This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills Expert Bets for NFL Week 16
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Greetings from the frigid upper Midwest where the weather has been and will continue to be the story for the next few days. I'm back to cover this week's game in Chicago between OUR Bears and the explosive Buffalo Bills. My Best Bets record stands at 7-2 after Week 13's winner on the over. Let's see what is in store for Saturday's game at Soldier Field.
Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds for Week 16
The look-ahead line for this game was 10 in favor of Buffalo, but a combination of the weather forecast and HEAVY action on the Bears as moved this into the 8/8.5 range, depending on where you shop. Chicago is seeing 61% of the bets and a whopping 94% of the money so far. Currently, the Bills are as low as -375 at PointsBet on the moneyline while the Bears are as high as +320 at both FanDuel and DraftKings. The total opened at a weather-adjusted 41 and has settled in at 40.5 in most places.
Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Picks This Week
By now, you know that I've been all over the overs during our successful run this season. The Bears are not a good defensive team and since they have transformed to feature Justin Fields' legs, the offense has been tough to stop. Much has been said about Buffalo's prowess through the air, but their run game is formidable as well with Devin Singletary and James Cook leading the way and big hoss Josh Allen unafraid to get out and run. These are both good things for a game like this, where the game time temp is forecasted to be 10 degrees with a 22mph wind making it feel like -10. I think the total has been adjusted far too much and I'm sticking with my guns and making the over my best bet for this game. Often, the actual weather doesn't match the hype and the national perception that this will be played in a blizzard is going to be off. Yes, it will be cold and windy, but both these teams are used to those conditions. At the opening line of 10, I would have had a lean towards the Bears. With the correction, I have no lean on the side or moneyline.
Bears vs. Bills Best Bet: OVER 40 (@ PointsBet)
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Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
The weather has only made me adjust this total about a FG. Under perfect conditions, I'd expect the total to be around 50, so I expected to see a line around 47 and maybe as low as 45. So far this year, Buffalo has tended to start slow and gain momentum with adjustments throughout the game. With the conditions, I expect a conservative feeling out process to start, so perhaps a 1Q under bet might be attractive. Perhaps a couple of long drives by each team resulting in short FGs and a 3-3 start. The Bills adjust but Justin Fields' chunk plays keeps the Bears in striking distance at 17-10 at half. Buffalo continues their relentless attack in the third quarter, extending the lead out to 31-10 and we have our over before the 4th quarter even starts.
