Beating the Book: Lions Roll, Chargers Win At Lambeau + Full NFL Week 11 ATS Picks

It's time for an NFL Week 11 edition of Beating the Book! As I get older, it feels like each NFL season goes progressively faster, so I guess it makes sense that this one, in particular, has been a blur. Just eight weeks stand between us and the start of the playoffs. 

The way I see it, that's plenty of time to make up for some early season setbacks and claw our way back over .500. Since our disastrous Week 7 (2-11 ATS), which will henceforth be known as simply The Week, we've picked ourselves up, dusted ourselves off and posted a combined 27-15-2 mark over the last three weeks. The positive momentum is palpable, but we're still three games under .500 on the year, so this is certainly not a time to rest on our minimal laurels.

Turning to the Week 11 board, we once again have 14 games on the slate, as the Falcons, Colts, Patriots and Saints take their byes. The first thing that jumps out is the elevated number of big spreads – a stark contrast to the last few weeks, when the board was littered with tight games.

As of publication, four games carry a double-digit spread, and three more teams – Detroit, Jacksonville and Buffalo – are favored by at least six points. The Dolphins are the biggest favorites of the week, giving 13.5 points to the Raiders in Miami. The 49ers (-11.5) and Commanders (-10.0) are also big home favorites, while the Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites on the road at Carolina.

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 8-5-1 ATS; 8-6 SU; best bet won (PIT -3.0)

On the season: 71-74-5 ATS, 88-62 SU; 7-3 best bet

Best calls of Week 10:

• The Jags lead the NFL with 18 takeaways, but they tend to commit two or three of their own each week. With an extra week to prepare, I think we see a better, more in-control version of Brock Purdy. As a card-carrying Jags' fan I need to caution that this is a classic hedging my mental health pick, but I do think this is the spot where the 49ers bounce back.
• The Commanders, meanwhile, are an enigma from week to week, but they tend to play up – or down – to their competition. Seattle is the better team and should be able to take care of business at home, but 6.0 points is too big of a number for me – especially considering Washington is 4-0 ATS as a road dog this season.

Worst calls of Week 10:

• I'm not ready to trust this Broncos team – even after a convincing win over Kansas City. Denver hangs tough and Josh Allen extends his interception streak to six games, but the Bills get back on track and cover at home.
• C.J. Stroud does enough to make this a fun, back-and-forth game, but Cincinnati is rolling right now. We're not picking against Joe Burrow at home.

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Thursday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

After an underwhelming, to put it nicely, primetime slate in Week 10, we kick off the week with a massive game in the AFC North. Both teams are coming off of crushing losses, though the Ravens are still sitting atop the division.

With both teams at full strength, I would lean toward the Bengals – even on the road. But Cincy will be without Tee Higgins again, while Sam Hubbard will also sit out. That's big massive blow for a defense that just allowed 544 yards to Houston last week – 188 of which came on the ground. However, the Bengals got some unexpected news Wednesday: Trey Hendrickson will be available.

Even so, you have to wonder just how healthy Hendrickson will be. If he's not at 100 percent, the Bengals will be vulnerable.

Chances are, it won't be pretty, but we're backing the Ravens to win and cover at home.

The pick: Ravens 27 - Bengals 21 

Sunday Early Games

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (+10.5)

Last week's win over the Giants went, well, about as expected for Dallas, which cruised to a 49-17 victory, easily covering the 16.5-point spread. For the second straight week, the Cowboys are a double-digit favorite, this time on the road at Carolina. The Panthers' offense seemed to hit rock-bottom last Thursday against Chicago, and this is not the opponent they want to see on the schedule.

Dallas is a different team away from home, but even if they commit some mistakes it's hard to imagine Carolina doing enough to truly threaten.

The pick: Cowboys 31 – Panthers 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5)

In the process of writing up this game, the Browns not only announced that Deshaun Watson is done for the season but confirmed that it will be Dorian Thompson-Robinson – not PJ Walker – getting the start this week. 

After the Watson news, the line moved from Browns -4.0 to Browns -2.0, and it's now made its way down to Cleveland -1.5. The total has also dropped to a ghastly 33.5. Thirty-three-and-a-half.

Clearly, this is a game the Browns feel they can win with their defense, but it's difficult to erase the memory of Thompson-Robinson throwing for 121 yards and three picks against Baltimore in Week 3. On the Steelers' side, they were able to get the running game going last week against Green Bay, but to me that's more about the Packers being the worst-coached defense in the NFL, rather than Pittsburgh magically unlocking Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

This game is bound to be extremely, extremely ugly. Even at full strength, that was going to be the case. It's impossible to get a firm read either way, but we'll side with the Cleveland defense at home to force a couple of turnovers and hold off the usual, second-half Steelers rally.

The pick: Browns 17 – Steelers 14

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-9.0)

This number was up to 10.5 earlier in the week but has since sunk under the key number after the Bears confirmed that Justin Fields will, indeed, make his return to action. While that's a good thing for Chicago, Fields coming off of a lengthy injury absence still presents plenty of variance. Chicago looked fairly respectable during the Bagent Era, but they also took advantage of soft matchups against Carolina and Las Vegas. This game at Detroit is anything but that.

The Lions' defense showed some concerning cracks last week against the Chargers, but the offense had zero issues moving the ball up and down the field at will, ripping off huge chunk play after huge chunk play in the process. Chicago has gradually improved on defense throughout the season, but I love this spot for Detroit with the number sitting under 10.0. Chicago is 3-16 against the number in its last 19 NFC North games.

The pick: Lions 31 – Bears 17

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers (+3.0)

We made Steelers -3.0 our best bet last week, and while we needed a botched extra-point to get there, we will absolutely take it. Those are exactly the kind of breaks it feels like the Steelers are getting on a weekly basis this season. On the contrary, the Packers don't seem to be getting many of those same breaks, but that's because this is a young, not-all-that-talented team that's as poorly coached on defense as any in the league. 

Green Bay did show some progress on offense last week, however. Jordan Love was just 21-of-40, but he generated a number of chunk plays that have been notably absent from this offense. Love did toss two picks, but one was essentially a desperation heave on the Packers' final play from scrimmage. Overall, it was arguably Love's best game of the year.

The question is: do we trust the Packers to keep up in what could be a shootout against a Chargers offense that scored a touchdown on five straight drives in Week 10 against Detroit? The short answer: No, I do not. The Chargers' defense may be a mess week-to-week, but it should be well-equipped to slow down a Love-led attack. If Green Bay can get Aaron Jones going, this could get interesting, but I like the Chargers to go into Lambeau Field and get a win to hang on in the AFC playoff race.

The pick: Chargers 27 – Packers 20

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-5.0)

Against all odds, this is one of the most intriguing games on the Week 11 slate. Coming off of a massive win in Cincinnati, Houston is looking to keep the momentum rolling and officially put the Jaguars on notice in the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have Kyler Murray back and were able to rally for an improbable yet predictable, win over Atlanta last week.

Most importantly, Murray looked like himself and did not show any notable side effects of the torn ACL that cost him nearly an entire calendar year. Still, Arizona has one of the least-talented rosters in the league, and a shaky defense, so going up against the red-hot C.J. Stroud is a much different test than the Big Two of Taylor Heinicke/Desmond Ridder.

I do think Arizona is able to hang around and make this a game, but the Texans proved last week that they're more dangerous than the typical fun, young team. If Houston can again move the ball on the ground, I like the Texans to win and cover at home.

The pick: Texans 24 – Cardinals 17

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)

Last week, I made it very clear that I was going with a full mental-health hedge against the Jaguars, and boy did it pay off. We loved the Niners -3.0 enough to use it in the Circa Million contest, and it was clear from about the fifth play of the game that it was going to be a winner.

While I was bracing for a Jacksonville letdown, the degree to which the Niners dominated the Jags has to be concerning. Jacksonville's offense has been a letdown all season, and Sunday was a reminder that the Jaguars are still a tier or two below the truly elite teams in the NFL.

Remaining home to face the fourth-place Titans should be a good bounceback spot, but the Jags have some major issues to shore up – first and foremost, finding a way to unlock Calvin Ridley and the downfield passing game. Play-caller Press Taylor has been under fire all season, and his seat has never been hotter after last week's disaster. Ben Solak of The Ringer wrote a great piece this week digging in on the Jags' – and Taylor's – struggles:

While I'm down on the Jags, part of the reason this should be a good spot is the regression of Will Levis after his four-touchdown debut. Over the last two games, Levis has been held touchdown-less with a pair of INTs in losses to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. He's still giving Tennessee a spark, but the Atlanta game is looking more like a major outlier.

We'll take the Jags to win the game at home, assuming they can find a way to take care of the ball (seven turnovers in the last two games), but the Titans get the cover.

The pick: Jaguars 24 – Titans 20

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

Coming out of their bye week, the Dolphins get a matchup with the red-hot Las Vegas Raiders, winners of two straight since parting ways with their head coach, GM, offensive coordinator and starting quarterback. It's clear that firing Josh McDaniels, in particular, was the right move, but how much stock can we put into wins over the Giants and Jets? 

Well, we're about to find out. Going on the road to Miami will be an incredibly difficult test for Vegas, which ranks 21st in defensive EPA and 27th against the run. The Dolphins should be back at full strength and may even get De'Von Achane back from IR this week.

Miami has been tripped up against elite opponents, but they've more than taken care of business against the average-to-below average teams – particularly at home. We'll roll with Miami to put an abrupt end to the post-McDaniels-firing honeymoon for the Raiders.

The pick: Dolphins 37 – Raiders 20

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-9.5)

The Commanders are a respectable bunch, but it takes an extreme situation for this team to be a 10-point favorite against anyone. That's exactly what we have here, as Washington welcomes in Tommy DeVito and a Giants team that already feels like it's playing out the string on a lost season. Last week in Dallas was a nightmare matchup for the Giants, who lost Daniel Jones for the season in Week 9. New York was out-gained 640 to 172 by the Cowboys, and it would've been worse had Dallas not pulled its starters and allowed two late scoring drives.

I'm trying to be careful not to completely write off the Giants – they did beat Washington straight up earlier this season – but consistently moving the ball with Tommy DeVito simply may not be realistic. As long as the Commanders don't have another disaster game on offense, they should be able to handle business.

The pick: Commanders 27 – Giants 15

Sunday Afternoon Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)

The Niners dropped three straight heading into their Week 9 bye but issued a stern reminder as to just how dominant this team can be when it's at full strength. Deebo Samuel may not be the most productive player in the San Francisco offense, but his presence seems to unlock everyone else.

After a dominant win in Jacksonville, the Niners head back home and welcome in a Bucs team that just snapped a four-game skid win a victory over Tennessee. Tampa Bay has shown flashes of a (slightly) improved running game, but my guess is that it all comes crashing down against the Niners' defense. If this turns into a "Baker, it's all on you" game, the Bucs will be in trouble. 

We're taking the Niners to continue the trend of double-digit favorites covering at home this season (10-0 SU; 8-2 ATS, with the Bills responsible for both losses). The Niners are also 16-3 ATS in their last 19 home games.

The pick: 49ers 34 – Buccaneers 17

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7.0)

Well, here we go again with the Buffalo Bills, who hit rock-bottom on Monday night and responded by firing their offensive coordinator. It's officially time to panic in Buffalo, especially since the Bills still have games against the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers and Dolphins on their schedule.

While Buffalo still shows flashes of the elite offense we know it to be, the Bills' confidence seems to be shook, and their penchant for untimely turnovers came back to bite them in the worst way Monday night. Even so, the underlying numbers strongly suggest this is still a top-flight unit.

Nevertheless, the Bills have now failed to cover six in a row since starting the year 3-1 ATS. Perhaps the shakeup at OC will spark something, but this is a tough spot to ask the offense to kick into high-gear against a stout New York defense.

The Bills do have the benefit of playing Zach Wilson, so I don't think they lose straight up, but we can't trust the Bills to give seven points right now – even at home.

The pick: Bills 23 – Jets 17

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+1.0)

Interesting game here in the NFC West. The Rams are coming out of a much-needed bye and should get Matthew Stafford back. That's a major plus, but it's worth noting that Stafford had begun to decline in the weeks before his latest injury. Still, he's a massive upgrade over Brett Rypien, who shepherded a disaster of an offensive performance against Green Bay in Week 9.

On the other side, Seattle escaped by the skin of its teeth for the second time in three weeks, needing a last-second field goal to beat the Commanders after giving up a late touchdown. The Seahawks' ground game has fallen off a bit of late, and they've been a disaster on third downs (31.5% conversion rate) and in the red zone (48.5%), though some of that can be attributed to back-to-back tough matchups against Cleveland and Baltimore.

The Rams got the best of Seattle in Week 1, but with what could be a limited version of Stafford, I like the Seahawks to get their passing game revved up and snap a six-game ATS losing streak to Sean McVay.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – Rams 21

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2.0)

It took all the way until Sunday night, but here we have our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. This is one of those of course these teams are playing each other matchups – much like last week's Atlanta-Arizona game.

The Vikings are suddenly very much back in the playoff mix in the NFC and are currently in the driver's seat for a Wild Card spot. The addition of Josh Dobbs has provided a massive spark, and if Justin Jefferson returns this week, the offense will be even more dangerous. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos have beaten the Chiefs and Bills in consecutive games, forcing nine turnovers in that span. The high turnover rate can't continue, however, and it's worth noting that Denver has failed to reach 200 yards passing in five straight games. Minnesota ranks sixth in rush defense EPA, so the Broncos will need to get more out of Russell Wilson.

Ultimately, this should be a really fun, back-and-forth game. Denver has the home-field advantage, but has already found a new level of confidence with Dobbs at the helm. If Jefferson makes his return, the Vikings win this one outright.

The pick: Vikings 21 – Broncos 19

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

We finish out the week with a Super Bowl rematch between two teams coming out of a bye. Kansas City has home field, but the Chiefs are still dodging questions about an offense that's scored under 25 points in four of its last six games.

After a disastrous, five-turnover performance against Denver in Week 8, Kansas City held on to beat Miami in Germany, but it required a defensive touchdown to offset an otherwise underwhelming performance. Outside of two touchdown drives, the Chiefs punted six times and lost a key fumble in the third quarter.

If the KC offense is going to wake up, this would be the spot for it to happen. The Eagles have questions of their own but still rank fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA and first in scoring percentage. Turnovers have plagued the Eagles all season, but they're coming off of a clean win over Dallas in Week 9. Even so, Philly was significantly out-gained for the second straight week.

For a number of reasons, this is a toss-up game between two of the best teams in the NFL. Both teams need the win for seeding purposes, and while one could argue Philly may be more motivated after what happened in February, I'm not sure that's something we can quantify and apply to our process.

I give an ever-so-slight lean to the Eagles – partially because they're getting points (even if it's only 2.5), and partially because I trust their offense to pick its spots more consistently against a blitz-happy KC defense.

While fully accepting that we're never going to feel good betting against Patrick Mahomes, the Eagles with the points is our play.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Chiefs 24