Beating the Book: Eagles Roll, Chiefs Handle Jaguars

After scratching and clawing our way to an 8-8 mark in Week 1, we move on to the Week 2 slate. Last week brought its usual share of surprise results, but we were especially caught off-guard by the Seahawks' second-half no-show. That sunk one of our five ATS picks in the Circa Million contest, where we finished 3-2 on the week.

The other foil to our 3-0 start in the early window was the Broncos (-3.5 vs. Las Vegas), who issued a stern reminder that they are, in fact, still the same Broncos. It felt like Denver lost that exact game no fewer than six times last season. We're officially putting the Broncos on a performance improvement plan, with weekly check-ins, before using them again in Circa Millions.

Anyway, enough complaining. Let's get to Week 2. The obvious headliners are Commanders-Broncos, Colts-Texans and Bears-Buccaneers, but beyond those three lie several interesting matchups – and a boatload of low totals. As of Wednesday morning, exactly half of the Week 2 board features a total of 41.0 or lower. And it makes sense after ugly offensive showings in Week 1, which unders finished 12-4.

We don't have a single double-digit favorite on the board, though the Cowboys are close (-9.5 at DraftKings) as they welcome Zach Wilson to Dallas on Sunday. The Bills are 8.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders, while the 49ers sit as 7.5-point favorites at the Rams.

You can find a few more thoughts on that game – as well as the entire Week 2 slate – below. As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 8-8 ATS, 9-7 SU; 1-0 best bet

On the season: 8-8 ATS, 9-7 SU; 1-0 best bet

Best calls of Week 1

• In what will likely be a slog for both teams, I'll take the Saints to squeak out a narrow win at home, but I'm not picking against MIke Vrabel (61% ATS; 51% SU as an underdog) to cover.
• I can't trust the Colts to keep up offensively. I have my reservations about whether Jacksonville can keep up against the top-tier teams in the NFL, but this offense is good enough to beat the teams it should beat.

Worst calls of Week 1

• In one of my favorite picks of the week, I'll ride with Seattle to win its ninth straight home opener SU and move to 7-2 ATS in those games.
• I like the Steelers to get after Purdy early and find enough of a rhythm offensively to pull off yet another Week 1 upset at home and push Mike Tomlin to 17-4-3 ATS as a home dog.

Odds this week are the best available for each pick via RotoWire.com.

Use the DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus Code for a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

Thursday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.0)

As expected, Bill Belichick's defense was effective in slowing down Philly's attack in Week 1, but the Eagles should be in a much more advantageous spot this week. The Vikings' defense should be better under Brian Flores, but preparing for Jalen Hurts on a short week is a difficult ask. 

On the other side, Minnesota struggled to run the ball on Tampa Bay (17 carries, 41 yards) and will likely face the same fate against the Eagles' uber-talented front seven. Philly will have its hands full with Justin Jefferson, as was the case Week 2 last season, but Minnesota doesn't have enough firepower to keep up with one of the best overall rosters in the NFL. Eagles shake off a frustrating, rain-soaked Week 1 to win and cover.

The pick: Eagles 31 - Vikings 20

Sunday Early Games

Green Bay Packers (-1.0) at Atlanta Falcons

This number is already up to Packers -1.5 at some books, so it'll be interesting to see where it settles over the course of the week. Green Bay made perhaps the biggest statement of any team in Week 1 and did so without the services of its No. 1 receiver. The hope is that Christian Watson (hamstring) is able to debut this week, which could unlock another dimension of a passing game that, for the most part, gave the Bears' defense fits.

Perhaps most encouragingly, Jordan Love did not look the part of an inexperienced quarterback, and he didn't have a single deer-in-the-headlights moment. While Love wasn't perfect, his ability to manipulate defenders is what most jumped out from Week 1.

On the other side, Atlanta is coming off of an ugly-yet-convincing win over the division-rival Panthers. The Falcons' defense stepped up with a pair of interceptions to provide a much-needed boost for a sluggish offense. Atlanta will likely struggle to pass the ball all season, but the running game, now supercharged with Bijan Robinson, picked up where it left off in 2022.

I'm doing my best not to overrate Green Bay after one week, but the defense, plus a comfortable Love, was simply too good. This is a sneaky-tough road test for the Packers, but as long as Aaron Jones (hamstring) is good to go and the defense can force Ridder to beat them, I'll trust Green Bay to win a close game against a limited quarterback.

The pick: Packers 24 – Falcons 21

Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

Josh Allen willing the Bills to a loss on Monday Night moved this line a full point to where it now sits. While the Raiders deserve some respect after winning at Denver in Week 1, the Broncos also deserve plenty of criticism for their inability to move the ball against one of the NFL's least-talented defenses. Denver racked up just 260 total yards on the afternoon, including just 166 passing yards from Russell Wilson on 34 attempts.

The Bills enter Week 2 on the heels of a crushing loss to Zach Wilson, thanks in large part to three picks and a horrific fourth-quarter fumble by Josh Allen. While Buffalo's season couldn't have started on a more sour note, this should be a big-time bounceback spot at home against an inferior opponent. Give me the Bills to recalibrate and win comfortably.

The pick: Bills 31 – Raiders 21

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

This is one of a handful of extremely difficult matchups to pick in Week 2. Neither of these teams looked great in Week 1, but Baltimore was eventually able to ride its defense and running game to a comfortable victory over the lowly Texans. Meanwhile, the Bengals pulled off their second consecutive Week 1 no-show – this time generating just 142 yards of total offense in an unbelievably ugly loss at Cleveland.

Of course, the Bengals get the benefit of the doubt, but keep in mind that after losing to Pittsburgh in Week 1 last season, they fell flat against Dallas in Week 2, as well. With Baltimore likely to be missing several key players (J.K. Dobbins, Tyler Linderbaum, Ronnie Stanley, perhaps Mark Andrews), I'll lean toward Cincy to get back on track at home, but the Ravens cover a close game.

The pick: Bengals 24 – Ravens 21

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

This line opened at 2.5 and took a significant leap in favor of Detroit after Week 1. Given the results, it's understandable, but it feels to me like a slight overreaction to Seattle's second-half no-show, as well as Detroit backing its way into a win at Kansas City on Opening Night.

I've been skeptical of the Lions all offseason, and while winning at Arrowhead is never easy, we have to keep in mind that the Chiefs were without Chris Jones and Travis Kelce. And if Kadarius Toney catches literally any of his three massive drops, the Chiefs likely hang on to win and this line is at least a point lower. Over the last nine seasons, teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 are 39-22-1 ATS in Week 2. A year ago, those teams went 5-1 ATS in Week 2.

I'm on Detroit to win outright in what should be a wild environment, but this number feels a tad too high – even with the Seahawks potentially down both of their starting tackles. Seattle falls to 0-2 but gets the cover on the road.

The pick: Lions 31 – Seahawks 26

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Houston Texans

This feels like a cruel prank by the NFL schedule-makers, but technically Indy and Houston have to face each other twice, so what better time than now. We'll have to keep an eye on the status of Anthony Richardson, who exited Sunday's loss to the Jags late in the fourth quarter, but initial indications are that he's simply dealing with a bruised knee. For the most part, Richardson looked as-advertised in Week 1 – the Colts didn't ask him to do too much as a passer, but he generated a couple of big plays and consistently churned out extra yardage as a runner.

Houston acquitted itself fairly well against Baltimore in Week 1, but the offense is still very much a work in progress. The Texans weren't able to get anything going on the ground, and I expect that to be the same story in Week 2. Even so, these teams feel fairly evenly matched with two rookie quarterbacks and rookie head coaches. With that in mind, I'll take the point with Houston and essentially default to the home team in a look man, I don't know what's going to happen here pick. Deep down, I feel the Colts are being a little overvalued for hanging around with the Jags in a game that had some extremely flukey plays.

The pick: Texans 20 – Colts 17

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars

This number opened at Chiefs -3.0 back in May and has held steady even with the Chiefs' Week 1 loss and Travis Kelce's status still up in the air. If Kelce plays, I love Kansas City in this spot. The Chiefs should've taken care of the Lions in Week 1, and given that they were without two of their three best players, I don't hold that loss against them. It's fair to note that the issues at wide receiver may not resolve themselves, but that was truly a worst-case scenario game from  the KC pass-catchers. They'll have to be better against Jacksonville, but the return of Kelce – plus Chris Jones – would also go a long way toward solving many of the Chiefs' issues.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, won (and covered, I might add) last week in Indy, but it was anything but comfortable. New full-time play-caller Press Taylor was a mess on third and fourth downs, while rookie Tank Bigsby committed two massive turnovers to hand Indianapolis 14 points. Ultimately, the Jags pulled away late – as the better team should – but it was not exactly a please take us seriously as a Super Bowl contender type of performance.

As long as Kelce plays, the Chiefs aren't starting 0-2. With Jones back, the defense should have a nice advantage over Jacksonville, who could be without two starters on the offensive line. I'll take KC to win and cover an exciting game at The House That Cecil Shorts Built.

The pick: Chiefs 31 – Jaguars 27

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0)

This is probably my least-favorite game on the slate. We were on the Packers to win outright in Chicago last week, but I'll say it: I did not expect Green Bay to pound the Bears into the ground and pull away for a blowout victory. While the Bears' defense looked about as bad as last season, the more concerning factor was Justin Fields, who looked as erratic as ever behind an offensive line that was overwhelmed for much of the afternoon.

On the other side, Tampa Bay pulled the upset on the road at Minnesota in Week 1, despite being vastly out-gained and losing the yards-per-play battle 5.9 to 3.6. The Bucs' defense was able to force a pair of timely Kirk Cousins turnovers – both on drives that almost certainly would've yielded at least a field goal. Meanwhile, much like last season, Tampa Bay still struggled to run the ball against an average-at-best Minnesota defense. Rachaad White carried 17 times for 39 yards in one of the least-efficient days in recent NFL history. 

As noted last week, despite picking the Vikings to win and cover, I do think this Tampa Bay roster is being underrated. It's not a good team, but it's also not a bad team. The question is whether Baker Mayfield can continue to play turnover-free football. History strongly suggests the answer is "hell no", so I'm riding with the Bears to cover this game on the road. Prior to Week 1, Chicago was a 1.5-point favorite on the look-ahead. Week 1 was disastrous for Chicago, but a 4.5-point swing feels like too much.

The pick: Buccaneers 23 – Bears 21

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) at Tennessee Titans

Buried in the Chargers' loss to Miami was the fact that LA rushed for 234 yards on 40 carries, with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley splitting the workload fairly evenly. Ekeler is battling an ankle issue to begin the week so his status will need to be monitored closely. Assuming Ekeler plays, I like this spot for the Chargers to bounce back – even on the road against a Mike Vrabel-coached team.

The Chargers' secondary – particularly JC Jackson – had some rough moments against Miami, but I don't trust Ryan Tannehill, who tossed three picks in Week 1, to expose those weaknesses again. Tennessee's defensive line could pose some issues, but the Chargers can put up enough points to out-race the Titans over four quarters.

The pick: Chargers 26 – Titans 21

Sunday Afternoon Games

New York Giants (-5.0) at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona might be the least-talented team in the NFL, but no team looked worse than the Giants in Week 1. The image of a saddened, soaking wet Daniel Jones still in the game, down 40-0, with under four minutes remaining is already seared into my mind. But that's the kind of night it was for the Giants, who simply could not generate any tangible momentum after a blocked field goal and a pick-six put them in an early hole.

Ultimately, Dallas is probably a top-five team in the league, and the Giants are closer to an average team who played their worst game of the season on national television. Even on the road, I love the Giants to bounce back in Week 2 against a Cardinals team that hung in with Washington but is going to have trouble doing the same with more-competent teams. Jones, Saquon Barkley, Darren Waller and the Giants pull away early and sit on a comfortable lead in the second half.

The pick: Giants 27 – Cardinals 17

San Francisco 49ers (-8.0) at Los Angeles Rams

Both of these teams were among the most impressive in Week 1. The Rams foiled one of my favorite bets of the week (Seattle -5.5), while the 49ers laid waste to the Steelers in a difficult spot on the road. San Francisco essentially picked up where it left off last season with Brock Purdy showing few, if any, signs of rust after a limited preseason. 

Out in Seattle, the Rams' anonymous defense squeezed the life out of the Seahawks in the second half, while Matthew Stafford (I'll admit: forgot how good he is) was able to rip off a series of chunk plays on the Seattle secondary. Week 1 was a reminder that Sean McVay is, in fact, an elite head coach, but the Rams will be incredibly out-classed in terms of two-way personnel this week. Even if both teams regress from Week 1, I still think we see a comfortable victory for the Niners.

By the way, we need to put Cam Akers' historic Week 1 performance in the proper historical context.

The pick: 49ers 33 – Rams 21

New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

While the Jets pulled off an incredibly improbable Week 1 win, the reality has begun to set in: Aaron Rodgers is not coming back. Zach Wilson is your quarterback. Word on the street is New York is looking into some veteran options – they'll need to add someone, whether he starts or not – but Wilson will be under center in Week 2.

On the road at Dallas is a brutal spot for Wilson and for the Jets, who will have to recalibrate expectations on the fly while traveling and preparing for the Cowboys on a short week. As we saw on Monday night, the Jets' defense is good enough to keep them in games, but Dallas' defense might be even better. It's a big number, but I'll ride with the team not starting Zach Wilson as long as it stays under 10.0.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Jets 17

Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

I know I just said Bears-Buccaneers is my least-favorite game of the week. Disregard that. This is the one. Neither team looked particularly good in Week 1 – Washington barely squeaked by the worst team in the league at home, while Denver looked like the same team as last year that simply could not put away close games.

If Jerry Jeudy is back in the mix for the Broncos, he could provide them with a much-needed big play threat, but if he's not, the Denver passing game will likely be stuck in the mud again. In Week 1, Russell Wilson completed 27-of-34 passes (not bad) for 177 yards (pretty bad). If that was the output against the Raiders' defense, it's a concerning harbinger for what could be coming against one of the better units in the NFL a year ago.

We'll take the Broncos to pull out another downright gross game at home, but with the number at 3.5 we'll take Washington to cover a three-point game.

The pick: Broncos 17 – Commanders 14

Sunday Night Football

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New England Patriots

The Pats put up enough of a fight against Philly in Week 1 to convince me that they'll be able to slow down what looked like perhaps the best offense in the NFL in Miami. It'll be virtually impossible for MIami to replicate that kind of outburst again this season – particularly against Bill Belichick on the road. 

I'm not counting out the Dolphins by any means – this is among the toughest picks of the week – but the Patriots had a very winnable game against Philly in Week 1. Something tells me the defense shows up, generates a couple of turnovers, and the Pats find a way to get the running game going.

The pick: Patriots 24 – Dolphins 23

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (-3.0) at Carolina Panthers

I really like the Saints in this spot. I'm not sure if I should, but I do. It wasn't pretty, but the Saints pulled out a Week 1 win against Tennessee, picking off Ryan Tannehill three times in the process. Derek Carr threw an interception himself, and the Saints were put in an early 3-0 hole after fumbling the opening kickoff. 

Tennessee may not be what it was a few years ago, but the Titans remain a difficult opponent, so I'm certainly not downgrading New Orleans. The Saints now have to go on the road against a formidable defense but a fairly limited offense in Bryce Young's second NFL start. Young had a few standout plays against Atlanta in Week 1, but for the most part he very much looked the part of a young quarterback that the veteran Saints' defense should be able to attack.

With Carolina down top corner Jaycee Horn, I like the Saints to come out fast and win by a touchdown to move to 2-0.

The pick: Saints 24 – Panthers 17

Cleveland Browns (-2.0) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The look-ahead on this game was Steelers -1.0, but that quickly flipped after Pittsburgh was boat-raced at home by the 49ers on Sunday. The Browns, meanwhile, slogged their way through a convincing win over the Bengals, holding Joe Burrow under 100 yards passing on a sloppy afternoon in Cleveland. Deshaun Watson looked… decent – still not the Watson of old, but it was an encouraging enough performance given the conditions.

With Pittsburgh reeling and now down Diontae Johnson and Cameron Heyward, the Browns' defense should be in position for another big day. If Kenny Pickett can't settle in and generate chunk plays with limited weaponry, it could be another long day.  

The pick: Browns 20 – Steelers 17