This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
It might feel like the final rounds of your Underdog NFL Best Ball drafts are inconsequential, but finishing strong is an important part of the winning process. Although the hit rate is much lower and the misses are less meaningful than when you miss in the early rounds, landing a late-round dart can give your squad a superpower element if you also nail the earlier picks. This article will look at the best bets to pay off in the final round, at picks 200.0 or later in the ADP.
Players are listed at each of QB/RB/WR/TE, but it's safe to say that wide receiver is the position with the easiest points in the 18th round.
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QUARTERBACK
Mac Jones, NE (210.0 Underdog ADP)
Jones will never be a high-octane passer in the NFL who carries an offense, but he should be a 17-game starter on a team with some of the best field positioning and time of possession variables in the league. Moreover, unlike a late-round option like Brock Purdy, Jones has a history of throwing 30- and 40-plus attempts in single games and holding up under the workload. Playing so often in enemy territory could get Jones' touchdown count surprisingly close to Purdy's and the yardage should be an easy advantage for Jones since the 49ers need to hide Purdy (30 or fewer pass attempts in six of eight starts) in order to win games. I personally feel totally comfortable with Jones as a QB2 so long as I have a strong QB1.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (202.0 Underdog ADP)
Tannehill strikes me as more risky than Jones, but there's still a way it could work in 2023. The low price is one key, and getting a strong QB1 on your roster is the other. Tannehill will not have pass attempt volume, for at least a few reasons. One is that the Titans obviously don't want to throw often, the second is that their defense should be good enough to grant them that luxury, and the third is that the Titans offensive line has four new starters and will likely fall apart under an ambitious, deep-dropping passing game. So Tannehill's pass attempt volume will be limited, and he'll be dependent on touchdown production or/and rushing production to prove useful as a best ball pick. Narrow as the path might be, it wouldn't be terribly shocking if Tannehill has both a healthy touchdown count and his customary rushing production, the latter of which was denied in 2022 due to ankle troubles.
RUNNING BACK
Keaontay Ingram, ARI (215.6 Underdog ADP)
Ingram will only see substantial playing time if James Conner (80.3 Underdog ADP) misses time, but clearly there is durability anxiety around Conner or else he'd go more around the fifth round than the 7th/8th turn. There's an intense thirst in the fantasy scene for handcuff targets at running back, yet Ingram goes completely ignored as the clear backup to Conner, a player the consensus worries will miss time.
Ingram (6-feet, 221 pounds) has a frame for volume and runs with the anchor/power you'd expect of someone with his build. His 4.59-second 40 shows he doesn't have long-range speed, but Ingram's short-area movement is generally good even before adjusting for his above-average weight (72nd percentile according to Mockdraftable); that point illustrated in his 10-yard split (1.55 seconds, 65th percentile) and broad jump (122 inches, 75th percentile).
There's a chance the Cardinals add a veteran running back to their roster, especially in light of the Achilles' tendon tear suffered by Marlon Mack, but players like Corey Clement, Ty'Son Williams and Emari Demercado probably can't keep Ingram off the field.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (202.1 Underdog ADP)
Isiah Pacheco (89.4 Underdog ADP) is the clear starter in Kansas City and should be back soon from his offseason shoulder surgery, which means Edwards-Helaire is liable to start the year as the Chiefs' RB3 behind Pacheco and passing-down specialist Jerick McKinnon (123.6 Underdog ADP). Not just that, but undrafted rookie Deneric Prince has consistently drawn praise in training camp and appears likely to make the team as the RB4. Prince is a lot like Pacheco – a runner over 215 pounds with sub-4.45 speed – and Prince has even received good reviews for his pass-catching ability.
Edwards-Helaire has always been good when healthy, though, and the team has an interest in rehabilitating his value a little bit as he heads into the last year of his rookie contract. If Pacheco is nicked up (and with his running style he may well continue to be) then Edwards-Helaire can step in and easily be a good starter in his place, so he's maybe not as far away from the field as it seems at a glance. Not just that, but Edwards-Helaire has to be on the short list of running backs who could get traded toward final cuts. He's too good to be off the field entirely, and plenty of teams need running back help as it is. Someone like Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Indianapolis, the Rams, New England or the Giants could use CEH as an upgrade over their current backups.
Honorable mention: Isaiah Spiller (LAC), Jordan Mason (SF), Latavius Murray (BUF), Deon Jackson (IND), Evan Hull (IND), Deneric Prince (KC)
WIDE RECEIVER
Josh Downs, IND (213.1 Underdog ADP)
The Colts have Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce ahead of Downs, and that's it. Isaiah McKenzie cannot compete with a talent like Downs, who will emerge as the clear slot receiver for the Colts by October at the latest. None of the Colts tight ends project as steady target options – even Jelani Woods (10.3 ADOT) runs too far downfield to draw targets at a rapid rate in base functions. The question isn't whether Downs is the third-leading pass catcher for the Colts, it's whether he's the second-leading behind Pittman.
Terrace Marshall, CAR (209.0 Underdog ADP)
Ignore Marshall's NFL stats. In 2021 he was used completely backward from what his abilities actually warrant, jammed into the slot role previously held by Curtis Samuel rather than running routes outside and downfield, which is Marshall's actual calling card. Somewhat skinny and less than rugged, Marshall's game was never going to work running into the teeth of the defense from the slot. The Panthers used him more outside and downfield in 2022, and Marshall's efficiency unsurprisingly improved a great deal – his YPT jumping to 10.4 from just 4.6 in 2021 – but the problem at that point was that the Panthers were running an almost wishbone-like offense and throwing the ball as little as possible. The selection of Bryce Young changes the second dynamic, even in Young's rookie year. Not just that, but Young's skill set as a passer is specifically a great match with Marshall's game. Young will need to make his money landing downfield tosses toward the sideline, where Marshall is uniquely good. Marshall will outproduce Jonathan Mingo (144.6 Underdog ADP) with ease.
Deonte Harty, BUF (215.8 Underdog ADP)
I probably have a little too much Harty, to be honest – it's just so easy to pair him with Khalil Shakir (188.1 Underdog ADP) to corner a nice chunk of the Buffalo passing game, and in proper Bills stacks Harty is always a nice bow on top in the 18th round. It's true that Harty cannot play a three-down role at 5-foot-6, 170 pounds, but it's also likely that he'll do a lot more damage per-snap than most receivers in the league. That's because (A) Harty is very good and (B) as a sub-package player the Bills will show more urgency in getting him usage than they do with the route runners who play 50-plus snaps. Harty will likely be capped at 35 snaps in any given game and will regularly fall short of that.
It's the same role Isaiah McKenzie had, when he was such a popular fantasy sleeper last year. The difference is that Harty is good. McKenzie was a dud for fantasy investors, but it wasn't the role that was the wrong part of the theory – it was the player. The theory and the player are both sound in Harty's 2023 case. Look at Harty's 2021 season. He played only 268 snaps, but he was incredibly productive on those snaps, drawing 59 targets and catching 36 for 570 yards and three touchdowns. That was good for four weeks of double-digit points in Underdog's 0.5PPR scoring. That was in the Saints offense, and now he plays for the Bills.
Michael Wilson, ARI (209.9 Underdog ADP)
As a prospect Wilson saw a mixed reaction from the fantasy football scene, with some looking more at the negatives and losing sight of the many positives. Wilson is over-aged as a prospect (~23.5) and never had headline-grabbing numbers at Stanford, which is an understandable concern when only stated as such. The additional context, though, makes clear that those concerns are not correctly applied in Wilson's case. The concern with an over-aged prospect is that is raises the possibility that their production was informed less by talent and more by the age advantage they held over their teammates and the defenders facing them.
That concern doesn't register with Wilson's case because, while he's old for his experience level, Wilson posted NFL-caliber production in his 2019 season, when he was only ~19.5. That's the age by which you want to see a receiver establish themselves as a standout producer, and Wilson did so by catching 56 of 84 targets for 672 yards and five touchdowns. The receptions and yardage led Stanford, even with older players like Colby Parkinson and Simi Fehoko playing on the same offense. Not just that, but Wilson's catch rate (66.7 percent) and YPT (8.0) both easily outclassed the Stanford base line of 62.2 percent completed at 7.1 yards per attempt. Anyone citing age as a concern for Wilson is wrong.
Wilson demonstrated his skill with his 2019 production. He demonstrated his tools conclusively at the combine. At 6-foot-2, 213 pounds (77th percentile according to Mockdraftable) he logged a 1.5-second 10-yard split (87th percentile) and excellent jumps (37.5-inch vertical, 125-inch broad jump). Wilson is clearly the Cardinals' top option for regular outside snaps at receiver. Marquise Brown (5-foot-9, 180 pounds) and Rondale Moore (5-foot-7, 181 pounds) can only line up outside in tight splits, and more likely the second on any given play will need a vacant slot rep to see the field.
Honorable mention: Joshua Palmer (LAC), Mecole Hardman (NYJ), Corey Davis (NYJ)
TIGHT END
Trey McBride, ARI (207.1 Underdog ADP)
The Cardinals are awful and they'll be losing constantly. Their quarterback play, meanwhile, appears unlikely to push the ball downfield with any consistent success. There might be a lot of checking down, in other words, and if so it would be McBride who stands most likely to pile up easy catches.
McBride was a solid prospect out of Colorado State, and the Cardinals' decision to select him in the second round should age fine, especially with previous roadblock Zach Ertz returning from a late-November ACL/MCL tear. Ertz has already been in an obvious state of decline for years, so throwing in a gnarly late-season knee injury should keep him out of the picture. At 6-foot-4, 245 pounds McBride logged a 4.56-second pro day 40, so with defenses acknowleging the deep speed of Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore there should be consistent opportunity for McBride to get comparatively easy targets closer to the quarterback. Not every week will be like McBride's Week 17 breakout against Atlanta, when he drew 10 targets on 66 snaps, catching seven for 78 yards and a touchdown, but some of them will.
Honorable mention: Hunter Henry (NE), Michael Mayer (LV), Jelani Woods (IND)
