Beating the Book: Packers, Jaguars Grab Playoff Spots, Eagles Clinch 1-Seed + Full NFL Week 18 ATS Picks

Welcome to the Week 18 edition of Beating the Book.

With the final week of the season proceeding as scheduled – our prayers and positive thoughts continue to be with Damar Hamlin – it's time to dig into the 16-game, two-day slate.

We're officially done with Thursday Night games for this season – Cowboys-Titans was an appropriate send-off – but we have a pair of Saturday games, including what some are calling the biggest game in Jaguars regular season history in the night window.

The remaining 28 teams all play on Sunday, with the games divided up between the regular three windows. As usual, the most meaningful games – whether it be for seeding or playoff qualification – are divided up relatively evenly between the time slots. Bills-Patriots, Ravens-Bengals, Jets-Dolphins and Browns-Steelers are the biggest matchups in the early window, while Giants-Eagles, Cowboys-Commanders and Cardinals-49ers all kick off in the late-afternoon with the NFC playoff seeds far from decided. 

At this point in the season, motivation and potential for players resting often has a major impact on the lines. That's the case in several games, including Giants-Eagles and Cardinals-49ers. In both cases, the home team is a 14.0-point favorite. 

Before we fully dive in on the Week 18 slate, let's take our customary look back at the best and (mostly) worst calls from my Week 17 picks.

Last week: 5-10 ATS; 9-6 straight up; best bet lost (Eagles -6.5 vs. Saints)

On the season: 115-133-7 ATS; 163-90-2 straight up; 6-11 best bets

Best calls of Week 17: 

• In one of the all-time meaningless games in NFL history, I'll take Arizona to cover but Ridder to notch his first NFL victory.
• The defense did have plenty of trouble corralling Justin Fields back in Week 10 – a come-from-behind 31-30 win for Detroit – but with this game being played in Detroit, I don't see Chicago's offense keeping up.

Worst calls of Week 17:

• While New Orleans gets some credit for pulling off a come-from-behind road win in brutal conditions last week, the Saints are ultimately not a good football team. Whether it's Hurts or Minshew, I like the Eagles to sense the moment and take care of business to lock up the top seed in the NFC.
• For better for worse, we're rolling with Darnold to summon his inner Jake Delhomme and lead Carolina to an outright win on the road.
• For the sake of watchability, I'm absolutely rooting for Green Bay to get into the playoffs over Washington or Detroit, but I think the Packers' luck runs out here.

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via BetMGM, as of Wednesday at Noon ET. If you don't have a BetMGM account yet, you can use this BetMGM bonus code for a generous welcome bonus.

Saturday Games

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

With another unconvincing win over Denver last week, the Chiefs have now won nine of their last 10 games, but they've covered only three of those (SF, JAX, SEA). We tend to be over-critical of great teams, and while Kansas City deserves credit for (likely) getting the 1-seed in the AFC, the Chiefs haven't looked close to dominant since their Oct. 23 decimation of the 49ers.

Meanwhile, the Raiders suddenly have some life after Jarrett Stidham's performance last week against the NFL's best defense, but he'll need to prove he can do it again if the eliminated Raiders have any chance to hang in with a Chiefs team playing with real motivation.

Kansas City has proven to be mistake-prone enough to allow bad teams to hang around of late, but given the significance of this game for seeding, I'll put my trust in Patrick Mahomes.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Raiders 17

Tennessee Titans (+6.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Saturday night brings us The Grandaddy of Them All. Titans. Jaguars. Dobbs. Lawrence. My fingers are shaking as I type this sentence.

Jacksonville enters this game as nearly a full touchdown favorite, but the Jags will have to be careful with their longtime division rival. Yes, Tennessee has lost seven straight, and, yes, the Titans are technically on their third quarterback. But after watching Josh Dobbs last week against Dallas, it's clear that he gives Tennessee a better chance than Malik Willis to win this game. That doesn't mean Willis still can't be the long-term answer, but Dobbs can at least operate the offense and make the reads that Willis has struggled with – most recently against Houston in Week 16.

The Titans will also have a fairly significant rest advantage, having last played on Thursday, while Jacksonville played Sunday. Of course, many of the Jags' starters were pulled midway through the third quarter, but it's still a mark in favor of Tennessee, which gave Derrick Henry the night off against Dallas.

Ultimately, we need to remember that while Dobbs may give the Titans a better chance, he's still Josh Dobbs. And on the other side, the Jaguars have a quarterback who continues to get better and gain confidence on a weekly basis. Jacksonville should be able to control the game offensively, but I fully expect Henry to keep Tennessee in this game. 

When these teams faced off in Week 14, the Jaguars pulled away for a 36-22 victory, but the Titans controlled virtually the entire first half before ultimately succumbing to four killer turnovers. That turnover luck is highly unlikely to happen again, so while I won't pick against the Jags at Keenan McCardell Stadium, I'll take the Titans to make it uncomfortable throughout.

The pick: Jaguars 24 – Titans 20

Sunday Early Games

Baltimore Ravens (+7.0) at Cincinnati Bengals

While it remains to be seen whether Bills-Bengals will be resumed at some point, Cincinnati has to be prepared for that possibility, which means this is still very much a meaningful game. No matter what, a win over Baltimore clinches the AFC North and would put Cincy in position to potentially move up a seed or two depending on what happens with Buffalo and Kansas City. 

Coming off of the events of Monday night, this is obviously a unique spot for the Bengals, but from a pure football perspective, they should have somewhat of a rest advantage after playing half of a quarter against Buffalo. Of course, that fails to account for the mental and emotional toll of Monday night, which, frankly, is impossible to quantify.

On the Baltimore side, Tyler Huntley was once again pretty bad last week in a crushing loss to the Steelers. As of Wednesday, it remains completely unclear if Lamar Jackson will play in Week 18, though this line would imply that he's not expected back. If it is, indeed, Huntley under center again, I have a hard time trusting Baltimore to keep up.

Improved as the Ravens' defense may be, I'll side with the team that hasn't scored 13, 17, 3, 16 and 10 points over its last five games. Give me the Bengals to win and cover.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Ravens 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.0) at Atlanta Falcons

The Bucs locked up the NFC South with last week's win over Carolina, while the Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention since Week 16. Sitting at 8-8, the Bucs could not be more locked into the 4-seed in the NFC, so they have nothing to play for Sunday.

Later in the afternoon, however, Tampa will be keeping a close eye on both Philly and Dallas. If the Eagles take care of business as heavy favorites against the Giants, then the Bucs will host the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round. If Philadelphia somehow trips up, and the Cowboys beat Washington, then Tampa would welcome the Eagles to Warrick Dunn Field.

On the Falcons side, this game is all about continuing to evaluate Desmond Ridder, who picked up his first NFL victory last week against Arizona. Chances are, we won't come out of Week 18 with a definitive grade on the Cincinnati product, who's yet to record his first touchdown (rushing or passing).

Given the lack of stakes, this is a pretty major stay-away for me, but as of mid-week the Bucs are insisting that they'll play their starters for at least a portion of the game. Personally, I wouldn't count on seeing Tom Brady for more than a series or two, and once the starters are out of the game, anything can happen.

It's my professional obligation to make a pick here, so I'll resort to a cop-out and take Atlanta to win but the two-headed monster of Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask to cover.

The pick: Falcons 20 – Buccaneers 17

New England Patriots (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills

It goes without saying that this is an unprecedented position for the Bills, who will play less than a week after Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest during Monday night's game against Cincinnati. Attempting to assess how that incident will impact Sunday's game feels neither appropriate nor worthwhile, but we know for sure that the Bills -- as well as the Buffalo community -- will continue to rally around Hamlin.

From a strictly football perspective, the Bills have won three in a row against the Pats, including a 24-10 victory at New England earlier this season. Going back to 2021, Buffalo did lose The Wind Game in Week 13, but the Bills responded by winning the next two matchups (Week 16 and Wild Card Round) by a combined score of 80 to 38. 

I trust the Bills to find a way to refocus and win this game at home.

The pick: Bills 27 – Patriots 17

Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) at Chicago Bears

Nathan Peterman is starting for the Bears.

The pick: Vikings 30 – Bears 17

Houston Texans (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

This may look like an incredibly meaningless game on paper, but the Texans enter Week 18 with a chance to clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. If Houston loses (or if the Bears win), Houston would pick first for the fourth time in franchise history. The previous three picks? David Carr (2002), Mario Williams (2006) Jadeveon Clowney (2014).

On the other side, the Colts won't be terribly motivated to win this game either, though the result likely won't have much of an effect on their draft slot (currently 5th overall). Give Indianapolis credit for doing everything it could over the last six weeks to improve that positioning. During that six-game skid, the Colts have been outscored 97 to 3 in the fourth quarter. Since halftime of The Loss to Minnesota in Week 15, Indy has been outscored 97 to 16. Astonishing.

With Nick Foles sidelined, it'll be Sam Ehlinger making his return to the starting job for the first time since Week 9. Ehlinger came on in relief of Foles last week and finished 9-of-14 for 60 yards and a touchdown (1 rush, 12 yards) in garbage time. I remain mildly intrigued by what Ehlinger can bring to a sluggish Colts offense, but this game likely won't be the best measuring stick. 

In the end, both teams want to lose this game, but a loss would mean considerably more to the Texans – especially with the Bears waving the white flag starting Nathan Peterman. With that in mind, I'll take the Colts to cover at home and put a bow on a thoroughly bizarre 2022 season.

The pick: Colts 21 – Texans 17

New York Jets (-1.0) at Miami Dolphins

By virtue of losing four straight one-score games – and five straight overall – the Dolphins no longer control their own destiny. Miami is still alive for the postseason but needs a win over the Jets, plus a Patriots loss to the Bills, in order to snag a playoff spot. 

Both of those outcomes are well within reason, though the Dolphins may be forced to start Skylar Thompson. As of mid-week, Teddy Bridgewater (finger) has not been ruled out, but the Dolphins made an extremely troubling and foreboding transaction when they signed Mike Glennon to their practice squad Wednesday morning. 

To make matters worse, the Jets appear likely to play their regulars for at least most of the game. This week is completely meaningless for New York, but Robert Saleh intimated Wednesday that he doesn't expect his team to roll over.

Like the Dolphins, the Jets have dropped five in a row – including a pair of ultra-important games the last two weeks against Jacksonville and Seattle. The offense mustered nine total points in those losses and hasn't scored more than 17 since back in Week 13 against Minnesota. It's hard to see that changing this week, but if Miami is forced to roll with Thompson, the Dolphins will likely struggle to move the ball in their own right.

In the end, I'll give the slight edge to the team playing for a postseason spot, but I don't feel good about it whatsoever.

The pick: Dolphins 23 – Jets 21

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints

Had it not been for three incredibly costly turnovers last week in Tampa, the Panthers would be playing this game with a division title on the line. Alas, the dream of Carolina keeping the Buccaneers out of the postseason always felt a little too good to be true. If we're being honest, our decision to ride with Carolina to win outright was probably what sealed the deal.

Anway, this matchup against the Saints is now rendered meaningless, though New Orleans comes in with some momentum after beating the Eagles for their third straight victory. It's too little too late for New Orleans, but keep in mind that the Saints do not own their 2023 first-rounder (it goes to Philly, which makes last week's loss even worse), so they have zero reason to pull back in Week 18.

I fully expect Carolina to also play hard in what could be Steve Wilks' final game, but it's a fairly obvious letdown spot after allowing the season to slip away last week. Honestly, the loss of Jaycee Horn in Week 16 may have single handedly sunk the Panthers' playoff hopes. 

Give me the Saints to win a close game at home to finish with a four-game winning streak before they enter an offseason loaded with uncertainty. 

The pick: Saints 23 – Panthers 20

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is another meaningless game for Cleveland, but the lack of playoff implications certainly didn't stop the Browns from showing up last week to ruin the debut of Major Tuddy. 

After spending the last several days sorting through Thank You notes from Packers fans, Cleveland now has a chance to play spoiler for a second straight week – this time, to a division rival.

The Steelers are one of a handful of teams who feel like they should've been eliminated from the playoff race at least five weeks ago. And yet, after winning five of their last six, the Steelers are suddenly back to .500 and on the brink of an improbable run to the postseason. Pittsburgh does need some help, however. On top of beating Cleveland, the Steelers need the Bills to beat the Patriots and the Jets to beat the Dolphins. All three games will, of course, be happening concurrently.

The Steelers haven't been overly impressive during their recent run (17.2 PPG), and they've taken advantage of a favorable schedule, but the Browns are another very beat-able opponent. With a potential playoff spot – plus Mike Tomlin's non-losing season streak – on the line, I'm not betting against Pittsburgh.

The pick: Steelers 19 – Browns 16

Sunday Late Games

New York Giants (+14.0) at Philadelphia Eagles

With Jalen Hurts expected to return, the Giants locked into the No. 6 spot in the NFC and the Eagles needing this game to lock up the 1-seed, we're getting an inflated number – and rightfully so. The Giants have been a little cagey about how much – if at all – their regulars will play this week, but the number certainly implies that we won't see much of Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley or Kayvon Thibodeaux.

With Hurts coming off of the shoulder injury, he could have some rust to shake off, but assuming he'll be going against the Giants' backups for most of the day, it's difficult to picture Philly struggling – especially at home. These big numbers have been a thorn in our side all season, but with so much on the line, I can't help but side with Philadelphia to cover two touchdowns.

The pick: Eagles 31 – Giants 14

Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) at Washington Commanders

In Game 2 of the Major Tuddy Era, Washington no longer has anything to play for and will roll out rookie Sam Howell for his first NFL start. 

That's good news for the Cowboys, although I'm sure they would've been plenty comfortable going up against Carson Wentz or Taylor Heinicke. Either way, Dallas should be in a great spot to take care of business and remain alive for the NFC East title. The concern, however, is what will be transpiring in Philadelphia as this game unfolds. 

I fully expect the Cowboys to come out firing and take this game seriously, but if the Eagles are up three scores at halftime, it's entirely possible that Dallas could call off the dogs in the second half. It's also worth noting that Dallas had most of its starters last week against the Josh Dobbs Titans and only led 10-6 at the half.

With all of that said, even if Dallas does wave the white flag in the second, the Cowboys have one of the better backups in the league and solid depth throughout the roster. The jump from 5.5 to 7.5 makes me a little queasy, but I'll eat the points and side with the Cowboys.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Commanders 17

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) at Denver Broncos

The Chargers are officially in the playoffs, and the Broncos are definitely not, so there isn't a ton on the line here. However, the Chargers and Ravens are both currently 10-6, so a loss by LA could open the door for Baltimore to leap up from the 6-seed to the 5-seed in the AFC. 

Considering Kansas City, Buffalo and Cincinnati are likely to be the top-three seeds in some order, getting the 5 is a big deal, as it locks in a matchup against the Titans-Jaguars winner. Of course, I would argue that no one should want to play the steamroller that is the Jags right now, but the reality is absolutely no team is looking forward to facing any of the three AFC powers in the Wild Card round.

With that in mind, I think the Chargers play to win and leave their starters in the game as long as they need to. The Broncos have absolutely nothing to lose – their pick, currently No. 3 overall, goes to Seattle – so I see them hanging around at home, but I'll take the Chargers to win and narrowly cover.

The pick: Chargers 24 – Broncos 20

Arizona Cardinals (+14.0) at San Francisco 49ers

In many ways, this game is similar to Eagles-Giants, although unlike Philly, San Francisco doesn't control its own destiny for the 1-seed. The Niners are still alive for the first-round bye, however, and they'll likely need a win – assuming Minnesota beats Chicago – to maintain their grasp on the No. 2 seed, which means a guaranteed home game in the Divisional Round.

The Eagles-Giants game will be going on concurrently, but Vikings-Bears is in the early window, so the Niners will know the result before their game kicks off. In the event Chicago pulls off the upset, then San Francisco is locked into a top-2 seed, and the result of the Philly game – particularly if the Eagles are up big – could influence how Kyle Shanahan handles his starters. This is also Shanahan's closing argument in what's become a hotly contested Coach of the Year race.

With that in mind, this line becomes a little trickier, but ultimately the Bears beating Minnesota with Nathan Peterman is highly unlikely, so I'm inclined to believe we see the 49ers in full force for most of the game.

With David Blough starting again for Arizona, and DeAndre Hopkins already ruled out, it's hard to see the Cardinals finding a way to keep pace. What a send-off for JJ Watt.

The pick: 49ers 30 – Cardinals 13

Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks

I'll admit I don't know what to do with this game. We were on the Jets at Seattle last week, and suddenly, with zero notice whatsoever, the Seahawks reverted back to looking more like the team that got off to a 6-3 start. Are we fully ready to trust Seattle again? That I'm not sure about.

While Seattle lost the right to control its own destiny, this is still a very meaningful game. If Seattle loses, its playoff chances are gone. A win would keep the Seahawks alive for at least a few more hours, but they'd need Detroit to beat Green Bay in order to weasel their way into the playoffs as the 7-seed. That's more than enough motivation for Seattle, but the Rams, whose 2023 first-round pick goes to Detroit, would like nothing more than to play spoiler to a division rival.

The Rams have spent the last month alternating between looking frisky and looking terrible with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Last week was the latter, so logic dictates that they should swing back toward general liveliness in Seattle. 

I can't pick the Rams to win this game outright, but they can cover.

The pick: Seahawks 26 – Rams 21

Sunday Night Football

Detroit Lions (+4.5) at Green Bay Packers

There's been a decent amount of hand-wringing about the league's decision to flex this game into the Sunday Night window. The complaints are valid, as the Lions will know the result of the Rams-Seahawks game before taking the field in Green Bay. 

If the Seahawks lose – the ideal scenario for the NFL's TV interests – then this becomes a win-and-in game for both the Lions and Packers. But if the Seahawks win, the Lions cannot make the playoffs. I think the belief is that Detroit is going to play hard either way – a fair assumption, given this man's general vibe – but it's difficult to quantify exactly how a Seattle win would affect the Lions' mindset.

Regardless, this promises to be a memorable matchup between two divisional opponents who appear to be peaking at the right time. The Packers are coming off of their most convincing win of the season last week against Minnesota, while the Lions more than handled their business at home against the Bears. We know Detroit has been much better at Ford Field this season – only six of Jared Goff's 29 TD passes have come on the road – so the Packers should have a sizable advantage.

With that said, I fully expect Detroit to give Green Bay's defense all it can handle. The Packers have struggled to stop the run all season, and the Lions have one of the NFL's most creative and consistent ground attacks. If the Packers can hold up and force Goff into a turnover or two, they should be fine. Historically, Green Bay has taken care of business in these spots. Aaron Rodgers is 3-0 straight up in his career with a playoff spot on the line.

By the way, the Packers – who may not even make the playoffs – have lower Super Bowl odds than the Vikings at BetMGM:

While I remain hesitant to fully hitch my wagon to this Packers team – I did foolishly pick them to lose straight up last week – this feels like a game they can't lose at Lambeau Field. The Lions will show up and create some nervous energy in the bleachers, but I like Green Bay to rattle Goff and enter the postseason on a five-game winning streak.

The pick: Packers 27 – Lions 23