Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Predictions for Every NFL Week 8 Game

Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Beating the Book!

There's no way around it: Week 7 was my single worst week since I began picking NFL games. To say it was a brutal week is an understatement. Everything that could've gone wrong, went wrong, starting with the Saints, who rallied back after another sluggish start Thursday night only to stall out near the goal line with a chance to tie (or win) the game late. Perhaps we should've taken that as a sign of things to come.

On Sunday, all hell broke loose. The Browns – our best bet – gave up 38 points to Gardner Minshew. Cleveland did win the game, but a failed two-point conversion late in the fourth quarter sunk any hope of a cover. The Lions no-showed at Baltimore (just a straight-up bad pick by me), the Bills laid another egg against an awful Pats team and the Raiders didn't even come close to hanging tough against the Tyson Bagent-led Bears – Tyson Bagent! 

The late window wasn't any kinder to us, as the Rams blew a game to the Steelers, the Packers definitively proved that they're a bottom-five team, and the Chargers completely lost control in the second half after going score-for-score with Kansas City through two quarters.

All in all, a horrendous week and easily my lowest point since I began writing this column. If there's anything remotely positive to take away, it's that we have nowhere to go but up from here (I think). Misery does love company, and from the looks of things it was a rough week for a good chunk of NFL bettors.

Anyway, we're left with no choice but to move on and focus on Week 8, where all 32 teams are back in action after a six-team bye in Week 7. The board is a healthy mix of tight spreads and big favorites, though no team is favored by double-digits. Even after falling flat against Philly on Sunday night, the Dolphins are 9.5-point favorites over the Pats at home – the biggest number of the week. The Bills, Chargers, Lions, Chiefs and Ravens are close behind, each favored by 8.0 or 8.5 points.

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 2-11 ATS; 4-9 SU; best bet lost (CLE -2.0)

On the season: 44-59-3 ATS, 60-46 SU; 4-3 best bet

Best calls of Week 7:

• I like the Eagles to get back to running the ball, control the clock and force Tagovailoa to beat them through the air.
• Arizona continues to be a frisky opponent on a weekly basis, but the cracks in the foundation – particularly on defense – are starting to show. Arizona is down to 31st in defensive EPA (thank you, Broncos), 32nd in pressure rate, and 27th in third down conversion rate. I like this as a get-right spot for Smith and the Seattle offense. 

Worst calls of Week 7:

• Literally every other game
   

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Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

We begin with two teams headed in the wrong direction. Even though the Bills were able to eek out a win over the Giants in Week 6, they've now had three straight letdown games. Last week's against the Pats was the most concerning yet, as Mac Jones was kept clean and completed 20-of-25 passes for 272 yards. Sloppy play continues to plague Buffalo, and Josh Allen will carry a five-game turnover streak into Thursday Night.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay built some momentum before its Week 5 bye but has since mustered just 19 points in depressing losses to the Lions and Falcons. Had Desmond Ridder not lost two fumbles at the goal line, Atlanta's 16-13 win would've been considerably more lopsided.

I don't have a strong read on this game whatsoever, but it sure feels like 8.5 points is a lot for the Bills to be giving under any circumstance right now. Even so, the Bills are a team that's still capable of blowing out bad offenses like Tampa Bay. I'll put my faith in Josh Allen to get his act together at home against a Bucs team that feels like it's rapidly losing steam after a surprising start.

The pick: Bills 30 – Buccaneers 20

Sunday Early Games

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (+3.0)

Both teams are coming off of a Week 7 bye, and Carolina is still seeking win No. 1 of the Bryce Young era. On the other side, C.J. Stroud, who you may recall went one pick after Young, has hit the ground running and is playing well above typical rookie QB standards.

On balance, Houston has looked like the vastly better team thus far, with the Stroud-led air attack ranking in the top five in passing EPA thus far. But I do think the Texans' lack of a running game is going to catch up to them at some point. I like Carolina to keep this game close, but Houston is able to do just enough to hold off a late rally to win.

The pick: Texans 23 – Panthers 21

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Dallas is off a bye and gets the Rams at home following an ugly loss to the somehow 4-2 Steelers. Dallas built a bit of momentum with a pre-bye win over the Chargers, though I'm not sure that's exactly a feather-in-the-cap type of victory based on what we've seen from LA recently.

While the Rams' defense showed some concerning cracks against a bad Steelers offense on Sunday, I'm still relatively high on this team. Pittsburgh was able to lock up Cooper Kupp last week, but the emergence of Puka Nacua has provided Matthew Stafford with a high-level pivot. You never know exactly which version of the Rams is going to show up in a given week, but the same can be said for Dallas.

Give me the Cowboys to win at home, but I'll take the Rams to cover the 6.5-point spread.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Rams 23

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (+1.0)

The Vikings showed plenty of signs of life in what I thought would be a tough spot catching the 49ers off of a loss Monday night. But Minnesota's defense showed up and Kirk Cousins proved that he doesn't need Justin Jefferson to lead a productive passing attack.

Minnesota now catches the Packers at their lowest point in a long time. An extra week to prepare and the return of Aaron Jones weren't enough to solve any of Green Bay's offensive woes, and we're suddenly verging on panic territory for Jordan Love and a banged-up offensive line. Coming into Week 8, the Packers have scored six total points in their last four first halves. On the other side of the ball, they'll be without Eric Stokes and Darnell Savage, who were both placed on IR this week. 

Beating the Niners aside, I'm still not sold that Minnesota is anything better than a .500 team at best, but it's hard to find a reason to back the Packers here.

The pick: Vikings 21 – Packers 17

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

The look-ahead was Saints -1.5, but it's since flipped in favor of the Colts. Right off the bat, we're going to go ahead and make this the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, although it feels like every game could be in that basket right now after last week's performance. We know Gardner Minshew is going to be a roller-coaster experience week-to-week. He sunk the Colts with four turnovers against the Jaguars, but Indy nearly survived four more turnovers (three fumbles and a pick) on Sunday against the Browns.

Despite the loss, it feels like Indy is picking up steam. Thus far, they're the only team to do that to the vaunted Browns' defense. We'll see how much that carries over against another good unit in New Orleans, but I'm inclined to ride with the home team.

Outside of their 34-0 win over the Patriots, New Orleans has victories over the Panthers (by three) and the Titans (by one). Save for that Pats game, they've scored 16, 20, 17, 9, 13 and 24 points, respectively.

The pick: Colts 23 – Saints 21

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)

Over the past week, both of these teams have become more difficult to evaluate. With another opportunity to bank a win over an elite team, Miami fell flat against the Eagles. The Pats, meanwhile, picked themselves up off the mat and took down the Bills as 9.0-point dogs.

This is a big spot for New England to attempt to salvage its season, but it also lines up as a nice bounceback game for the Dolphins, who are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of more than 7.0. Miami has also covered six consecutive games against New England.

I don't feel great about it, but I lean toward the Dolphins to get their offense back on track. In three home games this season, Miami has put up 70, 31 and 42 points. Keep an eye on the injury report before locking anything in, however. Neither Tyreek Hill nor Raheem Mostert practiced Wednesday, and it sounds like there's a real chance that Hill could miss this game.

If Hill plays, give me the Dolphins to win and cover. If he's out, Dolphins will win, but Pats cover.

The pick: Dolphins 34 – Patriots 21 (with Hill); Dolphins 27 – Patriots 21 (without Hill)

New York Jets at New York Giants (+3.0)

We're set up for quite the slugfest at MetLife, as this game carries a total of 36.5 – somehow that's not the lowest number on this slate (more on that below). For a number of reasons, this feels like it could be one of those 9-to-6 type of games. For one, the Giants' defense has looked much better in recent weeks, but on the other side Saquon Barkley, Darren Waller, Andrew Thomas and Daniel Jones are each banged up to varying degrees.

Barkley and Thomas are expected to play Sunday, but keep an eye on Jones and Waller. Jones did not practice Wednesday and is yet to be fully cleared for contact, so chances are we're looking at another Tyrod Taylor start.

The Jets come in off of a bye and will be looking to push their winning streak up to three games. Zach Wilson wasn't the reason New York banked wins over Denver and Philly, but he also didn't hurt the Jets, committing only one turnover (a bad pick against Denver) in those two victories.

This is essentially a neutral-site game, so I understand why the Jets are up to 3.0-point favorites. I liked it more at 2.5 earlier this week, but we'll side with the Jets' defense to bring home an ugly, burn-the-tapes win.

The pick: Jets 17 – Giants 13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

This line is up to Jags -2.5, up a full point from where it sat prior to Week 7. The masses are starting to believe in this Jacksonville team, which ripped off its fourth win in 19 days by hanging on for dear life against the Saints on Thursday night. Turnovers and questionable play-calling continue to hang over the Jags, however, and the Steelers are exactly the type of team that can make Jacksonville pay in ways New Orleans could not.

Offensively, Pittsburgh showed a bit of progress last week against the Rams, but it's the defense the Jags should be concerned with. Travis Etienne is a top-five fantasy back on the season, but the Jaguars are down to 30th in rushing EPA. Maybe it's my inner pessimistic Jags fan taking over, but with the bye week on the horizon, I think the schedule finally catches up to the Jaguars here. 

The pick: Steelers 24 – Jaguars 23

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (+3.0)

I mentioned above that the Jets-Giants total (36.5) was somehow not the lowest on the slate. Well, here's why. Buckle up for Falcons-Titans, baby, with a total sitting at 36.0. My goodness. 

It's hard to argue with the numbers. The Titans are putting up only 17.3 points per game, while the Falcons sit even lower at 16.4. Tennessee has just eight total touchdowns in six games – tied with the Giants for the fewest in the NFL. To make matters worse, Tennessee is expected to be without Ryan Tannehill (ankle). The general belief is that rookie Will Levis will get the start, but Mike Vrabel continues to insist that both Levis and Malik Willis will see snaps. Either way, not good.

It pains me to take the Falcons under any circumstance. They've burned us more than any team thus far. I can assure you it has nothing to do with Desmond Ridder or a fraudulent running game that ranks 27th in EPA. We're backing the Atlanta defense to limit Levis/Willis, force a turnover or two and lead the way to a low-scoring win. Tennessee covers, however.

The pick: Falcons 19 – Titans 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (+6.5)

I know this was a trip-up spot for the Eagles last year, and nearly again in Week 4, but I don't see Washington putting up that level of fight twice in a four-week span. Sam Howell flashed some encouraging signs early on, and he's still early in his career, but the week-to-week variance is concerning.

To Howell's credit, he's been sacked at least five times in five straight games. That's not an encouraging sign against an Eagles defense that leads the NFL in pressures and picked up more confidence last week against Miami. If Jalen Hurts can clean up the careless turnovers (PHI has 7 TOs to 1 TO forced in the last three games), the Eagles should be able to cruise to 7-1.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Commanders 17

Sunday Afternoon Games

Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

The Browns aren't playing around this week, having already announced that it'll be P.J. Walker under center as Deshaun Watson focuses on rehabbing his shoulder. While Walker has been a bit shaky the last two weeks, he's looked better than the brief glimpse we saw of Watson early against Indianapolis. The Browns' defense completely falling apart was arguably the biggest stunner of Week 7, but Myles Garrett and Co. will be looking to restore their reputation this Sunday.

Seattle won and covered against Arizona last week, but it wasn't pretty. The Seahawks had only two red zone drives and did their best to give the game away with back-to-back turnovers in the second half. The hope is that DK Metcalf is back in the mix, but he was limited at practice Wednesday so it's no guarantee. 

At its core, I think Seattle is a good team that should be able to win this game against a backup QB. But the turnovers and inconsistency from Geno Smith are a concern – as is the offensive line. We'll take the points with the Browns. 

The pick: Seahawks 23 – Browns 21

Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals (+8.0)

Arizona began the year by covering three straight, including a SU win over the Cowboys in Week 3. Since then, the wheels have started to come off, especially on defense. Arizona ranks 30th in defensive EPA, surrendering 5.7 yards per play and allowing opponents to score on 46.5 percent of offensive drives. They've now failed to cover four in a row and are once again getting more than a touchdown. 

We want to be wary of overvaluing the Ravens after last week's beatdown against Detroit, but this shouldn't be a trip-up spot for an offense that just put up 500+ yards on the Lions.

The pick: Ravens 30 – Cardinals 20

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+7.5)

It feels like we go through the same song and dance every year trying to find reasons why Kansas City isn't the best team in the AFC. But with the Bills and Dolphins fading in recent weeks, the Chiefs once again look like the kingpin and Super Bowl favorite.

This will be the second meeting in three weeks between these division rivals, with Kansas City seeking its 15th straight win in the series. The Chiefs rolled over the Chargers last week and finally seem to have their passing game humming. Denver remains the league's worst defense, but they've made some strides the last two weeks. Even so, I don't see this is a good spot for Denver. If the Broncos were going to snap the streak, they had their chance in Week 6 when Kansas City managed only 19 points.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Broncos 17

Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.0)

This number swiftly dropped from 5.5 to 4.0 with the news that Brock Purdy entered concussion protocol following Monday night's loss to the Vikings. He hasn't been officially ruled out, but at this point a Sam Darnold spot start is a real possibility. Going from Purdy to Darnold may not be much of a downgrade, but it's certainly an obstacle for a Niners team that's quickly gone from Can anyone beat them? to back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Minnesota. 

San Francisco will again be without Deebo Samuel, but there's hope that Trent Williams can get back in the mix. Returning home after a rough, two-week road trip should help the Niners, but even before the Purdy news I liked this spot for the Bengals off of a bye to continue their ascension up the AFC standings. 

The pick: 49ers 27 – Bengals 24

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)

I know. The Chargers might be bad. We had them last week to cover 5.5 against the Chiefs and they couldn't get it done. Justin Herbert looks rattled and the defense has entered borderline-disaster territory. The Chargers are 19th in EPA against the run – very good, by their standards – but down to 30th against the pass. A defensive line with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack is generating pressure on only 18.6% of dropbacks.

In come the Chicago Bears fresh off of a dominating win over the Raiders. Tyson Bagent wasn't asked to carry the offense, but he took care of the ball and didn't do anything to jeopardize the Bears' fate. Going on the road against Herbert is a completely different task, however. The Chargers might be a bad team, but they're still an elite offense, and the Bears are going to need to find ways to keep up. That means asking Bagent to do more than he has the last two weeks. 

This is a bigger number than I'd like for the NFL's least-trustworthy team, but as long as the defense is not a complete catastrophe, the Chargers should be able to push for a double-digit win. Brandon Staley's job might depend on it.

The pick: Chargers 27 – Bears 17

Monday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-8.0)

Losing The Jeff Saturday Game last season will be tough to top, but the Raiders getting blown off the field by the Tyson Bagent Bears last week was about as embarrassing as it gets. Starting Brian Hoyer was a disastrous decision, and by the time Aidan O'Connell entered the game (in Hoyer's defense, O'Connell also threw a pick) it was too late for the Raiders to mount any sort of comeback.

Meanwhile, Detroit also got smacked around last week, but at least it was by a respectable team in the Ravens. Still, it was shocking to see Detroit struggle to that degree after four straight dominant wins over Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay. Returning home after a pair of road games should be a big boost for Detroit, which hopes to get David Montgomery back in the mix.

With Jimmy Garoppolo poised to return for Vegas, I actually think this will be a competitive game, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders hang around and cover. But I have more faith in the Lions regrouping on defense and atoning for last week's disaster. While this will be a heavily public pick – that got us into trouble last week – we're taking the Lions.

The pick: Lions 33 – Raiders 20