Best Ball Strategy: Preseason Buy or Sell on Underdog

This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.

The NFL preseason breaks a painful fast for the fantasy football community, appearing as an emerald oasis in a desert of desperate hot takes and idle, maddened chatter. It's a welcome and relieving distraction to indulge this feeling, but it's important to remember that, like the waterfall witnessed by our delirious protagonist in this metaphor, the things we think we see in the preseason are more likely illusion than substance.

This article will look through some of the names generating ADP-shifting chatter after recent NFL preseason games, looking at each player and issuing either a Buy or Sell decision about the emerging preseason narrative around that player. Basically, this is a guide to whether you should believe the hype for these players on Underdog.

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Khalil Herbert, RB, CHI (94.1 Underdog ADP)

Herbert fell toward the double-digit rounds in the Underdog ADP earlier this offseason, but those days are gone. With the preseason's arrival the Chicago backfield has seemingly become clearer, especially after Herbert turned a checkdown pass into a 56-yard touchdown in Chicago's preseason opener against Tennessee. Herbert's ADP jumped following that game, revealing that some percentage of Underdog drafters did not consider Herbert the likely starting Chicago back prior to the game, but did following. Perhaps the sight of Herbert doing so well as a pass catcher also changed some projections, because it had been considered a weak area of Herbert's game previously.

It would probably be hasty to figure Herbert for an above-average receiver on the basis of that one preseason play, so if you need Herbert to meet that particular condition then he might not be for you. With that said, Herbert is definitely the clear top running back for Chicago, and as a pure runner he likely has standout ability. Herbert had no help at Kansas yet carried the offense anyway, and at Virginia Tech he averaged 7.7 yards per carry in his lone season. What Herbert has done at the NFL level (5.0 YPC over 232 carries) is exactly what he has always done, and by now there is no grounds to question Herbert's standout ability as a runner.

Herbert projects so strongly as a runner in a run-heavy Chicago offense that it should make him a threat to finish the year as a top-25 fantasy back. Herbert probably offers a higher floor than players like D'Andre Swift (84.7 Underdog ADP), Isiah Pacheco (89.6 Underdog ADP) and Dalvin Cook (93.0 Underdog ADP). The only real case against Herbert is that he lacks upside due to limited volume and pass-catching ability, but an inability to offer 30-point upside every week is not the same as being unable to offer startable weeks at a standout rate.

Verdict: Buy

Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT (118.6 Underdog ADP)

Although Warren can't displace Najee Harris as the top Pittsburgh running back, the unfortunate reality is injuries can affect any player, and it's something we have to consider about the running back market in particular when we build our best ball rosters. Among the category of 'handcuff' running backs – running backs who instantly become top values if the player ahead of them should miss time – Warren has one of the best profiles for scaling up workload volume.

It's easy to assume Warren for a third-down back at a glance – at 5-foot-8 with a stubby build he looks less than threatening – but at nearly 215 pounds he has a very dense build, and he demonstrated the ability to take on a workhorse burden at both Utah State and Oklahoma State in college. Because Warren is a natural pass catcher and can withstand a lot of hits, he's a strong bet to hold serve as a starting NFL running back if the emergency need should arise.

The hype for Warren, already picking up over the offseason, reached a deafening pitch when he ran for a 62-yard touchdown against Buffalo in Pittsburgh's preseason opener. Warren isn't normally a big-play back – the Bills' defense more so did poorly on the play – but Warren still executed the run perfectly for his own part. That detail, along with the volume-viable build, is the real calling card of Warren's. He's not the most gifted running back, but he can take a lot of hits and can handle all running back tasks at an adequate level or better.

Verdict: Buy

Marvin Mims, WR, DEN (133.4 Underdog ADP)

It's a shame that so much misfortune had to strike Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler for the path to open up ahead of Mims, but what's done is done. Jerry Jeudy landing in the week-to-week category with a hamstring issue makes Mims' arrival that much more unavoidable. Mims should not have fallen to Denver at the end of the second round, and now he has a wide berth with which to demonstrate his abilities.

Very few NFL receiver prospects produced as efficiently or explosively as Mims did at Oklahoma. His age-adjusted production – generally the best way to measure a prospect's innate skill level – was great, not good. 

The 50-yard catch he made in Denver's preseason game against the Rams is a play Mims made all the time at Oklahoma. With 4.38 speed he has the athletic tools to keep making that play at the NFL level.

Verdict: Buy

Jalin Hyatt, WR, NYG (159.9 Underdog ADP)

The preseason Hyatt hype is probably excessive. The Giants can't throw the ball that often and especially not often downfield, because Daniel Jones becomes a turnover machine at that point. The Giants can either hide Jones like they did in 2022 or they can 'unleash' him and watch the ensuing trainwreck. Neither scenario is one favorable for Hyatt, who otherwise has to fight for usage on an offense with Darren Waller and Saquon Barkley locked in as the centerpieces.

Even at wide receiver specifically, Hyatt has no conceivable route to regular fantasy utility. Darius Slayton is a bigger (6-foot-1, 190 pounds) and faster (4.39-second 40) version of whatever Hyatt might otherwise have going for him at 6-feet, 176 pounds with a 4.40-second 40. Isaiah Hodgins is still around too of course, and when eventually healthy Wan'Dale Robinson (knee) will draw targets at a rapid rate.

Hyatt has benefited from a great deal of preseason hype anyway, almost entirely due to a touchdown catch against the weak coverage of aging retread safety Eric Rowe. It's true that Hyatt had standout Jets corner Sauce Gardner beat deep on another play but (A) we already knew Hyatt could run 'go' routes – it's pretty much all he did at Tennessee aside from catch screens and (B) it was still preseason. The problem for Hyatt is that you can't scale up a go-route specialist, especially if they're only playing around 25 snaps per game in one of the league's worst passing offenses.

Verdict: Sell

Tank Dell, WR, HOU (176.3 Underdog ADP)

Dell has some amount of skill and should stick around the NFL a long time. The question of whether he'll ever be a useful fantasy asset is a different matter, and one with an objectively poor outlook.

You've undoubtedly heard all of the concerning data around NFL receivers under 170 pounds. The simple fact is that if you have to weigh less than 170 pounds to possess NFL-caliber speed then you don't have NFL-caliber speed at all. Dell ran his 4.49-second 40 at 165 pounds, which was bulked up from his listed college weight of 155 pounds. Dell probably has the athleticism necessary to threaten the underneath from spread formations, but he's not a candidate to line up outside or threaten downfield with any regularity. It would be different question if Dell had speed closer to 4.40 or better, but if it can't work for Tutu Atwell (4.39 pro day 40 at 155) then why would it turn out so much better for Dell?

Nico Collins and John Metchie are unambiguously better prospects than Dell, and unlike Dell they can stay on the field for three downs and through all formations. That's not to mention Robert Woods, who the Texans are paying too much to bench, nor progress-stopper Noah Brown.

Verdict: Sell

Josh Downs, WR, IND (211.2 Underdog ADP)

Downs' hype has picked up during the preseason after a bizarrely quiet offseason. The Colts only had Isaiah McKenzie at slot receiver all this time – extremely easy competition for a prospect on Downs' level – yet it took the preseason's arrival for more to take notice. Downs displaced McKenzie from the first team unit early in training camp, and the chatter since then has built up.

Whereas Downs often went undrafted previously, the rookie third-round pick is now gaining consideration as the potential second-leading target in the Colts offense. Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce are of course the top two receivers for the Colts in terms of snaps, but Pierce is the one of the three most likely to get stuck with decoy work and a high ADOT. Depth of target is inversely correlated to targets per snap. Pierce will play many more snaps than Downs, in other words, but Downs might end up with more targets anyway because Downs' routes could be as little as half the ADOT of Pierce's routes.

Downs was one of the best college football receivers of the past couple decades, producing at a blistering pace for North Carolina despite poor size (5-foot-9, 171 pounds). Downs ended his true freshman year with four catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns in a bowl game against Texas A&M, and from then onward he went completely bonkers, drawing 268 targets and catching 196 receptions for 2,373 yards and 19 touchdowns (73.1 percent catch rate, 8.9 YPT) in his next 24 games. This is not a player to be doubted.

Verdict: Buy

Deonte Harty, WR, BUF (214.9 Underdog ADP)

Harty is not a candidate to play a three-down role at around just 5-foot-6, 170 pounds, but it seems that he's the preferred third wide receiver for Buffalo during passing situations because he's seen the most WR3 snaps with the Bills' first-team offense in the preseason. That makes a lot of sense, because the Bills previously set aside a major role for Isaiah McKenzie in the slot, yet Harty is a much better player than McKenzie.

Whereas McKenzie is mostly a screen and handoff candidate, Harty can run real routes at any depth. Harty is a monster after the catch on underneath routes, and on deeper routes he presents a unique separation threat. McKenzie had the YAC ability on short routes but no vertical presence whatsoever.

If you want a preview of Harty's 2023 season then look at his 2021 production with the Saints. Harty only played 268 snaps in 13 games yet produced an outrageous 36 receptions for 570 yards and three touchdowns on 59 targets, with another 41 yards on the ground on five carries. Again, while Harty can only play so many snaps he can easily offset this at his Underdog ADP because he can be so singularly productive on a per-snap basis. That Saints offense was dreadful, completing just 61.8 percent of its targets at 7.3 YPT, yet Harty caught 61.0 percent of his targets at 9.7 YPT. Harty scored double-digit 0.5PPR points in four games that year despite only playing 13 games.

Verdict: Buy

Rico Dowdle, RB, DAL (215.6 Underdog ADP)

Dowdle has all the momentum right now in the race to be the RB2 on the Dallas depth chart behind Tony Pollard. The former South Carolina standout is a special teams staple for the Cowboys and otherwise offers a rugged rushing skill set supplemented by good athleticism (4.54-second 40, 38-inch vertical jump, 127-inch broad jump at 213 pounds).

Dowdle has been the primary running back to play with the Dallas second team, both in training camp and in Dallas' preseason games. These facts indicate that Dowdle is safely ahead of Malik Davis, who had previously been the consensus presumption to serve as the RB2 in Dallas. (That opinion was never shared by this writer, however).

The problem for Dowdle as a fantasy target is that, while he might be the first off the bench behind Pollard, Dowdle won't get much more work in the event that Pollard were unavailable. Dowdle's workload does not scale up at all, for a few reasons. The first reason is that Dowdle has had consistent injury troubles throughout his career, both in the NFL and at South Carolina. The second is that Dowdle has an extensive history of fumbling, a concern raised again recently by his fumble in Dallas' preseason opener against Jacksonville. The third reason is that Dowdle is probably one of the worst pass catchers among all NFL running backs.

With concerns regarding all of durability, ball security and passing-down viability it's clear that Dowdle cannot play 30-plus snaps in an NFL game with any regularity. In the event that Pollard were unavailable Dowdle's workload would likely remain close to the same, with any number or combination of Deuce Vaughn, Ronald Jones, Hunter Luepke and/or Malik Davis getting involved at that point.

Verdict: Sell