by Tennessee, the Jaguars improbably control their own destiny the rest of the way.

As far as the AFC South – your favorite division's favorite division – crown is concerned, this game against Houston doesn't matter. No matter what, the winner of next week's Battle at the Bank will secure a playoff spot. With Ryan Tannehill "unlikely" to play, the Jaguars should feel good about their chances to win at home.

But the Titans have been a thorn in their side for decades, harkening all the way back to 1999 when the Jags finished the year 14-3 (including playoffs), falling one win short of the Super Bowl with all three losses coming to Tennessee. 

Alright, back to the present. Division aside, there's a scenario in which Jacksonville could lose to Tennessee next week and still make the playoffs:

Is it unlikely? Sure. But it's enough that I don't see the Jaguars taking their foot off the gas against Houston. There's something to be said for maintaining late-season momentum – especially for a team with little-to-no playoff experience. On top of that, the Jags already lost to Houston earlier this season, so there's a minor vengeance factor at play. Keep in mind, too, that Houston is clinging to a narrow lead over Chicago in the race for the No. 1 pick. A win here would be devastating.

Jags win, cover and keep things rolling heading into The Game in Week 18.

The pick: Jaguars 24 – Texans 17

Denver Broncos (+13.0) at Kansas City Chiefs

Well, for roughly the seventh time this season, the Broncos hit a new rock-bottom last week. Giving up 51 points to Baker Mayfield was apparently the final nail in the coffin for Nathaniel Hackett, who will go down as one of the more disastrous coaching hires in NFL history. 

It says a lot when your firing makes the official CBS News – not CBS Sports or a local affiliate – Twitter account.

Honestly, the firing of Hackett doesn't even feel like news to me. It's been obvious for months that he was a dead man walking, and making the decision in Week 16, rather than a couple weeks later, doesn't really change much. Denver will now hand things over to Jerry Rosburg, who was out of the NFL for three years before Hackett brought him on as a clock management strategist earlier this season. Most fans probably best remember Rosburg as the special teams coach of the vaunted 2006 Browns, who finished 4-12.

Coaching aside, the complete collapse of Denver's defense is the primary concern – especially heading into Arrowhead. In many ways, last week felt like the defiant, final straw for a defense that's spent most of the season keeping the Broncos in games they have no business being in. Whether that unit has anything left in the tank with nothing to play for will be interesting to see.

Either way, I don't see the Chiefs meeting much resistance at home – especially with the 1-seed in the AFC still very much in play.

The pick: Chiefs 33 – Broncos 14

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at New England Patriots

Just over a month ago, the Dolphins were riding a five-game winning streak to first place in the AFC East. Fast-forward a month and Miami has now dropped four straight games and is close to a 50/50 proposition to make the playoffs. 

With Tua Tagovailoa now officially ruled out after suffering another concussion against Green Bay, it will be the Teddy Bridgewater show in New England. A win, plus a Jets loss to Seattle, would put the Dolphins in the playoffs, but it'll be an uphill battle against a New England team that needs a victory to avoid elimination.

It's impossible to get a true read on this game with Bridgewater starting, but given how Tua has looked for 75% of the last month, it may not be a meaningful downgrade. Bridgewater is a high-end backup, but even so I'll take New England to win and cover a close game at home.

The pick: Patriots 23 – Dolphins 20

Indianapolis Colts (+6.0) at New York Giants

Despite coming up short against Minnesota last week, the Giants enter Week 17 with several clinching scenarios. The easiest of those is simply beating the Colts – win and they're in.

The Giants do have a way of making things harder than they need to be, but this is the rare matchup in which they have the better head coach, better quarterback and (arguably) better skill-position talent.

Indianapolis was a complete disaster on Monday night against the Chargers, averaging just 3.5 yards per play and failing to convert a single third down. I was actually relatively high on Nick Foles under the belief that he'd be willing to sling the ball around more than 37-year-old Matt Ryan. Technically, I was 100 percent correct about that, although most of the slinging resulted in easy interceptions for the Chargers' defense.

Jeff Saturday has already confirmed that Foles will remain the starter for Week 17, which is arguably a most-lose game for Indianapolis when it comes to maintaining draft positioning. Currently, the Colts would pick fifth in the 2023 NFL Draft, but they have a reasonable chance to move into the top three should Arizona or Denver win one of its final two games.

With all of that in mind, the Colts should not want to win this game. Players don't have the same mindset as the front office, however, so I'll predict we get a relatively competitive game that becomes uncomfortable for the Giants, at times.

New York wins and covers at home to clinch its first postseason berth since the Orleans Darkwa Year (2016).

Side note: the Giants have been remarkably consistent when it comes to points this season. They've scored between 20 and 24 points in 10 of 15 games and have only scored more than 24 points once (27 vs. Green Bay). 

The pick: Giants 23 – Colts 20

New Orleans Saints (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints are somehow not eliminated in the race for the NFC South crown fedora with safari flaps, but a loss here would obviously end their slim chances of stealing the division away from Tampa Bay. 

Philly, meanwhile, still needs to win one more game to lock up the NFC East, as well as the No. 1 seed. Taking down the Saints is the easiest path to accomplishing those goals, though the Vikings, 49ers and Cowboys all losing in Week 16 would also hand the top seed to Philly.

At this stage, it's unclear if we'll see Jalen Hurts back at quarterback. He's reportedly "pushing" to play, though there's little reason for the Eagles to risk further injury as the postseason approaches. Even without Hurts, Philly has to feel good about its chances to beat New Orleans at home with Gardner Minshew. Speak of the devil, Minshew did turn the ball over three times in last week's 40-34 loss to Dallas, but he also threw for 355 yards and two scores while all three of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert had productive games. 

While New Orleans gets some credit for pulling off a come-from-behind road win in brutal conditions last week, the Saints are ultimately not a good football team. Whether it's Hurts or Minshew, I like the Eagles to sense the moment and take care of business to lock up the top seed in the NFC.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Saints 20

Carolina Panthers (+3.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We've been saying all season that the Bucs essentially play the exact same game every week. Sometimes they win, other times they lose, but there's very little variance – especially on offense.

Yet again last week, a team let the Bucs off the hook despite another dreadful performance. Sunday's win over Arizona was the third time in the last seven weeks that Tampa has played terrible football for 97% of the game, then Tom Brady manages to steal a win at the last second from a bad team that couldn't stay out of its own way.

Are the Panthers a better team than the Bucs? It's a wild question to ask about a Sam Darnold-quarterbacked offense, but I think they might be. They're definitely less-soul-sucking to watch. Carolina already has a 21-3 victory over Tampa on the books, and the Panthers are coming off of perhaps their best win of the season. Another win Sunday would put Carolina in the driver's seat in the NFC South with one week remaining.

I'm so sick of this Tampa Bay team that it's time to put my foot down. There's very little evidence to suggest that my picks are indicative of what will actually happen in any given week, but we really need this one. 

For better for worse, we're rolling with Darnold to summon his inner Jake Delhomme and lead Carolina to an outright win on the road.

The pick: Panthers 19 – Buccaneers 17

Cleveland Browns (+2.0) at Washington Commanders

While this may be the least visually appealing game of the weekend, it holds massive playoff implications for the Commanders. A loss would send Washington's chances plummeting to just 7%, whereas a win would put the Commanders in control of their own destiny in Week 18.

This game will be played in the early window, so Green Bay, in particular, will be doing some major scoreboard-watching. The Packers need to beat Minnesota, first and foremost, but they also need Washington to lose one of its final two games. 

After mulling on it for a few days, Ron Rivera announced Wednesday that he will, in fact, go back to Carson Wentz at quarterback Sunday. Rivera is ultimately choosing between two poor options. On the one hand, Heinicke is partly responsible for the Commanders' mid-season surge, though he struggled in back-to-back ugly losses to the Giants and 49ers. On the other hand, Carson Wentz is Carson Wentz.

Regardless of the quarterback, we'll likely get a close game between two very similar teams. With Cleveland's offense looking borderline-disastrous since Deshaun Watson took over, I'll default to the home side and take Washington to win and cover a game that leaves us mostly dispirited with both teams.

The pick: Commanders 23 – Browns 20

Sunday Late Games

San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Each week, I find myself waiting for San Francisco to show any signs of vulnerability, and each week the Niners issue a stern reminder that they might be the most complete team in the NFL. Last week, they got off to a sluggish start and were tied 7-7 at halftime before scoring on six of their seven second-half drives en route to a 37-20 blowout victory. 

San Francisco enters Week 17 having gone eight straight games without giving up double-digit points in any individual quarter (32 straight quarters -- math guy). The Niners have also won the total yardage battle in 14 of their 15 games this season while finishing with more yards per play than their opponent in 13 of 15 games. Certified Wagon status.

While the 1-seed in the NFC is likely out of reach, the Niners can still pass Minnesota for the No. 2 spot, which guarantees a home game in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. With that in mind, the Niners should be plenty motivated to push their winning streak up to nine games against a Raiders team coming off yet another crushing loss.

UPDATE: The Raiders will bench Derek Carr in favor of Jarrett Stidham. The line has moved to 49ers -9.5 at BetMGM, as of Wednesday afternoon.

I'm not sure how the league quantifies this, but it certainly feels like the Raiders have shattered the NFL's single-season record for adjusted NET devastation per game. Following Saturday night's 13-0 loss to Pittsburgh, Josh Jacobs sounded like a broken man.

The Raiders have surprised us in a few spots this season, but at this point they're a dead team walking, and I don't think Stidham gives them any tangible jolt.

Give me the 49ers to top 30 points for the fourth time in the last five games and roll to their ninth cover in the last 10 games.

The pick: 49ers 31 – Raiders 20

New York Jets (-2.0) at Seattle Seahawks

This is a tough line because I don't know that the Jets deserve this much respect on the road at Seattle, but I also don't think the Seahawks win this game.

Assuming Mike White looks like himself, the Jets should be able to throw the ball, which was not really part of the offense last Thursday against the Jaguars. Utilizing the forward pass is a significant advantage – many don't realize this – so I think we see a much better version of the Jets' offense this week, especially against the league's 26th-ranked defense by DVOA.

Both teams absolutely need this game – Seattle is all but eliminated with a loss; New York is actually eliminated with a loss – so we should be prepared for some general wackiness on both sides – particularly Seattle. If Tyler Lockett is able to return this week, that would provide a meaningful boost, but if he's out or even limited, it's tough to envision the Seahawks effectively moving the ball on this Jets defense.

In a battle between two teams that have combined for two wins since Week 9, I'll side with the better defense and take New York to win and cover.

The pick: Jets 27 – Seahawks 21

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers

There's very little variance with this Minnesota team. The Vikings either get blown out, or they win by a score. That's it. Those are the two outcomes. Literally the only game that's bucked that trend this season came against this very Packers team all the way back in Week 1. Outside of that, Minnesota has 11 one-score victories (including five game-winning field goals) and three losses by a combined 65 points. 

The Vikings had the NFC North sewn up a long time ago, but they're still playing for seeding and are technically alive for the 1-seed. Meanwhile, Green Bay remains in full-on desperation mode, but over the last few weeks virtually everything has moved in their favor. Suddenly, the Packers are two wins – plus one Commanders loss or two Giants losses – away from a Wild Card spot. 

Credit the Packers for capitalizing on three disastrous Tua Tagovailoa interceptions last week in Miami, but I did not come away from that game feeling any better about Green Bay. Absent of the turnovers, the defense displayed its usual flaws, while the offense failed to convert several golden opportunities in the red zone.

Historically, betting against Aaron Rodgers in these situations has not been a winning proposition, but I don't trust this Packers team – specifically the defense – to slow down Justin Jefferson, who burned the secondary for nine catches, 184 yards and two scores in Week 1. On the other side, the Packers' two best playmakers – Aaron Jones and Christian Watson – emerged from Sunday's win with injuries and are currently questionable. Return man Keisean Nixon is also banged up, which I can assure you is a bigger deal than you'd think.

For the sake of watchability, I'm absolutely rooting for Green Bay to get into the playoffs over Washington or Detroit, but I think the Packers' luck runs out here.

The pick: Vikings 31 – Packers 28

Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Rams putting up 51 points on what we thought was a stout Denver defense last week has forced me to think a little bit harder about this game. But even as the Rams have found some life with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, I remain convinced that last week's result was more about Denver's incompetence than the Rams suddenly making a late-season leap.

The Chargers are officially in the postseason after outlasting the Colts on Monday night, but – as most Chargers games tend to go – it wasn't exactly the most convincing effort.

I don't see the Chargers getting tripped up here, but the Rams are playing with an air of nothing-to-lose confidence, which makes sense given that they don't own their 2023 first-round pick. I'll take the Rams to make this a competitive game and cover, but Los Angeles -- the Chargers, that is -- wins outright.

The pick: Chargers 27 – Rams 21

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.0) at Baltimore Ravens

With this line sitting at Ravens -3.0, it feels like somewhat of a placeholder until we get official clarity on the status of Lamar Jackson. The last we heard from Baltimore was that Jackson is expected to begin "football-related movements" this week, which… who knows what that means.

As of Wednesday, Jackson's status is firmly clouded, and I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if the Ravens are forced to stick with Tyler Huntley for one more week. Baltimore has already clinched a playoff spot and is only competing for seeding at this point. If anything, the Ravens may want to lose their way out of the No. 5 spot in the AFC to duck a potential rematch against the 18-wheeler that is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are one of a handful of teams that are somehow still alive for the postseason but feel like they should've been eliminated a month ago. Pittsburgh's chances are extremely slim, but Mike Tomlin's streak of non-losing seasons is also on the line.

Whether it's Jackson or Huntley, I think we get another ugly, low-scoring game from the Baltimore offense. We already know that's a lock for Pittsburgh, as well. I'll take the Ravens to win at home, but the Steelers find a way to cover.

The pick: Ravens 21 – Steelers 20

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

What a monster matchup in the AFC. The Bills are currently in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but a loss here would put Kansas City in the driver's seat for a first-round bye. It would also give Cincinnati the edge for the No. 2 seed – meaning home field advantage for a likely Divisional Round rematch between these two teams.

However you slice it, this is a massively important game for both sides and easily the best game on the Week 17 slate. While I'll admit that the Bills may have the higher upside when they're firing on all cylinders, to me Cincinnati has been the more consistent team this season. Despite winning – and covering! – seven games in a row, including a big one over Kansas City in that stretch, the Bengals still find themselves as home dogs here. I know the La'el Collins injury is big, but I still don't think Cincinnati should be getting points.

With the 1-seed on the line, I fully expect the Bills to come out with an aggressive plan, but I also trust Joe Burrow and the Bengals' offense to consistently move the ball. This is truly a toss-up game – full disclosure: it's my one-pointer in Pick 'Em – but I'll side with Cincinnati to win at home and bolster its already-impressive resume.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Bills 24