Beating the Book: Falcons Start Hot, Steelers Hang On, Chargers Win a Shootout

After a long, punishing six-plus months without football, Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is finally upon us. And with that, we're back for another year of Beating the Book here at RotoWire.

How did I spend the last six months, you ask? Other than working tirelessly to lower my handicap, I've focused on one thing: Getting better. That's how. While I had a ton of fun writing this article each week last season, we finished with a sub-.500 record in 2022, squandering a solid start with a handful of lackluster weeks late in the year. That was on me. The standard is the standard.

Determined to avoid the same fate in 2023, we're wiping the slate clean, starting anew, and spending every waking moment visualizing the board. Speaking of which, I'll be back on the mic weekly with my good friend John McKechnie, who will join me for a special, NFL-betting-focused episode of the RotoWire Football Podcast.

You can find us wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as the RotoWire YouTube channel. Each week, we'll take you through the board, breaking down our favorite sides, prop bets, totals and, of course, locks of the week. In essence, the boys are going to be talking ball, and we'd love for you to join us.

Anyway, that's enough preamble. Let's turn our focus on Week 1, which begins with Lions at Chiefs on Thursday night. In the interest of full disclosure, I've been down on the Lions, relative to consensus, and it remains jarring to see them get Opening Night billing at Arrowhead. But here we are. Whether I like it or not, the Lions have (kind of) arrived.

Detroit comes into the year with its highest win total (9.5) in more than 30 years, so expectations are plenty high after the Lions ripped off eight wins in their final 10 games last season. There's no question the franchise is moving in the right direction, but my expectations remain tempered. The Lions will rely on rookie starters at running back and tight end, while the receiving corps is wildly underwhelming outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. The defense should be slightly improved – it would be nearly impossible for it to be as bad as it was last season – but the Lions have plenty to prove on that side of the ball.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs could very well be without both Chris Jones (for contract reasons) and Travis Kelce (for injury reasons). With Kelce in the mix, I was all over the Chiefs to win at home, but the potential absence of such a key piece throws this one in the I Don't Like It One Bit zone. For what it's worth, the Chiefs are calling Kelce questionable for the opener as of Wednesday afternoon.

You can find a few more thoughts on that game – as well as the entire Week 1 slate – below. For time purposes, I'm (attempting to) make a point to keep these write-ups a bit more brief this season. This one came in at almost 4,000 words so we're already 0-for-1, but it's a long season.

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week come via the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Use the DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus Code for a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

Thursday Night Football

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

When this game opened, I was all over the Chiefs to cover 6.5 points at home on ring night. While I remain skeptical that Detroit is ready or deserving of this spot, the Lions' chances to cover – or even win outright – have improved with the increasing likelihood that Kansas City will be without two of its three best players.

The absence of Travis Kelce, in particular, is concerning for a pass-catching group that now resembles the 2018 Cleveland Cavaliers (yes, I'm burning my one egregious cross-sport reference per week in the first game). With that said, I'm not picking against the Chiefs' version of LeBron James to act as the point guard, spread the floor, and find a way to make it work. In a blind vote of confidence in the best player in the NFL, I'm taking Kansas City to win at home and barely cover the 4.5-point spread.

The pick: Chiefs 29 - Lions 24

Sunday Early Games

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

I've been high on the Falcons all offseason – specifically their 8.5 win total. Not so much because I'm in love with the roster, but because they have one of the easiest projected schedules in the NFL. Over its first eight games, here are the quarterbacks Atlanta faces: Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, Sam Howell, Baker Mayfield (?), Ryan Tannehill.

And after that, it doesn't get a whole lot tougher. The Falcons get out-of-division games against Arizona, Indianapolis and Chicago down the stretch. Over the course of the season, the Falcons will face – at most – four top-half-of-the-league quarterbacks.

But for now we're focused on Week 1, when the Falcons catch Bryce Young in his first NFL start. There's plenty to like about the No. 1 overall pick, but with the group of weapons around him, his rookie year could be a rocky one. Carolina's defense remains underrated, particularly if Jaycee Horn can stay healthy, but I love the Falcons to get off to a positive start at home. While I don't always love backing a favorite in an early divisional game, give me the Falcons to cover comfortably.

The pick: Falcons 24 - Panthers 13

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-10.0)

The hiring of DeMeco Ryans brought a much-needed sense of stability to the Texans franchise, but this is still a roster with some significant holes on both sides of the ball. It all starts with C.J. Stroud, of course, but like Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, Stroud will likely have his fair share of ups and downs as a rookie. Making his first NFL start on the road at Baltimore is an extremely difficult spot – there's a reason this is easily the biggest spread on the board.

Meanwhile, the Ravens have a new offensive coordinator and new weapons for Lamar Jackson. I'm high on what the new-look offense can achieve under Todd Monken, but I can't help but shake the feeling that it'll take some time for Jackson, Odell Beckham, Zay Jones and Co. to settle in. Even so, there may be no better team to settle in against than the Texans. While the defensive personnel is (somewhat) improved, Houston's offense will really struggle early on. It's not difficult to envision Stroud, who threw for 89 total yards over eight offensive series in the preseason, fighting for his life.

As noted by The Action Network, underdogs of at least 8.0 points are a staggering 25-9 ATS over the last 20 years. Give me Baltimore to buck that trend and cover the only double-digit spread of Week 1.

The pick: Ravens 27 - Texans 16

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns

As a card-carrying Jags Guy®, there's an unspoken alliance with the other big cat franchises. The Bengals are my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can they avoid getting off to another rough start? In some ways, this offseason mirrors the last, when Joe Burrow's appendix largely prevented him from participating in camp. This time around, it's a calf injury that's relegated the quarterback to watching from the sideline.

Chances are, Burrow will have some rust to shake off. And while it probably won't result in four picks, seven sacks and two fumbles, I expect enough hiccups to allow the Browns to build an early lead, come extremely close to blowing it, but ultimately hang on to win and cover at home. 

The pick: Browns 27 – Bengals 23

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.0) at Indianapolis Colts

Readers of this column last season know where I stand on the Jaguars, a franchise that has caused me a significant ,and perhaps irreparable, amount of emotional damage over the last two decades. But for the first time in franchise history, the Jaguars have a quarterback who could wind up as one of the five best at the position in the entire league. With the amount of talent at the top, it'll be a high bar to clear for Trevor Lawrence, but his quest to solidify his seat at the table begins with an advantageous Week 1 matchup.

If the Jaguars hope to control the AFC South and prove they belong in the same general stratosphere as teams like Kansas City, Buffalo and Cincinnati, this is the type of the game they should control from start to finish. Talent-wise, Indy is not the worst team in the NFL, but it's in the conversation – especially with Jonathan Taylor MIA.

What we must keep in mind is that the Anthony Richardson Chaos Factor (ARCF) looms large here – particularly against a Jaguars defense that did not make any major improvements this summer. In the long-term, that defense could be Jacksonville's downfall, but Richardson will likely commit enough mistakes to prevent a Week 1 disaster. On the other side, the Jags' offense should be able to fire away against an Indy defense that allowed the third-most points in the NFL a season ago.

While I'm never going to feel great playing a division favorite on the road in Week 1 – divisional underdogs are 61% ATS in Week 1 since 2005 – I can't trust the Colts to keep up offensively. I have my reservations about whether Jacksonville can keep up against the top-tier teams in the NFL, but this offense is good enough to beat the teams it should beat.

It was always the Jags.

The pick: Jaguars 27 - Colts 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.0)

My stance on the Vikings all offseason has been yes, they'll absolutely regress – but by how much? Minnesota sure as hell isn't going 11-0 in one-score games again, but as a 13-win team a year ago, they could drop 3 or 4 more games and still contend for the NFC North crown. The defense remains a major question mark, but a home matchup against Baker Mayfield should provide a relatively soft runway.

I don't think this Bucs roster is as bad as some make it out to be, but Minnesota has enough talent on offense – headlined by the most dominant receiver in the game – to win and cover at home. Todd Bowles' record as an underdog is borderline-disastrous, while Mayfield is just 29-41-1 ATS as a starter in his career.

The pick: Vikings 27 - Buccaneers 17

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3.0)

Week 1 brings us plenty of juicy matchups, and this one might be the single most difficult game to pick. The Saints are the rightful favorite in the NFC South, and even if you're not a Derek Carr Guy, he's still an upgrade over what the Saints have dealt with at quarterback over the last two seasons.

Meanwhile, the Titans are running it back for what could be one final ride with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. Over the course of 18 weeks, Tennessee will be walking a thin line – an injury to Tannehill, DeAndre Hopkins or Derrick Henry could all but sink this offense. But when fully healthy, as should be the case for Week 1, Tennessee can absolutely challenge Jacksonville for top spot in the AFC South. 

In what will likely be a slog for both teams, I'll take the Saints to squeak out a narrow win at home, but I'm not picking against MIke Vrabel (61% ATS; 51% SU as an underdog) to cover.

The pick: Saints 22 - Titans 20

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Browns over Bengals and Steelers over 49ers are two of the trendier Week 1 upset picks – and for good reason. San Francisco has to make a cross-country trip to Pittsburgh to face an elite defense and an offense that should be much-improved in Kenny Pickett's second season. Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth are formidable weapons in the passing game, and the emergence of Jaylen Warren gives the Steelers another option if Najee Harris gets off to a sluggish start. 

In the long term, the Niners should settle in and once again be one of the league's most dominant two-way teams, but this is an incredibly tough spot for Brock Purdy, who was on a pitch count throughout the preseason. I like the Steelers to get after Purdy early and find enough of a rhythm offensively to pull off yet another Week 1 upset at home and push Mike Tomlin to 17-4-3 ATS as a home dog. Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan is just 1-5 ATS in Week 1 as the 49ers' head coach.

The pick: Steelers 23 - 49ers 20

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-7.0)

There's really only one team that could open as a touchdown dog against the Commanders in Week 1, and that's the Arizona Cardinals. As of publication, Arizona is yet to name a starting quarterback for this game, which is in four (4) days. In new head coach Nathan Fielder Jonathan Gannon's defense, his options are Clayton Tune and Joshua Dobbs – perhaps the saddest quarterback controversy in recent NFL history.

Editor's note: The Cardinals have apparently named Dobbs the starter Sunday.

Regardless of who ultimately starts – I wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing both QBs on Sunday – Arizona is going to be fighting an uphill battle all season. This is the least-talented roster in the NFL and a franchise that's squarely playing for the future. That's not to say Arizona won't try to win, but it's tough to imagine the Cardinals finding a way to protect Tune/Dobbs against a Commanders defense that ranked near the top of the league in EPA, score percentage, yards allowed and pressure rate last season. 

In all likelihood, it won't be pretty for either offense – especially if Terry McLaurin doesn't play. This feels like a potential trap with the number holding at 7.0, but I can't bring myself to put any faith in the Cardinals. I'll roll with the Commanders to win and (barely) cover in the We No Longer Have The Worst Owner In Sports Bowl.

The pick: Commanders 21 - Cardinals 13

Sunday Late Games

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.0)

The preseason is the preseason, but Jordan Love couldn't have done much more in three appearances to instill at least some degree of confidence that he'll be a competent quarterback in Year 1 of the post-Rodgers era. If nothing else, Matt LaFleur has a quarterback who will take orders, run the offense and avoid some of the combativeness that plagued the Green Bay offense a year ago.

Starting the season on the road against a division rival is a difficult ask, but Green Bay is the more talented team – on defense, in particular – and has had plenty of reps against Justin Fields over the last two seasons. The decision to retain DC Joe Barry remains a questionable one, but Barry's defense held the Bears to 29 total points in two matchups a year ago.

Chicago's offensive personnel is improved, and Soldier Field will be salivating at the long-awaited chance to face a non-Rodgers Packers offense, but I like Green Bay to lean heavily on its offensive line and ground game to preserve a close win on the road. Based on how Wednesday's practice report shaped up, they might have no choice.

The pick: Packers 20 - Bears 17

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Game 1 of the Sean Payton Era begins in Denver, where the Broncos are 32-8 straight up in September over the last 20 years. Payton has spent much of the last few months calling Nathaniel Hackett a fraud and telling his quarterback to just chill out, man. Burned bridges be damned, Payton represents the biggest year-over-year upgrade at head coach in the NFL. Even if you, like me, believe peak Russell Wilson is never coming back, the Broncos still have the decided talent advantage over a Vegas roster with holes all over the defense.

I don't like either of these teams to mount much of a challenge to Kansas City or Los Angeles out West, but the Broncos' defense – quietly one of the best in the NFL for the first three-quarters of last season – should be able to control this game. Give me Denver to grind out a wow, that was pretty gross but we'll take it victory at home.

The pick: Broncos 19 - Raiders 14

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0)

When these teams met in Week 14 a year ago, we didn't get the offensive fireworks we expected, as neither team put up a single point in the first quarter. The Chargers ultimately pulled out a 23-17 victory, holding Tua Tagovailoa to just 145 yards on 10-of-28 passing. A fully healthy Tua should be better this time around, and I'm ready to dive head-first into the second-highest total (51.0) of the weekend. 

Both of these offenses could be top-five units this season, and I'm especially high on a Chargers bounceback with new OC Kellen Moore at the helm. Joe Lombardi managed to turn Justin Herbert into late-career Drew Brees last season – in his defense, Herbert was banged up for much of the year – but I think we see a much more aggressive version of Herbert in 2023. And we'll need to see it right way in order for the Chargers to keep up with the high-powered Dolphins. 

While I have my questions about the long-term viability of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams – the NFL's version of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George – they're healthy and ready to go for Week 1, so I'll ride with the Chargers to outscore Miami and cover the 3.0 points at home.

The pick: Chargers 34 - Dolphins 30

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.0) at New England Patriots

Taking the Pats to win outright has become a semi-trendy pick this week, but I can't quite get there. Sure, Jalen Hurts has never faced a Bill Belichick defense; and, yes, you're correct to point out that the Pats are no longer allowing a defensive coordinator to run the offense. But I can't ignore the overall talent gap between these two offenses. Philly has an excellent offensive line, a top-five quarterback, arguably the best receiver duo in the league, a Pro-Bowl-caliber tight end and a stable of running backs for new OC Brian Johnson to choose from.

The Pats' defense is stout enough to make things difficult on Hurts, but the Eagles' offense carries an air of inevitability. Over the course of 60 minutes, I don't trust the Pats' offense to do enough to keep up. Eagles win and cover in Foxboro.

The pick: Eagles 26 - Patriots 20

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)

We're still awaiting definitive news on Cooper Kupp's status, but at this point I'm not expecting him to be available for Week 1. It's usually not a great sign when the absence of one receiver feels like it could sink an entire offense, but that's exactly how I feel about the Rams' house-of-cards roster construction.

Editor's note: The Rams have officially ruled out Kupp for Week 1. Sean McVay also noted that there's "a possibility" Kupp could be placed on IR.

Beyond Kupp is a wasteland pass-catchers for Matthew Stafford, who will be making his first appearance since Week 11 of last season. In theory, the Rams should be able to move the ball on the ground against Seattle, but that won't be enough to keep up with the Seahawks' offense. Not to mention, the Rams' defense is loaded with youth and inexperience. I double-dog dare you to name one starter outside of Aaron Donald.

In one of my favorite picks of the week, I'll ride with Seattle to win its ninth straight home opener SU and move to 7-2 ATS in those games.

The pick: Seahawks 28 - Rams 17

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) at New York Giants

The Giants were one of the surprise teams of 2022 and will look to pick up where they left off as a team that seemingly always found a way to keep games close. After jumping out to a 6-1 start a year ago, New York's early-season schedule isn't quite so friendly this time around. Week 1 brings the first of several early-season landmines. The Giants will face Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami and Buffalo in five of their first six games.

With that in mind, it's extra-important for the Giants to get off to a positive start. The question is whether they can move the ball through the air on a Dallas defense that held Daniel Jones to 189.5 yards per game (and forced a pick) in two meetings last season. The addition of Darren Waller brings a much-needed punch to the pass-catching group, but New York didn't do much to address one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the league.

While I think they can hang around and make this a close game, I lean toward Dallas' front seven keeping Jones in the pocket and eventually forcing an impactful mistake that seals the win. By the way, Jones is just 1-10 SU and 5-6 ATS in his career in primetime games.

This feels like a three-point game to me, but lord knows we don't pick pushes here. I'll take Dallas to cover and give McCarthy his first Week 1 outright victory in four tries.

The pick: Cowboys 24 - Giants 20

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets

Hats off to the NFL scheduling department. What a banger of a Monday Night opener. We tend to put less emphasis on these early-season matchups, but this is a huge divisional game for both teams in what projects to be an extremely tight AFC East. Both teams face difficult schedules, but the Bills' is a bit softer early on, whereas the Jets face the Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs and Eagles in four of their next five matchups.

Obviously, the Jets are looking to make a statement in Aaron Rodgers' debut. Going from Zach Wilson/Mike White/Chris Streveler to even late-career Rodgers is a massive leap, but I'm of the believe that this team will need some time to coalesce. Garrett Wilson could very well be Rodgers' new Davante Adams, but outside of Wilson, I don't love the weapons in the passing game, and the offensive line remains a huge question mark.

On the other side, the Bills are everyone's regression candidate, but even a slight step back would still place Buffalo as one of the most complete teams in the AFC. While the Jets have home field advantage in what should be a wild environment, I'll lean on Josh Allen and Buffalo's continuity to make a Week 1 statement, just as the Bills did in Los Angeles a year ago.

The pick: Bills 27 - Jets 21